Number and tumor size are not sufficient criteria to select patients for liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Prognostic Factors of Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database Analysis

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to identify new, more accurate risk factors of liver transplantation for liver cancer through using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

Using the SEER database, we identified patients that had undergone surgical resection for non-metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and subsequent liver transplantation between 2010 and 2017. Overall survival (OS) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier plotter. Cox proportional hazards regression modelling was used to identify factors independently associated with recurrent disease [presented as adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% CIs].

RESULTS

Totally, 1530 eligible patients were included in the analysis. There were significant differences in ethnicity (P=0.04), cancer stage (P<0.001), vascular invasion (P<0.001) and gall bladder involvement (P<0.001) between the groups that survived, died due to cancer, or died due to other causes. In the Cox regression model, there were no significant differences in OS at 5 years with different operative strategies (autotransplantation versus allotransplantation), nor at survival at 1 year with neoadjuvant radiotherapy. However, neoadjuvant radiotherapy did appear to improve survival at both 3 years (HR: 0.540, 95% CI: 0.326-0.896, P=0.017) and 5 years (HR: 0.338, 95% CI: 0.153-0.747, P=0.007) from diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated differences in patient characteristics between prognostic groups after liver resection and transplantation for HCC. These criteria can be used to inform patient selection and consent in this setting. Preoperative radiotherapy may improve long-term survival post-transplantation.

Prediction of Microvascular Invasion in Hepatocellular Carcinoma via Deep Learning: A Multi-Center and Prospective Validation Study

Simple Summary

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is an independent risk factor for postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Preoperative knowledge of MVI would assist with tailored surgical strategy making to prolong patient survival. Previous radiological studies proved the role of noninvasive medical imaging in MVI prediction. However, hitherto, deep learning methods remained unexplored for this clinical task. As an end-to-end self-learning strategy, deep learning may not only achieve improved prediction accuracy, but may also visualize high-risk areas of invasion by generating attention maps. In this multicenter study, we developed deep learning models to perform MVI preoperative assessments using two imaging modalities—computed tomography (CT) and gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (EOB-MRI). A head-to-head prospective validation was conducted to verify the validity of deep learning models and achieve a comparison between CT and EOB-MRI for MVI assessment. The findings put forward a better understanding of MVI preoperative prediction in HCC management.

Abstract

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is a critical risk factor for postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Preknowledge of MVI would assist tailored surgery planning in HCC management. In this multicenter study, we aimed to explore the validity of deep learning (DL) in MVI prediction using two imaging modalities—contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) and gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (EOB-MRI). A total of 750 HCCs were enrolled from five Chinese tertiary hospitals. Retrospective CE-CT (n = 306, collected between March, 2013 and July, 2019) and EOB-MRI (n = 329, collected between March, 2012 and March, 2019) data were used to train two DL models, respectively. Prospective external validation (n = 115, collected between July, 2015 and February, 2018) was performed to assess the developed models. Furthermore, DL-based attention maps were utilized to visualize high-risk MVI regions. Our findings revealed that the EOB-MRI-based DL model achieved superior prediction outcome to the CE-CT-based DL model (area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC): 0.812 vs. 0.736, p = 0.038; sensitivity: 70.4% vs. 57.4%, p = 0.015; specificity: 80.3% vs. 86.9%, p = 0.052). DL attention maps could visualize peritumoral high-risk areas with genuine histopathologic confirmation. Both DL models could stratify high and low-risk groups regarding progression free survival and overall survival (p < 0.05). Thus, DL can be an efficient tool for MVI prediction, and EOB-MRI was proven to be the modality with advantage for MVI assessment than CE-CT.

Comparison between Milan and UCSF criteria for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Liver transplantation is the main treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, because of the limited supply of transplant organs, it is necessary to adopt a criterion that selects patients who will achieve adequate survival after transplantation. The aim of this review is to compare the two main staging criteria of HCC for the indication of liver transplantation (Milan and UCSF) and to analyze the post-transplantation survival rate at 1, 3 and 5 years.

Methods

This is a systematic review and meta-analysis in which scientific articles from 5 databases (PubMed, Lilacs, Embase, Central, and Cinahl) were analyzed. The studies included in the review consisted of liver transplantation in patients with HCC in different subgroups according to donor type (deceased × living), population (eastern × western) and tumor evaluation (radiological × pathological) and adopted the Milan or UCSF criteria for the indication of the procedure.

