Determinants of Early Mortality Among 37,568 Patients With Colon Cancer Who Participated in 25 Clinical Trials From the Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints Database

Renal impairment and abnormal liver function tests in pre-therapeutic phenotype-based DPD deficiency screening using uracilemia: a comprehensive population-based study in 1138 patients

Background

Dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) deficiency screening is a pre-therapeutic standard to prevent severe fluoropyrimidine-related toxicity. Although several screening methods exist, the accuracy of their results remains debatable. In France, the uracilemia measurement is considered the standard in DPD deficiency screening. The objective of this study was to describe the hyperuracilemia (⩾16 ng/mL) rate and investigate the influence of hepatic and renal impairment in uracilemia measurements since the guidelines were implemented.

Patients and methods

Using a cohort of 1138 patients screened between 18 October 2018 and 18 October 2021, basic demographic characteristics, date of blood sampling, and potential biological confounders including liver function tests [aspartate aminotransaminase (AST), alanine aminotransaminase (ALT), gamma-glutamyl transferase (γGT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and bilirubin] and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were collected. The second same-patient uracilemia analysis was also performed. Temporal change was graphically represented while potential confounders were stratified to show linearity when suspected.

Results

Hyperuracilemia was diagnosed in 12.7% (n = 150) samples with 6.7%, 5.4%, 0.5%, and 0.08% between 16 and 20 ng/mL, 20 and 50 ng/mL, 50 and 150 ng/mL, and >150 ng/mL, respectively. The median uracilemia concentration was 9.4 ng/mL (range: 1.2 and 172.3 ng/mL) and the monthly hyperuracilemia rate decreased steadily from >30% to around 9%. Older age, normalized AST, γGT, ALP results, bilirubin levels, and decreased eGFR were linearly associated with higher plasma uracil concentrations (all p < 0.001). In the adjusted multivariate linear model, AST, eGFR, and ALP remained associated with uracilemia (p < 0.05). When measured twice in 39 patients, the median uracilemia rate of change was -2.5%, which subsequently changed the diagnosis in nine patients (23.1%).

Conclusions

Better respect of pre-analytical conditions may explain the steady decrease in monthly hyperuracilemia rates over the 3 years. Elevated AST, ALP levels, and reduced eGFR could induce a false increase in uracilemia and second uracilemia measurements modified the first DPD deficiency diagnosis in almost 25% of the patients.

Transportability Methods for Time-to-Event Outcomes: Application in Adjuvant Colon Cancer Trials

PURPOSE

Differences in the benefits of treatment on 5-year overall survival have been observed in 12 randomized phase III colon cancer adjuvant clinical trials from the ACCENT group. We investigated the reasons for these differences by incorporating the distribution of the observed covariates from each trial.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We applied state-of-the-art transportability methods on the basis of causal inference, and compared them with a conventional meta-analysis approach to predict the treatment effect for the target population. Prediction errors were defined to evaluate whether the identifiability conditions necessary for causal inference were satisfied among the 12 trials, and to measure the performance of each method.

RESULTS

In the one-trial-at-a-time transportability analysis, the ranks of prediction errors for the target population were mostly consistent with the discrepancy in treatment effects among the 12 trials across the three models. The overall prediction errors between the leave-one-trial-out transportability method and the conventional individual participant data meta-analysis approach were very similar, and more than 40% lower than the overall prediction errors from the one-trial-at-a-time transportability method.

CONCLUSION

The discrepancy in treatment effects among the 12 trials is unlikely to arise from the choice of model specification or distribution of observed covariates but from the distribution of unobserved covariates or study-level features. The ability to quantify heterogeneity among the 12 trials was greatly reduced in both the leave-one-trial-out transportability method and the conventional meta-analysis approach compared with the one-trial-at-a-time transportability method.

Geriatric functional assessment for decision-making on adjuvant chemotherapy in older colon cancer patients

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Despite the increasing need for geriatric assessment prior to chemotherapy, the method for this assessment remains inadequate for older cancer patients. We aimed to propose a simple assessment method to predict the performance of adjuvant chemotherapy in older patients after colon cancer surgery.

METHODS

This prospective study included patients over 65 years of age who were scheduled for adjuvant chemotherapy after colon cancer surgery. Before initiating chemotherapy, their functional status was assessed on the basis of activities of daily living (ADL)/instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). These parameters were analyzed with clinical characteristics and the patterns of adjuvant chemotherapy. The focus was on the completion rate of adjuvant chemotherapy.

