Mathematical models of cancer stem cells

Cellular automata modelling of leukaemic stem cell dynamics in acute myeloid leukaemia: insights into predictive outcomes and targeted therapies

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is a haematologic malignancy with high relapse rates in both adults and children. Leukaemic stem cells (LSCs) are central to leukaemopoiesis, treatment response and relapse and frequently associated with measurable residual disease (MRD). However, the dynamics of LSCs within the AML microenvironment is not fully understood. This study utilized three-dimensional cellular automata (CA) modelling to simulate LSC behaviour and treatment response under induction chemotherapy. Our study revealed: (i) a correlation between LSC persistence post-induction chemotherapy and risk of AML relapse; (ii) MRD negativity based on LSC count may not reliably predict outcomes, supporting clinical evidence that patients with MRD-negative status can still be at risk of relapse; (iii) prolonged persistence of LSCs post-chemotherapy without disruption of normal haematopoiesis, aligning with clinical observations of dormant AML clones; (iv) early LSC dynamics post-induction chemotherapy, characterized by stochastic behaviours and movement velocities, are insufficient predictors of long-term prognosis; and (v) a distinct spatiotemporal organization of LSCs in later phases post-induction chemotherapy is correlated with long-term outcomes. Our modelling results provide a theoretical and clinical framework for AML research, and future clinical data validation could refine the utility of CA modelling for oncological studies.

Effects of a differentiating therapy on cancer-stem-cell-driven tumors

The growth of many solid tumors has been found to be driven by chemo- and radiotherapy-resistant cancer stem cells (CSCs). A suitable therapeutic avenue in these cases may involve the use of a differentiating agent (DA) to force the differentiation of the CSCs and of conventional therapies to eliminate the remaining differentiated cancer cells (DCCs). To describe the effects of a DA that reprograms CSCs into DCCs, we adapt a differential equation model developed to investigate tumorspheres, which are assumed to consist of jointly evolving CSC and DCC populations. We analyze the mathematical properties of the model, finding the equilibria and their stability. We also present numerical solutions and phase diagrams to describe the system evolution and the therapy effects, denoting the DA strength by a parameter adif. To obtain realistic predictions, we choose the other model parameters to be those determined previously from fits to various experimental datasets. These datasets characterize the progression of the tumor under various culture conditions. Typically, for small values of adif the tumor evolves towards a final state that contains a CSC fraction, but a strong therapy leads to the suppression of this phenotype. Nonetheless, different external conditions lead to very diverse behaviors. For microchamber-grown tumorspheres, there is a threshold in therapy strength below which both subpopulations survive, while high values of adif lead to the complete elimination of the CSC phenotype. For tumorspheres grown on hard and soft agar and in the presence of growth factors, the model predicts a threshold not only in the therapy strength, but also in its starting time, an early beginning being potentially crucial. In summary, our model shows how the effects of a DA depend critically not only on the dosage and timing of the drug application, but also on the tumor nature and its environment.

Mathematical modelling identifies conditions for maintaining and escaping feedback control in the intestinal epithelium

The intestinal epithelium is one of the fastest renewing tissues in mammals. It shows a hierarchical organisation, where intestinal stem cells at the base of crypts give rise to rapidly dividing transit amplifying cells that in turn renew the pool of short-lived differentiated cells. Upon injury and stem-cell loss, cells can also de-differentiate. Tissue homeostasis requires a tightly regulated balance of differentiation and stem cell proliferation, and failure can lead to tissue extinction or to unbounded growth and cancerous lesions. Here, we present a two-compartment mathematical model of intestinal epithelium population dynamics that includes a known feedback inhibition of stem cell differentiation by differentiated cells. The model shows that feedback regulation stabilises the number of differentiated cells as these become invariant to changes in their apoptosis rate. Stability of the system is largely independent of feedback strength and shape, but specific thresholds exist which if bypassed cause unbounded growth. When dedifferentiation is added to the model, we find that the system can recover faster after certain external perturbations. However, dedifferentiation makes the system more prone to losing homeostasis. Taken together, our mathematical model shows how a feedback-controlled hierarchical tissue can maintain homeostasis and can be robust to many external perturbations.

MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF PANCREATIC CANCER TREATMENT WITH CANCER STEM CELLS

Of all cancers, pancreatic cancer has a significantly low rate of survival, mostly due to lack of early screening. Thus, once detected, pancreatic cancer is usually in later stages, reducing the likelihood of full recovery. The most common treatment strategy is chemotherapy, although several immunotherapeutic drugs show promising results in extending the patient’s lifespan. In this paper, we provide a validated mathematical model for the pancreatic cancer after fitting the parameter values, such as tumor growth rate, inverse carrying capacity, activation and decay rate of pancreatic stellate cells, with the use of the experimental data presented by Cioffi et al. cioffi2015inhibition For treatments with the chemotherapeutic drugs, Abraxane and Gemcitabine, and the immunotherapeutic drug, Anti-CD47, we modified the model accurately and compared the simulation results with the experimental data not only to model pancreatic cancer treatment correctly but also to move forward with other drug trials. Then, we include the cancer stem cells, which are known to initiate tumors and cause a relapse post-chemotherapy, per cancer stem cell hypothesis so that cancer progression can be assessed based on this phenomenon. In addition, we investigate optimal drug protocols. We find out that the most effective treatment is dual therapy due to extending survival time when compared to other drugs. Moreover, this study reveals that drug dose is more effectual than frequency of drug injection on account of different treatment scheduling with the same dose over a week. The model could be a starting point to investigate pancreatic cancer progression based on cancer stem cell hypothesis and shed light on novel drug discoveries.

MATHEMATICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF HETEROGENEITY IN A CANCER STEM CELL DRIVEN TUMOR GROWTH MODEL WITH NONLINEAR SELF-RENEWAL

The detection, in a wide variety of cancer types, of a population of highly tumorigenic cells that exhibit self-renewal and multipotency, which are hallmarks of stem cells, has transformed the current view of tumor initiation, progression, and treatment. Here, we develop and analyze a mathematical model for tumor growth that is based on the current biological understanding of the processes that underlie cellular expansion under the hierarchical guidelines of the cancer stem cell (CSC) hypothesis. Important features of the model include (i) a nonlinear probability of CSC self-renewal that reflects the fact that this key type of stem cell division can be regulated by extrinsic and intrinsic chemical signaling as well as environmental (niche) constraints and (ii) an amplification factor that captures the transient amplifying divisions that are a defining characteristic of progenitor cells. We present a thorough mathematical analysis of the model and highlight the conditions required for tumors to evolve toward either bounded or exponential growth. Numerical simulations further illustrate the impact of the various parameters on the tumor growth rate and on the heterogeneous cellular composition, which varies during progression.

