Optimal Strategies to Select Warfarin Dose for Thai Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

Background: Warfarin has been the mainstay treatment for the prevention of stroke and systemic thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The optimal starting dose of warfarin remains unclear. Objective: To investigate the most optimal dosing strategies for warfarin starting dose in Thai patients with AF. Material and Methods: We enrolled consecutive AF patients who were starting on warfarin and resulting in a stable INR of 2.0-3.0 at two consecutive time points. We measured the dose of warfarin at which INR achieved the target range. The optimal dosage was defined as the difference from the actual dose within 20%. We compared strategies of warfarin dosing, including warfarin dosing formula, 2.5 mg, 3 mg and 5 mg doses. The primary endpoints were the proportions of patients in optimal, underdosing, and overdosing categories. Results: Among 1207 patients visiting the Outpatient Clinic between October 2011 and September 2021, 531 patients were identified with AF and INR in the therapeutic range of 2.0-3.0 on at least two consecutive visits. The mean age of participants was 68 ± 11 years, and men accounted for 44.4% of the population. The warfarin dosing formula resulted in optimal dosing in 37% and overdosing in 24% of cases, whereas the 2.5 mg, 3 mg and 5 mg doses resulted in optimal dosing in 36%, 39%, and 11%, and overdosing in 33%, 44% and 88% of patients, respectively (p < 0.01). Conclusions: In Thai patients with AF, the optimal warfarin starting dose may be 2.5 mg, 3 mg or a simplified warfarin dosing formula, whereas the 5 mg dose should be avoided due to the high risk of overdosing.

Warfarin anticoagulation management during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of internet clinic and machine learning

Background: Patients who received warfarin require constant monitoring by hospital staff. However, social distancing and stay-at-home orders, which were universally adopted strategies to avoid the spread of COVID-19, led to unprecedented challenges. This study aimed to optimize warfarin treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic by determining the role of the Internet clinic and developing a machine learning (ML) model to predict anticoagulation quality.

Methods: This retrospective study enrolled patients who received warfarin treatment in the hospital anticoagulation clinic (HAC) and “Internet + Anticoagulation clinic” (IAC) of the Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital between January 2020 and September 2021. The primary outcome was the anticoagulation quality of patients, which was evaluated by both the time in therapeutic range (TTR) and international normalized ratio (INR) variability. Anticoagulation quality and incidence of adverse events were compared between HAC and IAC. Furthermore, five ML algorithms were used to develop the anticoagulation quality prediction model, and the SHAP method was introduced to rank the feature importance.

Results: Totally, 241 patients were included, comprising 145 patients in the HAC group and 96 patients in the IAC group. In the HAC group and IAC group, 73.1 and 69.8% (p = 0.576) of patients achieved good anticoagulation quality, with the average TTR being 79.9 ± 20.0% and 80.6 ± 21.1%, respectively. There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse events between the two groups. Evaluating the five ML models using the test set, the accuracy of the XGBoost model was 0.767, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.808, which showed the best performance. The results of the SHAP method revealed that age, education, hypertension, aspirin, and amiodarone were the top five important features associated with poor anticoagulation quality.

Conclusion: The IAC contributed to a novel management method for patients who received warfarin during the COVID-19 pandemic, as effective as HAC and with a low risk of virus transmission. The XGBoost model could accurately select patients at a high risk of poor anticoagulation quality, who could benefit from active intervention.

A new index to predict quality of anticoagulation control in patients on vitamin K antagonists: the DAFNE score

Aim: To derive a new clinical score to improve the prediction of those at risk of poor International Normalized Ratio control among patients with atrial fibrillation taking vitamin K antagonists. Materials & methods: The score was calculated using PAULA database and validated in the FANTASIIA population. Results: The DAFNE score (cardiovascular Disease, concomitant treatment with Amiodarone, Food/dietary transgression and taking ≥7 pills daily, fEemale sex) score was related to a higher probability of poor International Normalized Ratio control. C-indexes were 0.611 and 0.576 (De Long test, p = 0.007) for the DAFNE and SAMe-TT₂R₂ scores, respectively. Conclusion: The DAFNE score is a new clinical score which may potentially help determine those patients with atrial fibrillation who are at high risk of poor anticoagulation control with vitamin K antagonists.