RESULTS

A total of 89 patients with a median age of 72 years were analyzed. Among them, 54 (61%) were non-impaired and 35 (39%) were impaired regarding their ADL/IADL classification. Low body mass index and impairment of ADL/IADLs were significantly associated with chemotherapy interruption. Among toxicities, fatigue and hand-foot syndrome were independent prognostic factors for chemotherapy interruption. Impairments of ADL/IADL were significantly associated with fatigue regardless of age. Based on age and ADL/IADL stratification, younger patients (≤ 72 years) and/or those who were ADL/IADL non-impaired were significantly more likely to complete adjuvant chemotherapy than older patients (> 72 years) and ADL/IADL impaired patients (p = 0.038). This was regardless of the chemotherapy regimen.

CONCLUSION

Functional assessment using ADL/IADL is a convenient method to predict chemotherapy toxicity and performance. These results suggested that routine screening for ADL/IADLs could guide appropriate patient selection for the completion of adjuvant chemotherapy and predict expected outcomes.

Incorporation of functional status, frailty, comorbidities, and co-medication in prediction models for colorectal cancer survival

Limitations in functional status, frailty, multiple comorbidities, and co-medications are common among older colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. We investigated whether adding these factors could improve the predictive value of a reference model containing age, sex, tumor stage and location for prediction of 5-year overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), disease-specific survival (DSS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and non-disease-specific survival (nDSS) for all CRC patients as well as for younger (<65 years) and older patients (≥65 years). Overall, 3,410 CRC patients from the DACHS study were analyzed and area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and net reclassification improvements (NRI) were assessed. In prediction of OS, the reference model plus functional status was identified as the best model among all CRC patients (AUC: 0.762) and younger CRC patients (AUC: 0.820). In older CRC patients, comorbidity should additionally be added (AUC: 0.747). For nDSS, the reference model plus comorbidity and frailty had the best predictive performance in all CRC patients (AUC: 0.776). For the outcomes DFS (AUC: 0. 727), DSS (AUC: 0. 838), and RFS (AUC: 0. 784), the reference model was already the best model in all CRC patients because no significant NRIs were observed. The pattern "The less CRC-specific the survival outcome and the older the CRC patients, the more relevant the inclusion of functional status, comorbidity, and frailty in CRC prognostic scores is" was observed. Thus, different nomograms for younger and older CRC patients for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS prognosis estimation are being suggested.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

The survival impact of multi-agent (MAC) compared with single-agent (SAC) adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) in elderly patients with stage III colon cancer (CC) remains controversial. The aim of this study was to compare survival outcomes of MAC and SAC in this population utilizing the National Cancer Database (NCDB).

Patients and Methods

Patients aged ≥70 years with pathological stage III CC diagnosed in 2004-2015 were identified in the NCDB. Univariate and multivariable analyses were conducted, and Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify associations between MAC vs. SAC and overall survival (OS).

Results

Among 41 707 elderly patients (≥70 years old) with stage III CC, about half (n = 20 257; 48.5%) received AC; the majority (n = 12 923, 63.8%) received MAC. The median age was 79 (range 70-90). The majority were female (n = 11 201, 55.3%), Caucasians (88%) and had moderately differentiated tumor grade (n = 12 619, 62.3%), tumor size >4 cm (11 785, 58.2%), and negative surgical margins (18 496, 91.3%). Low-risk stage III CC constituted 50.6% (n = 10 264) of the study population. High-risk stage III CC was associated with worse OS compared with low-risk disease (HR 0.35, 0.34-0.36, P < .001). Multi-agent chemotherapy was associated with a better 5-year OS compared with SAC (P < .001). High-risk stage III patients who received MAC vs. SAC had an OS of 4.2 vs. 3.4 years, respectively (P < .001). Low-risk stage III patients who received MAC vs. SAC had a median OS of 8.5 vs. 7 years (P < .001). In univariate and multivariable analyses, male sex, positive surgical margin, insurance and facility types, age, year of diagnosis, tumor size, and Charlson-Deyo score of >2 were associated with worse OS (P < .05).

Conclusions

Any adjuvant chemotherapy has a trend of survival benefits. Multi-agent chemotherapy seems to have an enhanced benefit in the 70-75 age group. Multi-agent chemotherapy seemed to have similar efficacy as SAC in those aged >76 years.