Results

There was no significant difference between the Milan and UCSF criteria in the overall survival rate at 1, 3 or 5 years, and the overall estimated value found was 1.03 [0.90, 1.17] at 1 year, 1.06 [0.96, 1.16] at 3 years and 1.04 [0.96, 1.12] at 5 years. Regarding the analysis of the subgroups, no significant difference was observed in any of the subgroups with a follow-up of 1, 3 or 5 years.

Conclusions

Both the Milan and UCSF criteria have equivalent survival rate. Thus, less restrictive method would not result in a great loss in the final overall survival rate and would benefit a greater number of patients.

Risk Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence and Survival after Liver Transplantation in Patients with HCV-Related Cirrhosis

Purpose

We aimed to identify prognostic factors for survival and recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) for patients with HCC and hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis (HCV-cirrhosis).

Methods

This retrospective cohort study followed all adult patients with HCV-cirrhosis who underwent LT because of HCC or had incidental HCC identified through pathologic examination of the explanted liver at a university hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, over 11 years (1998-2008). We used Cox regression models to assess the following risk factors regarding HCC recurrence or death after LT: age, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, Child-Pugh classification, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), whether patients had undergone locoregional treatment before transplantation, the number of packed red blood cell units (PRBCU) transfused during surgery, the number and size of HCC lesions in the explanted liver, and the presence of microvascular invasion and necrotic areas within HCC lesions.

Results

Seventy-six patients were followed up for a median (interquartile range (IQR)) of 4.4 (0.7-6.6) years. Thirteen (17%) patients had HCC recurrence during the follow-up period, and 26 (34%) died. The median survival time was 6.6 years (95% CI: 2.4-12.0), and the 5-year survival was 52.5% (95% CI: 42.3-65.0%). The final regression model for overall survival included four variables: age (hazard ratio (HR): 1.02, 95% CI: 0.96-1.08, P = 0.603), transplantation waiting time (HR: 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00-1.00, P = 0.190), preoperative AFP serum levels (HR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.02, P = 0.006), and whether >4 PRBCU were transfused during surgery (HR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.05-1.25, P = 0.001). The final cause-specific Cox regression model for HCC recurrence included only microvascular invasion (HR: 14.86, 95% CI: 4.47-49.39, P < 0.001).

Conclusion

In this study of LT for HCV-cirrhosis, preoperative AFP levels and the number of PRBCU transfused during surgery were associated with overall survival, whereas microvascular invasion with HCC recurrence.

Microvascular invasion and grading in hepatocellular carcinoma: correlation with major and ancillary features according to LIRADS

PURPOSE

To assess major and ancillary parameters that could be correlated with Microvascular Invasion (MIV) and with histologic grade of HCC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, we assessed 62 patients (14 women-48 men; mean age, 63 years; range 38-80 years) that underwent hepatic resection for HCC. All patients were subject to Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT); 40 to Magnetic Resonance (MR) study. The radiologist assessed major and ancillary features according to LIRADS (v. 2018) and reported any radiological accessory findings if detected.

RESULTS

No major feature showed statistically significant differences and correlation with grading. Mean ADC value was correlated with grading and with MIV status. No major feature was correlated to MIV; progressive contrast enhancement and satellite nodules showed statistically different percentages with respect to the presence of MIV, so as at the monovariate correlation analysis, satellite nodules were correlated with the presence of MIV. At multivariate regression analysis, no factor proved to be strong predictors of grading while progressive contrast enhancement and satellite nodules were significantly associated with the MIV.

CONCLUSION

Mean ADC value is correlated to HCC grading and MIV status. Progressive contrast enhancement and the presence of satellite nodules are correlated to MIV status.

Evolutionary Distance Predicts Recurrence After Liver Transplantation in Multifocal Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Liver transplantation (LTx) is a potentially curative treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhosis. However, patients, where HCC is already a systemic disease, LTx may be individually harmful and has a negative impact on donor organ usage. Thus, there is a need for improved selection criteria beyond nodule morphology to select patients with a favorable outcome for LTx in multifocal HCC. Evolutionary distance measured from genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism data between tumor nodules and the cirrhotic liver may be a prognostic marker of survival after LTx for multifocal HCC.

Methods

In a retrospective multicenter study, clinical data and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded specimens of the liver and 2 tumor nodules were obtained from explants of 30 patients in the discovery and 180 patients in the replication cohort. DNA was extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded specimens followed by genome wide single-nucleotide polymorphism genotyping.