The ecology of cancer differentiation therapy

A promising, yet still under development approach to cancer treatment is based on the idea of differentiation therapy (DTH). Most tumours are characterized by poorly differentiated cell populations exhibiting a marked loss of traits associated to communication and tissue homeostasis. DTH has been suggested as an alternative (or complement) to cytotoxic-based approaches, and has proven successful in some specific types of cancer such as acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). While novel drugs favouring the activation of differentiation therapies are being tested, several open problems emerge in relation to its effectiveness on solid tumors. Here we present a mathematical framework to DTH based on a well-known ecological model used to describe habitat loss. The models presented here account for some of the observed clinical and in vitro outcomes of DTH, providing relevant insight into potential therapy design. Furthermore, the same ecological approach is tested in a hierarchical model that accounts for cancer stem cells, highlighting the role of niche specificity in CSC therapy resistance. We show that the lessons learnt from metapopulation ecology can help guide future developments and potential difficulties of DTH.

Effect of feedback regulation on stem cell fractions in tissues and tumors: Understanding chemoresistance in cancer

While resistance mutations are often implicated in the failure of cancer therapy, lack of response also occurs without such mutants. In bladder cancer mouse xenografts, repeated chemotherapy cycles have resulted in cancer stem cell (CSC) enrichment, and consequent loss of therapy response due to the reduced susceptibility of CSCs to drugs. A particular feedback loop present in the xenografts has been shown to promote CSC enrichment in this system. Yet, many other regulatory loops might also be operational and might promote CSC enrichment. Their identification is central to improving therapy response. Here, we perform a comprehensive mathematical analysis to define what types of regulatory feedback loops can and cannot contribute to CSC enrichment, providing guidance to the experimental identification of feedback molecules. We derive a formula that reveals whether or not the cell population experiences CSC enrichment over time, based on the properties of the feedback. We find that negative feedback on the CSC division rate or positive feedback on differentiated cell death rate can lead to CSC enrichment. Further, the feedback mediators that achieve CSC enrichment can be secreted by either CSCs or by more differentiated cells. The extent of enrichment is determined by the CSC death rate, the CSC self-renewal probability, and by feedback strength. Defining these general characteristics of feedback loops can guide the experimental screening for and identification of feedback mediators that can promote CSC enrichment in bladder cancer and potentially other tumors. This can help understand and overcome the phenomenon of CSC-based therapy resistance.

A Mathematical Model to Study the Effectiveness of Some of the Strategies Adopted in Curtailing the Spread of COVID-19

In this paper, we developed a model that suggests the use of robots in identifying COVID-19-positive patients and which studied the effectiveness of the government policy of prohibiting migration of individuals into their countries especially from those countries that were known to have COVID-19 epidemic. Two compartmental models consisting of two equations each were constructed. The models studied the use of robots for the identification of COVID-19-positive patients. The effect of migration ban strategy was also studied. Four biologically meaningful equilibrium points were found. Their local stability analysis was also carried out. Numerical simulations were carried out, and the most effective strategy to curtail the spread of the disease was shown.

Global dynamics of healthy and cancer cells competing in the hematopoietic system

Stem cells in the bone marrow differentiate to ultimately become mature, functioning blood cells through a tightly regulated process (hematopoiesis) including a stem cell niche interaction and feedback through the immune system. Mutations in a hematopoietic stem cell can create a cancer stem cell leading to a less controlled production of malfunctioning cells in the hematopoietic system. This was mathematically modelled by Andersen et al. (2017) including the dynamic variables: healthy and cancer stem cells and mature cells, dead cells and an immune system response. Here, we apply a quasi steady state approximation to this model to construct a two dimensional model with four algebraic equations denoted the simple cancitis model. The two dynamic variables are the clinically available quantities JAK2V617F allele burden and the number of white blood cells. The simple cancitis model represents the original model very well. Complete phase space analysis of the simple cancitis model is performed, including proving the existence and location of globally attracting steady states. Hence, parameter values from compartments of stem cells, mature cells and immune cells are directly linked to disease and treatment prognosis, showing the crucial importance of early intervention. The simple cancitis model allows for a complete analysis of the long term evolution of trajectories. In particular, the value of the self renewal of the hematopoietic stem cells divided by the self renewal of the cancer stem cells is found to be an important diagnostic marker and perturbing this parameter value at intervention allows the model to reproduce clinical data. Treatment at low cancer cell numbers allows returning to healthy blood production while the same intervention at a later disease stage can lead to eradication of healthy blood producing cells. Assuming the total number of white blood cells is constant in the early cancer phase while the allele burden increases, a one dimensional model is suggested and explicitly solved, including parameters from all original compartments. The solution explicitly shows that exogenous inflammation promotes blood cancer when cancer stem cells reproduce more efficiently than hematopoietic stem cells.

A Mathematical Model of the Transition from Normal Hematopoiesis to the Chronic and Accelerated-Acute Stages in Myeloid Leukemia

A mathematical model given by a two-dimensional differential system is introduced in order to understand the transition process from the normal hematopoiesis to the chronic and accelerated-acute stages in chronic myeloid leukemia. A previous model of Dingli and Michor is refined by introducing a new parameter in order to differentiate the bone marrow microenvironment sensitivities of normal and mutant stem cells. In the light of the new parameter, the system now has three distinct equilibria corresponding to the normal hematopoietic state, to the chronic state, and to the accelerated-acute phase of the disease. A characterization of the three hematopoietic states is obtained based on the stability analysis. Numerical simulations are included to illustrate the theoretical results.

