A model incorporating histopathology and preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma without microvascular invasion after curative hepatectomy

Diagnostic model using LI-RADS v2018 for predicting early recurrence of microvascular invasion-negative solitary hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

To develop a diagnostic model for predicting the early recurrence of microvascular invasion (MVI)-negative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after surgical resection, using the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) version 2018.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 73 patients with MVI-negative HCC who underwent Gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI (EOB-MRI) scanning before surgical resection. The clinical factors and LI-RADS v2018 MRI features associated with early recurrence were determined using univariable and multivariable analyses. A diagnostic model predicting early recurrence after surgical resection was developed, and its predictive ability was evaluated via a receiver operating characteristic curve. Then, the recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

In total, 26 (35.6%) patients were diagnosed with early recurrence according to the follow-up results. Infiltrative appearance and targetoid hepatobiliary phase (HBP) appearance were independent predictors associated with early recurrence (p < 0.05). For the established diagnostic model that incorporated these two significant predictors, the AUC value was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64-0.85) for predicting early recurrence after resection, which was higher than the infiltrative appearance (AUC: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.55-0.78, p = 0.019) and targetoid HBP appearance (AUC: 0.68, 95% CI:0.57-0.79, p = 0.028). In the RFS analysis, patients with infiltrative appearance and targetoid HBP appearance showed significantly lower RFS rates than those without infiltrative appearance (2-year RFS rate, 48.0% vs. 72.0%; p = 0.009) and targetoid HBP appearance (2-year RFS rate, 60.0% vs. 35.0%; p = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

An EOB-MRI model based on infiltrative appearance and targetoid HBP appearance showed good performance in predicting early recurrence of HCC after surgery, which may provide personalized guidance for clinical treatment decisions in patients with MVI-negative HCC.

MRI Features and Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR)-Based Nomogram to Predict Prognosis of Microvascular Invasion-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

This study aimed to develop a novel nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) for microvascular invasion (MVI)-negative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after curative resection.

Patients and Methods

A total of 143 pathologically confirmed MVI-negative HCC patients were analyzed retrospectively. Baseline MRI features and inflammatory markers were collected. We used univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis to identify the independent risk factors for RFS. And we established a nomogram based on significant MRI features and inflammatory marker. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to validate the clinical utility of the nomogram.

Results

In multivariate Cox regression analysis, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (P = 0.018), tumor size (P = 0.002), and tumor capsule (P = 0.000) were independent significant variables associated with RFS. Nomogram with independent factors was developed and achieved a good C-index of 0.730 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.656-0.804) for predicting RFS. In ROC analysis, the areas under curve of the nomogram for 1-, 3- and 5-year RFS prediction were 0.725, 0.784 and 0.798, respectively. The risk score calculated by nomogram could divide MVI-negative HCC patients into high-risk group or low-risk group (P < 0.0001). DCA analysis revealed that the nomogram could increase net benefit and exhibited a wider range of threshold probabilities by the risk stratification than the independent risk factors in the prediction of MVI-negative HCC recurrence.

Conclusion

The nomogram prognostic model based on MRI features and NLR for predicting RFS showed high accuracy in MVI-negative HCC patients after curative resection. It can help clinicians make treatment decisions for MVI-negative HCC patients and identify high-risk patients for timely intervention.

P53 status combined with MRI findings for prognosis prediction of single hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECT

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting recurrence in individuals suffering single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative hepatectomy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 189 patients with single HCC undergoing curative resection in our center were randomized into training and validation cohorts. P53 status was determined using immunohistochemistry. Clinical data, such as age, and gender were collected. MRI findings, such as tumor size, intratumoral arteries, the presence of peritumoral enhancement and intratumoral necrosis were also recorded. Nomograms were established based on the predictors selected in the training cohort, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to compare the predictive ability among single predictors and nomogram model. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess the impact of each predictor and nomogram model on HCC recurrence. The results were validated in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that P53 (P < 0.001), tumor size (P = 0.009), and intratumoral artery (P = 0.026) were the independent risk factors for HCC recurrence. The nomogram model demonstrated favorable C-index of 0.740 (95 %CI:0.653-0.826) and 0.767 (95 %CI: 0.633-0.900) in the training and validation cohorts, and the areas under the curve was 0.740 and 0.752, which was better than the performance of P53 and MR factors alone. Calibration curves indicated a good agreement between observed actual outcomes and predicted values. Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that nomogram model was powerful in discrimination and clinical usefulness.

CONCLUSIONS

The integrated nomogram combining P53 status and MRI findings can be a valuable prognostic tool for predicting postoperative recurrence of single HCC.

