Prediction model for the onset risk of impaired fasting glucose: a 10-year longitudinal retrospective cohort health check-up study

Predictive model for early detection of type 2 diabetes using patients' clinical symptoms, demographic features, and knowledge of diabetes

Background and Aims

With the global rise in type 2 diabetes, predictive modeling has become crucial for early detection, particularly in populations with low routine medical checkup profiles. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for type 2 diabetes using health check-up data focusing on clinical details, demographic features, biochemical markers, and diabetes knowledge.

Methods

Data from 444 Nigerian patients were collected and analysed. We used 80% of this data set for training, and the remaining 20% for testing. Multivariable penalized logistic regression was employed to predict the disease onset, incorporating waist-hip ratio (WHR), triglycerides (TG), catalase, and atherogenic indices of plasma (AIP).

Results

The predictive model demonstrated high accuracy, with an area under the curve of 99% (95% CI = 97%-100%) for the training set and 94% (95% CI = 89%-99%) for the test set. Notably, an increase in WHR (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 70.35; 95% CI = 10.04-493.1, p-value < 0.001) and elevated AIP (AOR = 4.55; 95% CI = 1.48-13.95, p-value = 0.008) levels were significantly associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, while higher catalase levels (AOR = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.22-0.49, p < 0.001) correlated with a decreased risk. In contrast, TG levels (AOR = 1.04; 95% CI = 0.40-2.71, p-value = 0.94) were not associated with the disease.

Conclusion

This study emphasizes the importance of using distinct clinical and biochemical markers for early type 2 diabetes detection in Nigeria, reflecting global trends in diabetes modeling, and highlighting the need for context-specific methods. The development of a web application based on these results aims to facilitate the early identification of individuals at risk, potentially reducing health complications, and improving diabetes management strategies in diverse settings.

Performance of a prediabetes risk prediction model: A systematic review

Backgrounds

The prediabetes population is large and easily overlooked because of the lack of obvious symptoms, which can progress to diabetes. Early screening and targeted interventions can substantially reduce the rate of conversion of prediabetes to diabetes. Therefore, this study systematically reviewed prediabetes risk prediction models, performed a summary and quality evaluation, and aimed to recommend the optimal model.

Methods

We systematically searched five databases (Cochrane, PubMed, Embase, Web Of Science, and CNKI) for published literature related to prediabetes risk prediction models and excluded preprints, duplicate publications, reviews, editorials, and other studies, with a search time frame of March 01, 2023. Data were categorized and summarized using a standardized data extraction form that extracted data including author; publication date; study design; country; demographic characteristics; assessment tool name; sample size; study type; and model-related indicators. The PROBAST tool was used to assess the risk of bias profile of included studies.

Findings

14 studies with a total of 15 models were eventually included in the systematic review. We found that the most common predictors of models were age, family history of diabetes, gender, history of hypertension, and BMI. Most of the studies (83.3%) had a high risk of bias, mainly related to under-reporting of outcome information and poor methodological design during the development and validation of models. Due to the low quality of included studies, the evidence for predictive validity of the available models is unclear.

Interpretation

We should pay attention to the early screening of prediabetes patients and give timely pharmacological and lifestyle interventions. The predictive performance of the existing model is not satisfactory, and the model building process can be standardized and external validation can be added to improve the accuracy of the model in the future.

Construction and Validation of a Model for Predicting Impaired Fasting Glucose Based on More Than 4000 General Population

Purpose

Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) is associated with an increased risk of multiple diseases. Therefore, the early identification and intervention of IFG are particularly significant. Our study aims to construct and validate a clinical and laboratory-based nomogram (CLN) model for predicting IFG risk.

Patients and Methods

This cross-sectional study collected information on health check-up subjects. Risk predictors were screened mainly by the LASSO regression analysis and were applied to construct the CLN model. Furthermore, we showed examples of applications. Then, the accuracy of the CLN model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values, and the calibration curve of the CLN model in the training set and validation set, respectively. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to estimate the level of clinical benefit. Furthermore, the performance of the CLN model was evaluated in the independent validation dataset.

Results

In the model development dataset, 2340 subjects were randomly assigned to the training set (N = 1638) and validation set (N = 702). Six predictors significantly associated with IFG were screened and used in the construction of the CLN model, a subject was randomly selected, and the risk of developing IFG was predicted to be 83.6% by using the CLN model. The AUC values of the CLN model were 0.783 in the training set and 0.789 in the validation set. The calibration curve demonstrated good concordance. DCA showed that the CLN model has good clinical application. We further performed independent validation (N = 1875), showed an AUC of 0.801, with the good agreement and clinical diagnostic value.

Conclusion

We developed and validated the CLN model that could predict the risk of IFG in the general population. It not only facilitates the diagnosis and treatment of IFG but also helps to reduce the medical and economic burdens of IFG-related diseases.

A Deep Learning-Based Model for Predicting Abnormal Liver Function in Workers in the Automotive Manufacturing Industry: A Cross-Sectional Survey in Chongqing, China

To identify the influencing factors and develop a predictive model for the risk of abnormal liver function in the automotive manufacturing industry works in Chongqing. Automotive manufacturing workers in Chongqing city surveyed during 2019-2021 were used as the study subjects. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the influencing factors of abnormal liver function. A restricted cubic spline model was used to further explore the influence of the length of service. Finally, a deep neural network-based model for predicting the risk of abnormal liver function among workers was developed. Of all 6087 study subjects, a total of 1018 (16.7%) cases were detected with abnormal liver function. Increased BMI, length of service, DBP, SBP, and being male were independent risk factors for abnormal liver function. The risk of abnormal liver function rises sharply with increasing length of service below 10 years. AUC values of the model were 0.764 (95% CI: 0.746-0.783) and 0.756 (95% CI: 0.727-0.786) in the training and test sets, respectively. The other four evaluation indices of the DNN model also achieved good values.

Prognostic value of preoperative diabetes mellitus in patients with non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms

BACKGROUND

The main aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and prognostic value of preoperative diabetes mellitus (DM) in patients with non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (NF-PNENs).

METHODS

Data were retrospectively collected from 190 patients with NF-PNENs from January 2009 to December 2019 in a single center.

RESULTS

The prevalence of longstanding DM, new-onset DM and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) was 11.6% (22/190), 8.4% (16/190), and 25.8% (49/190), respectively. Regression analysis showed that tumor size, tumor grade and lymph node metastasis were risk factors for new-onset DM and IFG. Multivariate survival analysis demonstrated preoperative new-onset DM (hazard ratio [HR], 4.33; P = 0.009) and IFG (HR, 4.53; P = 0.027) as independent predictors of poor recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with NF-PNENs.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative new-onset DM and IFG are associated with aggressive tumor behavior and poor RFS in patients with NF-PNENs.