Results

Genotype quality criteria allowed for analysis of 8 patients in the discovery and 17 patients in the replication set. DNA concentrations of a total of 25 patients fulfilled the quality criteria and were included in the analysis. Both, in the discovery (P = 0.04) and in the replication data sets (P = 0.01), evolutionary distance was associated with the risk of recurrence of HCC after transplantation (combined P = 0.0002). In a univariate analysis, evolutionary distance (P = 7.4 × 10⁻⁶) and microvascular invasion (P = 1.31 × 10⁻⁵) were significantly associated with survival in a Cox regression analysis.

Conclusions

Evolutionary distance allows for the determination of a high-risk group of recurrence if preoperative liver biopsy is considered.

The authors of this multicenter retrospective study assess whether the evolutionary distance measured from genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data between tumor nodules and the cirrhotic liver may be a prognostic marker of survival after liver transplantation for multifocal hepatocellular carcinoma. Supplemental digital content is available in the text.

Association of hepatitis status with surgical outcomes in patients with dual hepatitis B and C related hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

The conception that serological hepatitis markers determined surgical prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with hepatitis B (HBV) or hepatitis C (HCV) has been well defined. However, little is known about the relationship between surgical outcomes and serological hepatitis markers in patients with dual HBV and HCV related HCC.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of the clinical data of 39 HCC patients with HBV-HCV coinfection who underwent curative hepatectomy between 2001 and 2011 was performed. HBV DNA quantification, expression of HBV antigens, anti-HCV signal-to-cutoff ratio (S/CO) and some clinicopathological characteristics were investigated to show the potential relationship among them and the surgical prognosis.

Results

The Cox proportional hazards model identified that HBV DNA quantification of 1,000 IU/mL or higher, HBeAg seropositivity, tumor size of greater than 5 cm, multiple tumors, and vascular invasion were risk factors for HCC prognosis. Thus, HBV DNA quantification, HBsAg level, HBeAg status and HCV-Ab level which may reveal the hepatitis status were further analyzed. The overall survival time in the group with high (≥1,000 IU/mL) HBV DNA quantification was significantly lower than the group with low (<1,000 IU/mL) HBV DNA quantification. Similarly, the high HBsAg level (≥1,000 IU/mL) was associated with poor survival compared with the low HBsAg level. Moreover, HBeAg seropositivity determined a higher cumulative risk for death. However, no significant difference was observed in overall survival time between the groups with low (<10.9 S/CO) and high (≥10.9 S/CO) HCV-Ab level. Compared to HCV-Ab high-level group, the serological HBsAg level was observed significantly higher in HCV-Ab low-level group. Furthermore, the data we analyzed showed these 4 serological hepatitis markers were not correlated with cumulative recurrence rate. On multivariate analysis, none of serological hepatitis markers was an independent prognostic factor for HCC patients with dual hepatitis B and C.

Conclusion

Among HCC patients with HBV-HCV coinfection, those who with preoperatively high HBV DNA quantification or HBeAg seropositivity had a short survival time and served as poor survival indicators. Serological expression of HBV status rather than HCV status might potentially dominate the surgical outcomes of the Chinese HCC patients with HBV-HCV coinfection.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13027-017-0137-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Limitations of predicting microvascular invasion in patients with hepatocellular cancer prior to liver transplantation

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is well known to negatively influence outcomes following surgical treatment of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the rationale for prediction of MVI before liver transplantation (LT). Data of 200 HCC patients after LT were subject to retrospective analysis. MVI was present in 57 patients (28.5%). Tumor number (p = 0.001) and size (p = 0.009), and alpha-fetoprotein (p = 0.049) were independent predictors of MVI used to create a prediction model, defined as: 0.293x(tumor number) + 0.283x(tumor size in cm) + 0.164xlog_e(alpha-fetoprotein in ng/ml) (c statistic  =  0.743). The established cut-off (≥2.24) was associated with sensitivity and specificity of 72%. MVI was not an independent risk factor for recurrence (p = 0.307), in contrast to tumor number (p = 0.047) and size (p < 0.001), alpha-fetoprotein (p < 0.001) and poor differentiation (p = 0.039). Recurrence-free survival at 5 years for patients without MVI was 85.9% as compared to 83.3% (p = 0.546) and 55.3% (p = 0.001) for patients with false negative and true positive prediction of MVI, respectively. The use of both morphological and biological tumor features enables effective pre-transplant prediction of high-risk MVI. Provided that these parameters are combined in selection of HCC patients for LT, pre-transplant identification of all patients with MVI does not appear necessary.

