Prognostic stratification and nomogram for survival prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with radiotherapy for lymph node metastasis

Efficacy of radiotherapy combined with targeted therapy and immunotherapy for lymph node metastasis of liver cancer

PURPOSE

To investigate the efficacy and safety of radiotherapy combined with targeted therapy and immunotherapy for liver cancer with lymph node metastasis (LNM).

METHODS

We analysed patients who received radiotherapy for liver cancer with LNM in our hospital from June 2020 to June 2023. 62 patients were enrolled in this study, who received radiotherapy with a median radiation dose of 60.0 Gy, combined with targeted therapy and/or immunotherapy. The objective response rate (ORR), overall survival (OS), progression free survival (PFS), and adverse events were observed to evaluate treatment efficacy and safety.

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 18.5 months, the best ORR was 90.3%. The median OS was 26.0 months. The 1-year and 2-year OS rates were 78.93% and 57.37%, respectively. The median PFS was 17.0 months, and the 1-year and 2-year PFS rates were 59.06% and 49.22%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that alanine aminotransferase (HR = 2.34, 95% CI 1.07-5.11, P = 0.033), prothrombin time (HR = 4.51, 95% CI 1.76-11.57, P = 0.002), alpha fetal protein (HR = 2.94, 95% CI 1.34-6.45, P = 0.007), and the volume of LNM (HR = 3.05, 95% CI 1.25-7.46, P = 0.014) were independent predictors for OS, while non-regional LNM (HR = 3.19, 95% CI 1.24-8.16, P = 0.016) was an independent predictor for PFS. Toxicity was generally mild and moderate.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiotherapy combined with targeted therapy and immunotherapy is an effective treatment option, and expected to become new treatment strategy for liver cancer with LNM.

Prognostic Index for Liver Radiation (PILiR)

A Prognostic Index for Liver Radiation (PILiR) for improved patient selection for stereotactic liver-directed radiotherapy (SBRT) was developed. Using a large single-center database, 195 patients treated with SBRT for local control, including 66 with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 129 with metastatic liver disease, were analyzed. Only patients ineligible for alternative treatments were included. Overall survival was 11.9 months and 9.4 months in the HCC group and metastatic groups, respectively. In the combined dataset, Child-Pugh Score (CPS) (p = 0.002), serum albumin (p = 0.039), and presence of extrahepatic disease (p = 0.012) were significant predictors of early death on multivariable analysis and were included in the PILiR (total score 0 to 5). Median survival was 23.8, 9.1, 4.5, and 2.6 months for patients with 0, 1-2, 3, and 4-5 points, respectively. In the HCC dataset, CPS (p < 0.001) and gross tumor volume (p = 0.013) were predictive of early death. In the metastatic dataset, serum albumin (p < 0.001) and primary disease site (p = 0.003) were predictive of early death. The AUC for the combined, HCC, and metastatic datasets are 0.78, 0.84, and 0.80, respectively. Poor liver function (defined by CPS and serum albumin) and extrahepatic disease were most predictive of early death, providing clinically important expected survival information for patients and caregivers.

Short-term prognosis for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with lung metastasis: A retrospective cohort study based on the SEER database

Our study aimed to develop a prediction model to predict the short-term mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with lung metastasis. The retrospective data of HCC patients with lung metastasis was from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registration database between 2010 and 2015. 1905 patients were randomly divided into training set (n = 1333) and validation set (n = 572). There were 1092 patients extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database 2015 to 2019 as the validation set. The variable importance was calculated to screen predictors. The constructed prediction models of logistic regression, random forest, broad learning system, deep neural network, support vector machine, and naïve Bayes were compared through the predictive performance. The mortality of HCC patients with lung metastasis was 51.65% within 1 month. The screened prognostic factors (age, N stage, T stage, tumor size, surgery, grade, radiation, and chemotherapy) and gender were used to construct prediction models. The area under curve (0.853 vs. 0.771) of random forest model was more optimized than that of logistic regression model in the training set. But, there were no significant differences in testing and validation sets between random forest and logistic regression models. The value of area under curve in the logistic regression model was significantly higher than that of the broad learning system model (0.763 vs. 0.745), support vector machine model (0.763 vs. 0.689) in the validation set, and higher than that of the naïve Bayes model (0.775 vs. 0.744) in the testing model. We further chose the logistic regression prediction model and built the prognostic nomogram. We have developed a prediction model for predicting short-term mortality with 9 easily acquired predictors of HCC patients with lung metastasis, which performed well in the internal and external validation. It could assist clinicians to adjust treatment strategies in time to improve the prognosis.

