Prognostic Model for De Novo and Recurrent Metastatic Breast Cancer

Treatment Patterns and Health Outcomes among Patients with HER2 IHC0/-Low Metastatic or Recurrent Breast Cancer

Improved understanding of the biological heterogeneity of breast cancer (BC) has facilitated the development of more effective and personalized approaches to treatment. This study describes real-world evidence on treatment patterns and outcomes for a population-based cohort of patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2) IHC0 and -low BC with de novo or recurrent disease from Alberta, Canada. Patients 18+ years old diagnosed with HER2 IHC0/-low, de novo/recurrent BC from 2010 to 2019 were identified using Alberta's cancer registry. Analyses of these patients' existing electronic medical records and administrative claims data were conducted to examine patient characteristics, treatment patterns, and survival outcomes. A total of 3413 patients were included in the study, of which 72.10% initiated first line hormonal and non-hormonal systemic therapy. The 1-year overall survival (OS) was 81.09% [95% CI, 79.52-82.69]. Recurrent patients had a higher OS compared to de novo patients: 54.30 months [95% CI, 47.80-61.90] vs. 31.5 months [95% CI, 28.40-35.90], respectively. Median OS was 43.4 months [95% CI, 40.70-47.10] and 35.80 months [95% CI, 29.00-41.70] among patients with HER2-low and HER2 IHC0 cancer, respectively. The study results provide real-world evidence regarding the clinical outcomes of HER2 IHC0/-low and de novo/recurrent disease.

Software Application Profile: dynamicLM-a tool for performing dynamic risk prediction using a landmark supermodel for survival data under competing risks

MOTIVATION

Providing a dynamic assessment of prognosis is essential for improved personalized medicine. The landmark model for survival data provides a potentially powerful solution to the dynamic prediction of disease progression. However, a general framework and a flexible implementation of the model that incorporates various outcomes, such as competing events, have been lacking. We present an R package, dynamicLM, a user-friendly tool for the landmark model for the dynamic prediction of survival data under competing risks, which includes various functions for data preparation, model development, prediction and evaluation of predictive performance.

IMPLEMENTATION

dynamicLM as an R package.

GENERAL FEATURES

The package includes options for incorporating time-varying covariates, capturing time-dependent effects of predictors and fitting a cause-specific landmark model for time-to-event data with or without competing risks. Tools for evaluating the prediction performance include time-dependent area under the ROC curve, Brier Score and calibration.

AVAILABILITY

Available on GitHub [https://github.com/thehanlab/dynamicLM].

Novel Prognostic Staging System for Patients With De Novo Metastatic Breast Cancer

PURPOSE

Given the heterogeneity and improvement in outcomes for metastatic breast cancer (MBC), we developed a staging system that refines prognostic estimates for patients with metastatic cancer at the time of initial diagnosis, de novo MBC (dnMBC), on the basis of survival outcomes and disease-related variables.

METHODS

Patients with dnMBC (2010-2016) were selected from the National Cancer Database (NCDB). Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to group patients with similar overall survival (OS) on the basis of clinical T category, grade, estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, histology, organ system site of metastases (bone-only, brain-only, visceral), and number of organ systems involved. Three-year OS rates were used to assign a final stage: IVA: >70%, IVB: 50%-70%, IVC: 25 to <50%, and IVD: <25%. Bootstrapping was applied with 1,000 iterations, and final stage assignments were made based on the most commonly occurring assignment. Unadjusted OS was estimated. Validation analyses were conducted using SEER and NCDB.

RESULTS

At a median follow-up of 52.9 months, the median OS of the original cohort (N = 42,467) was 35.4 months (95% CI, 34.8 to 35.9). RPA stratified patients into 53 groups with 3-year OS rates ranging from 73.5% to 5.7%; these groups were amalgamated into four stage groups: 3-year OS, A = 73.2%, B = 61.9%, C = 40.1%, and D = 17% (log-rank P < .001). After bootstrapping, the survival outcomes for the four stages remained significantly different (log-rank P < .001). This staging system was then validated using SEER data (N = 20,469) and a separate cohort from the NCDB (N = 7,645) (both log-rank P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Our findings regarding the heterogeneity in outcomes for patients with dnMBC could guide future revisions of the current American Joint Committee on Cancer staging guidelines for patients with newly diagnosed stage IV disease. Our findings should be independently confirmed.

Demographic and Clinical Features of Patients with Metastatic Breast Cancer: A Retrospective Multicenter Registry Study of the Turkish Oncology Group

This multicenter registry study aims to analyze time-related changes in the treatment patterns and outcome of patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) over a ten-year period. Correlations between demographic, prognostic variables and survival outcomes were carried out in database aggregates consisting of cohorts based on disease presentation (recurrent vs. de novo) and the diagnosis date of MBC (Cohort I: patient diagnosed between January 2010 and December 2014; and Cohort II: between January 2015 and December 2019). Out of 1382 patients analyzed, 52.3% patients had recurrent disease, with an increased frequency over time (47.9% in Cohort I vs. 56.1% in Cohort II, p < 0.001). In recurrent patients, 38.4% (n = 277) relapsed within two years from initial diagnosis, among which triple-negative BC (TNBC) was the most frequent (51.7%). Median overall survival (OS) was 51.0 (48.0–55.0) months for all patients, which was similar across both cohorts. HER2+ subtype had the highest OS among subgroups (HER2+ vs. HR+ vs. TNBC; 57 vs. 52 vs. 27 months, p < 0.001), and the dnMBC group showed a better outcome than recMBC (53 vs. 47 months, p = 0.013). Despite the lack of CDK inhibitors, luminal A patients receiving endocrine therapy had a favorable outcome (70 months), constituting an appealing approach with limited resources. The only survival improvement during the timeframe was observed in HER2+ dnMBC patients (3-year OS Cohort I: 62% vs. Cohort II: 84.7%, p = 0.009). The incorporation of targeted agents within standard treatment has improved the outcome in HER2+ MBC patients over time. Nevertheless, despite advances in early diagnosis and treatment, the prognosis of patients with TNBC remains poor, highlighting the need for more effective treatment options.