Hydrological features and the ecological niches of mammalian hosts delineate elevated risk for Ross River virus epidemics in anthropogenic landscapes in Australia

Using urban landscape pattern to understand and evaluate infectious disease risk

COVID-19 case numbers in 161 sub-districts of Wuhan were investigated based on landscape epidemiology, and their landscape metrics were calculated based on land use/land cover (LULC). Initially, a mediation model verified a partially mediated population role in the relationship between landscape pattern and infection number. Adjusted incidence rate (AIR) and community safety index (CSI), two indicators for infection risk in sub-districts, were 25.82∼63.56 ‱ and 3.00∼15.87 respectively, and central urban sub-districts were at higher infection risk. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) performed better than OLS regression with AICc differences of 7.951∼181.261. The adjusted R² in GWR models of class-level index and infection risk were 0.697 to 0.817, while for the landscape-level index they were 0.668 to 0.835. Secondly, 16 key landscape metrics were identified based on GWR, and then a prediction model for infection risk in sub-districts and communities was developed. Using principal component analysis (PCA), development intensity, landscape level, and urban blue-green space were considered to be principal components affecting disease infection risk, explaining 73.1 % of the total variance. Cropland (PLAND and LSI), urban land (NP, LPI, and LSI) and unused land (NP) represent development intensity, greatly affecting infection risk in urban areas. Landscape level CONTAG, DIVISION, SHDI, and SHEI represent mobility and connectivity, having a profound impact on infection risk in both urban and suburban areas. Water (PLAND, NP, LPI, and LSI) and woodland (NP, and LSI) represent urban blue-green spaces, and were particularly important for infection risk in suburban areas. Based on urban landscape pattern, we proposed a framework to understand and evaluate infection risk. These findings provide a basis for risk evaluation and policy-making of urban infectious disease, which is significant for community management and urban planning for infectious disease worldwide.

Mosquito-Borne Viruses and Non-Human Vertebrates in Australia: A Review

Mosquito-borne viruses are well recognized as a global public health burden amongst humans, but the effects on non-human vertebrates is rarely reported. Australia, houses a number of endemic mosquito-borne viruses, such as Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, and Murray Valley encephalitis virus. In this review, we synthesize the current state of mosquito-borne viruses impacting non-human vertebrates in Australia, including diseases that could be introduced due to local mosquito distribution. Given the unique island biogeography of Australia and the endemism of vertebrate species (including macropods and monotremes), Australia is highly susceptible to foreign mosquito species becoming established, and mosquito-borne viruses becoming endemic alongside novel reservoirs. For each virus, we summarize the known geographic distribution, mosquito vectors, vertebrate hosts, clinical signs and treatments, and highlight the importance of including non-human vertebrates in the assessment of future disease outbreaks. The mosquito-borne viruses discussed can impact wildlife, livestock, and companion animals, causing significant changes to Australian ecology and economy. The complex nature of mosquito-borne disease, and challenges in assessing the impacts to non-human vertebrate species, makes this an important topic to periodically review.

Using ecological variables to predict Ross River virus disease incidence in South Australia

BACKGROUND

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is Australia's most widespread vector-borne disease causing significant public health concern. The aim of this study was to identify the ecological covariates of RRV risk and to develop epidemic forecasting models in a disease hotspot region of South Australia.

METHODS

Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to predict the incidence of RRV disease in the Riverland region of South Australia, an area known to have a high incidence of the disease. The model was developed using data from January 2000 to December 2012 then validated using disease notification data on reported cases for the following year.

RESULTS

Monthly numbers of the mosquito Culex annulirostris (β=0.033, p<0.001) and total rainfall (β=0.263, p=0.002) were significant predictors of RRV transmission in the study region. The forecasted RRV incidence in the predictive model was generally consistent with the actual number of cases in the study area.

CONCLUSIONS

A predictive model has been shown to be useful in forecasting the occurrence of RRV disease, with increased vector populations and rainfall being important factors associated with transmission. This approach may be useful in a public health context by providing early warning of vector-borne diseases in other settings.