Stereotactic body radiotherapy delivered with IMRT for oligometastatic regional lymph node metastases in hepatocellular carcinoma: a single-institutional study

The optimal treatment to lymph node metastases in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been established, yet. Our aim was to evaluate the local control, the survival benefit and the toxicity of stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) delivered with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) to oligometastatic regional lymph node in HCC patients. We retrospectively analyzed 15 patients with HCC treated with SBRT delivered using IMRT to 24 regional lymph node metastases. Dose prescriptions were set to 45 Gy in 6 fractions of 7.5 Gy for solitary lesions and 49.5 Gy in 9 fractions of 5.5 Gy for multiple lesions. For the planning target volume, the plan was optimized aiming for a V95% > 90%. The study endpoints were freedom from local progression (FFLP), progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) and toxicity. The median follow-up was 18.1 months. The 1-year and 2-year FFLP rates were 100 and 90 ± 9.5%, respectively. The 1-year PFS rate was 46.7 ± 12.9%, and the 1-year and 2-year OS rates were 73.3 ± 11.4 and 28.6 ± 12.7%, respectively. Only one patient had a duodenal ulcer and three patients had liver enzyme elevation in sub-acute toxicity, however there was no grade ≥ 3 toxicity. In conclusion, SBRT delivered with IMRT to lymph node metastases can offer excellent local control with minimal toxicity, and SBRT may improve HCC patients' survival more than conventional radiotherapy.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Patients with Nonmetastatic BCLC Stage C Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy

BACKGROUND

Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) is an emerging treatment modality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with promising outcome. However, appropriate survival prediction models are scarce. This study aimed to develop a simple and clinically useful prognostic nomogram for patients with nondistant metastatic Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage C HCC undergoing SBRT.

METHODS

The data were based on a prospective multi-institutional registry enrolling 246 patients with nondistant metastatic BCLC stage C HCC treated with SBRT between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2016. They were randomly divided into two subsets: 164 into the development cohort and 82 into the validation cohort. We identified and included prognostic factors for survival to derive a nomogram in the development cohort. The predictability of the nomogram was evaluated in the validation cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the calibration plot were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram.

RESULTS

The median survival was 13.5 months, with 1- and 2-year overall survival (OS) rates of 55.0 and 32.9%, respectively. Number of tumors, largest tumor size, macrovascular invasion, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class, and biologically effective dose were significantly associated with OS (p < 0.05). These predictors were included to develop a nomogram with an AUROC of 0.77 (0.73-0.87). The prediction model was well calibrated in the validation cohort. The OS for patients who were divided by their risk scores differed significantly (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram we generated had discriminatory and satisfactory predictability for OS among nonmetastatic BCLC stage C HCC patients treated with SBRT. It demands further validations with cross-country data to confirm its worldwide usefulness.

A nomogram to predict prognosis of patients with unresected hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiotherapy: a population-based study

Background: Radiotherapy is a primary treatment strategy for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, the prognostic factors among HCC patients who have received radiotherapy but not undergone surgery have not been systematically studied. Thus, the prognostic factors were investigated in this study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Medicare database.

Methods: A screening process was used for select cases from the SEER database. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test, the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and a competing risk model. A nomogram was established for predicting 1- and 3-year overall survival (OS) of patients.

Results: A total of 1305 HCC patients who received radiotherapy but had not undergone surgery were included in this study and divided into training (n = 1175) and validation cohorts (n = 130). Patients in the training cohort had a 1-year OS rate of 30.9±1.3%, a 3-year OS rate of 10.0±1.0%, and a median survival rate of 6.0 months (range, 5.4-6.6 months). Race (p = 0.025), T stage (p < 0.001), N stage (p < 0.001), M stage (p < 0.001), and chemotherapy (p < 0.001) were identified as independent risk factors by multivariate analyses in the training cohort, while sex, age, grade, marital status, and insurance status were not independent factors. Survival in patients who received radiotherapy was worse with respect to the following characteristics: black race; higher T, N, or M stage; and no chemotherapy. A nomogram was established based on the results of the multivariate analysis, which was internally validated by a concordance index (C-index) of 0.731±0.016 and a group of calibration plots. External validation was carried out and the C-index was 0.738±0.049, which demonstrated the effectiveness of the nomogram we constructed.

Conclusions: Race, T stage, N stage, M stage, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for survival of HCC patients who received radiotherapy but had not undergone surgery. A validated nomogram was formulated to predict 1- and 3-year OS in these patients based on individual clinical characteristics.

Role of local treatment including radiotherapy in Barcelona Clinic of Liver Cancer stage C patients: a nationwide cohort analysis in South Korea

Purpose

Sorafenib is recommended as the standard treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of Barcelona Clinic of Liver Cancer stage C (BCLC C). However, local treatment including radiation therapy (LRT) is also widely administered in practice. The aim of our study was to define the role of LRT among BCLC C patients.

