The impact of alcohol taxation increase on all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania: an interrupted time series analysis

Interpretation of coefficients in segmented regression for interrupted time series analyses

BACKGROUND

Segmented regression, a common model for interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, primarily utilizes two equation parametrizations. Interpretations of coefficients vary between the two segmented regression parametrizations, leading to occasional user misinterpretations.

METHODS

To illustrate differences in coefficient interpretation between two common parametrizations of segmented regression in ITS analysis, we derived analytical results and present an illustration evaluating the impact of a smoking regulation policy in Italy using a publicly accessible dataset. Estimated coefficients and their standard errors were obtained using two commonly used parametrizations for segmented regression with continuous outcomes. We clarified coefficient interpretations and intervention effect calculations.

RESULTS

Our investigation revealed that both parametrizations represent the same model. However, due to differences in parametrization, the immediate effect of the intervention is estimated differently under the two approaches. The key difference lies in the interpretation of the coefficient related to the binary indicator for intervention implementation, impacting the calculation of the immediate effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Two common parametrizations of segmented regression represent the same model but have different interpretations of a key coefficient. Researchers employing either parametrization should exercise caution when interpreting coefficients and calculating intervention effects.

Educational attainment as a potential effect modifier of alcohol use and 100% alcohol-attributable mortality in the United States-A longitudinal analysis of mortality linked survey data from 1997 to 2018

AIMS

To measure effects between educational attainment and alcohol use as a driver of unequal alcohol-attributable mortality.

DESIGN

Nation-wide cohort study using a longitudinal design, linking data from the 1997-2018 National Health Interview Survey to mortality data of the National Death Index in 2019. The study has an average follow-up time of 10.7 years (SD = 6.4).

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Nationally representative sample of adults aged 25 years and older.

MEASUREMENTS

The outcome was time to 100% alcohol-attributable mortality, censored or last presumed alive by 31 December 2019. Socioeconomic status was operationalized via educational attainment; alcohol use was self-reported and operationalized using a categorical measure with lifetime abstainers as reference category.

FINDINGS

Of a total of 562 632 adults, 901 (635 men and 266 women) died during follow-up from a 100% alcohol-attributable cause of death [15 per 100 000 person years (PY)]. We found a strong interaction effect between low education and Category III alcohol use (>60 g and >40 g per day for men and women, respectively), which was of additive nature as shown by the Aalen's additive hazards model, with 83.68 additional deaths per 100 000 PY (95% confidence interval = 16.48-150.87) found in individuals with low education with Category III drinking compared with a situation when there was no interaction between the two risk factors. A large and statistically significant relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) of 32.05 from the Cox model supported the interaction. For individuals with low education, the risk associated with Category III drinking was double that for those with high education.

CONCLUSIONS

In the United States, people with combined low education and high alcohol consumption (>60 g/day for men, >40 g/day for women) appear to have a higher risk of 100% alcohol-attributable mortality compared with other combinations of educational attainment and drinking.

The impact of Covid-19 on harm reduction policies in Iran: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

The global emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019 posed unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems, disrupting routine services and necessitating swift adaptations. Harm reduction programs, vital for addressing substance use-related health risks, faced unique challenges during the pandemic, impacting vulnerable populations. This study focuses on the repercussions of Covid-19 on harm reduction policies in Iran, specifically examining the distribution of condoms, syringes, and methadone to high-risk individuals attending Triangle Centers.

AIM

The study aims to assess the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on harm reduction services in Iran and provide evidence-based insights for policy adjustments. Using Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA), the research analyzes trends in the distribution of condoms, syringes, and methadone before and after the official declaration of the pandemic in February 2020.

METHOD

ITSA, a valuable tool for evaluating program impacts, was employed to analyze data collected from Triangle Centers in Lorestan Province, Iran. Monthly records of harm reduction services (condoms, syringes, methadone) from January 2017 to February 2023 were extracted. The pre-intervention period spanned January 2017 to January 2020, with the post-intervention period extending from February 2020 to February 2023. Statistical analyses were conducted using the Newey-West technique, Combi-Huizinga autocorrelation test, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, with a significance threshold set at P-value < 0.05.