The recent advances in the mathematical modelling of human pluripotent stem cells

Human pluripotent stem cells hold great promise for developments in regenerative medicine and drug design. The mathematical modelling of stem cells and their properties is necessary to understand and quantify key behaviours and develop non-invasive prognostic modelling tools to assist in the optimisation of laboratory experiments. Here, the recent advances in the mathematical modelling of hPSCs are discussed, including cell kinematics, cell proliferation and colony formation, and pluripotency and differentiation.

Mathematical modeling reveals the factors involved in the phenomena of cancer stem cells stabilization

Cancer Stem Cells (CSC), a subset of cancer cells resembling normal stem cells with self-renewal and asymmetric division capabilities, are present at various but low proportions in many tumors and are thought to be responsible for tumor relapses following conventional cancer therapies. In vitro, most intriguingly, isolated CSCs rapidly regenerate the original population of stem and non-stem cells (non-CSCs) as shown by various investigators. This phenomenon still remains to be explained. We propose a mathematical model of cancer cell population dynamics, based on the main parameters of cell population growth, including the proliferation rates, the rates of cell death and the frequency of symmetric and asymmetric cell divisions both in CSCs and non-CSCs sub-populations, and taking into account the stabilization phenomenon. The analysis of the model allows determination of time-varying corridors of probabilities for different cell fates, given the particular dynamics of cancer cells populations; and determination of a cell-cell communication factors influencing these time-varying probabilities of cell behavior (division, transition) scenarios. Though the results of the model have to be experimentally confirmed, we can anticipate the development of several fundamental and practical applications based on the theoretical results of the model.

Mathematical modeling of bone marrow - peripheral blood dynamics in the disease state based on current emerging paradigms, part II

The cancer stem cell hypothesis has gained currency in recent times but concerns remain about its scientific foundations because of significant gaps that exist between research findings and comprehensive knowledge about cancer stem cells (CSCs). In this light, a mathematical model that considers hematopoietic dynamics in the diseased state of the bone marrow and peripheral blood is proposed and used to address findings about CSCs. The ensuing model, resulting from a modification and refinement of a recent model, develops out of the position that mathematical models of CSC development, that are few at this time, are needed to provide insightful underpinnings for biomedical findings about CSCs as the CSC idea gains traction. Accordingly, the mathematical challenges brought on by the model that mirror general challenges in dealing with nonlinear phenomena are discussed and placed in context. The proposed model describes the logical occurrence of discrete time delays, that by themselves present mathematical challenges, in the evolving cell populations under consideration. Under the challenging circumstances, the steady state properties of the model system of delay differential equations are obtained, analyzed, and the resulting mathematical predictions arising therefrom are interpreted and placed within the framework of findings regarding CSCs. Simulations of the model are carried out by considering various parameter scenarios that reflect different experimental situations involving disease evolution in human hosts. Model analyses and simulations suggest that the emergence of the cancer stem cell population alongside other malignant cells engenders higher dimensions of complexity in the evolution of malignancy in the bone marrow and peripheral blood at the expense of healthy hematopoietic development. The model predicts the evolution of an aberrant environment in which the malignant population particularly in the bone marrow shows tendencies of reaching an uncontrollable equilibrium state. Essentially, the model shows that a structural relationship exists between CSCs and non-stem malignant cells that confers on CSCs the role of temporally enhancing and stimulating the expansion of non-stem malignant cells while also benefitting from increases in their own population and these CSCs may be the main protagonists that drive the ultimate evolution of the uncontrollable equilibrium state of such malignant cells and these may have implications for treatment.

Effect of cellular de-differentiation on the dynamics and evolution of tissue and tumor cells in mathematical models with feedback regulation

Tissues are maintained by adult stem cells that self-renew and also differentiate into functioning tissue cells. Homeostasis is achieved by a set of complex mechanisms that involve regulatory feedback loops. Similarly, tumors are believed to be maintained by a minority population of cancer stem cells, while the bulk of the tumor is made up of more differentiated cells, and there is indication that some of the feedback loops that operate in tissues continue to be functional in tumors. Mathematical models of such tissue hierarchies, including feedback loops, have been analyzed in a variety of different contexts. Apart from stem cells giving rise to differentiated cells, it has also been observed that more differentiated cells can de-differentiate into stem cells, both in healthy tissue and tumors, aspects of which have also been investigated mathematically. This paper analyses the effect of de-differentiation on the basic and evolutionary dynamics of cells in the context of tissue hierarchy models that include negative feedback regulation of the cell populations. The models predict that in the presence of de-differentiation, the fixation probability of a neutral mutant is lower than in its absence. Therefore, if de-differentiation occurs, a mutant with identical parameters compared to the wild-type cell population behaves like a disadvantageous mutant. Similarly, the process of de-differentiation is found to lower the fixation probability of an advantageous mutant. These results indicate that the presence of de-differentiation can lower the rates of tumor initiation and progression in the context of the models considered here.

Emerging functional markers for cancer stem cell-based therapies: Understanding signaling networks for targeting metastasis

Metastasis is one of the most challenging issues in cancer patient management, and effective therapies to specifically target disease progression are missing, emphasizing the urgent need for developing novel anti-metastatic therapeutics. Cancer stem cells (CSCs) gained fast attention as a minor population of highly malignant cells within liquid and solid tumors that are responsible for tumor onset, self-renewal, resistance to radio- and chemotherapies, and evasion of immune surveillance accelerating recurrence and metastasis. Recent progress in the identification of their phenotypic and molecular characteristics and interactions with the tumor microenvironment provides great potential for the development of CSC-based targeted therapies and radical improvement in metastasis prevention and cancer patient prognosis. Here, we report on newly uncovered signaling mechanisms controlling CSC's aggressiveness and treatment resistance, and CSC-specific agents and molecular therapeutics, some of which are currently under investigation in clinical trials, gearing towards decisive functional CSC intrinsic or surface markers. One special research focus rests upon subverted regulatory pathways such as insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor signaling and its interactors in metastasis-initiating cell populations directly related to the gain of stem cell- and EMT-associated properties, as well as key components of the E2F transcription factor network regulating metastatic progression, microenvironmental changes, and chemoresistance. In addition, the study provides insight into systems biology tools to establish complex molecular relationships behind the emergence of aggressive phenotypes from high-throughput data that rely on network-based analysis and their use to investigate immune escape mechanisms or predict clinical outcome-relevant CSC receptor signaling signatures. We further propose that customized vector technologies could drastically enhance systemic drug delivery to target sites, and summarize recent progress and remaining challenges. This review integrates available knowledge on CSC biology, computational modeling approaches, molecular targeting strategies, and delivery techniques to envision future clinical therapies designed to conquer metastasis-initiating cells.

