Combining symbolic regression with the Cox proportional hazards model improves prediction of heart failure deaths

Predicting weight loss success on a new Nordic diet: an untargeted multi-platform metabolomics and machine learning approach

Background and aim

Results from randomized controlled trials indicate that no single diet performs better than other for all people living with obesity. Regardless of the diet plan, there is always large inter-individual variability in weight changes, with some individuals losing weight and some not losing or even gaining weight. This raises the possibility that, for different individuals, the optimal diet for successful weight loss may differ. The current study utilized machine learning to build a predictive model for successful weight loss in subjects with overweight or obesity on a New Nordic Diet (NND).

Methods

Ninety-one subjects consumed an NND ad libitum for 26 weeks. Based on their weight loss, individuals were classified as responders (weight loss ≥5%, n = 46) or non-responders (weight loss <2%, n = 24). We used clinical baseline data combined with baseline urine and plasma untargeted metabolomics data from two different analytical platforms, resulting in a data set including 2,766 features, and employed symbolic regression (QLattice) to develop a predictive model for weight loss success.

Results

There were no differences in clinical parameters at baseline between responders and non-responders, except age (47 ± 13 vs. 39 ± 11 years, respectively, p = 0.009). The final predictive model for weight loss contained adipic acid and argininic acid from urine (both metabolites were found at lower levels in responders) and generalized from the training (AUC 0.88) to the test set (AUC 0.81). Responders were also able to maintain a weight loss of 4.3% in a 12 month follow-up period.

Conclusion

We identified a model containing two metabolites that were able to predict the likelihood of achieving a clinically significant weight loss on an ad libitum NND. This work demonstrates that models based on an untargeted multi-platform metabolomics approach can be used to optimize precision dietary treatment for obesity.

Improvement of a prediction model for heart failure survival through explainable artificial intelligence

Cardiovascular diseases and their associated disorder of heart failure (HF) are major causes of death globally, making it a priority for doctors to detect and predict their onset and medical consequences. Artificial Intelligence (AI) allows doctors to discover clinical indicators and enhance their diagnoses and treatments. Specifically, "eXplainable AI" (XAI) offers tools to improve the clinical prediction models that experience poor interpretability of their results. This work presents an explainability analysis and evaluation of two HF survival prediction models using a dataset that includes 299 patients who have experienced HF. The first model utilizes survival analysis, considering death events and time as target features, while the second model approaches the problem as a classification task to predict death. The model employs an optimization data workflow pipeline capable of selecting the best machine learning algorithm as well as the optimal collection of features. Moreover, different post hoc techniques have been used for the explainability analysis of the model. The main contribution of this paper is an explainability-driven approach to select the best HF survival prediction model balancing prediction performance and explainability. Therefore, the most balanced explainable prediction models are Survival Gradient Boosting model for the survival analysis and Random Forest for the classification approach with a c-index of 0.714 and balanced accuracy of 0.74 (std 0.03) respectively. The selection of features by the SCI-XAI in the two models is similar where "serum_creatinine", "ejection_fraction", and "sex" are selected in both approaches, with the addition of "diabetes" for the survival analysis model. Moreover, the application of post hoc XAI techniques also confirm common findings from both approaches by placing the "serum_creatinine" as the most relevant feature for the predicted outcome, followed by "ejection_fraction". The explainable prediction models for HF survival presented in this paper would improve the further adoption of clinical prediction models by providing doctors with insights to better understand the reasoning behind usually "black-box" AI clinical solutions and make more reasonable and data-driven decisions.

Artificial Intelligence in Physical Sciences: Symbolic Regression Trends and Perspectives

Symbolic regression (SR) is a machine learning-based regression method based on genetic programming principles that integrates techniques and processes from heterogeneous scientific fields and is capable of providing analytical equations purely from data. This remarkable characteristic diminishes the need to incorporate prior knowledge about the investigated system. SR can spot profound and elucidate ambiguous relations that can be generalizable, applicable, explainable and span over most scientific, technological, economical, and social principles. In this review, current state of the art is documented, technical and physical characteristics of SR are presented, the available programming techniques are investigated, fields of application are explored, and future perspectives are discussed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11831-023-09922-z.

More than a Feeling: Dermatological Changes Impacted by Spaceflight

Spaceflight poses a unique set of challenges to humans and the hostile Spaceflight environment can induce a wide range of increased health risks, including dermatological issues. The biology driving the frequency of skin issues in astronauts is currently not well understood. To address this issue, we used a systems biology approach utilizing NASA's Open Science Data Repository (OSDR) on spaceflown murine transcriptomic datasets focused on the skin, biomedical profiles from fifty NASA astronauts, and confirmation via transcriptomic data from JAXA astronauts, the NASA Twins Study, and the first civilian commercial mission, Inspiration4. Key biological changes related to skin health, DNA damage & repair, and mitochondrial dysregulation were determined to be involved with skin health risks during Spaceflight. Additionally, a machine learning model was utilized to determine key genes driving Spaceflight response in the skin. These results can be used for determining potential countermeasures to mitigate Spaceflight damage to the skin.