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Nakase T, Giovanetti M, Obolski U, Lourenço J. Global transmission suitability maps for dengue virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti from 1981 to 2019. Sci Data 2023; 10:275. [PMID: 37173303 PMCID: PMC10182074 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02170-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/20/2023] [Indexed: 05/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Mosquito-borne viruses increasingly threaten human populations due to accelerating changes in climate, human and mosquito migration, and land use practices. Over the last three decades, the global distribution of dengue has rapidly expanded, causing detrimental health and economic problems in many areas of the world. To develop effective disease control measures and plan for future epidemics, there is an urgent need to map the current and future transmission potential of dengue across both endemic and emerging areas. Expanding and applying Index P, a previously developed mosquito-borne viral suitability measure, we map the global climate-driven transmission potential of dengue virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from 1981 to 2019. This database of dengue transmission suitability maps and an R package for Index P estimations are offered to the public health community as resources towards the identification of past, current and future transmission hotspots. These resources and the studies they facilitate can contribute to the planning of disease control and prevention strategies, especially in areas where surveillance is unreliable or non-existent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Taishi Nakase
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK.
| | - Marta Giovanetti
- Laboratório de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21040-360, Brazil
- Department of Science and Technology for Humans and the Environment, University of Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, 00128, Italy
| | - Uri Obolski
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, 69978, Israel
- Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Exact Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, 69978, Israel
| | - José Lourenço
- Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, 1749-016, Portugal.
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Zhang M, Huang JF, Kang M, Liu XC, Lin HY, Zhao ZY, Ye GQ, Lin SN, Rui J, Xu JW, Zhu YZ, Wang Y, Yang M, Tang SX, Cheng Q, Chen TM. Epidemiological Characteristics and the Dynamic Transmission Model of Dengue Fever in Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province in 2018. Trop Med Infect Dis 2022; 7:tropicalmed7090209. [PMID: 36136620 PMCID: PMC9501079 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7090209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2022] [Revised: 08/14/2022] [Accepted: 08/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: With the progress of urbanization, the mobility of people has gradually increased, which has led to the further spread of dengue fever. This study evaluated the transmissibility of dengue fever within districts and between different districts in Zhanjiang City to provide corresponding advice for cross-regional prevention and control. Methods: A mathematical model of transmission dynamics was developed to explore the transmissibility of the disease and to compare that between different regions. Results: A total of 467 DF cases (6.38 per 100,000 people) were reported in Zhanjiang City in 2018. In the model, without any intervention, the number of simulated cases in this epidemic reached about 950. The dengue fever transmissions between districts varied within and between regions. When the spread of dengue fever from Chikan Districts to other districts was cut off, the number of cases in other districts dropped significantly or even to zero. When the density of mosquitoes in Xiashan District was controlled, the dengue fever epidemic in Xiashan District was found to be significantly alleviated. Conclusions: When there is a dengue outbreak, timely measures can effectively control it from developing into an epidemic. Different prevention and control measures in different districts could efficiently reduce the risk of disease transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meng Zhang
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Jie-Feng Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Min Kang
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
| | - Xing-Chun Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Hong-Yan Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Ze-Yu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Guo-Qiang Ye
- Zhanjiang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhanjiang 524037, China
| | - Sheng-Nan Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Jia Rui
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Jing-Wen Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Yuan-Zhao Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Yao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Meng Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Shi-Xing Tang
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
- Correspondence: (S.-X.T.); (Q.C.); (T.-M.C.); Tel.: +1-4242489768 (Q.C.); +86-13661934715 (T.-M.C.)
| | - Qu Cheng
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94704, USA
- Correspondence: (S.-X.T.); (Q.C.); (T.-M.C.); Tel.: +1-4242489768 (Q.C.); +86-13661934715 (T.-M.C.)
| | - Tian-Mu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
- Correspondence: (S.-X.T.); (Q.C.); (T.-M.C.); Tel.: +1-4242489768 (Q.C.); +86-13661934715 (T.-M.C.)
