Prognostic Effect of CEA Cut-Off in Patients with Resectable Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression

BACKGROUND

Although preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is a variable used in most prognostic scores assessing the outcome of patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) undergoing resection, it is unclear what the optimal cut-off is or in which patient subgroups CEA is most relevant. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the prognostic effect of CEA in resected CRLM patients and to explore in which subgroups CEA is most closely associated with overall survival (OS).

METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed, selecting studies that evaluated a relationship between preoperative CEA and OS in patients undergoing CRLM radical surgery. A meta-analysis assessed the overall effect size of the relationship on the selected study cohorts, based on CEA cut-off. An evaluation of 21 baseline variables was performed to explore their possible effect on the relationship between CEA and OS.

RESULTS

The study confirms a significant negative prognostic effect of increased CEA on OS (HR 1.46, CI 1.30-1.65), but heterogeneity among studies is significant. The effect is consistent for all CEA cut-offs, although the relationship tends to weaken in more recent studies for cut-offs < 10 ng/mL. Meta-regressions also suggest that the prognostic effect may be more pronounced in the elderly. In addition, the effect of CEA ≥ 20 ng/mL on OS appears significantly reduced in the subgroup with mutated RAS carcinoma.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with resectable CRLM, the CEA cut-off should be increased to 20 ng/mL, and evaluation in prospective studies of the more pronounced negative prognostic effect of preoperative CEA in the elderly and wild-type RAS CRLM patients is recommended.

Treatment outcomes and prognostic factors in patients with colorectal cancer and synchronous lung metastases in the conversion therapy era

PURPOSE

The Japanese Grade Classification based on the status of pulmonary and mesenteric nodal metastases and the presence of extrapulmonary metastases had a prognostic value in patients with colorectal lung metastases previously. Because the survival of such patients has improved in the era of conversion therapy, this classification needs to be reaudited.

METHODS

This study reviewed the treatment sequences of 126 colorectal cancer patients with synchronous lung metastases between 2010 and 2022 at our hospital. Patients were divided into Japanese Classification Grade A, B, and C. Prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) were analyzed.

RESULTS

Thirty patients were initially diagnosed with resectable disease. Among these, 6 (35%) of 17 patients who were scheduled to undergo upfront surgery developed unresectable disease. In contrast, 3 (23%) of 13 patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy could not undergo curative resection. Twelve (13%) of 96 patients with initially unresectable metastases underwent conversion to complete resection after systemic therapy. On multivariate analysis, curative resection and H3 (> 5 liver metastases and maximum diameter > 5 cm) at diagnosis were independent prognostic factors, whereas the Japanese Grade Classification was not associated with OS.

CONCLUSION

Instead of the Japanese classification, a new prognostic classification incorporating H3 should be established.

Preoperative and postoperative predictive models of early recurrence for colorectal liver metastases following chemotherapy and curative-intent one-stage hepatectomy

INTRODUCTION

Accurate prediction of patients at risk for early recurrence (ER) among patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) following preoperative chemotherapy and hepatectomy remains limited.

METHODS

Patients with CRLM who received chemotherapy prior to undergoing curative-intent resection between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to assess clinicopathological factors associated with ER, and an online calculator was developed and validated.

RESULTS

Among 768 patients undergoing preoperative chemotherapy and curative-intent resection, 128 (16.7 %) patients had ER. Multivariable Cox analysis demonstrated that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance status ≥1 (HR 2.09, 95%CI 1.46-2.98), rectal cancer (HR 1.95, 95%CI 1.35-2.83), lymph node metastases (HR 2.39, 95%CI 1.60-3.56), mutated Kirsten rat sarcoma oncogene status (HR 1.95, 95%CI 1.25-3.02), increase in tumor burden score during chemotherapy (HR 1.51, 95%CI 1.03-2.24), and bilateral metastases (HR 1.94, 95%CI 1.35-2.79) were independent predictors of ER in the preoperative setting. In the postoperative model, in addition to the aforementioned factors, tumor regression grade was associated with higher hazards of ER (HR 1.91, 95%CI 1.32-2.75), while receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with lower likelihood of ER (HR 0.44, 95%CI 0.30-0.63). The discriminative accuracy of the preoperative (training: c-index: 0.77, 95%CI 0.72-0.81; internal validation: c-index: 0.79, 95%CI 0.75-0.82) and postoperative (training: c-index: 0.79, 95%CI 0.75-0.83; internal validation: c-index: 0.81, 95%CI 0.77-0.84) models was favorable (https://junkawashima.shinyapps.io/CRLMfollwingchemotherapy/).