Chronic myeloid leukemia: the paradigm of targeting oncogenic tyrosine kinase signaling and counteracting resistance for successful cancer therapy

Deregulated activity of BCR-ABL1, a nonreceptor tyrosine kinase encoded by the fusion gene resulting from the t(9;22)(q34;q11) chromosomal translocation, is thought to be the driver event responsible for initiation and maintenance of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). BCR-ABL1 was one of the first tyrosine kinases to be implicated in a human malignancy and the first to be successfully targeted. Imatinib mesylate, the first tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) to be approved for therapeutic use, was hailed as a magic bullet against cancer and remains one of the safest and most effective anticancer agents ever developed. Second- and third-generation TKIs were later introduced to prevent or counteract the problem of drug resistance, that may arise in a small proportion of patients. They are more potent molecules, but have been associated to more serious side effects and complications. Patients achieving stable optimal responses to TKI therapy are predicted to have the same life expectancy of the general population. However, TKIs do not ‘cure’ CML. Only a small proportion of cases may attempt therapy discontinuation without experiencing subsequent relapse. The great majority of patients will have to assume TKIs indefinitely – which raises serious pharmacoeconomic concerns and is now shifting the focus from efficacy to compliance and quality of life issues. Here we retrace the steps that have led from the biological acquisitions regarding BCR-ABL1 structure and function to the development of inhibitory strategies and we discuss drug resistance mechanism and how they can be addressed.

Modeling of Interactions between Cancer Stem Cells and their Microenvironment: Predicting Clinical Response

Mathematical models of cancer stem cells are useful in translational cancer research for facilitating the understanding of tumor growth dynamics and for predicting treatment response and resistance to combined targeted therapies. In this chapter, we describe appealing aspects of different methods used in mathematical oncology and discuss compelling questions in oncology that can be addressed with these modeling techniques. We describe a simplified version of a model of the breast cancer stem cell niche, illustrate the visualization of the model, and apply stochastic simulation to generate full distributions and average trajectories of cell type populations over time. We further discuss the advent of single-cell data in studying cancer stem cell heterogeneity and how these data can be integrated with modeling to advance understanding of the dynamics of invasive and proliferative populations during cancer progression and response to therapy.

Mathematical modelling as a proof of concept for MPNs as a human inflammation model for cancer development

The chronic Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are acquired stem cell neoplasms which ultimately may transform to acute myelogenous leukemia. Most recently, chronic inflammation has been described as an important factor for the development and progression of MPNs in the biological continuum from early cancer stage to the advanced myelofibrosis stage, the MPNs being described as "A Human Inflammation Model for Cancer Development". This novel concept has been built upon clinical, experimental, genomic, immunological and not least epidemiological studies. Only a few studies have described the development of MPNs by mathematical models, and none have addressed the role of inflammation for clonal evolution and disease progression. Herein, we aim at using mathematical modelling to substantiate the concept of chronic inflammation as an important trigger and driver of MPNs.The basics of the model describe the proliferation from stem cells to mature cells including mutations of healthy stem cells to become malignant stem cells. We include a simple inflammatory coupling coping with cell death and affecting the basic model beneath. First, we describe the system without feedbacks or regulatory interactions. Next, we introduce inflammatory feedback into the system. Finally, we include other feedbacks and regulatory interactions forming the inflammatory-MPN model. Using mathematical modeling, we add further proof to the concept that chronic inflammation may be both a trigger of clonal evolution and an important driving force for MPN disease progression. Our findings support intervention at the earliest stage of cancer development to target the malignant clone and dampen concomitant inflammation.

Dynamical models of mutated chronic myelogenous leukemia cells for a post-imatinib treatment scenario: Response to dasatinib or nilotinib therapy

Targeted inhibition of the oncogenic BCR-ABL1 fusion protein using the ABL1 tyrosine kinase inhibitor imatinib has become standard therapy for chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML), with most patients reaching total and durable remission. However, a significant fraction of patients develop resistance, commonly due to mutated ABL1 kinase domains. This motivated development of second-generation drugs with broadened or altered protein kinase selectivity profiles, including dasatinib and nilotinib. Imatinib-resistant patients undergoing treatment with second-line drugs typically develop resistance to them, but dynamic and clonal properties of this response differ. Shared, however, is the observation of clonal competition, reflected in patterns of successive dominance of individual clones. We present three deterministic mathematical models to study the origins of clinically observed dynamics. Each model is a system of coupled first-order differential equations, considering populations of three mutated active stem cell strains and three associated pools of differentiated cells; two models allow for activation of quiescent stem cells. Each approach is distinguished by the way proliferation rates of the primary stem cell reservoir are modulated. Previous studies have concentrated on simulating the response of wild-type leukemic cells to imatinib administration; our focus is on modelling the time dependence of imatinib-resistant clones upon subsequent exposure to dasatinib or nilotinib. Performance of the three computational schemes to reproduce selected CML patient profiles is assessed. While some simple cases can be approximated by a basic design that does not invoke quiescence, others are more complex and require involvement of non-cycling stem cells for reproduction. We implement a new feedback mechanism for regulation of coupling between cycling and non-cycling stem cell reservoirs that depends on total cell populations. A bifurcation landscape analysis is also performed for solutions to the basic ansatz. Computational models reproducing patient data illustrate potential dynamic mechanisms that may guide optimization of therapy of drug resistant CML.

