An overview of group sequential methods in longitudinal clinical trials

Changing the Paradigm for the Treatment and Development of New Therapies for FSGS

Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) is a renal pathology finding that represents a constellation of rare kidney diseases, which manifest as proteinuria, edema nephrotic syndrome, hypertension, and increased risk for kidney failure. Therapeutic options for FSGS are reviewed displaying the expected efficacy from 25 to 69% depending on specific therapy, patient characteristics, cost, and common side effects. This variability in treatment response is likely caused, in part, by the heterogeneity in the etiology and active molecular mechanisms of FSGS. Clinical trials in FSGS have been scant in number and slow to recruit, which may stem, in part, from reliance on classic clinical trial design paradigms. Traditional clinical trial designs based on the "learn and confirm" paradigm may not be appropriate for rare diseases, such as FSGS. Future drug development and testing will require novel approaches to trial designs that have the capacity to enrich study populations and adapt the trial in a planned way to gain efficiencies in trial completion timelines. A clinical trial simulation is provided that compares a classical and more modern design to determine the maximum tolerated dose in FSGS.

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis, data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focused on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper, we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focuses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short- and long-term endpoints.

Natural killer cell differentiation from hematopoietic stem cells: a comparative analysis of heparin- and stromal cell-supported methods

Natural killer (NK) cells differentiated from hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) may have significant clinical benefits over NK cells from adult donors, including the ability to choose alloreactive donors and potentially more robust in vivo expansion. Stromal-based methods have been used to study the differentiation of NK cells from HSCs. Stroma and cytokines support NK cell differentiation, but may face considerable regulatory hurdles. A recently reported clinical-grade, heparin-based method could serve as an alternative. How the stromal-based and heparin-based approaches compare in terms of NK cell generating efficiency or function is unknown. We show that compared with heparin-based cultures, stroma significantly increases the yield of HSC-derived NK cells by differentiating less-committed progenitors into the NK lineage. NK cells generated by both approaches were similar for most NK-activating and -inhibiting receptors. Although both approaches resulted in a phenotype consistent with CD56(bright) stage IV NK cells, heparin-based cultures favored the development of CD56(+)CD16(+) cells, whereas stroma produced more NK cell immunoglobulin-like receptor-expressing NK cells, both of which are markers of terminal maturation. At day 21, stromal-based cultures demonstrated significantly more IL-22 production, and both methods yielded similar amounts of IFN-γ production and cytotoxicity by day 35. These findings suggest that heparin-based cultures are an effective replacement for stroma and may facilitate clinical trials testing HSC-derived NK cells.

Sequential analysis of longitudinal data in a prospective nested case-control study

The nested case-control design is a relatively new type of observational study whereby a case-control approach is employed within an established cohort. In this design, we observe cases and controls longitudinally by sampling all cases whenever they occur but controls at certain time points. Controls can be obtained at time points randomly scheduled or prefixed for operational convenience. This design with longitudinal observations is efficient in terms of cost and duration, especially when the disease is rare and the assessment of exposure levels is difficult. In our design, we propose sequential sampling methods and study both (group) sequential testing and estimation methods so that the study can be stopped as soon as the stopping rule is satisfied. To make such a longitudinal sampling more efficient in terms of both numbers of subjects and replications, we propose applying sequential sampling methods to subjects and replications, simultaneously, until the information criterion is fulfilled. This simultaneous sequential sampling on subjects and replicates is more flexible for practitioners designing their sampling schemes, and is different from the classical approaches used in longitudinal studies. We newly define the σ-field to accommodate our proposed sampling scheme, which contains mixtures of independent and correlated observations, and prove the asymptotic optimality of sequential estimation based on the martingale theories. We also prove that the independent increment structure is retained so that the group sequential method is applicable. Finally, we present results by employing sequential estimation and group sequential testing on both simulated data and real data on children's diarrhea.

Design of phase II ALS clinical trials

Several important design issues for clinical trials in ALS were presented at the World Federation of Neurology conference at the International Motor Neuron Disease meeting in Yokahama, Japan. We present a discussion, and critique, of the important ideas that were presented with regard to phase II trials. In particular we critique the use of 'Futility Designs' because, as presented at the meeting they will too often lead to the testing of ineffective drugs. We show that except under a highly restrictive model, the use of a 'Lead In' period has only a minor effect on trial efficiency. We show the advantage of using multi-drug phase II trials to select drugs for further study and the advantage of studies that combine phase II and III. We also describe how group sequential trials can be used to stop trials early.

Group sequential methods for an ordinal logistic random-effects model under misspecification

Interim analyses in clinical trials are planned for ethical as well as economic reasons. General results have been published in the literature that allow the use of standard group sequential methodology if one uses an efficient test statistic, e.g., when Wald-type statistics are used in random-effects models for ordinal longitudinal data. These models often assume that the random effects are normally distributed. However, this is not always the case. We will show that, when the random-effects distribution is misspecified in ordinal regression models, the joint distribution of the test statistics over the different interim analyses is still a multivariate normal distribution, but a sandwich-type correction to the covariance matrix is needed in order to obtain the correct covariance matrix. The independent increment structure is also investigated. A bias in estimation will occur due to the misspecification. However, we will also show that the treatment effect estimate will be unbiased under the null hypothesis, thus maintaining the type I error. Extensive simulations based on a toenail dermatophyte onychomycosis trial are used to illustrate our results.