RESULTS

Following the onset of Covid-19, the level change in condom distribution to high-risk individuals showed a significant decline, decreasing by 2,168.87 units per month (95% CI: -2,405.57 to -1,932.15). Methadone dispensation, crucial for opioid harm reduction, also witnessed a substantial level change, decreasing by 5,007.60 cc per month (95% CI: -6,251.75 to -3,763.45). Additionally, the provision of syringes decreased significantly, with a level change of -601.01 units per month (95% CI: -706.39 to -495.62).

CONCLUSION

This study reveals significant disruptions in harm reduction services in Iran post-Covid-19, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions. Factors such as fear, stigma, resource reallocation, and logistical challenges contribute to the observed decreases. Policymakers must prioritize sustaining harm reduction services during pandemics, ensuring continuity for vulnerable populations. The findings underscore the importance of proactive policy development and preparedness to prevent delays and inequalities in accessing essential services for individuals with high-risk behaviors. Overall, integrating harm reduction into pandemic planning is crucial for a resilient and equitable health system.

Structural Stigma, Racism, and Sexism Studies on Substance Use and Mental Health: A Review of Measures and Designs

PURPOSE

Most research on the structural determinants of substance use and mental health has centered around widely studied factors such as alcohol taxes, tobacco control policies, essential/precursor chemical regulations, neighborhood/city characteristics, and immigration policies. Other structural determinants exist, however, many of which are being identified in the emerging fields of structural stigma, structural racism, and structural sexism. This narrative review surveys the measures and designs used in substance use and mental health studies from these three fields.

SEARCH METHODS

The PubMed, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases were searched on May 11, 2023. A focused search approach used terminology for structural racism, stigma, or sexism combined with terminology for substance use or mental health. Peer-reviewed studies were included if they were written in English and assessed associations between objective structural measures and substance use and mental health outcomes.

SEARCH RESULTS

Of 2,536 studies identified, 2,487 were excluded. Forty-nine studies (30 related to stigma, 16 related to racism, and three related to sexism) met the inclusion criteria. Information was abstracted about the structural measures, outcome measures, research design, sample, and findings of each study.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The structural determinant measures used in the studies reviewed were diverse. They addressed, for example, community opinions, the gender of legislators, economic vulnerability, financial loan discrimination, college policies, law enforcement, historical trauma, and legislative protections for sexual and gender minorities and for reproductive rights. Most of the structural determinant measures were constructed by combining multiple indicators into indexes or by merging indexes into composite indexes, although some studies relied on single indicators alone. The substance use and mental health outcome measures most frequently examined were related to alcohol and depression, respectively. The studies were conducted in numerous nations and drew samples from an array of groups, including, for example, patients who experienced overdoses from substance use, sexual and gender minorities, racial and ethnic minority groups, women, youth, migrants, and patients subject to involuntary psychiatric hospitalization. Most of the studies used passive-observational (correlational) research designs and, as a result, did not assess whether their structural determinant variables were causally related to substance use and mental health. Nevertheless, the studies reviewed can be used by public health proponents to foster awareness that a wide range of structural determinants correlate with the substance use and mental health of many groups within and across nations.

Alcohol control policy and alcohol-attributable disease burden in Finland and the Baltic countries: A longitudinal study 1995-2019

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol remains a significant contributor to mortality and morbidity in Finland and the Baltic countries, particularly among men. This study aimed to assess alcohol policy restrictiveness in this region from 1995 to 2019 using a modified version of the Bridging the Gap (BtG-M) policy scale and examine its association with alcohol-related disease burden.

METHODS

The study utilised national laws to score policy restrictiveness (higher BtG-M scores mean stricter policies) and age-standardised rates of disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost, years lived with disability and deaths per 100,000 from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Spearman correlation tests and panel data regression models were applied to assess the association between policy score and burden of disease.