Patients and methods

Of the patients with HCC enrolled the Korean Central Cancer Registry from 2008 to 2014, the Korean Liver Cancer Study Group randomly extracted 10,580 patient data from ~50 hospitals nationwide. Among them, 3,401 patients were categorized to have BCLC C HCC. Among them, patients with information on initial treatments, defined as the first and secondary treatment within 60 days after the first treatment, were selected and classified into three initial treatment groups: LRT, sorafenib, and no treatment.

Results

Among 3,401 BCLC C HCC patients, 1,486 were included in the study and the remaining patients were excluded as they did not meet the criteria (eg, underwent local treatments without radiotherapy [RT] or received chemotherapy other than sorafenib). Of these, 266 were assigned to LRT (17.9%), 316 to sorafenib (21.3%), and 904 to no treatment group (60.8%). Median survival time of the sorafenib group was shorter than that of the LRT group (3.8 vs 7.6 months, P<0.001). In multivariable analysis, sorafenib group showed significantly higher risk related to mortality compared to LRT group, not only among all patients (HR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.23-1.84) but also between subgroup cohorts with portal invasions (1.55, 1.23-1.84), with lymph node metastases (2.42, 1.53-3.83), without distant metastases (1.43, 1.10-1.87), and with distant metastases (1.57, 1.13-2.19). Additionally, no treatment group showed the worst survival among the three treatment groups not only in all patients, but also in all subgroups of patients (P<0.001 in all).

Conclusion

LRT as an initial treatment showed survival benefit as compared to sorafenib in HCC patients of BCLC C.

The role of external beam radiotherapy for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with lymph node metastasis: a meta-analysis of observational studies

Purpose

Lymph node metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma is categorized as advanced in Barcelona Clinic of Liver Cancer staging, and sorafenib is a sole treatment recommended. However, appliance of local treatment including external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) has not been uncommon. We performed a meta-analysis and systemically reviewed current literature to evaluate the efficacy and safety of EBRT.

Methods

PubMed, Medline, Cochrane library, and Embase were systemically searched until December 17, 2017. The primary endpoint of analyses was response rate (RR), and 1-year overall survival and complication rates of grade ≥3 were secondary endpoints. Complications were primarily assessed descriptively.

Results

A total of 8 studies comprising 521 patients were included. The pooled RR was 73.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 63.6–80.9), and high-dose EBRT groups had better RR than the low-dose group (82.2% [95% CI: 74.4–88.1] vs 51.1% [95% CI: 40.3–61.7]; P=0.001]. The pooled 1-year overall survival rate was 41.0% (95% CI: 32.9–49.6). Six studies assessed the survival benefit according to RR, and 5 (83.3%) of these 6 studies reported statistically significant survival benefit. The most common grade ≥3 toxicities were thrombocytopenia and gastrointestinal complication, with pooled rates of 3.4% (95% CI: 1.2–9.5) and 3.5% (95% CI:1.7–7.2), respectively.

Conclusion

EBRT showed a pooled RR of 73.1% and was safely performed. EBRT might palliate symptoms through tumor reductions and improve survival. Use of sorafenib combined or sequentially with EBRT can be recommended rather than monotherapy.

Prognostic group stratification and nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients who received radiotherapy for abdominal lymph node metastasis from hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-institutional retrospective study (KROG 15-02)

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prognostic model for overall survival (OS) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving radiotherapy (RT) to metastatic abdominal lymph nodes (LNs).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Two hundred twenty-eight patients treated with RT to metastatic abdominal LNs were retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

Median OS in all patients was 11.1 months. LN responders had significantly higher median OS than non-responders (14.2 months vs. 7.5 months, p<0.05). On multivariate analysis, Child-Pugh classification, status of intrahepatic tumor, presence of distant metastasis, number and location of metastatic LNs, serum level of alpha fetoprotein (AFP), and the LN response to RT were significant prognostic factors for OS (p < 0.05 each). Based on the results of multivariate analysis, prognostic group stratification according to the number of pre-treatment risk factors was a significant predictor of OS, and median OS in patients with ≥ 4, 3, 2, 1, and 0 risk factors were 2.9, 5.5, 10.3, 13.6, and 27.8 months, respectively (p<0.05). A nomogram was formulated by integrating the different prognostic contribution of each factor, and it showed good accuracy for predicting 2-year OS with a concordance index of 0.72.

CONCLUSION

Prognostic group stratification and nomogram could be useful prognostic and therapeutic indicators in selecting treatment strategies.