The Warsaw Proposal for the Use of Extended Selection Criteria in Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Cancer

BACKGROUND

Combination of the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) and the up-to-7 criteria with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) cutoff of 100 ng/ml was proposed as the Warsaw expansion of the Milan criteria in selection of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) patients for liver transplantation. The purpose of this retrospective study was to validate this proposal.

METHODS

A total of 240 HCC patients after liver transplantation were included. Recurrence-free survival and overall survival at 5 years were set as the primary and secondary outcome measures, respectively.

RESULTS

The Warsaw expansion increased transplant eligibility rate by 20.3 %. AFP >100 ng/ml significantly increased the recurrence risk in patients within the Milan criteria (p = 0.025) and in those beyond, yet within either the UCSF or the up-to-7 criteria (p < 0.001). Recurrence-free survival at 5 years was 90.8 % for patients within the Milan criteria, 100.0 % in patients within the Warsaw expansion, 54.9 % in patients beyond the Warsaw expansion but within either the UCSF or the up-to-7 criteria, and 45.1 % in patients beyond both the UCSF and the up-to-7 criteria (p < 0.001). The corresponding overall survival rates were 71.6, 82.4, 64.3, and 55.3 %, respectively (p = 0.027).

CONCLUSIONS

The Warsaw expansion of the Milan criteria substantially increases the recipient pool without compromising outcomes.

Impact of non-oncological factors on tumor recurrence after liver transplantation in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary neoplasm of the liver and is one of the leading causes of cancer-related death worldwide. Liver transplantation (LT) has become one of the best curative therapeutic options for patients with HCC, although tumor recurrence after LT is a major and unaddressed cause of mortality. Furthermore, the factors that are associated with recurrence are not fully understood, and most previous studies have focused on the biological properties of HCC, such as the number and size of the HCC nodules, the degree of differentiation, the presence of hepatic vascular invasion, elevated serum levels of alpha-fetoprotein, and the tumor stage outside of the Milan criteria. Thus, little attention has been given to factors that are not directly related to HCC (i.e., “non-oncological factors”), which have emerged as predictors of tumor recurrence. This review was performed to assess the effects of non-oncological factors on tumor recurrence after LT. The identification of these factors may provide new research directions and clinical strategies for the prophylaxis and surveillance of tumor recurrence after LT, which can help reduce recurrence and improve patient survival.

A possible role of microRNAs as predictive markers for the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

With favourable 5-year survival rates up to 75%, liver transplantation (LT) is the treatment of choice for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nonetheless, tumour recurrence after LT remains a challenge. The aim of this retrospective study was to develop a predictive score for tumour recurrence after LT by combining clinical parameters with HCC biomarkers (microRNA). A microRNA (miRNA) microarray analysis was used to compare miRNA expression patterns in tissue samples of 40 patients with and without HCC recurrence after LT. In a screening cohort (n = 18), the miRNA analysis identified significant differences in the expression of 13 miRNAs in patients with tumour recurrence. Using the most significant miRNAs in this screening cohort, we could develop a predictive score, which combined the expression levels of miR-214, miR-3187 and the Milan criteria, and we could define low- and high-risk groups for tumour recurrence and death. The above score was evaluated in a second and independent cohort (n = 22). In contrast to the Milan criteria alone, this score was significantly associated with tumour recurrence. Our analysis indicated that the use of a specific miRNA expression pattern in combination with a limited tumour burden as defined by the Milan criteria may lead to a more accurate prediction of tumour recurrence.

The role of liver transplantation or resection for patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver resection (LR) and liver transplantation (LT) are curative treatments for early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), although their performance remains debated. We compared the survival of patients with HCC conforming to the Milan criteria (MC) after LT and LR and analyzed factors affecting clinical outcomes. Between January 2006 and January 2013, 65 and 184 patients received LT and LR for HCCs fulfilling the MC, respectively. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates were compared between the two groups. To investigate effects of liver function and living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) on survival, two subgroup analyses were performed and associations with OS and DFS were examined. We found that OS rates were higher after LT than after LR since 3 years postoperatively. DFS rates were significantly better after LT than after LR. Performance of LR, vascular invasion, and tumor multiplicity were associated with poor DFS, and factors affecting OS included the presence of vascular invasions, liver cirrhosis, and tumor multiplicity. In conclusion, despite of the effects of tumor characteristics on clinical outcomes, LT, including LDLT, should be considered the treatment of choice for patients with HCCs who met the MC. The role of LR is to identify poor prognostic factors through pathological examination.