RESULTS

Finland maintained a high BtG-M score, while the Baltic countries experienced recent increases from initially lower scores. Alcohol-related disease burden showed an inverse association with policy changes in these countries. Strongest association was seen between the BtG-M score and DALY rates attributed to injuries. Premature mortality among men constituted the largest proportion of disease burden.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Despite challenges in accessing and comparing policy data over time, we showed a strong association between alcohol policy and alcohol-related harm in Finland and the Baltic countries. This study is one of the first to use the BtG-M scale to monitor changes in alcohol policies over time and their relationship to alcohol-related harm using GBD methodology. The study highlights the effects of national alcohol policies on levels of alcohol-related harm.

Alcohol, No Ordinary Commodity: policy implications for Canada

Alcohol is a favorite psychoactive substance of Canadians. It is also a leading risk factor for death and disability, playing a causal role in a broad spectrum of health and social issues. Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity is a collaborative, integrative review of the scientific literature. This paper describes the epidemiology of alcohol use and current state of alcohol policy in Canada, best practices in policy identified by the third edition of Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity, and the implications for the development of effective alcohol policy in Canada. Best practices - strongly supported by the evidence, highly effective in reducing harm, and relatively low-cost to implement - have been identified. Measures that control affordability, limit availability, and restrict marketing would reduce population levels of alcohol consumption and the burden of disease attributable to it.

Trends of alcohol-attributable deaths in Lithuania 2001-2021: epidemiology and policy conclusions

BACKGROUND

Lithuania, a Baltic country in the European Union, can be characterized by high alcohol consumption and attributable burden. The aim of this contribution is to estimate the mortality burden due to alcohol use for the past two decades based on different relative risk functions, identify trends, and analyse the associations of alcohol-attributable burden with alcohol control policies and life expectancy.

METHODS

The standard methodology used by the World Health Organization for estimating alcohol-attributable mortality was employed to generate mortality rates for alcohol-attributable mortality, standardized for Lithuania's 2021 population distribution. Joinpoint analysis, T-tests, correlations, and regression analyses including meta-regressions were used to describe trends and associations.

RESULTS

Age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality was high in Lithuania during the two decades between 2001 and 2021, irrespective of which relative risks were used for the estimates. Overall, there was a downward trend, mainly in males, which was associated with four years of intensive implementation of alcohol control policies in 2008, 2009, 2017, and 2018. For the remaining years, the rates of alcohol-attributable mortality were stagnant. Among males, the correlations between alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy were 0.90 and 0.76 for Russian and global relative risks respectively, and regression analyses indicated a significant association between changes in alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy, after controlling for gross domestic product.

CONCLUSIONS

Male mortality and life expectancy in Lithuania were closely linked to alcohol-attributable mortality and markedly associated with strong alcohol control policies. Further implementation of such policies is predicted to lead to further improvements in life expectancy.

Interpretation of coefficients in segmented regression for interrupted time series analyses

Background

Segmented regression, a common model for interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, primarily utilizes two equation parametrizations. Interpretations of coefficients vary between the two segmented regression parametrizations, leading to occasional user misinterpretations.

Methods

To illustrate differences in coefficient interpretation between two common parametrizations of segmented regression in ITS analysis, we derived analytical results and present an illustration evaluating the impact of a smoking regulation policy in Italy using a publicly accessible dataset. Estimated coefficients and their standard errors were obtained using two commonly used parametrizations for segmented regression with continuous outcomes. We clarified coefficient interpretations and intervention effect calculations.

Results

Our investigation revealed that both parametrizations represent the same model. However, due to differences in parametrization, the immediate effect of the intervention is estimated differently under the two approaches. The key difference lies in the interpretation of the coefficient related to the binary indicator for intervention implementation, impacting the calculation of the immediate effect.

Conclusions

Two common parametrizations of segmented regression represent the same model but have different interpretations of a key coefficient. Researchers employing either parametrization should exercise caution when interpreting coefficients and calculating intervention effects.

