Past, present, and future trends of overweight and obesity in Belgium using Bayesian age-period-cohort models

Covariate dependent Markov chains constructed with gradient boost modeling can effectively generate long-term predictions of obesity trends

IMPORTANCE

The prevalence of obesity among United States adults has increased from 30.5% in 1999 to 41.9% in 2020. However, despite the recognition of long-term weight gain as an important public health issue, there is a paucity of studies studying the long-term weight gain and building models for long-term projection.

METHODS

A retrospective, cross-sectional cohort study using the publicly available National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2017-2020) was conducted in patients who completed the weight questionnaire and had accurate data for both weight at time of survey and weight ten years ago. Multistate gradient boost modeling classifiers were used to generate covariate dependent transition matrices and Markov chains were utilized for multistate modeling.

RESULTS

Of the 6146 patients that met the inclusion criteria, 3024 (49%) of patients were male and 3122 (51%) of patients were female. There were 2252 (37%) White patients, 1257 (20%) Hispanic patients, 1636 (37%) Black patients, and 739 (12%) Asian patients. The average BMI was 30.16 (SD = 7.15), the average weight was 83.67 kilos (SD = 22.04), and the average weight change was a 3.27 kg (SD = 14.97) increase in body weight (Fig. 1). A total of 2411 (39%) patients lost weight, and 3735 (61%) patients gained weight (Table 1). We observed that 87 (1%) of patients were underweight (BMI < 18.5), 2058 (33%) were normal weight (18.5 ≤ BMI < 25), 1376 (22%) were overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30) and 2625 (43%) were obese (BMI > 30). From analysis of the transitions between normal/underweight, overweight, and obese, we observed that after 10 years, of the patients who were underweight, 65% stayed underweight, 32% became normal weight, 2% became overweight, and 2% became obese. After 10 years, of the patients who were normal weight, 3% became underweight, 78% stayed normal weight, 17% became overweight, and 2% became obese. Of the patients who were overweight, 71% stayed overweight, 0% became underweight, 14% became normal weight, and 15% became obese. Of the patients who were obese, 84% stayed obese, 0% became underweight, 1% became normal weight, and 14% became overweight.

CONCLUSIONS

United States adults are at risk of transitioning from normal weight to becoming overweight or obese. Covariate dependent Markov chains constructed with gradient boost modeling can effectively generate long-term predictions.

Mexican Plants Involved in Glucose Homeostasis and Body Weight Control: Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Obesity is defined as abnormal or excessive fat accumulation, provoking many different diseases, such as obesity and type 2 diabetes. Type 2 diabetes is a chronic-degenerative disease characterized by increased blood glucose levels. Obesity and type 2 diabetes are currently considered public health problems, and their prevalence has increased over the last few years. Because of the high cost involved in the treatment of both diseases, different alternatives have been sought. However, the general population uses medicinal plants, in the form of tea or infusions, to treat different diseases. Therefore, traditional medicine using medicinal plants has been investigated as a possible treatment for type 2 diabetes and body weight control.

AIM OF THE STUDY

The purpose of this review is to find medicinal plants used in Mexico that could exert their beneficial effect by regulating insulin secretion and body weight control.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

For the development of this review, Mexican plants used in traditional medicine to treat type 2 diabetes and body weight control were searched in PubMed, Google Scholar, and Scopus. The inclusion criteria include plants that presented a significant reduction in blood glucose levels and/or an increase in insulin secretion.

RESULTS

We found 306 Mexican plants with hypoglycemic effects. However, plants that did not show evidence of an increase in insulin secretion were eliminated. Finally, only five plants were included in this review: Momordica charantia L. (melón amargo), Cucurbita ficifolia bouché (chilacayote), Coriandrum sativum L. (cilantro), Persea americana Mill. (aguacate) Bidens pilosa (amor seco), including 39 articles in total. Here, we summarized the plant extracts (aqueous and organic) that have previously been reported to present hypoglycemic effects, body weight control, increased secretion and sensitivity of insulin, improvement of pancreatic β cells, and glucose tolerance. Additionally, these effects may be due to different bioactive compounds present in the plants' extracts.

CONCLUSION

Both in vivo and in vitro studies are required to understand the mechanism of action of these plant extracts regarding insulin secretion to be used as a possible treatment for type 2 diabetes and body weight control in the future.

Long-Time Trend of Colorectal Cancer Mortality Attributable to High Processed Meat Intake in China and a Bayesian Projection from 2020 to 2030: A Model-Based Study

Colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer worldwide. Processed meat was known to be positively associated with a higher risk of gastrointestinal cancer. This study focused on the long-time trends of colorectal cancer mortality attributable to high processed meat intake in China from 1990 to 2019 and the projection for the next decade based on data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used an age-period-cohort model to fit the long-time trend. The joinpoint model was conducted to estimate the average and annual change of the attributable mortality. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the crude attributable mortality from 2020 to 2030. An upward trend in colorectal cancer mortality attributable to high processed meat intake was observed for both sexes in China from 1990 to 2019, with an overall net drift of 4.009% for males and 2.491% for females per year. Projection analysis suggested that the burden of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality would still be high. Our findings suggested that colorectal cancer death attributable to high processed meat intake is still high in China, and elderly males were at higher risk. Gradually decreasing the intake of processed meat could be an effective way to reduce colorectal cancer mortality.