Inpatient hospital performance is associated with post-discharge sepsis mortality

Provider-to-provider telehealth for sepsis patients in a cohort of rural emergency departments

BACKGROUND

Telehealth has been proposed as one strategy to improve the quality of time-sensitive sepsis care in rural emergency departments (EDs). The purpose of this study was to measure the association between telehealth-supplemented ED (tele-ED) care, health care costs, and clinical outcomes among patients with sepsis in rural EDs.

METHODS

Cohort study using Medicare fee-for-service claims data for beneficiaries treated for sepsis in rural EDs between February 1, 2017, and September 30, 2019. Our primary hospital-level analysis used multivariable generalized estimating equations to measure the association between treatment in a tele-ED-capable hospital and 30-day total costs of care. In our supporting secondary analysis, we conducted a propensity-matched analysis of patients who used tele-ED with matched controls from non-tele-ED-capable hospitals. Our primary outcome was total health care payments among index hospitalized patients between the index ED visit and 30 days after hospital discharge, and our secondary outcomes included hospital mortality, hospital length of stay, 90-day mortality, 28-day hospital-free days, and 30-day inpatient readmissions.

RESULTS

In our primary analysis, sepsis patients in tele-ED-capable hospitals had 6.7% higher (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1%-11.5%) total health care costs compared to those in non-tele-ED-capable hospitals. In our propensity-matched patient-level analysis, total health care costs were 23% higher (95% CI 16.5%-30.4%) in tele-ED cases than matched non-tele-ED controls. Clinical outcomes were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Tele-ED capability in a mature rural tele-ED network was not associated with decreased health care costs or improved clinical outcomes. Future work is needed to reduce rural-urban sepsis care disparities and formalize systems of regionalized care.

Effectiveness of Transitional Care Program among High-Risk Discharged Patients: A Quasi-Experimental Study on Saving Costs, Post-Discharge Readmissions and Emergency Department Visits

Transitional care programs (TCPs), where hospital care team members repeatedly follow up with discharged patients, aim to reduce post-discharge hospital or emergency department (ED) utilization and healthcare costs. We examined the effectiveness of TCPs at reducing healthcare costs, hospital readmissions, and ED visits. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) program adjudicated claims files and electronic health records from Greenville Memorial Hospital, Greenville, SC, were accessed. Data on post-discharge 30- and 90-day ED visits and readmissions, total costs, and episodes with costs over BPCI target prices were extracted from November 2017 to July 2020 and compared between the "TCP-Graduates" (N = 85) and "Did Not Graduate" (DNG) (N = 1310) groups. As compared to the DNG group, the TCP-Graduates group had significantly fewer 30-day (7.1% vs. 14.9%, p = 0.046) and 90-day (15.5% vs. 26.3%, p = 0.025) readmissions, episodes with total costs over target prices (25.9% vs. 36.6%, p = 0.031), and lower total cost/episode (USD 22,439 vs. USD 28,633, p = 0.018), but differences in 30-day (9.4% vs. 11.2%, p = 0.607) and 90-day (20.0% vs. 21.9%, p = 0.680) ED visits were not significant. TCP was associated with reduced post-discharge hospital readmissions, total care costs, and episodes exceeding target prices. Further studies with rigorous designs and individual-level data should test these findings.

Detailed Characteristics of Post-discharge Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The in-hospital survival of patients suffering from acute pancreatitis (AP) is 95% to 98%. However, there is growing evidence that patients discharged after AP may be at risk of serious morbidity and mortality. Here, we aimed to investigate the risk, causes, and predictors of the most severe consequence of the post-AP period: mortality.

METHODS

A total of 2613 well-characterized patients from 25 centers were included and followed by the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group between 2012 and 2021. A general and a hospital-based population was used as the control group.

RESULTS

After an AP episode, patients have an approximately threefold higher incidence rate of mortality than the general population (0.0404 vs 0.0130 person-years). First-year mortality after discharge was almost double than in-hospital mortality (5.5% vs 3.5%), with 3.0% occurring in the first 90-day period. Age, comorbidities, and severity were the most significant independent risk factors for death following AP. Furthermore, multivariate analysis identified creatinine, glucose, and pleural fluid on admission as independent risk factors associated with post-discharge mortality. In the first 90-day period, cardiac failure and AP-related sepsis were among the main causes of death following discharge, and cancer-related cachexia and non-AP-related infection were the key causes in the later phase.

CONCLUSION

Almost as many patients in our cohort died in the first 90-day period after discharge as during their hospital stay. Evaluation of cardiovascular status, follow-up of local complications, and cachexia-preventing oncological care should be an essential part of post-AP patient care. Future study protocols in AP must include at least a 90-day follow-up period after discharge.

Explainable machine learning to predict long-term mortality in critically ill ventilated patients: a retrospective study in central Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) model is increasingly used to predict short-term outcome in critically ill patients, but the study for long-term outcome is sparse. We used explainable ML approach to establish 30-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality prediction model in critically ill ventilated patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively included patients who were admitted to intensive care units during 2015-2018 at a tertiary hospital in central Taiwan and linked with the Taiwanese nationwide death registration data. Three ML models, including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR), were used to establish mortality prediction model. Furthermore, we used feature importance, Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) plot, partial dependence plot (PDP), and local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) to explain the established model.