Pathogenic DPYD Variants and Treatment-Related Mortality in Patients Receiving Fluoropyrimidine Chemotherapy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Pathogenic variants of the DPYD gene are strongly associated with grade ≥3 toxicity during fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the risk of treatment-related death associated with DPYD gene variants.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched for reports published prior to September 17, 2020, that described patients receiving standard-dose fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy (5-fluorouracil or capecitabine) who had baseline testing for at least one of four pathogenic DPYD variants (c.1129-5923C>G [HapB3], c.1679T>G [*13], c.1905+1G>A [*2A], and c.2846A>T) and were assessed for toxicity. Two reviewers assessed studies for inclusion and extracted study-level data. The primary outcome was the relative risk of treatment-related mortality for DPYD variant carriers versus noncarriers; we performed data synthesis using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed effects model.

RESULTS

Of the 2,923 references screened, 35 studies involving 13,929 patients were included. DPYD variants (heterozygous or homozygous) were identified in 566 patients (4.1%). There were 14 treatment-related deaths in 13,363 patients without identified DPYD variants (treatment-related mortality, 0.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1-0.2) and 13 treatment-related deaths in 566 patients with any of the four DPYD variants (treatment-related mortality, 2.3%; 95% CI, 1.3%-3.9%). Carriers of pathogenic DPYD gene variants had a 25.6 times increased risk of treatment-related death (95% CI, 12.1-53.9; p < .001). After excluding carriers of the more common but less deleterious c.1129-5923C>G variant, carriers of c.1679T>G, c.1905+1G>A, and/or c.2846A>T had treatment-related mortality of 3.7%.

CONCLUSION

Patients with pathogenic DPYD gene variants who receive standard-dose fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy have greatly increased risk for treatment-related death.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

The syndrome of dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) deficiency is an uncommon but well-described cause of severe toxicity related to fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy agents (5-fluorouracil and capecitabine). Patients with latent DPD deficiency can be identified preemptively with genotyping of the DPYD gene, or with measurement of the plasma uracil concentration. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, the authors study the rare outcome of treatment-related death after fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy. DPYD gene variants associated with DPD deficiency were linked to a 25.6 times increased risk of fluoropyrimidine-related mortality. These findings support the clinical utility of DPYD genotyping as a screening test for DPD deficiency.

Adjuvant Therapies in Colon Cancer

Most of the patients with localized colon cancer undergo curative resection. However, significant number of patients will recur with metastatic disease, especially those with node positive cancer. Adjuvant chemotherapy has shown to improve cure rate and survival by eradicating micrometastases. The benefit of adjuvant therapy is well established in node-positive cancers, while their role in stage II cancer is not well defined. A number of molecular markers have been identified that are prognostic and/or predictive in colon cancer. Such molecular markers, and other clinicopathological features play an important role in selection of appropriate therapy and duration of treatment. Emerging evidence for the utility of genomic profiling or detection of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) are promising which may further facilitate decision making in the future. This chapter reviews the evolution of adjuvant therapy for resected colon cancer, the current evidence and the factors influence the choice of therapy.

Derivation and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting 90-Day Survival in Patients With HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Background: Conventional prognostic models do not fully reflect the severity of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). This study aimed to establish an effective and convenient nomogram for patients with HBV-related ACLF.

Methods: A nomogram was developed based on a retrospective cohort of 1,353 patients treated at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2010 to June 2016. The predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability of the nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve, and were compared with current scoring systems. The results were validated using an independent retrospective cohort of 669 patients consecutively treated at the same institution from July 2016 to March 2018. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03992898).

Results: Multivariable analysis of the derivation cohort found that independent predictors of 90-day survival were age, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin (Hb), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio, serum creatinine (Cr), alpha fetoprotein (AFP), serum sodium (Na), hepatic encephalopathy (HE), pre-existing chronic liver disease(PreLD), and HBV DNA load. All factors were included in the nomogram. The nomogram calibration curve for the probability of 90-day survival indicated that nomogram-based predictions were in good agreement with actual observations. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.790, which was statistically significantly greater than those for the current scoring systems in the derivation cohort (P < 0.001). The results were confirmed in the validation cohort.

Conclusions: The proposed nomogram is more accurate in predicting the 90-day survival of patients with HBV-related ACLF than current commonly used methods.

