An insight to better understanding cross border malaria in Saudi Arabia

Malaria during COVID-19 Travel Restrictions in Makkah, Saudi Arabia

Malaria is a parasitic infection that may result in an acute, life-threatening illness. It is a major public health problem in the tropical world. The disease is caused by the parasites of the genus Plasmodium and is transmitted by female Anopheles mosquitoes. Saudi Arabia is in the elimination phase of malaria control. Several parts of Saudi Arabia report cases of imported malaria among travelers and visitors. The city of Makkah in Saudi Arabia has a population of about 2.3 million. Moreover, over 6 million religious visitors from different parts of the world visit Makkah annually. During the COVID-19 outbreak, travel restrictions were enforced in Makkah to contain the spread of COVID-19. We compare the total reported cases of malaria in Makkah before, during, and after COVID-19 travel restrictions in this retrospective cross-sectional study. Data on demographics, clinical data, and laboratory parameters were collected from the medical records of the Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. The annual malaria incidence rates in Makkah were 29.13/million people (2018), 37.82/million people (2019), 15.65/million people (2020), 12.61/million people (2021), and 48.69/million people (2022). Most of the malaria cases in Makkah were caused by Plasmodium falciparum, followed by P. vivax. Sudan, Nigeria, Yamen, Pakistan, and India are the top five countries contributing to malaria cases in Makkah. Weekly malaria case analyses revealed that COVID-19-related travel restrictions resulted in zero malaria cases in Makkah, indicating the magnitude of the travel-related malaria burden in the city.

Quantitative Forecasting of Malaria Parasite Using Machine Learning Models: MLR, ANN, ANFIS and Random Forest

Malaria continues to be a major barrier to socioeconomic development in Africa, where its death rate is over 90%. The predictive power of many machine learning models-such as multi-linear regression (MLR), artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs) and Random Forest classifier-is investigated in this study using data from 2207 patients. The dataset was reduced from the initial dataset of thirty-two criteria samples to fifteen. Assessment measures such as the root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and adjusted correlation coefficient R were used. ANFIS, Random Forest, MLR, and ANN are among the models. After training, ANN outperforms ANFIS (97%), MLR (92%), and Random Forest (68%) with the greatest R (99%) and R2 (99%), respectively. The testing stage confirms the superiority of ANN. The paper also presents a statistical forecasting sheet with few errors and excellent accuracy for MLR models. When the models are assessed with Random Forest, the latter shows the least results, thus broadening the modeling techniques and offering significant insights into the prediction of malaria and healthcare decision making. The outcomes of using machine learning models for precise and efficient illness prediction add to an expanding body of knowledge, assisting healthcare systems in making better decisions and allocating resources more effectively.

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Malaria in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a significant public health concern in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria in the KSA between 2017 and 2021.

METHODS

A spatial analysis was conducted using data for malaria cases stratified by Plasmodium species reported by the Ministry of Health for the period 2017-2021. Covariate data such as environmental, socioeconomic, and demographic factors were assembled from different publicly available sources.

RESULTS

A total of 13,852 cases were reported from 20 regions in the KSA during the study period. The study indicated a decline in the overall number of reported cases from 2715 in 2017 to 2616 in 2021, primarily driven by a decrease in Plasmodium falciparum infections. However, the number of Plasmodium vivax cases increased in 2021. Southern regions of the KSA remained at higher risk due to imported cases from neighboring Yemen. Socioeconomic and demographic factors, such as access to healthcare and education, were found to affect malaria transmission. Environmental factors, such as temperature and rainfall, were also identified as determinants of malaria risk.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed significant spatial variation in malaria cases in the KSA that was related to underlying socioeconomic status and environmental factors. The findings of this study highlight the need for continued efforts to control and eliminate malaria in the KSA, particularly in regions with higher risk of malaria.