Near Equilibrium Calculus of Stem Cells in Application to the Airway Epithelium Lineage

Homeostatic maintenance of tissues is orchestrated by well tuned networks of cellular signaling. Such networks regulate, in a stochastic manner, fates of all cells within the respective lineages. Processes such as symmetric and asymmetric divisions, differentiation, de-differentiation, and death have to be controlled in a dynamic fashion, such that the cell population is maintained at a stable equilibrium, has a sufficiently low level of stochastic variation, and is capable of responding efficiently to external damage. Cellular lineages in real tissues may consist of a number of different cell types, connected by hierarchical relationships, albeit not necessarily linear, and engaged in a number of different processes. Here we develop a general mathematical methodology for near equilibrium studies of arbitrarily complex hierarchical cell populations, under regulation by a control network. This methodology allows us to (1) determine stability properties of the network, (2) calculate the stochastic variance, and (3) predict how different control mechanisms affect stability and robustness of the system. We demonstrate the versatility of this tool by using the example of the airway epithelium lineage. Recent research shows that airway epithelium stem cells divide mostly asymmetrically, while the so-called secretory cells divide predominantly symmetrically. It further provides quantitative data on the recovery dynamics of the airway epithelium, which can include secretory cell de-differentiation. Using our new methodology, we demonstrate that while a number of regulatory networks can be compatible with the observed recovery behavior, the observed division patterns of cells are the most optimal from the viewpoint of homeostatic lineage stability and minimizing the variation of the cell population size. This not only explains the observed yet poorly understood features of airway tissue architecture, but also helps to deduce the information on the still largely hypothetical regulatory mechanisms governing tissue turnover, and lends insight into how different control loops influence the stability and variance properties of cell populations.

Tissue stability is the basic property of healthy organs, and yet the mechanisms governing the stable, long-term maintenance of cell numbers in tissues are poorly understood. While more and more signaling pathways are being discovered, for the most part it remains unknown how they are being put together by different cell types into complex, nonlinear, hierarchical control networks that, on the one hand, reliably maintain constant cell numbers, and on the other hand, quickly adjust to oversee the robust response to tissue damage. Theoretical approaches can fill the gap by being able to reconstruct the underlying control network, based on the observations about the aspects of cellular dynamics. We argue that while many hypothetical networks may be capable of basic cell lineage maintenance, some are much more efficient from the viewpoint of variance minimization. Thus, we developed a new methodology that can test various control networks for stability, variance, and robustness. In the example of the airway epithelium that we highlight, it turns out that the evolutionary selected, actual architecture coincides with the mathematically optimal solution that minimizes the fluctuations of cell numbers at homeostasis.

Mathematical modeling of bone marrow--peripheral blood dynamics in the disease state based on current emerging paradigms, part I

Stemming from current emerging paradigms related to the cancer stem cell hypothesis, an existing mathematical model is expanded and used to study cell interaction dynamics in the bone marrow and peripheral blood. The proposed mathematical model is described by a system of nonlinear differential equations with delay, to quantify the dynamics in abnormal hematopoiesis. The steady states of the model are analytically and numerically obtained. Some conditions for the local asymptotic stability of such states are investigated. Model analyses suggest that malignancy may be irreversible once it evolves from a nonmalignant state into a malignant one and no intervention takes place. This leads to the proposition that a great deal of emphasis be placed on cancer prevention. Nevertheless, should malignancy arise, treatment programs for its containment or curtailment may have to include a maximum and extensive level of effort to protect normal cells from eventual destruction. Further model analyses and simulations predict that in the untreated disease state, there is an evolution towards a situation in which malignant cells dominate the entire bone marrow - peripheral blood system. Arguments are then advanced regarding requirements for quantitatively understanding cancer stem cell behavior. Among the suggested requirements are, mathematical frameworks for describing the dynamics of cancer initiation and progression, the response to treatment, the evolution of resistance, and malignancy prevention dynamics within the bone marrow - peripheral blood architecture.

The Role of Symmetric Stem Cell Divisions in Tissue Homeostasis

Successful maintenance of cellular lineages critically depends on the fate decision dynamics of stem cells (SCs) upon division. There are three possible strategies with respect to SC fate decision symmetry: (a) asymmetric mode, when each and every SC division produces one SC and one non-SC progeny; (b) symmetric mode, when 50% of all divisions produce two SCs and another 50%-two non-SC progeny; (c) mixed mode, when both the asymmetric and two types of symmetric SC divisions co-exist and are partitioned so that long-term net balance of the lineage output stays constant. Theoretically, either of these strategies can achieve lineage homeostasis. However, it remains unclear which strategy(s) are more advantageous and under what specific circumstances, and what minimal control mechanisms are required to operate them. Here we used stochastic modeling to analyze and quantify the ability of different types of divisions to maintain long-term lineage homeostasis, in the context of different control networks. Using the example of a two-component lineage, consisting of SCs and one type of non-SC progeny, we show that its tight homeostatic control is not necessarily associated with purely asymmetric divisions. Through stochastic analysis and simulations we show that asymmetric divisions can either stabilize or destabilize the lineage system, depending on the underlying control network. We further apply our computational model to biological observations in the context of a two-component lineage of mouse epidermis, where autonomous lineage control has been proposed and notable regional differences, in terms of symmetric division ratio, have been noted-higher in thickened epidermis of the paw skin as compared to ear and tail skin. By using our model we propose a possible explanation for the regional differences in epidermal lineage control strategies. We demonstrate how symmetric divisions can work to stabilize paw epidermis lineage, which experiences high level of micro-injuries and a lack of hair follicles as a back-up source of SCs.

Current Challenges in Glioblastoma: Intratumour Heterogeneity, Residual Disease, and Models to Predict Disease Recurrence

Glioblastoma (GB) is the most common primary malignant brain tumor, and despite the availability of chemotherapy and radiotherapy to combat the disease, overall survival remains low with a high incidence of tumor recurrence. Technological advances are continually improving our understanding of the disease, and in particular, our knowledge of clonal evolution, intratumor heterogeneity, and possible reservoirs of residual disease. These may inform how we approach clinical treatment and recurrence in GB. Mathematical modeling (including neural networks) and strategies such as multiple sampling during tumor resection and genetic analysis of circulating cancer cells, may be of great future benefit to help predict the nature of residual disease and resistance to standard and molecular therapies in GB.