Relationship between Land Use/Land-Use Change and Human Health in Australia: A Scoping Study

We undertook a scoping study to map the relevant evidence, summarise the findings, and to help identify gaps in the knowledge base on the relationship between land use/land-use change and human health in Australia. Our systematic search of the scientific literature for relevant articles up to August 2020 identified 37 articles. All 37 articles meeting our inclusion criteria were published after 2003. Zoonotic or vector-borne disease constituted the most common health outcome type studied. Agriculture/grazing was the land use/land-use change type most frequently represented in the literature, followed by coal seam gas extraction and open cut coal mining. The relationship between land use/land use change and human health in Australia, is not conclusive from the existing evidence. This is because of (1) a lack of comprehensive coverage of the topic, (2) a lack of coverage of the geography, (3) a lack of coverage of study types, and (4) conflicting results in the research already undertaken. If we are to protect human health and the ecosystems which support life, more high-quality, specific, end-user driven research is needed to support land management decisions in Australia. Until the health effects of further land use change are better known and understood, caution ought to be practiced in land management and land conversion.

Epidemiological models for predicting Ross River virus in Australia: A systematic review

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common and widespread arbovirus in Australia. Epidemiological models of RRV increase understanding of RRV transmission and help provide early warning of outbreaks to reduce incidence. However, RRV predictive models have not been systematically reviewed, analysed, and compared. The hypothesis of this systematic review was that summarising the epidemiological models applied to predict RRV disease and analysing model performance could elucidate drivers of RRV incidence and transmission patterns. We performed a systematic literature search in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Scopus for studies of RRV using population-based data, incorporating at least one epidemiological model and analysing the association between exposures and RRV disease. Forty-three articles, all of high or medium quality, were included. Twenty-two (51.2%) used generalised linear models and 11 (25.6%) used time-series models. Climate and weather data were used in 27 (62.8%) and mosquito abundance or related data were used in 14 (32.6%) articles as model covariates. A total of 140 models were included across the articles. Rainfall (69 models, 49.3%), temperature (66, 47.1%) and tide height (45, 32.1%) were the three most commonly used exposures. Ten (23.3%) studies published data related to model performance. This review summarises current knowledge of RRV modelling and reveals a research gap in comparing predictive methods. To improve predictive accuracy, new methods for forecasting, such as non-linear mixed models and machine learning approaches, warrant investigation.

Ross River Virus Infection of Horses: Appraisal of Ecological and Clinical Consequences

Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus of the genus Alphavirus that causes disease in humans and horses in Australia. A temporal association of RRV infection in horses with clinical signs including pyrexia, malaise, and polyarthralgia has been reported, along with reduced athletic performance, often for extended periods. Despite these reports, disease due to RRV remains somewhat controversial as experimental infection of horses has resulted in obvious viraemia yet minimal signs of clinical disease. The relatively high viraemia demonstrated by horses infected with RRV has led to speculation that they could act as an important reservoir host of the virus, although this remains unclear. This review sought to appraise the existing literature relating to RRV infection of horses and to summarize the ecological and clinical consequences of RRV of relevance to the equine industry and to public health more broadly.

The geography of Ross River virus infection in South Australia, 2000-2013

Introduction

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is Australia's most common arthropod-borne disease which has an important impact on population health and productivity. The aim of this study was to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of RRV notifications during 2000-2013 in South Australia (SA).

Methods

The epidemiologic patterns of RRV notifications in SA from January 2000 to December 2013 were examined at a statistical local area (SLA) level. Spatial-temporal analyses were conducted using patient-reported place of exposure to characterise the recurrence of RRV infection stratified by age and sex.

Results

During the study period, a total of 3,687 RRV disease notifications were recorded in the state with state-wide mean annual rates of 16.8 cases per 100,000 persons and a 1:1.32 male:female ratio. The SLAs reporting cases of RRV disease exhibited spatial and temporal variation. Notified cases of RRV disease occurred more frequently in summer and autumn. A geographic expansion was observed of the area within which RRV cases occur. The comparison of age- and sex-standardised incidence rates, calculated by place of residence and patient-reported place of exposure, highlights the importance of using the latter to accurately display geospatial disease trends over time. Areas with the largest proportion of visitor cases and having the highest risk were mostly along the River Murray, which provides many vector mosquito habitats.

Conclusion

Although public health interventions should be considered in all SLAs where RRV occurs, we suggest that priority should be given to the Riverland areas identified as highest risk.