Prevalence of Plasmodium species in Badr Governorate, Madinah Province, Saudi Arabia using microscopy and rapid diagnostic test

Malaria infection still represents a notable public health risk in Saudi Arabia. This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the prevalence of Plasmodium species among clinically suspected cases who presented at Badr General Hospital and healthcare facilities in selected regions of Badr Governorate, Madinah Province, Saudi Arabia between January 2021 and January 2022. A total of 493 suspected patients were recruited from Badr Governorate, investigated for malaria infection using CBFME and rapid diagnostic test- CareStart Malaria Pf/PAN (HRP2/pLDH) Ag Combo rapid diagnostic tests. The results showed that malaria infection was 34 (6.89%) cases among 493 suspected patients using microscopic examination as reference test. Moreover, subjects aged 31 to 40 years and those aged 51 to 60 years had the highest (50%) and lowest (8.82%) percentages of malaria cases. Plasmodium vivax (19/34, 55.88%) was higher than P falciparum (15/34, 44.1%) as the causative agents of malaria cases. The majority of malaria cases (29/34, 80.9%) among non-Saudi mainly from Sudan (15/34, 44.1%), Pakistan (5/34, 14.7%), Bangladesh (5/34, 14.7%) and India (4/34, 11.76%) whereas malaria cases among Saudis (5/34, 14.7%). In addition, the majority of malaria cases (32/34, 94.11%) among male subjects while (2/34, 5.88%) among females. The current study revealed that malaria transmission is still active in Badr Governorate, Madinah Province, Saudi Arabia and represents a public health concern. Further screening implements and continuous epidemiological monitor of the status of malaria infection in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are thus warranted to improve its controlling activities and eradicate malaria endemicity in the country.

A Surge in Malaria Cases in the Eastern Health Region of Saudi Arabia During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background Malaria transmission was stopped on most of the vast area of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. However, the pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has negatively affected the efforts to control malaria. For instance, COVID-19 was reported to induce a relapse of malaria that is caused by Plasmodium vivax. Furthermore, physicians' attention toward COVID-19 can only result in neglect and delayed diagnosis of complicated malaria cases. These factors, among others, might have contributed to an increase of malaria cases in Dammam, Saudi Arabia. Thus, this study was conducted to examine the effects of COVID-19 on malarial cases. Methods The medical records of all patients who were treated at Dammam Medical Complex for malaria between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2022, were reviewed. Malaria cases were compared between the pre-COVID-19 period (between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2020) and the COVID-19 period (between July 1, 2020, and June 30, 2022). Results A total of 92 malaria cases occurred in the total study period. There were 60 cases of malaria in the COVID-19 period as opposed to only 32 cases in the pre-COVID-19 period. All the cases were imported from the endemic Saudi southern areas or from outside the country. Eighty-two patients (89.1%) were males. Most of them were Sundaneses (39 patients, 42.4%), Saudis (21 patients, 22.8%), and tribal peoples (14 patients, 15.2%). Fifty-four patients (58.7%) were infected with Plasmodium falciparum. Seventeen patients (18.5%) were infected with Plasmodium vivax. Another 17 patients (18.5%) had a mixed infection with both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. A trend toward more infected stateless tribal patients was observed in the COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period (21.7% vs 3.1%). A similar trend was noticed for mixed malarial infections with both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax (29.8% vs 0%) with a P value of less than 0.01. Conclusion Malaria cases were almost doubled during the COVID-19 pandemic as compared to the pre-pandemic era signifying the negative effects of the pandemic on malaria epidemiology. The cases increased for a variety of causes that include alternation of health-seeking behaviors, changes in healthcare structures and regulations, and the interruption of malaria preventive services. Future research is needed to study the long-term effects of the changes imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic and to mitigate the effects of any future pandemic on malaria control. As two patients from our cohort were diagnosed with malaria based on blood smears, although they had negative rapid detection tests (RDTs), we recommend testing all the patients who are suspected to have malaria with both RDTs and peripheral blood smears.