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Sbarra AN, Jit M, Mosser JF, Ferrari M, Cutts F, Papania M, Kretsinger K, McCarthy KA, Thakkar N, Gaythorpe KAM, Gamage D, Krause LK, Dansereau E, Crowcroft N, Portnoy A. Population-Level Risk Factors Related to Measles Case Fatality: A Conceptual Framework Based on Expert Consultation and Literature Review. Vaccines (Basel) 2023; 11:1389. [PMID: 37631957 PMCID: PMC10458804 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines11081389] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2023] [Revised: 08/14/2023] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 08/29/2023] Open
Abstract
A better understanding of population-level factors related to measles case fatality is needed to estimate measles mortality burden and impact of interventions such as vaccination. This study aimed to develop a conceptual framework of mechanisms associated with measles case fatality ratios (CFRs) and assess the scope of evidence available for related indicators. Using expert consultation, we developed a conceptual framework of mechanisms associated with measles CFR and identified population-level indicators potentially associated with each mechanism. We conducted a literature review by searching PubMed on 31 October 2021 to determine the scope of evidence for the expert-identified indicators. Studies were included if they contained evidence of an association between an indicator and CFR and were excluded if they were from non-human studies or reported non-original data. Included studies were assessed for study quality. Expert consultation identified five mechanisms in a conceptual framework of factors related to measles CFR. We identified 3772 studies for review and found 49 studies showing at least one significant association with CFR for 15 indicators (average household size, educational attainment, first- and second-dose coverage of measles-containing vaccine, human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, level of health care available, stunting prevalence, surrounding conflict, travel time to major city or settlement, travel time to nearest health care facility, under-five mortality rate, underweight prevalence, vitamin A deficiency prevalence, vitamin A treatment, and general malnutrition) and only non-significant associations for five indicators (antibiotic use for measles-related pneumonia, malaria prevalence, percent living in urban settings, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination coverage, vitamin A supplementation). Our study used expert consultation and a literature review to provide additional insights and a summary of the available evidence of these underlying mechanisms and indicators that could inform future measles CFR estimations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alyssa N. Sbarra
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Mark Jit
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Jonathan F. Mosser
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Matthew Ferrari
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USA
| | - Felicity Cutts
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Mark Papania
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA
| | - Katrina Kretsinger
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA
| | - Kevin A. McCarthy
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Niket Thakkar
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Katy A. M. Gaythorpe
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BX, UK
| | - Deepa Gamage
- Epidemiology Unit, Ministry of Health, Colombo 01000, Sri Lanka
| | - L. Kendall Krause
- Global Development Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Emily Dansereau
- Global Development Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Natasha Crowcroft
- Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals, World Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Allison Portnoy
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA
- Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
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Sbarra AN, Mosser JF, Jit M, Ferrari M, Ramshaw RE, O'Connor P, Krause LK, Rogowski ELB, Portnoy A. Estimating national-level measles case-fatality ratios in low-income and middle-income countries: an updated systematic review and modelling study. Lancet Glob Health 2023; 11:e516-e524. [PMID: 36925172 PMCID: PMC10030458 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(23)00043-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2022] [Revised: 01/05/2023] [Accepted: 01/12/2023] [Indexed: 03/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND To understand the current measles mortality burden, and to mitigate the future burden, it is crucial to have robust estimates of measles case fatalities. Estimates of measles case-fatality ratios (CFRs) that are specific to age, location, and time are essential to capture variations in underlying population-level factors, such as vaccination coverage and measles incidence, which contribute to increases or decreases in CFRs. In this study, we updated estimates of measles CFRs by expanding upon previous systematic reviews and implementing a meta-regression model. Our objective was to use all information available to estimate measles CFRs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) by country, age, and year. METHODS For this systematic review and meta-regression modelling study, we searched PubMed on Dec 31, 2020 for all available primary data published from Jan 1, 1980 to Dec 31, 2020, on measles cases and fatalities occurring up to Dec 31, 2019 in LMICs. We included studies that previous systematic reviews had included or which contained primary data on measles cases and deaths from hospital-based, community-based, or surveillance-based reports, including outbreak investigations. We excluded studies that were not in humans, or reported only data that were only non-primary, or on restricted populations (eg, people living with HIV), or on long-term measles mortality (eg, death from subacute sclerosing panencephalitis), and studies that did not include country-level data or relevant information on measles cases and deaths, or were for a high-income country. We extracted summary data on measles cases and measles deaths from studies that fitted our inclusion and exclusion criteria. Using these data and a suite of covariates related to measles CFRs, we implemented a Bayesian meta-regression model to produce estimates of measles CFRs from 1990 to 2019 by location and age group. This study was not registered with PROSPERO or otherwise. FINDINGS We identified 2705 records, of which 208 sources contained information on both measles cases and measles deaths in LMICS and were included in the review. Between 1990 and 2019, CFRs substantially decreased in both community-based and hospital-based settings, with consistent patterns across age groups. For people aged 0-34 years, we estimated a mean CFR for 2019 of 1·32% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·28-1·36) among community-based settings and 5·35% (5·08-5·64) among hospital-based settings. We estimated the 2019 CFR in community-based settings to be 3·03% (UI 2·89-3·16) for those younger than 1 year, 1·63% (1·58-1·68) for age 1-4 years, 0·84% (0·80-0·87) for age 5-9 years, and 0·67% (0·64-0·70) for age 10-14 years. INTERPRETATION Although CFRs have declined between 1990 and 2019, there are still large heterogeneities across locations and ages. One limitation of this systematic review is that we were unable to assess measles CFR among particular populations, such as refugees and internally displaced people. Our updated methodological framework and estimates could be used to evaluate the effect of measles control and vaccination programmes on reducing the preventable measles mortality burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and the US National Institutes of Health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alyssa N Sbarra
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Jonathan F Mosser
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Mark Jit
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Ferrari
- Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Rebecca E Ramshaw
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Patrick O'Connor
- Department of Immunization, Vaccines, and Biologicals, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - L Kendall Krause
- Global Development Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Emma L B Rogowski
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Allison Portnoy
- Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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