Flooding and Arboviral Disease: Predicting Ross River Virus Disease Outbreaks Across Inland Regions of South-Eastern Australia

Flood frequency is expected to increase across the globe with climate change. Understanding the relationship between flooding and arboviral disease can reduce disease risk and associated costs. South-eastern Australia is dominated by the flood-prone Murray-Darling River system where the incidence of Australia's most common arboviral disease, Ross River virus (RRV), is high. This study aimed to determine the relationship between riverine flooding and RRV disease outbreaks in inland south-eastern Australia, specifically New South Wales (NSW). Each study month from 1991 to 2013, for each of 37 local government areas (LGAs) was assigned 'outbreak/non-outbreak' status based on long-term trimmed-average age-standardized RRV notification rates and 'flood/non-flood' status based on riverine overflow. LGAs were grouped into eight climate zones with the relationship between flood and RRV outbreak modeled using generalized estimating equations. Modeling adjusted for rainfall in the previous 1-3 mo. Spring-summer flooding increased the odds of summer RRV outbreaks in three climate zones before and after adjusting for rainfall 1, 2, and 3 mo prior to the outbreak. Flooding at any time of the year was not predictive of RRV outbreaks in the remaining five climate zones. Predicting RRV disease outbreaks with flood events can assist with more targeted mosquito spraying programs, thereby reducing disease transmission and mosquito resistance.

Dispersal of the Mosquito Aedes vigilax (Diptera: Culicidae) From Urban Estuarine Wetlands in Sydney, Australia

Aedes vigilax (Skuse) is a pest and vector species associated with coastal wetlands and the abundance of this mosquito has been identified as contributing to increased risk of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. As urban development continues to encroach on these coastal wetlands, pest and public health impacts are becoming of increasing concern and in the absence of broadscale mosquito control. Urban planners are looking to buffer zones and other land use planning options to minimize contact between mosquitoes and humans but gaps in the understanding of dispersal ranges of mosquitoes hamper the adoption of these strategies. A mark-release-recapture experiment was conducted to measure the dispersal of this mosquito from an urban estuarine wetland in Sydney, Australia. An estimated total of over 150,000 wild caught female mosquitoes were marked with fluorescent dust and then released. A network of 38 traps was then operated for 5 d within an area of 28 km2. A total of 280 marked mosquitoes was recaptured, representing less than 1% of the estimate 250,000 marked mosquitoes released. Marked mosquitoes were recaptured up to 3 km from the release point, providing an insight into the dispersal range of these mosquitoes. The mean distance traveled by marked mosquitoes was 0.83 km, a result reflecting the greater proportion of marked mosquitoes recaptured near release point. The findings of this study indicate that effective buffer zones between estuarine wetlands and high-density urban developments would be an impractical approach to minimizing pest and public health impacts associated with this mosquito.

Arthritogenic Alphaviruses: A Worldwide Emerging Threat?

Arthritogenic alphaviruses are responsible for a dengue-like syndrome associated with severe debilitating polyarthralgia that can persist for months or years and impact life quality. Chikungunya virus is the most well-known member of this family since it was responsible for two worldwide epidemics with millions of cases in the last 15 years. However, other arthritogenic alphaviruses that are as of yet restrained to specific territories are the cause of neglected tropical diseases: O'nyong'nyong virus in Sub-Saharan Africa, Mayaro virus in Latin America, and Ross River virus in Australia and the Pacific island countries and territories. This review evaluates their emerging potential in light of the current knowledge for each of them and in comparison to chikungunya virus.

Ecological and life history traits are associated with Ross River virus infection among sylvatic mammals in Australia

Background

Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia’s most important arbovirus given its annual burden of disease and the relatively large number of Australians at risk for infection. This mosquito-borne arbovirus is also a zoonosis, making its epidemiology and infection ecology complex and cryptic. Our grasp of enzootic, epizootic, and zoonotic RRV transmission dynamics is imprecise largely due to a poor understanding of the role of wild mammalian hosts in the RRV system.

Methods

The current study applied a piecewise structural equation model (PSEM) toward an interspecific comparison of sylvatic Australian mammals to characterize the ecological and life history profile of species with a history of RRV infection relative to those species with no such history among all wild mammalian species surveyed for RRV infection. The effects of species traits were assessed through multiple causal pathways within the PSEM framework.

Results

Sylvatic mammalian species with a history of RRV infection tended to express dietary specialization and smaller population density. These species were also characterized by a longer gestation length.

Conclusions

This study provides the first interspecific comparison of wild mammals for RRV infection and identifies some potential targets for future wildlife surveys into the infection ecology of this important arbovirus. An applied RRV macroecology may prove invaluable to the epidemiological modeling of RRV epidemics across diverse sylvatic landscapes, as well as to the development of human and animal health surveillance systems.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12898-019-0220-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.