Impact of the WHO "best buys" for alcohol policy on consumption and health in the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020

Alcohol use is a major risk factor for burden of disease. This narrative review aims to document the effects of major alcohol control policies, in particular taxation increases and availability restrictions in the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) between 2000 and 2020. These measures have been successful in curbing alcohol sales, in general without increasing consumption of alcoholic beverages from unrecorded sources; although for more recent changes this may have been partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, findings from time-series analyses suggest improved health, measured as reductions in all-cause and alcohol-attributable mortality, as well as narrowing absolute mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated groups. For most outcomes, there were sex differences observed, with alcohol control policies more strongly affecting males. In contrast to this successful path, alcohol control policies were mostly dismantled in the neighbouring country of Poland, resulting in a rising death toll due to liver cirrhosis and other alcohol-attributable deaths. The natural experiment in this region of high-income European countries with high consumption levels highlights the importance of effective alcohol control policies for improving population health.

Reducing alcohol use through alcohol control policies in the general population and population subgroups: a systematic review and meta-analysis

We estimate the effects of alcohol taxation, minimum unit pricing (MUP), and restricted temporal availability on overall alcohol consumption and review their differential impact across sociodemographic groups. Web of Science, Medline, PsycInfo, Embase, and EconLit were searched on 08/12/2022 and 09/26/2022 for studies on newly introduced or changed alcohol policies published between 2000 and 2022 (Prospero registration: CRD42022339791). We combined data using random-effects meta-analyses. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Of 1887 reports, 36 were eligible. Doubling alcohol taxes or introducing MUP (Int$ 0.90/10 g of pure alcohol) reduced consumption by 10% (for taxation: 95% prediction intervals [PI]: -18.5%, -1.2%; for MUP: 95% PI: -28.2%, 5.8%), restricting alcohol sales by one day a week reduced consumption by 3.6% (95% PI: -7.2%, -0.1%). Substantial between-study heterogeneity contributes to high levels of uncertainty and must be considered in interpretation. Pricing policies resulted in greater consumption changes among low-income alcohol users, while results were inconclusive for other socioeconomic indicators, gender, and racial and ethnic groups. Research is needed on the differential impact of alcohol policies, particularly for groups bearing a disproportionate alcohol-attributable health burden.

Funding

Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01AA028009.

An exploration of stakeholder views and perceptions on taxing tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for nearly 43% of Ghana's all-cause mortality. Unhealthy commodities (such as alcohol, sugar and tobacco) are an important factor in the growing NCD burden in the region of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Despite health taxes on tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) gaining renewed attention, adoption and implementation in SSA remain limited. This study aims to unpack the contextual politics and to examine current perceptions of opportunities and barriers for health taxes in Ghana.

METHODS

Semistructured qualitative interviews (n=19) conducted with purposively sampled stakeholders representing four sectors: government, civil society, media and international organisations, and two group interviews with nine industry stakeholders, informed by a review of relevant literature and policy/advocacy documents.

RESULTS

Stakeholders had a general belief that such taxes are primarily useful for revenue generation (for health spending) rather than for reducing consumption and improving health. There do appear to be opportunities for health taxes with stakeholders broadly supportive of taxing SSBs. This support could be strengthened via 'health' framing of any new tax proposals, the generation of Ghana-specific evidence about the potential impacts of such taxes and greater public awareness. Industry actors and some government representatives opposed health taxes, citing concerns about the potential to increase illicit trade and economic harm. Some stakeholders also believed that links between politicians and affected industries represent an important barrier.

CONCLUSION

These findings identify opportunities to introduce health taxes but also underline the potential resistance from affected industry stakeholders. Nevertheless, a strategic approach that focuses on achieving policy coherence (between central government, health and economic ministries), combined with efforts to strengthen stakeholder and public support, may weaken the lobbying position of industry. Such efforts could be supported by research to help demonstrate the value of different designs of health taxes for achieving Ghana's health goals and to better understand industry-political links.