Modeling Spontaneous Metastasis following Surgery: An In Vivo-In Silico Approach

Rapid improvements in the detection and tracking of early-stage tumor progression aim to guide decisions regarding cancer treatments as well as predict metastatic recurrence in patients following surgery. Mathematical models may have the potential to further assist in estimating metastatic risk, particularly when paired with in vivo tumor data that faithfully represent all stages of disease progression. Herein, we describe mathematical analysis that uses data from mouse models of spontaneous metastasis developing after surgical removal of orthotopically implanted primary tumors. Both presurgical (primary tumor) growth and postsurgical (metastatic) growth were quantified using bioluminescence and were then used to generate a mathematical formalism based on general laws of the disease (i.e., dissemination and growth). The model was able to fit and predict pre/postsurgical data at the level of the individual as well as the population. Our approach also enabled retrospective analysis of clinical data describing the probability of metastatic relapse as a function of primary tumor size. In these data-based models, interindividual variability was quantified by a key parameter of intrinsic metastatic potential. Critically, our analysis identified a highly nonlinear relationship between primary tumor size and postsurgical survival, suggesting possible threshold limits for the utility of tumor size as a predictor of metastatic recurrence. These findings represent a novel use of clinically relevant models to assess the impact of surgery on metastatic potential and may guide optimal timing of treatments in neoadjuvant (presurgical) and adjuvant (postsurgical) settings to maximize patient benefit.

Modeling of Cancer Stem Cell State Transitions Predicts Therapeutic Response

Cancer stem cells (CSCs) possess capacity to both self-renew and generate all cells within a tumor, and are thought to drive tumor recurrence. Targeting the stem cell niche to eradicate CSCs represents an important area of therapeutic development. The complex nature of many interacting elements of the stem cell niche, including both intracellular signals and microenvironmental growth factors and cytokines, creates a challenge in choosing which elements to target, alone or in combination. Stochastic stimulation techniques allow for the careful study of complex systems in biology and medicine and are ideal for the investigation of strategies aimed at CSC eradication. We present a mathematical model of the breast cancer stem cell (BCSC) niche to predict population dynamics during carcinogenesis and in response to treatment. Using data from cell line and mouse xenograft experiments, we estimate rates of interconversion between mesenchymal and epithelial states in BCSCs and find that EMT/MET transitions occur frequently. We examine bulk tumor growth dynamics in response to alterations in the rate of symmetric self-renewal of BCSCs and find that small changes in BCSC behavior can give rise to the Gompertzian growth pattern observed in breast tumors. Finally, we examine stochastic reaction kinetic simulations in which elements of the breast cancer stem cell niche are inhibited individually and in combination. We find that slowing self-renewal and disrupting the positive feedback loop between IL-6, Stat3 activation, and NF-κB signaling by simultaneous inhibition of IL-6 and HER2 is the most effective combination to eliminate both mesenchymal and epithelial populations of BCSCs. Predictions from our model and simulations show excellent agreement with experimental data showing the efficacy of combined HER2 and Il-6 blockade in reducing BCSC populations. Our findings will be directly examined in a planned clinical trial of combined HER2 and IL-6 targeted therapy in HER2-positive breast cancer.

Analysis of stochastic stem cell models with control

Understanding the dynamics of stem cell lineages is of central importance both for healthy and cancerous tissues. We study stochastic population dynamics of stem cells and differentiated cells, where cell decisions, such as proliferation vs. differentiation decisions, or division and death decisions, are under regulation from surrounding cells. The goal is to understand how different types of control mechanisms affect the means and variances of cell numbers. We use the assumption of weak dependencies of the regulatory functions (the controls) on the cell populations near the equilibrium to formulate moment equations. We then study three different methods of closure, showing that they all lead to the same results for the highest order terms in the expressions for the moments. We derive simple explicit expressions for the means and the variances of stem cell and differentiated cell numbers. It turns out that the variance is expressed as an algebraic function of partial derivatives of the controls with respect to the population sizes at the equilibrium. We demonstrate that these findings are consistent with the results previously obtained in the context of particular systems, and also present two novel examples with negative and positive control of division and differentiation decisions. This methodology is formulated without any specific assumptions on the functional form of the controls, and thus can be used for any biological system.

Stem cell regulation: Implications when differentiated cells regulate symmetric stem cell division

We use a mathematical model to show that if symmetric stem cell division is regulated by differentiated cells, then changes in the population dynamics of the differentiated cells can lead to changes in the population dynamics of the stem cells. More precisely, the relative fitness of the stem cells can be affected by modifying the death rate of the differentiated cells. This result is interesting because stem cells are less sensitive than differentiated cells to environmental factors, such as medical therapy. Our result implies that stem cells can be manipulated indirectly by medical treatments that target the differentiated cells.

An agent-based model of cancer stem cell initiated avascular tumour growth and metastasis: the effect of seeding frequency and location

It is very important to understand the onset and growth pattern of breast primary tumours as well as their metastatic dissemination. In most cases, it is the metastatic disease that ultimately kills the patient. There is increasing evidence that cancer stem cells are closely linked to the progression of the metastatic tumour. Here, we investigate stem cell seeding to an avascular tumour site using an agent-based stochastic model of breast cancer metastatic seeding. The model includes several important cellular features such as stem cell symmetric and asymmetric division, migration, cellular quiescence, senescence, apoptosis and cell division cycles. It also includes external features such as stem cell seeding frequency and location. Using this model, we find that cell seeding rate and location are important features for tumour growth. We also define conditions in which the tumour growth exhibits decremented and exponential growth patterns. Overall, we find that seeding, senescence and division limit affect not only the number of stem cells, but also their spatial and temporal distribution.

Cancer stem cells: small subpopulation or evolving fraction?

This review discusses quantitative modeling studies of stem and non-stem cancer cell interactions and the fraction of cancer stem cells.

Chemotherapy in heterogeneous cultures of cancer cells with interconversion

Recently, the interconversion between differentiated and stem-like cancer cells has been observed. Here, we model the in vitro growth of heterogeneous cell cultures in the presence of interconversion from differentiated cancer cells to cancer stem cells (CSCs), showing that, by targeting only CSC with cytotoxic agents, it is not always possible to eradicate cancer. We have determined the kinetic conditions under which cytotoxic agents in in vitro heterogeneous cultures of cancer cells eradicate cancer. In particular, we have shown that the chemotherapeutic elimination of in vitro cultures of heterogeneous cancer cells is effective only if it targets all cancer cell types, and if the induced death rates for the different subpopulations of cancer cell types are large enough. The quantitative results of the model are compared and validated with experimental data.