Closure Device-Related Thrombosis After Anticoagulation With Dabigatran in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Left Atrial Appendage Closure: Case Reports and Literature Review

Percutaneous left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) is an effective and safe operation strategy for stroke prevention in patients who are diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF) but cannot tolerate long term anticoagulation medication. We presented four rare cases of thrombosis formation on the occluder device. After the LAAC operation was successfully performed on patients, they followed a course of anticoagulation with dabigatran (110 mg b.i.d.), and device-related thrombosis (DRT) occurred as indicated by a transesophageal echocardiogram (TEE) during the follow-up period. Regressions were achieved after replacing dabigatran with rivaroxaban or warfarin for more than 1 month. No thrombosis or bleeding-related complications occurred in subsequent follow-ups.

A Simple Formula for Predicting the Maintenance Dose of Warfarin with Reference to the Initial Response to Low Dosing at an Outpatient Clinic

Objective The pharmacodynamic effect of warfarin varies among individuals, and its maintenance dose is widely distributed. Although many formulae for predicting the maintenance dose of warfarin have been developed, most of them are complex and not in practical use. Methods and Materials Among 12,738 new patients visiting the Cardiovascular Institute between 2004 and 2009, we identified 127 patients (66.6±8.8 years, 89 men) with atrial fibrillation for whom warfarin was newly started with an initial dose of 2 mg/day and the international normalized ratio (INR) at 1 year after warfarin was started was within the therapeutic range. The prediction models for the maintenance dose were developed by an exponential equation and a first-order equation. Results The initial response of the INR to the dose of 2 mg/day (initial INR) ranged from 1.00-3.24 (mean 1.43), while the maintenance dose of warfarin ranged from 0.5-14 mg (mean 3.8 mg). The maintenance dose showed an exponential correlation to the initial INR: (predicted maintenance dose) =5.522× (initial INR) ^-1.556 (R²=0.795, p<0.001). Excluding the patients with a poor response to the initial dose (initial INR <1.1, n=32) permitted a simple correlation with a first-order approximation: (predicted maintenance dose) =-2.009× (initial INR) +6.172 (R²=0.706, p<0.001). Conclusion We developed a simple formula for predicting the maintenance dose of warfarin using the initial response of the INR to low-dose warfarin.

[The Nephrological Aspects of the Use of Rivaroxaban and Other Direct Peroral Anticoagulants in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation]

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a powerful cardiovascular risk factor, its presence is accompanied by an increased risk of hospitalization for exacerbation of chronic heart failure (CHF), adverse outcomes in myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular mortality. Among the adverse events, an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) should be noted. This article contains discussion of current approaches to the treatment of AF in patients with different stages of CKD, data on benefits of certain direct oral anticoagulants, as well as comparative characteristics of therapy with direct oral anticoagulants and warfarin. Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of direct oral anticoagulants, which determine the features of therapy in CKD, are also considered.

Warfarin in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation-Time for a change?

Warfarin is the most commonly prescribed anticoagulant in hemodialysis (HD) patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Recent trends show that Nephrologists are increasingly prescribing novel oral anticoagulants, despite the fact that no randomized clinical trials have been conducted in dialysis patients. Difficulties maintaining international normalized ratio in the therapeutic range, increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage and concerns regarding warfarin-induced vascular calcification and calciphylaxis may be responsible. Anticoagulation quality is poor in HD patients. A variety of factors contribute to this: increased antibiotic exposure; comorbid illness; decreased adherence and vitamin K deficiency. Attempts to address this with standardized protocols have been uniformly unsuccessful. In nonadherent patients, thrice weekly observed therapy improved quality. Low-dose vitamin K supplementation improves time in the therapeutic range (TTR) in those with normal kidney function and should be studied in HD patients given their high frequency of vitamin K deficiency. Vascular and valvular calcification associated with warfarin could result from reduced carboxylation of matrix Gla protein (MGP), a well-known inhibitor of vascular calcification. Multiple observational studies also link calciphylaxis to warfarin; warfarin-induced hypercoagulability and decreased carboxylation of MGP could explain this. A large observational study, two meta-analyses, and a systematic review in HD patients with NVAF showed reduced bleeding with apixaban compared to warfarin with similar efficacy in reducing stroke and systemic embolism. Given these results, apixaban is a reasonable alternative to warfarin for anticoagulation of HD patients with NVAF, especially in those with low TTR, until data from randomized clinical trials become available.