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Poltep K, Phadungsombat J, Nakayama EE, Kosoltanapiwat N, Hanboonkunupakarn B, Wiriyarat W, Shioda T, Leaungwutiwong P. Genetic Diversity of Dengue Virus in Clinical Specimens from Bangkok, Thailand, during 2018-2020: Co-Circulation of All Four Serotypes with Multiple Genotypes and/or Clades. Trop Med Infect Dis 2021; 6:tropicalmed6030162. [PMID: 34564546 PMCID: PMC8482112 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed6030162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2021] [Revised: 08/31/2021] [Accepted: 09/01/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is an arboviral disease highly endemic in Bangkok, Thailand. To characterize the current genetic diversity of dengue virus (DENV), we recruited patients with suspected DENV infection at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Bangkok, during 2018-2020. We determined complete nucleotide sequences of the DENV envelope region for 111 of 276 participant serum samples. All four DENV serotypes were detected, with the highest proportion being DENV-1. Although all DENV-1 sequences were genotype I, our DENV-1 sequences were divided into four distinct clades with different distributions in Asian countries. Two genotypes of DENV-2 were identified, Asian I and Cosmopolitan, which were further divided into two and three distinct clades, respectively. In DENV-3, in addition to the previously dominant genotype III, a cluster of 6 genotype I viruses only rarely reported in Thailand was also observed. All of the DENV-4 viruses belonged to genotype I, but they were separated into three distinct clades. These results indicated that all four serotypes of DENV with multiple genotypes and/or clades co-circulate in Bangkok. Continuous investigation of DENV is warranted to further determine the relationship between DENV within Thailand and neighboring countries in Southeast Asia and Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kanaporn Poltep
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (K.P.); (N.K.)
- Mahidol-Osaka Center for Infectious Diseases (MOCID), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (J.P.); (E.E.N.)
- The Monitoring and Surveillance Center for Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife and Exotic Animals, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand;
| | - Juthamas Phadungsombat
- Mahidol-Osaka Center for Infectious Diseases (MOCID), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (J.P.); (E.E.N.)
- Department of Viral Infections, Research Institute for Microbial Diseases (RIMD), Osaka University, Osaka 565-0871, Japan
| | - Emi E. Nakayama
- Mahidol-Osaka Center for Infectious Diseases (MOCID), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (J.P.); (E.E.N.)
- Department of Viral Infections, Research Institute for Microbial Diseases (RIMD), Osaka University, Osaka 565-0871, Japan
| | - Nathamon Kosoltanapiwat
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (K.P.); (N.K.)
| | - Borimas Hanboonkunupakarn
- Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand;
| | - Witthawat Wiriyarat
- The Monitoring and Surveillance Center for Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife and Exotic Animals, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand;
| | - Tatsuo Shioda
- Mahidol-Osaka Center for Infectious Diseases (MOCID), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (J.P.); (E.E.N.)
- Department of Viral Infections, Research Institute for Microbial Diseases (RIMD), Osaka University, Osaka 565-0871, Japan
- Correspondence: (T.S.); (P.L.)
| | - Pornsawan Leaungwutiwong
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (K.P.); (N.K.)
- Correspondence: (T.S.); (P.L.)
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Lee SA, Jarvis CI, Edmunds WJ, Economou T, Lowe R. Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions. J R Soc Interface 2021; 18:20210096. [PMID: 34034534 PMCID: PMC8150046 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 04/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatial connectivity plays an important role in mosquito-borne disease transmission. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared environments, vector ecology and human movement. This systematic review synthesizes the spatial methods used to model mosquito-borne diseases, their spatial connectivity assumptions and the data used to inform spatial model components. We identified 248 papers eligible for inclusion. Most used statistical models (84.2%), although mechanistic are increasingly used. We identified 17 spatial models which used one of four methods (spatial covariates, local regression, random effects/fields and movement matrices). Over 80% of studies assumed that connectivity was distance-based despite this approach ignoring distant connections and potentially oversimplifying the process of transmission. Studies were more likely to assume connectivity was driven by human movement if the disease was transmitted by an Aedes mosquito. Connectivity arising from human movement was more commonly assumed in studies using a mechanistic model, likely influenced by a lack of statistical models able to account for these connections. Although models have been increasing in complexity, it is important to select the most appropriate, parsimonious model available based on the research question, disease transmission process, the spatial scale and availability of data, and the way spatial connectivity is assumed to occur.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sophie A. Lee
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Christopher I. Jarvis
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - W. John Edmunds
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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