Strategic use of new generation antidepressants for depression: SUN(^_^) D protocol update and statistical analysis plan

Measuring the performance of prediction models to personalize treatment choice

When data are available from individual patients receiving either a treatment or a control intervention in a randomized trial, various statistical and machine learning methods can be used to develop models for predicting future outcomes under the two conditions, and thus to predict treatment effect at the patient level. These predictions can subsequently guide personalized treatment choices. Although several methods for validating prediction models are available, little attention has been given to measuring the performance of predictions of personalized treatment effect. In this article, we propose a range of measures that can be used to this end. We start by defining two dimensions of model accuracy for treatment effects, for a single outcome: discrimination for benefit and calibration for benefit. We then amalgamate these two dimensions into an additional concept, decision accuracy, which quantifies the model's ability to identify patients for whom the benefit from treatment exceeds a given threshold. Subsequently, we propose a series of performance measures related to these dimensions and discuss estimating procedures, focusing on randomized data. Our methods are applicable for continuous or binary outcomes, for any type of prediction model, as long as it uses baseline covariates to predict outcomes under treatment and control. We illustrate all methods using two simulated datasets and a real dataset from a trial in depression. We implement all methods in the R package predieval. Results suggest that the proposed measures can be useful in evaluating and comparing the performance of competing models in predicting individualized treatment effect.

Clinical Guideline (CANMAT 2016) Discordance of Medications for Patients with Major Depressive Disorder in China

Objective

This survey aims to explore the current medical treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) in China and match its degree with Canadian Network for Mood and Anxiety Treatments (CANMAT).

Methods

A total of 3275 patients were recruited from 16 mental health centers and 16 general hospitals in China. Descriptive statistics presented the total number and percentage of drugs, as well as all kinds of treatments.

Results

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) accounted for the largest proportion (57.2%), followed by serotonin-noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs) (22.8%) and mirtazapine (7.0%) in the first therapy, while that of SNRIs (53.9%) followed by SSRIs (39.2%) and mirtazapine (9.8%) in the follow-up therapy. An average of 1.85 medications was administered to each MDD patient.

Conclusion

SSRIs were the first choice in the first therapy, while the proportion of those drugs decreased during the follow-up therapy and were replaced by SNRIs. Plenty of combined pharmacotherapies were directly selected as the first trial of patients, which was inconsistent with guideline recommendations.