Re-evaluating the role of BCR/ABL in chronic myelogenous leukemia

Chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) requires the BCR/ABL tyrosine kinase for disease onset and maintenance. As a result, CML can be successfully treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) such as imatinib. Most patients are maintained in a disease-suppressed state on daily TKI therapy for several years and in many cases this treatment prevents progression to the blast phase. If the TKI is discontinued, CML redevelops in 95% of patients as a result of persisting leukemia initiating cells (LICs). There are several hypotheses that describe the potential mechanism(s) responsible for LIC persistence in CML, but supporting evidence is limited. Furthermore, of the few patients who discontinue TKI therapy and are "cured" (i.e., in treatment-free remission), most have residual BCR/ABL-expressing cells in their hematopoietic tissues. There are also healthy individuals without a CML diagnosis who express the BCR/ABL mutation in a fraction of their hematopoietic cells. Finally, mice that express BCR/ABL from the Bcr locus as a knockin mutation do not develop CML. These mice have lower BCR/ABL levels than retroviral or transgenic models of BCR/ABL that do develop CML. Understanding why mice with BCR/ABL expressed from the Bcr locus and some people that express BCR/ABL are not afflicted with CML will provide insights into therapies to prevent or cure this disease.

Stochastic control of proliferation and differentiation in stem cell dynamics

In self-renewing tissues, cell lineages consisting of stem cell and classes of daughter cells are the basic units which are responsible for the correct functioning of the organ. Cell proliferation and differentiation in lineages is thought to be mediated by feedback signals. In the simplest case a lineage is comprised of stem cells and differentiated cells. We create a model where stem cell proliferation and differentiation are controlled by the size of cell populations by means of a negative feedback loop. This two-dimensional Markov process allows for an analytical solution for the mean numbers and variances of stem and daughter cells. The mean values and the amounts of variation in cell numbers can be tightly regulated by the parameters of the control loop.

Systems mapping of genes controlling chemotherapeutic drug efficiency for cancer stem cells

Cancer can be controlled effectively by using chemotherapeutic drugs to inhibit cancer stem cells, but there is considerable inter-patient variability regarding how these cells respond to drug intervention. Here, we describe a statistical framework for mapping genes that control tumor responses to chemotherapeutic drugs as well as the efficacy of treatments in arresting tumor growth. The framework integrates the mathematical aspects of the cancer stem cell hypothesis into genetic association studies, equipped with a capacity to quantify the magnitude and pattern of genetic effects on the kinetic decline of cancer stem cells in response to therapy. By quantifying how specific genes and their interactions govern drug response, the model provides essential information to tailor personalized drugs for individual patients.

A 3D multiscale model of cancer stem cell in tumor development

Background

Recent reports indicate that a subgroup of tumor cells named cancer stem cells (CSCs) or tumor initiating cells (TICs) are responsible for tumor initiation, growth and drug resistance. This subgroup of tumor cells has self-renewal capacity and could differentiate into heterogeneous tumor cell populations through asymmetric proliferation. The idea of CSC provides informative insights into tumor initiation, metastasis and treatment. However, the underlying mechanisms of CSCs regulating tumor behaviors are unclear due to the complex cancer system. To study the functions of CSCs in the complex tumor system, a few mathematical modeling studies have been proposed. Whereas, the effect of microenvironment (mE) factors, the behaviors of CSCs, progenitor tumor cells (PCs) and differentiated tumor cells (TCs), and the impact of CSC fraction and signaling heterogeneity, are not adequately explored yet.

Methods

In this study, a novel 3D multi-scale mathematical modeling is proposed to investigate the behaviors of CSCsin tumor progressions. The model integrates CSCs, PCs, and TCs together with a few essential mE factors. With this model, we simulated and investigated the tumor development and drug response under different CSC content and heterogeneity.

Results

The simulation results shown that the fraction of CSCs plays a critical role in driving the tumor progression and drug resistance. It is also showed that the pure chemo-drug treatment was not a successful treatment, as it resulted in a significant increase of the CSC fraction. It further shown that the self-renew heterogeneity of the initial CSC population is a cause of the heterogeneity of the derived tumors in terms of the CSC fraction and response to drug treatments.

Conclusions

The proposed 3D multi-scale model provides a new tool for investigating the behaviors of CSC in CSC-initiated tumors, which enables scientists to investigate and generate testable hypotheses about CSCs in tumor development and drug response under different microenvironments and drug perturbations.

Symmetric vs. asymmetric stem cell divisions: an adaptation against cancer?

Traditionally, it has been held that a central characteristic of stem cells is their ability to divide asymmetrically. Recent advances in inducible genetic labeling provided ample evidence that symmetric stem cell divisions play an important role in adult mammalian homeostasis. It is well understood that the two types of cell divisions differ in terms of the stem cells' flexibility to expand when needed. On the contrary, the implications of symmetric and asymmetric divisions for mutation accumulation are still poorly understood. In this paper we study a stochastic model of a renewing tissue, and address the optimization problem of tissue architecture in the context of mutant production. Specifically, we study the process of tumor suppressor gene inactivation which usually takes place as a consequence of two “hits”, and which is one of the most common patterns in carcinogenesis. We compare and contrast symmetric and asymmetric (and mixed) stem cell divisions, and focus on the rate at which double-hit mutants are generated. It turns out that symmetrically-dividing cells generate such mutants at a rate which is significantly lower than that of asymmetrically-dividing cells. This result holds whether single-hit (intermediate) mutants are disadvantageous, neutral, or advantageous. It is also independent on whether the carcinogenic double-hit mutants are produced only among the stem cells or also among more specialized cells. We argue that symmetric stem cell divisions in mammals could be an adaptation which helps delay the onset of cancers. We further investigate the question of the optimal fraction of stem cells in the tissue, and quantify the contribution of non-stem cells in mutant production. Our work provides a hypothesis to explain the observation that in mammalian cells, symmetric patterns of stem cell division seem to be very common.

