Using density of antecedent events and trajectory path analysis to investigate family-correlated patterns of onset of bipolar I disorder: a comparison of cohorts from Europe and USA

Heterogeneous early illness courses of Korean patients with bipolar disorders: replication of the staging model

BACKGROUND

Clinical staging of bipolar disorder (BD) requires application of real-world data, as the next step in hypothesis. This study used the staging model to analyze the long-term course of BD in Korean patients based on clinical features and treatment responses to map the progression of bipolar illness from its early phase after the onset of illness.

METHODS

A total of 136 patients diagnosed with BD-I (n = 62) or BD-II (n = 74) were recruited. Their progressive stages were retrospectively evaluated. A multi-state model was used to calculate the probability of progression to each stage. Hazard ratios of covariates expected to influence different courses of BD were calculated. Using the Alda score, long-term responses to mood stabilizers depending on the current stage were compared.

RESULTS

Several sub-populations showed varied courses during the first five years after the onset of illness, with 41.5% remaining in stage 2 and 53% progressing to higher stages with shortened time for transition. Profiles of patients with BD-I and BD-II were different, suggesting biologically distinct groups. Comorbid psychiatric disorders, such as obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and bulimia nervosa (BN) were associated with a recurrent course (stage 3a or 3b) or a malignant course (stage 3c or 4). Early age of onset, shorter duration of illness, older age at the start of medication, and poor response to lithium affected the illness progression.

CONCLUSION

We were able to apply the stage model based on episode recurrence patterns in early illness courses of Korean patients with BD. The stage progression pattern differed from the early phase in BD-I and BD-II patients. Psychotic comorbidity, age at onset, age at starting psychiatric treatment showed associations with the illness progression.

A pilot study of new approaches to exploring illness trajectories and patterns of comorbidity in major mental disorders

AIMS

We explored lifetime comorbidities in clinical subsamples with a diagnosis of Psychosis (N = 143), bipolar (BD = 511), and unipolar disorders (UP = 861).

METHODS

We analyzed trajectories and patterns of comorbidities using novel metrics, namely bubble plots and density of antecedent events per year of illness exposure per individual.

RESULTS

Age at onset (AAO) of most comorbidities was similar to epidemiological studies, but cumulative rates were higher in clinical cases. There were some between group differences in patterns or burden of comorbidities, for example, Psychosis showed the earliest AAO of any mental disorder; UP showed the latest AAO of the index diagnosis. The relative risk of multimorbidity was lower in UP compared with other diagnoses, however, the goodness of fit for the illness trajectory path was lowest for BD.

CONCLUSIONS

Bubble plots offer a useful representation of timing, sequence, cumulative probability and of comorbidities, the added value of reporting density measures was less obvious.