Pharmacological interventions for treatment-resistant depression in adults

BACKGROUND

Although antidepressants are often a first-line treatment for adults with moderate to severe depression, many people do not respond adequately to medication, and are said to have treatment-resistant depression (TRD). Little evidence exists to inform the most appropriate 'next step' treatment for these people.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of standard pharmacological treatments for adults with TRD.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Common Mental Disorders Controlled Trials Register (CCMDCTR) (March 2016), CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and Web of Science (31 December 2018), the World Health Organization trials portal and ClinicalTrials.gov for unpublished and ongoing studies, and screened bibliographies of included studies and relevant systematic reviews without date or language restrictions.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with participants aged 18 to 74 years with unipolar depression (based on criteria from DSM-IV-TR or earlier versions, International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10, Feighner criteria or Research Diagnostic Criteria) who had not responded to a minimum of four weeks of antidepressant treatment at a recommended dose. Interventions were: (1) increasing the dose of antidepressant monotherapy; (2) switching to a different antidepressant monotherapy; (3) augmenting treatment with another antidepressant; (4) augmenting treatment with a non-antidepressant. All were compared with continuing antidepressant monotherapy. We excluded studies of non-standard pharmacological treatments (e.g. sex hormones, vitamins, herbal medicines and food supplements).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two reviewers used standard Cochrane methods to extract data, assess risk of bias, and resolve disagreements. We analysed continuous outcomes with mean difference (MD) or standardised mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI). For dichotomous outcomes, we calculated a relative risk (RR) and 95% CI. Where sufficient data existed, we conducted meta-analyses using random-effects models.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 10 RCTs (2731 participants). Nine were conducted in outpatient settings and one in both in- and outpatients. Mean age of participants ranged from 42 - 50.2 years, and most were female. One study investigated switching to, or augmenting current antidepressant treatment with, another antidepressant (mianserin). Another augmented current antidepressant treatment with the antidepressant mirtazapine. Eight studies augmented current antidepressant treatment with a non-antidepressant (either an anxiolytic (buspirone) or an antipsychotic (cariprazine; olanzapine; quetiapine (3 studies); or ziprasidone (2 studies)). We judged most studies to be at a low or unclear risk of bias. Only one of the included studies was not industry-sponsored. There was no evidence of a difference in depression severity when current treatment was switched to mianserin (MD on Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAM-D) = -1.8, 95% CI -5.22 to 1.62, low-quality evidence)) compared with continuing on antidepressant monotherapy. Nor was there evidence of a difference in numbers dropping out of treatment (RR 2.08, 95% CI 0.94 to 4.59, low-quality evidence; dropouts 38% in the mianserin switch group; 18% in the control). Augmenting current antidepressant treatment with mianserin was associated with an improvement in depression symptoms severity scores from baseline (MD on HAM-D -4.8, 95% CI -8.18 to -1.42; moderate-quality evidence). There was no evidence of a difference in numbers dropping out (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.38 to 2.72; low-quality evidence; 19% dropouts in the mianserin-augmented group; 38% in the control). When current antidepressant treatment was augmented with mirtazapine, there was little difference in depressive symptoms (MD on Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) -1.7, 95% CI -4.03 to 0.63; high-quality evidence) and no evidence of a difference in dropout numbers (RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.15 to 1.62; dropouts 2% in mirtazapine-augmented group; 3% in the control). Augmentation with buspirone provided no evidence of a benefit in terms of a reduction in depressive symptoms (MD on Montgomery and Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) -0.30, 95% CI -9.48 to 8.88; low-quality evidence) or numbers of drop-outs (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.53; low-quality evidence; dropouts 11% in buspirone-augmented group; 19% in the control). Severity of depressive symptoms reduced when current treatment was augmented with cariprazine (MD on MADRS -1.50, 95% CI -2.74 to -0.25; high-quality evidence), olanzapine (MD on HAM-D -7.9, 95% CI -16.76 to 0.96; low-quality evidence; MD on MADRS -12.4, 95% CI -22.44 to -2.36; low-quality evidence), quetiapine (SMD -0.32, 95% CI -0.46 to -0.18; I2 = 6%, high-quality evidence), or ziprasidone (MD on HAM-D -2.73, 95% CI -4.53 to -0.93; I2 = 0, moderate-quality evidence) compared with continuing on antidepressant monotherapy. However, a greater number of participants dropped out when antidepressant monotherapy was augmented with an antipsychotic (cariprazine RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.41; quetiapine RR 1.57, 95% CI: 1.14 to 2.17; ziprasidone RR 1.60, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.55) compared with antidepressant monotherapy, although estimates for olanzapine augmentation were imprecise (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.04 to 2.69). Dropout rates ranged from 10% to 39% in the groups augmented with an antipsychotic, and from 12% to 23% in the comparison groups. The most common reasons for dropping out were side effects or adverse events. We also summarised data about response and remission rates (based on changes in depressive symptoms) for included studies, along with data on social adjustment and social functioning, quality of life, economic outcomes and adverse events.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

A small body of evidence shows that augmenting current antidepressant therapy with mianserin or with an antipsychotic (cariprazine, olanzapine, quetiapine or ziprasidone) improves depressive symptoms over the short-term (8 to 12 weeks). However, this evidence is mostly of low or moderate quality due to imprecision of the estimates of effects. Improvements with antipsychotics need to be balanced against the increased likelihood of dropping out of treatment or experiencing an adverse event. Augmentation of current antidepressant therapy with a second antidepressant, mirtazapine, does not produce a clinically important benefit in reduction of depressive symptoms (high-quality evidence). The evidence regarding the effects of augmenting current antidepressant therapy with buspirone or switching current antidepressant treatment to mianserin is currently insufficient. Further trials are needed to increase the certainty of these findings and to examine long-term effects of treatment, as well as the effectiveness of other pharmacological treatment strategies.

