The impact of the COVID-19, social distancing, and movement restrictions on crime in NSW, Australia

The Impact of COVID-19 on Trends of Violence-Related Offences in Australia

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the medium-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on violence-related offences in Australia, and whether there was evidence of a 'dual pandemic' of family violence in addition to COVID-19.

METHODS

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series were conducted to analyse publicly available violent crime statistics data from January 2017 to November 2021. Population rates of homicide, sexual, domestic and non-domestic assault were assessed across each Australian state and territory, with the effects of COVID-19 being modelled using the average monthly World Health Organization COVID-19 stringency rating for each jurisdiction.

FINDINGS

All jurisdictions in Australia showed increasing or stable domestic assault trends over the past decade, which were not significantly impacted by COVID-19, nor by the subsequent lockdowns. Non-domestic assaults demonstrated a significant, negative relationship with the stringency index for each jurisdiction, except Western Australia. There was no significant change in the rates of homicide or sexual assault across Australia in relation to COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

Overall, there was no evidence of a 'dual pandemic' in Australia, and whilst domestic assaults continue to increase across the country, non-domestic assaults showed a notable but brief decline. However, these have returned to levels at least as high as pre-COVID-19 and some states show a continuing upward trend. The findings also suggest that alcohol availability may have played a role in continuing high violence numbers. Given the ongoing increasing and high levels of family violence in Australia, revised conceptual frameworks and interventions are indicated.

The impacts of COVID-19 lockdown and post-lockdown on homicide and rape in Bangladesh: A dynamic time series analysis

There are studies on crime trend changes during the pandemic lockdown, but very few on homicide and rape instances afterward. This study investigates how lockdown and post-lockdown pandemic situations affect homicide and rape cases in Bangladesh. Initially, the investigation checked the bidirectional Granger cause between COVID-19 and the trend of crimes (homicide and rape). The study found a unidirectional Granger cause of COVID-19 in crime trend changes. Further, the study used the ordinary least square (OLS) approach to a dynamic model to produce unbiased, consistent, and efficient conclusions for future policy implications. Compared to the crime rates during normal (pre-pandemic) times, this study found that homicides increased substantially (9.5%) during the lockdown and declined marginally (3.0%) afterward. The rate of rapes dropped considerably (34.3%) during the lockdown, but it rebounded significantly (13.9%) during the post-lockdown pandemic period. This study suggests further investigations of the causes of increased rape cases during the post-lockdown pandemic period in the country.

The Impact of Urban Facilities on Crime during the Pre- and Pandemic Periods: A Practical Study in Beijing

The measures in the fight against COVID-19 have reshaped the functions of urban facilities, which might cause the associated crimes to vary with the occurrence of the pandemic. This paper aimed to study this phenomenon by conducting quantitative research. By treating the area under the jurisdiction of the police station (AJPS) as spatial units, the residential burglary and non-motor vehicle theft that occurred during the first-level response to the public health emergencies (pandemic) period in 2020 and the corresponding temporal window (pre-pandemic) in 2019 were collected and a practical study to Beijing was made. The impact of urban facilities on crimes during both periods was analyzed independently by using negative binomial regression (NBR) and geographical weight regression (GWR). The findings demonstrated that during the pandemic period, a reduction in the count and spatial concentration of both property crimes were observed, and the impact of facilities on crime changed. Some facilities lost their impact on crime during the pandemic period, while other facilities played a significant role in generating crime. Additionally, the variables that always kept a stable significant impact on crime during the pre- and pandemic periods demonstrated a heterogeneous impact in space and experienced some variations across the periods. The study proved that the strategies in the fight against COVID-19 changed the impact of urban facilities on crime occurrence, which deeply reshaped the crime patterns.

Anti-social behaviour in the coronavirus pandemic

Anti-social behaviour recorded by police more than doubled early in the coronavirus pandemic in England and Wales. This was a stark contrast to the steep falls in most types of recorded crime. Why was ASB so different? Was it changes in 'traditional' ASB such as noisy neighbours, or was it ASB records of breaches of COVID-19 regulations? Further, why did police-recorded ASB find much larger early-pandemic increases than the Telephone Crime Survey for England and Wales? This study uses two approaches to address the issues. The first is a survey of police forces, via Freedom of Information requests, to determine whether COVID-regulation breaches were recorded as ASB. The second is natural language processing (NLP) used to interrogate the text details of police ASB records. We find police recording practice varied greatly between areas. We conclude that the early-pandemic increases in recorded ASB were primarily due to breaches of COVID regulations but around half of these also involved traditional forms of ASB. We also suggest that the study offers proof of concept that NLP may have significant general potential to exploit untapped police text records in ways that inform policing and crime policy.

Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime

OBJECTIVES

The present study examines how varying levels of restrictions on the nightlife economy have impacted violent crime during the COVID-19 pandemic and the extent to which the crime preventive side-effects of restrictions are associated with the density of alcohol outlets.

METHODS

The Data stems from geocoded locations of violent crimes combined with data on the density of on-premises alcohol outlets and the level of COVID-19 restrictions in Copenhagen, Denmark. We use a negative binomial count model with cluster robust standard error to assess the effect of the interaction between alcohol outlet density and COVID-related restriction levels on the nightlife economy on the frequency of violent crime.

RESULTS

The article reveals how both the level of restrictions on the nightlife economy and the density of alcohol outlets significantly impacted the frequency of violent crime. The regression analysis shows that the effect of restrictions on the nightlife economy depends on the concentration of on-premises alcohol outlets in the area. In areas with a high concentration of outlets, we observe a much higher reduction in crime as consequence of the COVID-19 related restrictions.

CONCLUSIONS

The results shows that a more restricted nightlife economy, including earlier closing times, could have a crime preventive effect, especially in areas with a high density of alcohol outlets.