Clinical Decision Support for High-Risk Stage II Colon Cancer: A Real-World Study of Treatment Concordance and Survival

BACKGROUND

Prognostic and pathologic risk factors typically guide clinicians and patients in their choice of surveillance or adjuvant chemotherapy when managing high-risk stage II colon cancer. However, variations in treatment and outcomes in patients with stage II colon cancer remain.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the survival benefits of treatments concordant with suggested therapeutic options from Watson for Oncology, a clinical decision support system.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective observational study of concordance between actual treatment and Watson for Oncology therapeutic options.

SETTING

This study was conducted at a top-tier cancer center in China.

PATIENTS

Postoperative treatment data were retrieved from the electronic health records of 306 patients with high-risk stage II colon adenocarcinoma.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcomes measured were the treatment patterns plus 3- and 5-year overall and disease-free survival for concordant and nonconcordant cases.

RESULTS

Overall concordance was 90%. Most nonconcordant care resulted from adjuvant chemotherapy use (rather than surveillance) in patients with high-level microsatellite instability and ≥70 years old. No difference in overall survival (p = 0.56) or disease-free survival (p = 0.19) was observed between concordance groups. Patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy had significantly higher 5-year overall survival than those undergoing surveillance (94% vs 84%, p = 0.01).

LIMITATIONS

This study was limited by the use of retrospective cases drawn from patients presenting for surgery, the lack of complete follow-up data for 58% of patients who could not be included in the analysis, and a survival analysis that assumes no unmeasured correlation between survival and censoring.

CONCLUSIONS

Watson for Oncology produced therapeutic options highly concordant with human decisions at a top-tier cancer center in China. Treatment patterns suggest that Watson for Oncology may be able to guide clinicians to minimize overtreatment of patients with high-risk stage II colon cancer with chemotherapy. Survival analyses suggest the need for further investigation to specifically assess the association between surveillance, single-agent and multiagent chemotherapy, and survival outcomes in this population. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B291. APOYO A LA DECISIÓN CLÍNICA DEL CÁNCER DE COLON EN ESTADIO II DE ALTO RIESGO: UN ESTUDIO DEL MUNDO REAL SOBRE LA CONCORDANCIA DEL TRATAMIENTO Y LA SUPERVIVENCIA: Los factores de riesgo pronósticos y patológicos generalmente guían a los médicos y pacientes en su elección de vigilancia o quimioterapia adyuvante cuando se trata el cáncer de colon en estadio II de alto riesgo. Sin embargo, las variaciones en el tratamiento y los resultados en pacientes con cáncer de colon en estadio II permanecen.Evaluar los beneficios de supervivencia de los tratamientos concordantes con las opciones terapéuticas sugeridas por "Watson for Oncology" (Watson para la oncología), un sistema de apoyo a la decisión clínica.Estudio observacional retrospectivo de concordancia entre el tratamiento real y las opciones terapéuticas de Watson para oncología.Un centro oncológico de primer nivel en China.Datos de tratamiento postoperatorio de registros de salud electrónicos de 306 pacientes con adenocarcinoma de colon en estadio II de alto riesgo.Patrones de tratamiento más supervivencia global y libre de enfermedad a 3 y 5 años para casos concordantes y no concordantes.La concordancia general fue del 90%. La mayoría de la atención no concordante resultó del uso de quimioterapia adyuvante (en lugar de vigilancia) en pacientes de alto nivel con inestabilidad de microsatélites y pacientes ≥70 años. No se observaron diferencias en la supervivencia global (p = 0,56) o la supervivencia libre de enfermedad (p = 0,19) entre los grupos de concordancia. Los pacientes que recibieron quimioterapia adyuvante tuvieron una supervivencia global a los 5 años significativamente más alta que los que fueron sometidos a vigilancia (94% frente a 84%, p = 0,01).Uso de casos retrospectivos extraídos de pacientes que se presentan para cirugía, falta de datos de seguimiento completos para el 58% de los pacientes que no pudieron ser incluidos en el análisis, y análisis de supervivencia que asume que no exite una correlación no medida entre supervivencia y censura.Watson para Oncología produjo opciones terapéuticas altamente concordantes con las decisiones humanas en un centro oncológico de primer nivel en China. Los patrones de tratamiento sugieren que Watson para Oncología puede guiar a los médicos para minimizar el sobretratamiento de pacientes con cáncer de colon en estadio II de alto riesgo con quimioterapia. Los análisis de supervivencia sugieren la necesidad de realizar mas investigaciónes para evaluar específicamente la asociación entre la vigilancia, la quimioterapia con uno solo o múltiples agentes y los resultados de supervivencia en esta población. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B291. (Traducción-Dr. Gonzalo Hagerman).