CONCLUSIONS

Patient-, tumor- and treatment-related characteristics in the preoperative and postoperative setting were utilized to develop an online, easy-to-use risk calculator for ER following resection of CRLM.

Neoadjuvant Statistical Algorithm to Predict Individual Risk of Relapse in Patients with Resected Liver Metastases from Colorectal Cancer

(1) Background: Liver metastases (LM) are the leading cause of death in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Despite advancements, relapse rates remain high and current prognostic nomograms lack accuracy. Our objective is to develop an interpretable neoadjuvant algorithm based on mathematical models to accurately predict individual risk, ensuring mathematical transparency and auditability. (2) Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 86 CRC patients with LM treated with neoadjuvant systemic therapy followed by complete surgical resection. A comprehensive analysis of 155 individual patient variables was performed. Logistic regression (LR) was utilized to develop the predictive model for relapse risk through significance testing and ANOVA analysis. Due to data limitations, gradient boosting machine (GBM) and synthetic data were also used. (3) Results: The model was based on data from 74 patients (12 were excluded). After a median follow-up of 58 months, 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS) rate was 33% and 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 60.7%. Fifteen key variables were used to train the GBM model, which showed promising accuracy (0.82), sensitivity (0.59), and specificity (0.96) in predicting relapse. Similar results were obtained when external validation was performed as well. (4) Conclusions: This model offers an alternative for predicting individual relapse risk, aiding in personalized adjuvant therapy and follow-up strategies.

Consideration of Metastasis-Directed Therapy for Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: Expert Survey and Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

A survey of medical oncologists (MOs), radiation oncologists (ROs), and surgical oncologists (SOs) who are experts in the management of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) was conducted to identify factors used to consider metastasis-directed therapy (MDT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An online survey to assess clinical factors when weighing MDT in patients with mCRC was developed based on systematic review of the literature and integrated with clinical vignettes. Supporting evidence from the systematic review was included to aid in answering questions.

RESULTS

Among 75 experts on mCRC invited, 47 (response rate 62.7%) chose to participate including 16 MOs, 16 ROs, and 15 SOs. Most experts would not consider MDT in patients with 3 lesions in both the liver and lung regardless of distribution or timing of metastatic disease diagnosis (6 vs. 36 months after definitive treatment). Similarly, for patients with retroperitoneal lymph node and lung and liver involvement, most experts would not offer MDT regardless of timing of metastatic disease diagnosis. In general, SOs were willing to consider MDT in patients with more advanced disease, ROs were more willing to offer treatment regardless of metastatic site location, and MOs were the least likely to consider MDT.

CONCLUSIONS

Among experts caring for patients with mCRC, significant variation was noted among MOs, ROs, and SOs in the distribution and volume of metastatic disease for which MDT would be considered. This variability highlights differing opinions on management of these patients and underscores the need for well-designed prospective randomized trials to characterize the risks and potential benefits of MDT.

Have we improved postoperative and long-term outcomes of liver surgery for colorectal cancer metastasis? Analysis of 1736 hepatectomies performed over 3 decades in a single center

INTRODUCTION

Surgery is the only potentially curative treatment for colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) and its indication and results have varied in the last 30 years.

METHODS

All patients operated on for CRLM in our centre from 1990 to 2021 were prospectively collected, establishing 3 subgroups based on the year of the first surgery: group A 1990-1999, group B 2000-2010, group C 2011-2021. Clinical characteristics and the results of survival, recurrence and prognostic factors were compared.

