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Ledesma JR, Ma J, Zhang M, Basting AVL, Chu HT, Vongpradith A, Novotney A, LeGrand KE, Xu YY, Dai X, Nicholson SI, Stafford LK, Carter A, Ross JM, Abbastabar H, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abrha WA, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Addo IY, Adepoju AV, Adhikari K, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework A, Aghamiri S, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad D, Ahmad S, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed H, Ahmed M, Ahmed A, Akinosoglou K, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alam N, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Al-Gheethi AAS, Ali A, Ali EA, Ali L, Ali Z, Ali SSS, Allel K, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amani R, Amusa GA, Amzat J, Andrews JR, Anil A, Anwer R, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Artamonov AA, Aruleba RT, Asemahagn MA, Atre SR, Aujayeb A, Azadi D, Azadnajafabad S, Azzam AY, Badar M, Badiye AD, Bagherieh S, Bahadorikhalili S, Baig AA, Banach M, Banik B, Bardhan M, Barqawi HJ, Basharat Z, Baskaran P, Basu S, Beiranvand M, Belete MA, Belew MA, Belgaumi UI, Beloukas A, Bettencourt PJG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhat V, Bhatti JS, Bhatti GK, Bikbov B, Bitra VR, Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Camargos P, Cao Y, Carr S, Carvalho F, Cegolon L, Cenderadewi M, Cevik M, Chahine Y, Chattu VK, Ching PR, Chopra H, Chung E, Claassens MM, Coberly K, Cruz-Martins N, Dabo B, Dadana S, Dadras O, Darban I, Darega Gela J, Darwesh AM, Dashti M, Demessa BH, Demisse B, Demissie S, Derese AMA, Deribe K, Desai HD, Devanbu VGC, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhingra S, Do THP, Dongarwar D, Dsouza HL, Dube J, Dziedzic AM, Ed-Dra A, Efendi F, Effendi DE, Eftekharimehrabad A, Ekadinata N, Ekundayo TC, Elhadi M, Elilo LT, Emeto TI, Engelbert Bain L, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Feizkhah A, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Gaipov A, Gandhi AP, Gautam RK, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebrekidan KG, Ghaffari K, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Goodridge A, Goyal A, Guan SY, Gudeta MD, Guled RA, Gultom NB, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta S, Hagins H, Hailu SG, Hailu WB, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Harapan H, Hasan RS, Hassan S, Haubold J, Hezam K, Hong SH, Horita N, Hossain MB, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Huynh HH, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Islam MR, Ismail NE, Ismail F, Jafarzadeh A, Jakovljevic M, Jalili M, Janodia MD, Jomehzadeh N, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kabir Z, Kamble BD, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kanmodi KK, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Karimi Behnagh A, Kassa GG, Kaur RJ, Kaur N, Khajuria H, Khamesipour F, Khan YH, Khan MN, Khan Suheb MZ, Khatab K, Khatami F, Kim MS, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kulimbet M, Kumar N, Lal DK, Landires I, Latief K, Le TDT, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee SW, Lerango TL, Lim SS, Liu C, Liu X, Lopukhov PD, Luo H, Lv H, Mahajan PB, Mahboobipour AA, Majeed A, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik MSA, Malinga LA, Mallhi TH, Manilal A, Martinez-Guerra BA, Martins-Melo FR, Marzo RR, Masoumi-Asl H, Mathur V, Maude RJ, Mehrotra R, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Merza MA, Mestrovic T, Mhlanga L, Misra S, Misra AK, Mithra P, Moazen B, Mohammed H, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moore CE, Mousavi P, Mulita F, Musaigwa F, Muthusamy R, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Nair S, Nair TS, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negash H, Nguyen DH, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Odetokun IA, Odo DBO, Odukoya OO, Oh IH, Okereke CO, Okonji OC, Oren E, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Osuagwu UL, Ouyahia A, P A MP, Parija PP, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Patil S, Pawar S, Peng M, Pepito VCF, Peprah P, Perdigão J, Perico N, Pham HT, Postma MJ, Prabhu ARA, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Rahim F, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmati M, Rajaa S, Ramasamy SK, Rao IR, Rao SJ, Rapaka D, Rashid AM, Ratan ZA, Ravikumar N, Rawaf S, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Remuzzi G, Reyes LF, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rezahosseini O, Rodrigues M, Roy P, Ruela GDA, Sabour S, Saddik B, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Sahebkar A, Sahiledengle B, Sahoo SS, Salam N, Salami AA, Saleem S, Saleh MA, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samodra YL, Sanjeev RK, Saravanan A, Sawyer SM, Selvaraj S, Senapati S, Senthilkumaran S, Shah PA, Shahid S, Shaikh MA, Sham S, Shamshirgaran MA, Shanawaz M, Sharath M, Sherchan SP, Shetty RS, Shirzad-Aski H, Shittu A, Siddig EE, Silva JP, Singh S, Singh P, Singh H, Singh JA, Siraj MS, Siswanto S, Solanki R, Solomon Y, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Srivastava VK, Steiropoulos P, Swain CK, Tabuchi T, Tampa M, Tamuzi JJLL, Tat NY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Teklay G, Tesfaye EG, Tessema B, Thangaraju P, Thapar R, Thum CCC, Ticoalu JHV, Tleyjeh IM, Tobe-Gai R, Toma TM, Tram KH, Udoakang AJ, Umar TP, Umeokonkwo CD, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, van Boven JFM, Varthya SB, Wang Z, Warsame MSA, Westerman R, Wonde TE, Yaghoubi S, Yi S, Yiğit V, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zakham F, Zangiabadian M, Zeukeng F, Zhang H, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zielińska M, Salomon JA, Reiner Jr RC, Naghavi M, Vos T, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Kyu HH. Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2024:S1473-3099(24)00007-0. [PMID: 38518787 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00007-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2023] [Revised: 12/09/2023] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 03/24/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020. METHODS We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data. FINDINGS We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths. INTERPRETATION Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Ledesma JR, Basting A, Chu HT, Ma J, Zhang M, Vongpradith A, Novotney A, Dalos J, Zheng P, Murray CJL, Kyu HH. Global-, Regional-, and National-Level Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Diagnoses, 2020-2021. Microorganisms 2023; 11:2191. [PMID: 37764035 PMCID: PMC10536333 DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms11092191] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2023] [Revised: 08/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Evaluating cross-country variability on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis (TB) may provide urgent inputs to control programs as countries recover from the pandemic. We compared expected TB notifications, modeled using trends in annual TB notifications from 2013-2019, with observed TB notifications to compute the observed to expected (OE) ratios for 170 countries. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to identify the covariates, out of 27 pandemic- and tuberculosis-relevant variables, that had the strongest explanatory power for log OE ratios. The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a 1.55 million (95% CI: 1.26-1.85, 21.0% [17.5-24.6%]) decrease in TB diagnoses in 2020 and a 1.28 million (0.90-1.76, 16.6% [12.1-21.2%]) decrease in 2021 at a global level. India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and China contributed the most to the global declines for both years, while sub-Saharan Africa achieved pre-pandemic levels by 2021 (OE ratio = 1.02 [0.99-1.05]). Age-stratified analyses revealed that the ≥ 65-year-old age group experienced greater relative declines in TB diagnoses compared with the under 65-year-old age group in 2020 (RR = 0.88 [0.81-0.96]) and 2021 (RR = 0.88 [0.79-0.98]) globally. Covariates found to be associated with all-age OE ratios in 2020 were age-standardized smoking prevalence in 2019 (β = 0.973 [0.957-990]), school closures (β = 0.988 [0.977-0.998]), stay-at-home orders (β = 0.993 [0.985-1.00]), SARS-CoV-2 infection rate (β = 0.991 [0.987-0.996]), and proportion of population ≥65 years (β = 0.971 [0.944-0.999]). Further research is needed to clarify the extent to which the observed declines in TB diagnoses were attributable to disruptions in health services, decreases in TB transmission, and COVID-19 mortality among TB patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jorge R. Ledesma
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (J.R.L.); (A.B.); (H.T.C.); (M.Z.); (A.V.); (A.N.); (J.D.); (P.Z.); (C.J.L.M.)
- Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, 121 S Main St, Providence, RI 02912, USA
| | - Ann Basting
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (J.R.L.); (A.B.); (H.T.C.); (M.Z.); (A.V.); (A.N.); (J.D.); (P.Z.); (C.J.L.M.)
| | - Huong T. Chu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (J.R.L.); (A.B.); (H.T.C.); (M.Z.); (A.V.); (A.N.); (J.D.); (P.Z.); (C.J.L.M.)
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Jianing Ma
- Center for Biostatistics, Department of Biomedical Informatics, The Ohio State University, 1800 Cannon Drive, Columbus, OH 43210, USA;
| | - Meixin Zhang
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (J.R.L.); (A.B.); (H.T.C.); (M.Z.); (A.V.); (A.N.); (J.D.); (P.Z.); (C.J.L.M.)
| | - Avina Vongpradith
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (J.R.L.); (A.B.); (H.T.C.); (M.Z.); (A.V.); (A.N.); (J.D.); (P.Z.); (C.J.L.M.)
| | - Amanda Novotney
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (J.R.L.); (A.B.); (H.T.C.); (M.Z.); (A.V.); (A.N.); (J.D.); (P.Z.); (C.J.L.M.)
| | - Jeremy Dalos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (J.R.L.); (A.B.); (H.T.C.); (M.Z.); (A.V.); (A.N.); (J.D.); (P.Z.); (C.J.L.M.)
| | - Peng Zheng
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (J.R.L.); (A.B.); (H.T.C.); (M.Z.); (A.V.); (A.N.); (J.D.); (P.Z.); (C.J.L.M.)
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Christopher J. L. Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (J.R.L.); (A.B.); (H.T.C.); (M.Z.); (A.V.); (A.N.); (J.D.); (P.Z.); (C.J.L.M.)
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Hmwe H. Kyu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (J.R.L.); (A.B.); (H.T.C.); (M.Z.); (A.V.); (A.N.); (J.D.); (P.Z.); (C.J.L.M.)
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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