Prognostic Nomogram for Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: A Comprehensive Analysis of 673 Patients

Objective

Despite that the survival rate in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (cALL) is excellent, subsets of high-risk patients with cALL still have high relapse rates, and the cure rate is well below that for which we should aim. The present study aims to construct a prognostic nomogram to better inform clinical practitioners and improve risk stratification for clinical trials.

Methods

The developed nomogram was based on the therapeutically applicable research to generate effective treatment (TARGET) database. With this database, we obtained 673 cALL patients with complete clinical information. We identified and integrated significant prognostic factors to build the nomogram model by univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of ROC analysis. Internal validations were assessed by the bootstrapping validation.

Results

In the multivariate analysis of the primary cohort, the independent factors for survival were ETV6 RUNX1 fusion status, karyotype, minimal residual disease (MRD) at day 29, and DNA index, which were all integrated into the nomogram. The calibration curve for the probability of survival showed good agreement between the prediction by the nomogram and the actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram for predicting survival was 0.754 (95% CI, 0.715–0.793), and the AUCs for 3-, 5-, and 7-year survival were 0.775, 0.776, and 0.772, respectively.

Conclusion

We comprehensively evaluated the risk of clinical factors associated with prognosis and carried out risk stratification. The nomogram proposed in this study objectively and accurately predicted the prognosis of children with ALL.

One-year mortality of colorectal cancer patients: development and validation of a prediction model using linked national electronic data

Background

The existing literature does not provide a prediction model for mortality of all colorectal cancer patients using contemporary national hospital data. We developed and validated such a model to predict colorectal cancer death within 90, 180 and 365 days after diagnosis.

Methods

Cohort study using linked national cancer and death records. The development population included 27,480 patients diagnosed in England in 2015. The test populations were diagnosed in England in 2016 (n = 26,411) and Wales in 2015–2016 (n = 3814). Predictors were age, gender, socioeconomic status, referral source, performance status, tumour site, TNM stage and treatment intent. Cox regression models were assessed using Brier scores, c-indices and calibration plots.

Results

In the development population, 7.4, 11.7 and 17.9% of patients died from colorectal cancer within 90, 180 and 365 days after diagnosis. T4 versus T1 tumour stage had the largest adjusted association with the outcome (HR 4.67; 95% CI: 3.59–6.09). C-indices were 0.873–0.890 (England) and 0.856–0.873 (Wales) in the test populations, indicating excellent separation of predicted risks by outcome status. Models were generally well calibrated.

Conclusions

The model was valid for predicting short-term colorectal cancer mortality. It can provide personalised information to support clinical practice and research.

Sex and Adverse Events of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Colon Cancer: An Analysis of 34 640 Patients in the ACCENT Database

BACKGROUND

Adjuvant chemotherapy is a standard treatment option for patients with stage III and high-risk stage II colon cancer. Sex is one of several factors responsible for the wide inter-patient variability in drug responses. Amalgamated data on the effect of sex on the toxicity of current standard adjuvant treatment for colorectal cancer are missing.

METHODS

The objective of our study was to compare incidence and severity of major toxicities of fluoropyrimidine- (5FU or capecitabine) based adjuvant chemotherapy, with or without oxaliplatin, between male and female patients after curative surgery for colon cancer. Adult patients enrolled in 27 relevant randomized trials included in the ACCENT (Adjuvant Colon Cancer End Points) database, a large, multi-group, international data repository containing individual patient data, were included. Comparisons were conducted using logistic regression models (stratified by study and treatment arm) within each type of adjuvant chemotherapy (5FU, FOLFOX, capecitabine, CAPOX, and FOLFIRI). The following major toxicities were compared (grade III or IV and grade I-IV, according to National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria [NCI-CTC] criteria, regardless of attribution): nausea, vomiting, nausea or vomiting, stomatitis, diarrhea, leukopenia, neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, anemia, and neuropathy (in patients treated with oxaliplatin).

