Estimating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on mumps incidence in Sichuan, China

Evaluating the long-term impact of COVID-19-associated public health interventions on zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in China: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

The long-term impact of COVID-19-associated public health interventions on zoonotic and vector-borne infectious diseases (ZVBs) remains uncertain. This study sought to examine the changes in ZVBs in China during the COVID-19 pandemic and predict their future trends.

METHODS

Monthly incidents of seven ZVBs (Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome [HFRS], Rabies, Dengue fever [DF], Human brucellosis [HB], Leptospirosis, Malaria, and Schistosomiasis) were gathered from January 2004 to July 2023. An autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) by incorporating the COVID-19-associated public health intervention variables was developed to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of interventions and forecast ZVBs epidemics from August 2023 to December 2025.

RESULTS

Over the study period, there were 1,599,647 ZVBs incidents. HFRS and rabies exhibited declining trends, HB showed an upward trajectory, while the others remained relatively stable. The ARFIMA, incorporating a pulse pattern, estimated the average monthly number of changes of - 83 (95% confidence interval [CI] - 353-189) cases, - 3 (95% CI - 33-29) cases, - 468 (95% CI - 1531-597) cases, 2191 (95% CI 1056-3326) cases, 7 (95% CI - 24-38) cases, - 84 (95% CI - 222-55) cases, and - 214 (95% CI - 1036-608) cases for HFRS, rabies, DF, HB, leptospirosis, malaria, and schistosomiasis, respectively, although these changes were not statistically significant besides HB. ARFIMA predicted a decrease in HB cases between August 2023 and December 2025, while indicating a relative plateau for the others.

CONCLUSIONS

China's dynamic zero COVID-19 strategy may have exerted a lasting influence on HFRS, rabies, DF, malaria, and schistosomiasis, beyond immediate consequences, but not affect HB and leptospirosis. ARFIMA emerges as a potent tool for intervention analysis, providing valuable insights into the sustained effectiveness of interventions. Consequently, the application of ARFIMA contributes to informed decision-making, the design of effective interventions, and advancements across various fields.

The decline in immunity and circulation of pertussis among Chinese population during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional sero-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

In recent years, the resurgence of pertussis has posed a public health challenge in many countries. This study aimed to evaluate the immunity levels against pertussis among populations of different ages in China.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional serological survey in Zhejiang Province, China in 2020. Serum IgG antibodies against pertussis toxin (anti-PT), filamentous hemagglutinin (anti-FHA), and pertactin (anti-PRN) were quantitatively measured. The geometric mean concentration (GMC) of three antibodies was calculated. An anti-PT level < 5 IU/mL was considered undetectable, ≥20 IU/mL as seropositive and ≥80 IU/mL as an indicator of recent infection. Mathematical models were fitted for anti-PT concentrations over time in children after four doses of the pertussis vaccination.

RESULTS

A total of 4459 participants aged 0-59 years were included in the analyses. The overall positivity rate of anti-PT was 29.80% with the highest (81.44%) rate in the 1-2 years old and the lowest (4.72%) in 10-14 years old. The GMCs of anti-PT, anti-FHA and anti-PRN for the whole participants were 9.67 (95%CI: 9.25-10.10),18.93 (18.24-19.67), and 8.99 (8.61-9.38) IU/mL, respectively. Over 50% of subjects aged ≥ 7 years had undetectable anti-PT IgG antibodies (<5IU/mL). The proportions of the populations with anti-PT IgG ≥ 80 IU/mL were approximately 0.9%, 0.3% and 1.1% among the 10-14, 15-29, and 40-59 years old groups, respectively. The power regression equation of the attenuation model after last dose of pertussis vaccine was y = 41.088x^-1.238 (R² = 0.935, p < 0.001). The fitted anti-PT concentrations was only 5.60 IU/mL at 5 years following the last vaccination dose.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of pertussis decreased during the study period in the COVID-19 pandemic; however, there was still a certain proportion of adolescents and adults with evidence of recent infection. The decline in antibody levels after pertussis vaccination was observed, and booster doses are in urgent need in China.