Population dynamics of cancer cells with cell state conversions

Cancer stem cell (CSC) theory suggests a cell-lineage structure in tumor cells in which CSCs are capable of giving rise to the other non-stem cancer cells (NSCCs) but not vice versa. However, an alternative scenario of bidirectional interconversions between CSCs and NSCCs was proposed very recently. Here we present a general population model of cancer cells by integrating conventional cell divisions with direct conversions between different cell states, namely, not only can CSCs differentiate into NSCCs by asymmetric cell division, NSCCs can also dedifferentiate into CSCs by cell state conversion. Our theoretical model is validated when applying the model to recent experimental data. It is also found that the transient increase in CSCs proportion initiated from the purified NSCCs subpopulation cannot be well predicted by the conventional CSC model where the conversion from NSCCs to CSCs is forbidden, implying that the cell state conversion is required especially for the transient dynamics. The theoretical analysis also gives the condition such that our general model can be equivalently reduced into a simple Markov chain with only cell state transitions keeping the same cell proportion dynamics.

Cancer Stem Cells: A Minor Cancer Subpopulation that Redefines Global Cancer Features

In recent years cancer stem cells (CSCs) have been hypothesized to comprise only a minor subpopulation in solid tumors that drives tumor initiation, progression, and metastasis; the so-called “cancer stem cell hypothesis.” While a seemingly trivial statement about numbers, much is put at stake. If true, the conclusions of many studies of cancer cell populations could be challenged, as the bulk assay methods upon which they depend have, by, and large, taken for granted the notion that a “typical” cell of the population possesses the attributes of a cell capable of perpetuating the cancer, i.e., a CSC. In support of the CSC hypothesis, populations enriched for so-called “tumor-initiating” cells have demonstrated a corresponding increase in tumorigenicity as measured by dilution assay, although estimates have varied widely as to what the fractional contribution of tumor-initiating cells is in any given population. Some have taken this variability to suggest the CSC fraction may be nearly 100% after all, countering the CSC hypothesis, and that there are simply assay-dependent error rates in our ability to “reconfirm” CSC status at the cell level. To explore this controversy more quantitatively, we developed a simple cellular automaton model of CSC-driven tumor growth dynamics. Assuming CSC and non-stem cancer cells (CC) subpopulations coexist to some degree, we evaluated the impact of an environmentally dependent CSC symmetric division probability and a CC proliferation capacity on tumor progression and morphology. Our model predicts, as expected, that the frequency of CSC divisions that are symmetric highly influences the frequency of CSCs in the population, but goes on to predict the two frequencies can be widely divergent, and that spatial constraints will tend to increase the CSC fraction over time. Further, tumor progression times show a marked dependence on both the frequency of CSC divisions that are symmetric and on the proliferation capacities of CC. Together, these findings can explain, within the CSC hypothesis, the widely varying measures of stem cell fractions observed. In particular, although the CSC fraction is influenced by the (environmentally modifiable) CSC symmetric division probability, with the former converging to unity as the latter nears 100%, the CSC fraction becomes quite small even for symmetric division probabilities modestly lower than 100%. In the latter case, the tumor exhibits a clustered morphology and the CSC fraction steadily increases with time; more so on both counts when the death rate of CCs is higher. Such variations in CSC fraction and morphology are not only consistent with the CSC hypothesis, but lend support to it as one expected byproduct of the dynamical interactions that are predicted to take place among a relatively small CSC population, its CC counterpart, and the host compartment over time.

Applying ecological and evolutionary theory to cancer: a long and winding road

Since the mid 1970s, cancer has been described as a process of Darwinian evolution, with somatic cellular selection and evolution being the fundamental processes leading to malignancy and its many manifestations (neoangiogenesis, evasion of the immune system, metastasis, and resistance to therapies). Historically, little attention has been placed on applications of evolutionary biology to understanding and controlling neoplastic progression and to prevent therapeutic failures. This is now beginning to change, and there is a growing international interest in the interface between cancer and evolutionary biology. The objective of this introduction is first to describe the basic ideas and concepts linking evolutionary biology to cancer. We then present four major fronts where the evolutionary perspective is most developed, namely laboratory and clinical models, mathematical models, databases, and techniques and assays. Finally, we discuss several of the most promising challenges and future prospects in this interdisciplinary research direction in the war against cancer.

Multispecies model of cell lineages and feedback control in solid tumors

We develop a multispecies continuum model to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of cell lineages in solid tumors. The model accounts for protein signaling factors produced by cells in lineages, and nutrients supplied by the microenvironment. Together, these regulate the rates of proliferation, self-renewal and differentiation of cells within the lineages, and control cell population sizes and distributions. Terminally differentiated cells release proteins (e.g., from the TGFβ superfamily) that feedback upon less differentiated cells in the lineage both to promote differentiation and decrease rates of proliferation (and self-renewal). Stem cells release a short-range factor that promotes self-renewal (e.g., representative of Wnt signaling factors), as well as a long-range inhibitor of this factor (e.g., representative of Wnt inhibitors such as Dkk and SFRPs). We find that the progression of the tumors and their response to treatment is controlled by the spatiotemporal dynamics of the signaling processes. The model predicts the development of spatiotemporal heterogeneous distributions of the feedback factors (Wnt, Dkk and TGFβ) and tumor cell populations with clusters of stem cells appearing at the tumor boundary, consistent with recent experiments. The nonlinear coupling between the heterogeneous expressions of growth factors and the heterogeneous distributions of cell populations at different lineage stages tends to create asymmetry in tumor shape that may sufficiently alter otherwise homeostatic feedback so as to favor escape from growth control. This occurs in a setting of invasive fingering, and enhanced aggressiveness after standard therapeutic interventions. We find, however, that combination therapy involving differentiation promoters and radiotherapy is very effective in eradicating such a tumor.

Do cancer cells undergo phenotypic switching? The case for imperfect cancer stem cell markers

The identification of cancer stem cells in vivo and in vitro relies on specific surface markers that should allow to sort cancer cells in phenotypically distinct subpopulations. Experiments report that sorted cancer cell populations after some time tend to express again all the original markers, leading to the hypothesis of phenotypic switching, according to which cancer cells can transform stochastically into cancer stem cells. Here we explore an alternative explanation based on the hypothesis that markers are not perfect and are thus unable to identify all cancer stem cells. Our analysis is based on a mathematical model for cancer cell proliferation that takes into account phenotypic switching, imperfect markers and error in the sorting process. Our conclusion is that the observation of reversible expression of surface markers after sorting does not provide sufficient evidence in support of phenotypic switching.