RESULTS

Data from 34 640 patients were analyzed. Statistically significant and clinically relevant differences in the occurrence of grade III or IV nonhematological {especially nausea (5FU: odds ratio [OR] = 2.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.90 to 2.87, P < .001; FOLFOX: OR = 2.34, 95% CI = 1.76 to 3.11, P < .001), vomiting (5FU: OR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.86 to 3.04, P < .001; FOLFOX: OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.50 to 2.66, P < .001; CAPOX: OR = 2.32, 95% CI = 1.55 to 3.46, P < .001), and diarrhea (5FU: OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.21 to 1.51, P < .001; FOLFOX: OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.35 to 1.90, P < .001; FOLFIRI: OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.25 to 1.97, P < .001)} as well as hematological toxicities (neutropenia [5FU: OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.37 to 1.76, P < .001; FOLFOX: OR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.71 to 2.25, P < .001; FOLFIRI: OR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.66 to 2.43, P < .001; capecitabine: OR = 4.07, 95% CI = 1.84 to 8.99, P < .001] and leukopenia [5FU: OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.40 to 2.17, P < .001; FOLFIRI: OR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.28 to 2.40, P < .001]) were observed, with women being consistently at increased risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis confirms that women with colon cancer receiving adjuvant fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy are at increased risk of toxicity. Given the known sex differences in fluoropyrimidine pharmacokinetics, sex-specific dosing of fluoropyrimidines warrants further investigation.

Systemic Therapy of Common Tumours in Older Patients: Challenges and Opportunities. A Young International Society of Geriatric Oncology Review Paper

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Decision-making for systemic treatments in older patients with cancer is difficult because of concerns for decreased organ function, risk of toxicity, limited life expectancy due to comorbidities and the lack of evidence available to guide its management in this population. Here, we review the data on the role of systemic agents for the treatment of common malignancies in this age group.

RECENT FINDINGS

Evidence on the use of systemic treatments for older patients with cancer is increasing, especially for newer options including immune checkpoint inhibitors and targeted agents that provide comparable benefit in older and younger patients. Nonetheless, the risks for short- and long-term toxicities need to be considered. More research is warranted and represents a unique opportunity to increase the knowledge on cancer treatment for older adults. Healthy, older individuals should be considered for standard systemic treatment options, whereas those at risk based on geriatric assessments require adjusted plans. Geriatric assessments are key for decision-making.

Accuracy of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Staging Rectal Cancer with Multidisciplinary Team: A Single-Center Experience

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in preoperative staging diagnosis for rectal cancer with multidisciplinary team (MDT) discussion. Methods: The retrospective study included 377 patients of rectal cancer with preoperative MRI staging from February 2015 to April 2018, in which 137 patients (36 received MDT discussion) received neoadjuvant therapy, 240 did not (97 received MDT discussion) and direct surgery was given. With postoperative pathological stage as the standard, the accuracy of MRI in preoperative staging for rectal cancer with MDT discussion was compared with non-MDT. Results: For direct surgery group, 21 out 97 (21.6%) patients changed their therapy strategy due to the change of the stage assessment after MDT. The accuracy of MRI for the diagnosis of preoperative N stage with MDT was significantly higher than those without MDT (56.2% vs. 42.1%, P=0.021). And for those without lymph node metastasis, the accuracy of MRI was higher after MDT (61.2% vs. 37.8%, P=0.009). For neoadjuvant therapy group, 7 out of 36 (19.4%) patients altered their therapy after MDT because of the changed stage. MDT improved the accuracy of restaging N stage with MRI (70.0% vs. 33.3%, P=0.003). The accuracy of MRI in staging T stage seemed not improved after MDT in both groups. Conclusions: In conclusion, MDT discussion increased the accuracy of MRI in preoperative staging diagnosis for rectal cancer. This mode could give a more accurate clinical stage of patients, which was in favor of choosing a preferable therapy strategy.

Personalizing the Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Prognosis by Incorporating Comorbidities and Functional Status into Prognostic Nomograms

Despite consistent evidence that comorbidities and functional status (FS) are strong prognostic factors for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, these important characteristics are not considered in prognostic nomograms. We assessed to what extent incorporating these characteristics into prognostic models enhances prediction of CRC prognosis. CRC patients diagnosed in 2003–2014 who were recruited into a population-based study in Germany and followed over a median time of 4.7 years were randomized into training (n = 1608) and validation sets (n = 1071). In the training set, Cox models with predefined variables (age, sex, stage, tumor location, comorbidity scores, and FS) were used to construct nomograms for relevant survival outcomes. The performance of the nomograms, compared to models without comorbidity and FS, was evaluated in the validation set using concordance index (C-index). The C-indexes of the nomograms for overall and disease-free survival in the validation set were 0.768 and 0.737, which were substantially higher than those of models including tumor stage only (0.707 and 0.701) or models including stage, age, sex, and tumor location (0.749 and 0.718). The nomograms enabled significant risk stratification within all stages including stage IV. Our study suggests that incorporating comorbidities and FS into prognostic nomograms could substantially enhance prediction of CRC prognosis.