Microvascular infiltration has limited clinical value for treatment and prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Microvascular infiltration (MVI) is considered a necessary step in the metastatic evolution of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its prognostic value after liver resection (LR) is uncertain. We studied the clinical value of MVI compared to the Milan criteria in a consecutive series of patients submitted to radical LR.

METHODS

A total of 441 patients were retrospectively evaluated. MVI and the Milan criteria were analyzed and compared as prognostic factors for overall and disease-free survival (DFS).

RESULTS

MVI was present in 189 patients (42.8 %). Grading, satellitosis, size of cancer, and alfa fetoprotein value were significantly related to MVI, which was present in 34.3 and 53.2 % of Milan+ and Milan- patients, respectively (p = 0.00001). Both MVI and the Milan criteria were associated with a lower overall and DFS, but only the Milan criteria were associated with the rate of early recurrence and the feasibility of a curative treatment of the recurrence. The application of MVI parameters to patients classified by the Milan criteria further selects the outcome in Milan+ patients (5-year survival rate of 54.1 and 67.9 %, respectively, in the presence or absence of MVI) but not in Milan- patients.

CONCLUSIONS

MVI is related to survival after LR for HCC, but the clinical value of this information is limited. In Milan+ patients, the absence of MVI selects the cases with better prognosis. In the presence of a liver recurrence, the Milan criteria related to the primary HCC show a better prognostic accuracy and have clinical relevance in the decision-making process.

Ischemia time impacts recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

Although experimental evidence has indicated that ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) injury of the liver stimulates growth of micrometastases and adhesion of tumor cells, the clinical impact of I/R injury on recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) has not been fully investigated. To study this issue, we conducted a retrospective review of the medical records of 391 patients from two transplant centers who underwent LT for HCC. Ischemia times along with other tumor/recipient variables were analyzed as risk factors for recurrence of HCC. Subgroup analysis focused on patients with HCC who had pathologically proven vascular invasion (VI) because of the associated increased risk of micrometastasis. Recurrence occurred in 60 patients (15.3%) with median time to recurrence of 0.9 years (range, 40 days-4.6 years). Cumulative recurrence curves according to cold ischemia time (CIT) at 2-hour intervals and warm ischemia time (WIT) at 10-minute intervals showed that CIT>10 hours and WIT>50 minutes were associated with significantly increased recurrence (P=0.015 and 0.036, respectively). Multivariate Cox's regression analysis identified prolonged cold (>10 hours; P=0.03; hazard ratio [HR]=1.9) and warm (>50 minutes; P=0.003; HR=2.84) ischemia times as independent risk factors for HCC recurrence, along with tumor factors, including poor differentiation, micro- and macrovacular invasion, exceeding Milan criteria, and alpha-fetoprotein>200 ng/mL. Prolonged CIT (P=0.04; HR=2.24) and WIT (P=0.001; HR=5.1) were also significantly associated with early (within 1 year) recurrence. In the subgroup analysis, prolonged CIT (P=0.01; HR=2.6) and WIT (P=0.01; HR=3.23) were independent risk factors for recurrence in patients with VI, whereas there was no association between ischemia times and HCC recurrence in patients with no VI.

CONCLUSION

Reducing ischemia time may be a useful strategy to decrease HCC recurrence after LT, especially in those with other risk factors.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Liver Cirrhosis: Surgical Resection versus Transarterial Chemoembolization-A Meta-Analysis

We compare the value of TACE to liver resection for patients with BCLC stage A and B HCC. For patients with HCC in cirrhosis LT is the treatment of choice. TACE represents the current standard for unresectable BCLC stage B patients not eligible for LT. Recently liver resection for HCC and significant cirrhosis has become increasingly popular. A systematic search of the literature and meta-analysis was conducted to identify studies, reporting short- and long-term results of hepatic resection versus TACE for HCC treatment. The data were analyzed regarding the odds for 30-day mortality and hazard ratio for overall-survival. 12 studies comparing short- and long-term outcome of HR versus TACE for HCC were identified. Peri-interventional mortality and overall survival were investigated. Peri-interventional mortality was higher for surgical resection (n.s.), and overall-survival was significantly better for surgically treated patients at one year (P = 0.002) and 3 years (P ≤ 0.00001). The hazard ratio of overall-survival for all twelve studies was 0.70 (P = 0.0001) and significantly in favor of surgical treatment. Although large RCTs are missing and the available data are limited and not homogeneous a reappraisal of the current treatment guidelines should be considered based on the superior long-term outcome for surgically treated patients.