Optimising first- and second-line treatment strategies for untreated major depressive disorder - the SUN☺D study: a pragmatic, multi-centre, assessor-blinded randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

For patients starting treatment for depression, current guidelines recommend titrating the antidepressant dosage to the maximum of the licenced range if tolerated. When patients do not achieve remission within several weeks, recommendations include adding or switching to another antidepressant. However, the relative merits of these guideline strategies remain unestablished.

METHODS

This multi-centre, open-label, assessor-blinded, pragmatic trial involved two steps. Step 1 used open-cluster randomisation, allocating clinics into those titrating sertraline up to 50 mg/day or 100 mg/day by week 3. Step 2 used central randomisation to allocate patients who did not remit after 3 weeks of treatment to continue sertraline, to add mirtazapine or to switch to mirtazapine. The primary outcome was depression severity measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) (scores between 0 and 27; higher scores, greater depression) at week 9. We applied mixed-model repeated-measures analysis adjusted for key baseline covariates.

RESULTS

Between December 2010 and March 2015, we recruited 2011 participants with hitherto untreated major depression at 48 clinics in Japan. In step 1, 970 participants were allocated to the 50 mg/day and 1041 to the 100 mg/day arms; 1927 (95.8%) provided primary outcomes. There was no statistically significant difference in the adjusted PHQ-9 score at week 9 between the 50 mg/day arm and the 100 mg/day arm (0.25 point, 95% confidence interval (CI), - 0.58 to 1.07, P = 0.55). Other outcomes proved similar in the two groups. In step 2, 1646 participants not remitted by week 3 were randomised to continue sertraline (n = 551), to add mirtazapine (n = 537) or to switch to mirtazapine (n = 558): 1613 (98.0%) provided primary outcomes. At week 9, adding mirtazapine achieved a reduction in PHQ-9 scores of 0.99 point (0.43 to 1.55, P = 0.0012); switching achieved a reduction of 1.01 points (0.46 to 1.56, P = 0.0012), both relative to continuing sertraline. Combination increased the percentage of remission by 12.4% (6.1 to 19.0%) and switching by 8.4% (2.5 to 14.8%). There were no differences in adverse effects.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with new onset depression, we found no advantage of titrating sertraline to 100 mg vs 50 mg. Patients unremitted by week 3 gained a small benefit in reduction of depressive symptoms at week 9 by switching sertraline to mirtazapine or by adding mirtazapine.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01109693 . Registered on 23 April 2010.

Older Adults' Perspectives on Clinical Research: A Focus Group and Survey Study

OBJECTIVES

Clinical trials can benefit from patient perspectives to inform trial design, such as choice of outcome measures. We engaged older adults in focus groups and surveys to get their perspective regarding needs in clinical research. The goal was to inform the development of a new clinical trial of medication strategies for treatment-resistant depression in older adults.

METHODS

Older adults with depression participated in focus groups and a subsequent survey in St. Louis and New York. They were queried regarding research design features including outcomes, clinical management, mobile technology and iPad-administered assessments, the collection of DNA, and the receipt of their personal results.

RESULTS

Patients told us: (1) psychological well-being and symptomatic remission are outcomes that matter to them; (2) it is important to measure not only benefits but risks (such as risk of falling) of medications; (3) for pragmatic trials in clinical settings, the research team should provide support to clinicians to ensure that medications are properly prescribed; (4) technology-based assessments are acceptable but there were concerns about data security and burden; (5) DNA testing is very important if it could improve precision care; (6) participants want to receive aggregate findings and their own personal results at the end of the study.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients gave useful and wide-ranging guidance regarding clinical and comparative effectiveness research in older adults. We discuss these findings with the goal of making the next generation of geriatric studies more impactful and patient-centered.