Prognostic Significance of Tumor Deposits in Patients With Stage III Colon Cancer: A Nomogram Study

BACKGROUND

The clinical characteristics of stage III colon cancer and the prognostic significance of tumor deposits were investigated, to construct a prognostic nomogram.

METHODS

The data of patients were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Patients were randomized to a training or validation cohort. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze survival rates. In the training cohort, a prognostic nomogram was established via Cox regression and then tested in the validation cohort. The accuracy and discrimination of the nomogram were assessed using concordance indices (C-indices) and calibration curves.

RESULTS

Of the 9246 patients meeting the inclusion criteria, 1788 (19.3%) had tumor deposits. Patients with tumor deposits only showed similar survival rates to those with lymph node metastases only (P = 0.83). Compared with these, patients with both tumor deposits and lymph node metastases exhibited significantly worse survival (P < 0.01). In the multivariate Cox regression analyses, the following were identified as independent prognostic indicators and adopted to formulate the nomogram: tumor deposits, age, ethnicity, T stage, the number of positive regional lymph nodes, grade, and carcinoembryonic antigen. In the training cohort, the calibration curve showed good consistency, and the concordance index of the nomogram for predicting overall survival reaches 0.727 (95% CI: 0.71524-0.73876), superior to the concordance index of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system (0.594, 95% CI: 0.58224-0.60576). These results are supported in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor deposits may be an independent prognostic factor for patients with stage III colon cancer after colectomy. The nomogram constructed herein accurately predicted overall survival.

Clinical Predictors of Early Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Patients Undergoing Chemotherapy: Results From a Global Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Early mortality is a major problem in colorectal cancer (CRC). We have shown that Khorana Score is predictive of early mortality in other cancers. Here, we evaluated the value of this score and other prognostic variables in predicting early mortality in CRC.

Methods

CANTARISK was a prospective, noninterventional, global cohort study in patients with CRC initiating a new chemotherapy regimen. Data were collected at zero, two, four, and six months. Early mortality was defined as death within six months of enrollment. All data were compiled centrally and analyzed after the study closed. Statistically significant univariate associations were tested in multivariable models; adjusted odds ratios (ORs) are presented. Statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

From 2011 to 2012, 1789 CRC patients were enrolled. The median age was 62 years; 71% were Caucasian. One-third (35%) had a rectal primary, and 65% had metastatic disease. There were 184 (10.3%) patients who died during their first six months in the study. For low, intermediate, and high Khorana Score, there were 8.1%, 11.2% and 32.5% deaths, respectively. In multivariable analyses, Khorana Score was an independent predictor of early death (OR for high/intermediate vs low score = 1.70, P = .0027), in addition to age (OR for each incremental year = 1.03, P = .0014), presence of metastatic disease (OR = 3.28, P < .0001), and Easter Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status Score of 2 or higher (OR = 3.85, P < .0001).

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that Khorana Score is predictive of early mortality in CRC patients. Intermediate- or high-risk patients, as defined by this score, may benefit from additional interventions aimed at reducing early mortality.

Clinical Calculator for Early Mortality in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: An Analysis of Patients From 28 Clinical Trials in the Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive Database

Purpose Factors contributing to early mortality after initiation of treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer are poorly understood. Materials and Methods Data from 22,654 patients enrolled in 28 randomized phase III trials contained in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression models for 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality were constructed, including clinically and statistically significant patient and disease factors and interaction terms. A calculator (nomogram) for 90-day mortality was developed and validated internally using bootstrapping methods and externally using a 10% random holdout sample from each trial. The impact of early progression on the likelihood of survival to 90 days was examined with time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Results Mortality rates were 1.4% at 30 days, 3.4% at 60 days, and 5.5% at 90 days. Among baseline factors, advanced age, lower body mass index, poorer performance status, increased number of metastatic sites, BRAF mutant status, and several laboratory parameters were associated with increased likelihood of early mortality. A multivariable model for 90-day mortality showed strong internal discrimination (C-index, 0.77) and good calibration across risk groups as well as accurate predictions in the external validation set, both overall and within patient subgroups. Conclusion A validated clinical nomogram has been developed to quantify the risk of early death for individual patients during initial treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. This tool may be used for patient eligibility assessment or risk stratification in future clinical trials and to identify patients requiring more or less aggressive therapy and additional supportive measures during and after treatment.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Determining individual risk of short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is a difficult task. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic nomogram for ACHBLF patients.