RESULTS

We enrolled 6994 patients and found the accuracy was similar among the three ML models, and the area under the curve value of using XGBoost to predict 30-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality were 0.858, 0.839 and 0.816, respectively. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis further demonstrated accuracy and applicability of models. SHAP summary plot and PDP plot illustrated the discriminative point of APACHE (acute physiology and chronic health exam) II score, haemoglobin and albumin to predict 1-year mortality. The application of LIME and SHAP force plots quantified the probability of 1-year mortality and algorithm of key features at individual patient level.

CONCLUSIONS

We used an explainable ML approach, mainly XGBoost, SHAP and LIME plots to establish an explainable 1-year mortality prediction ML model in critically ill ventilated patients.

A Positive Fluid Balance in the First Week Was Associated With Increased Long-Term Mortality in Critically Ill Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction

Early fluid balance has been found to affect short-term mortality in critically ill patients; however, there is little knowledge regarding the association between early cumulative fluid balance (CFB) and long-term mortality. This study aims to determine the distinct association between CFB day 1-3 (CFB 1-3) and day 4-7 (CFB 4-7) and long-term mortality in critically ill patients.

Patients and Methods

This study was conducted at Taichung Veterans General Hospital, a tertiary care referral center in central Taiwan, by linking the hospital critical care data warehouse 2015-2019 and death registry data of the Taiwanese National Health Research Database. The patients followed up until deceased or the end of the study on 31 December 2019. We use the log-rank test to examine the association between CFB 1-3 and CFB 4-7 with long-term mortality and multivariable Cox regression to identify independent predictors during index admission for long-term mortality in critically ill patients.

Results

A total of 4,610 patients were evaluated. The mean age was 66.4 ± 16.4 years, where 63.8% were men. In patients without shock, a positive CFB 4-7, but not CFB 1-3, was associated with 1-year mortality, while a positive CFB 1-3 and CFB 4-7 had a consistent and excess hazard of 1-year mortality among critically ill patients with shock. The multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model identified that CFB 1-3 and CFB 4-7 (with per 1-liter increment, HR: 1.047 and 1.094; 95% CI 1.037-1.058 and 1.080-1.108, respectively) were independently associated with high long-term mortality in critically ill patients after adjustment of relevant covariates, including disease severity and the presence of shock.

Conclusions

We found that the fluid balance in the first week, especially on days 4-7, appears to be an early predictor for long-term mortality in critically ill patients. More studies are needed to validate our findings and elucidate underlying mechanisms.

Impact of sepsis education for healthcare professionals and students on learner and patient outcomes: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is an important global healthcare problem that is a key challenge faced by healthcare professionals face worldwide. One key effort aimed at reducing the global burden of sepsis is educating healthcare professionals about early identification and management of sepsis.

AIM

To provide a comprehensive evaluation of sepsis education among healthcare professionals and students.

METHODS

Six databases (PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Scopus) were searched. We included studies that described and evaluated any form of education or training on sepsis delivered to healthcare professionals and students. Study outcomes were summarised according to the adapted Kirkpatrick model of training evaluation.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies were included in the review. The learning contents were reported to be in accordance with the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines. Seven studies included the topic of interprofessional teamwork and communication in their sepsis education content. Most educational programs were effective and reported positive effects on immediate knowledge outcomes. Interventions that were delivered through an active learning approach such as simulation and game-based learning generally produced greater gains than didactic teaching. Improvements in patient care processes and patient outcomes were associated with the concomitant existence or implementation of a hospital sepsis care bundle.

CONCLUSION

Incorporating active learning strategies into sepsis education interventions has the potential to improve learners' long-term outcomes. In addition, sepsis education and protocol-based sepsis care bundle act in synergy to augment greater improvements in care processes and patient benefits.

Impact of Early Fluid Balance on Long-Term Mortality in Critically Ill Surgical Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study in Central Taiwan

Fluid balance is an essential issue in critical care; however, the impact of early fluid balance on the long-term mortality in critically ill surgical patients remains unknown. This study aimed to address the impact of day 1–3 and day 4–7 fluid balance on the long-term mortality in critically ill surgical patients. We enrolled patients who were admitted to surgical intensive care units (ICUs) during 2015–2019 at a tertiary hospital in central Taiwan and retrieved date-of-death from the Taiwanese nationwide death registration profile. We used a Log-rank test and a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model to determine the independent mortality impact of early fluid balance. A total of 6978 patients were included for analyses (mean age: 60.9 ± 15.9 years; 63.9% of them were men). In-hospital mortality, 90-day mortality, 1-year and overall mortality was 10.3%, 15.8%, 23.8% and 31.7%, respectively. In a multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model adjusted for relevant covariates, we found that positive cumulative day 4–7 fluid balance was independently associated with long-term mortality (aHR 1.083, 95% CI 1.062–1.105), and a similar trend was found on day 1–3 fluid balance, although to a lesser extent (aHR 1.027, 95% CI 1.011–1.043). In conclusion, the fluid balance in the first week of ICU stay, particularly day 4–7 fluid balance, may affect the long-term outcome in critically ill surgical patients.