RESULTS

1736 hepatectomies were included (Group A n = 208; Group B n = 770; Group C n = 758). Patients in group C had better survival at 5 and 10 years (A 40.5%/28.2%; B 45.9%/32.2%; C 51.6%/33.1%, p = 0.013), although there were no differences between groups in overall recurrence at 5 and 10 years (A 73%/75.7%; B 67.6%/69.2%, and C 63.9%/66%, p = 0.524), nor in liver recurrence (A 46.4%/48.2%; B 45.8%/48.2%; and C 44.4%/48.4%, p = 0.899). An improvement was observed in median survival after recurrence, being 19 months, 23 months, and 31 months (groups A, B and C respectively). Prognostic factors of long-term survival changed over the 3 study periods. The only ones that remained relevant in the last decade were the presence of >4 liver metastasis, extrahepatic disease at the time of hepatectomy, and intraoperative blood transfusion.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival after surgery for CRLM has improved significantly, although this cannot be explained by a reduction in overall and hepatic recurrence, but rather by an improvement in post-recurrence survival. Involvement of the resection margin has lost prognostic value in the last decade.

Conditional Survival After Hepatectomy for Colorectal Liver Metastasis: Results from the Colorectal Liver Operative Metastasis International Collaborative (COLOMIC)

INTRODUCTION

Complete resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CLM) improves long-term survival in colorectal cancer. However, there is limited recent data on conditional survival (CS) as postoperative survival milestones are achieved post-hepatectomy.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on the penta-institutional Colorectal Liver Operative Metastasis International Collaborative (COLOMIC), with 906 consecutive CLM hepatectomy cases. CS was calculated using Bayes' theorem and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Additional CS analyses were performed on additional clinicopathologic risk factors, including colon cancer laterality, KRAS mutation status, and extrahepatic disease.

RESULTS

The 5-year CS was 40.6%, 45.3%, 52.8%, and 65.3% at 0, 1, 2, and 3 years postoperatively, with significant improvements each year (p < 0.005). CS was not significantly different between right-sided and left-sided colorectal cancers by 3 years postoperatively. Patients with KRAS mutations had worse CS at all timepoints (p < 0.001). Extrahepatic disease was a poor prognostic factor for OS and CS (p < 0.001). However, CS for patients with KRAS mutations or extrahepatic disease improved significantly as 2-year, postoperative survival was achieved (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Five-year CS after hepatectomy for CLM improved with each passing year of survival postoperatively. Although extrahepatic disease and KRAS mutations are poor prognostic factors for OS, these populations still had improved CS after 2 years postoperatively.

Real-World Outcomes of Oxaliplatin-Based Chemotherapy on R0 Resected Colonic Liver Metastasis

INTRODUCTION

In resected colonic liver metastasis (CLM), randomized studies of oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy have demonstrated improvements in disease-free survival (DFS), but not overall survival (OS). Additionally, oxaliplatin regimens have not been compared to non-oxaliplatin chemotherapy. Despite limited evidence, perioperative chemotherapy is often used in the management of CLM. The primary aim of this study was to assess the impact of oxaliplatin chemotherapy regimens on OS in patients who have undergone resection of CLM in a real-world setting.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent resection of CLM in the provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, Canada, were identified from 1996 to 2016. Perioperative (pre- and/or post-) systemic therapy was categorized as oxaliplatin or non-oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy or no chemotherapy. The primary and secondary outcomes were OS and DFS, respectively.

RESULTS

We identified 511 patients who underwent R0 resection of CLM. A significant difference in median OS was identified among the oxaliplatin, non-oxaliplatin, and no-chemotherapy groups of 100, 60, and 59 months, respectively (P = .009). In multivariate analysis, patients who received oxaliplatin regimens had a lower risk of death (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.92; P = .012), whereas the non-oxaliplatin chemotherapy group did not (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-1.20; P = .422) compared with no chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

In this multicenter, retrospective, population-based study, perioperative oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy was associated with improved OS in conjunction with R0 resection of CLM. Further studies should evaluate the optimal duration and sequencing of perioperative chemotherapy in relation to curative-intent surgical resection of CLM.