METHODS

The nomogram was built to estimate the probability of 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 60-month survival based on an internal cohort of 246 patients with ACHBLF. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (tdROC), comparing with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and an external cohort of 138 patients. Furthermore, we plotted decision curves to evaluate the clinical usefulness of nomogram.

RESULTS

Independent factors derived from multivariable Cox analysis of training cohort to predict mortality were age, total bilirubin, serum sodium, and prothrombin activity, which were all assembled into nomogram. The calibration curves for probability of survival showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of nomogram was higher than that of MELD score for predicting survival (30-day, 0.809 vs 0.717, P < 0.001; 60-day, 0.792 vs 0.685, P < 0.001; 90-day, 0.779 vs 0.678, P < 0.001; 6-month, 0.781 vs 0.677, P < 0.001). Additionally, tdROC and decision curves also showed that nomogram was superior to MELD score. The results were confirmed in validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic nomogram provided an individualized risk estimate of short-term survival in patients with ACHBLF, offering to clinicians to improve their abilities to assess patient prognosis.

Decision-making in geriatric oncology: systemic treatment considerations for older adults with colon cancer

Colon cancer is common and can be considered a disease of older adults with more than half of cases diagnosed in patients aged over 70 years. Decision-making about treatment with chemotherapy for older adults may be complicated by age-related physiological changes, impaired functional status, limited social supports, concerns regarding the occurrence of and ability to tolerate treatment toxicity, and the presence of comorbidities. This is compounded by a lack of high quality evidence guiding cancer treatment decisions for older adults. Areas covered: This narrative review evaluates the evidence for adjuvant and palliative systemic therapy in older adults with colon cancer. The value of an adequate assessment prior to making a treatment decision is addressed, with emphasis on the geriatric assessment. Guidance in making a treatment decision is provided. Expert commentary: Treatment decisions should consider goals of care, a patient's treatment preferences, and weigh up relative benefits and harms.

Leveraging the power of pooled data for cancer outcomes research

Background

Clinical trials continue to be the gold standard for determining the efficacy of novel cancer treatments, but they may also expose participants to the potential risks of unpredictable or severe toxicities. The development of validated tools that better inform patients of the benefits and risks associated with clinical trial participation can facilitate the informed consent process. The design and validation of such instruments are strengthened when we leverage the power of pooled data analysis for cancer outcomes research.

Main body

In a recent study published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology entitled “Determinants of early mortality among 37,568 patients with colon cancer who participated in 25 clinical trials from the adjuvant colon cancer endpoints database,” using a large pooled analysis of over 30,000 study participants who were enrolled in clinical trials of adjuvant therapy for early-stage colon cancer, we developed and validated a nomogram depicting the predictors of early cancer mortality. This database of pooled individual-level data allowed for a comprehensive analysis of poor prognostic factors associated with early death; furthermore, it enabled the creation of a nomogram that was able to reliably capture and quantify the benefit-to-risk profile for patients who are considering clinical trial participation. This tool can facilitate treatment decision-making discussions.

Conclusion

As China and other Asian countries continue to conduct oncology clinical trials, efforts to collate patient-level information from these studies into a large data repository should be strongly considered since pooled data can increase future capacity for cancer outcomes research, which, in turn, can enhance patient-physician discussions and optimize clinical care.

Heterochromatin Protein 1 Binding Protein 3 Expression as a Candidate Marker of Intrinsic 5-Fluorouracil Resistance

BACKGROUND

Despite receiving post-operative 5-fluorouracil (5-FU)-based chemotherapy, approximately 50% of patients with stage IIIC colon cancer experience recurrence. Currently, no molecular signature can predict response to 5-FU.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Mouse models of colon cancer have been developed and characterized. Individual tumors in these mice can be longitudinally monitored and assessed to identify differences between those that are responsive and those that are resistant to therapy. Gene expression was analyzed in serial biopsies that were collected before and after treatment with 5-FU. Colon tumors had heterogeneous responses to treatment with 5-FU. Microarray analysis of pre-treatment biopsies revealed that Hp1bp3, a gene encoding heterochromatin protein 1 binding protein 3, was differentially expressed between sensitive and resistant tumors.

CONCLUSION

Using mouse models of human colorectal cancer, Hp1bp3 was identified as a candidate marker of intrinsic 5-FU resistance and may represent a potential biomarker for patient stratification or a target of clinical importance.