Deep learning radiomics based on contrast enhanced MRI for preoperatively predicting early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

Purpose

To explore the role of deep learning (DL) and radiomics-based integrated approach based on contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CEMRI) for predicting early recurrence (ER) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after curative resection.

Methods

Total 165 HCC patients (ER, n = 96 vs. non-early recurrence (NER), n = 69) were retrospectively collected and divided into a training cohort (n = 132) and a validation cohort (n = 33). From pretreatment CEMR images, a total of 3111 radiomics features were extracted, and radiomics models were constructed using five machine learning classifiers (logistic regression, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbor, extreme gradient Boosting, and multilayer perceptron). DL models were established via three variations of ResNet architecture. The clinical-radiological (CR), radiomics combined with clinical-radiological (RCR), and deep learning combined with RCR (DLRCR) models were constructed. Model discrimination, calibration, and clinical utilities were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis, respectively. The best-performing model was compared with the widely used staging systems and preoperative prognostic indexes.

Results

The RCR model (area under the curve (AUC): 0.841 and 0.811) and the optimal radiomics model (AUC: 0.839 and 0.804) achieved better performance than the CR model (AUC: 0.662 and 0.752) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The optimal DL model (AUC: 0.870 and 0.826) outperformed the radiomics model in the both cohorts. The DL, radiomics, and CR predictors (aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and tumor diameter) were combined to construct the DLRCR model. The DLRCR model presented the best performance over any model, yielding an AUC, an accuracy, a sensitivity, a specificity of 0.917, 0.886, 0.889, and 0.882 in the training cohort and of 0.844, 0.818, 0.800, and 0.846 in the validation cohort, respectively. The DLRCR model achieved better clinical utility compared to the clinical staging systems and prognostic indexes.

Conclusion

Both radiomics and DL models derived from CEMRI can predict HCC recurrence, and DL and radiomics-based integrated approach can provide a more effective tool for the precise prediction of ER for HCC patients undergoing resection.

Preoperative prediction power of radiomics and non-radiomics methods based on MRI for early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma: a systemic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare radiomics and non-radiomics in predicting early recurrence (ER) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative surgery.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed and Embase databases. Studies with clear reference criteria were selected. Data were extracted and assessed for quality using the quality in prognosis studies tool (QUIPS) by two independent authors. All included radiomics studies underwent radiomics quality score (RQS) assessment. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) using random or fixed models with a 95%CI. Forest maps visualized the data, and summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curves with the area under the curve (AUC) were generated. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses explored sources of heterogeneity. We compared sensitivity, specificity, PLR, and NLR using the z-test and compared AUC values using the Delong test.

RESULTS

Our meta-analysis included 10 studies comprising 1857 patients. For radiomics, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC of sROC, PLR and NLR were 0.84(95%CI: 0.78-0.89), 0.80(95%CI: 0.75-0.85), 0.89(95%CI: 0.86-0.91), 4.28(95%CI: 3.48-5.27) and 0.20(95%CI: 0.14-0.27), respectively, but with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 60.78% for sensitivity, I2 = 55.79% for specificity) and potential publication bias (P = 0.04). The pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC of sROC, PLR, NLR for non-radiomics were 0.75(95%CI:0.68-0.81), 0.78(95%CI:0.72-0.83), 0.83(95%CI: 0.80-0.86), 3.45(95%CI: 2.68-4.44) and 0.32(95%CI: 0.24-0.41), respectively. There was no significant heterogeneity in this group (I2 = 0% for sensitivity, I2 = 17.27% for specificity). Radiomics showed higher diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.89 vs. 0.83, P = 0.0456), higher sensitivity (0.84 vs. 0.75, P = 0.0385) and lower NLR (0.20 vs. 0.32, P = 0.0287).

CONCLUSION

The radiomics from preoperative MRI effectively predicts ER of HCC and has higher diagnostic accuracy than non-radiomics. Due to potential publication bias and suboptimal RQS scores in radiomics, these results should be interpreted cautiously.

Preoperative and postoperative MRI-based models versus clinical staging systems for predicting early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

To predict the early recurrence of HCC patients who received radical resection using preoperative variables based on Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI, followed by the comparison with the postoperative model and clinical staging systems.

METHODS

One hundred and twenty-nine HCC patients who received radical resection were categorized into the early recurrence group (n = 48) and the early recurrence-free group (n = 81). Through COX regression analysis, statistically significant variables of laboratory, pathologic, and Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI results were identified. The preoperative and postoperative models were established to predict early recurrence, and the prognostic performances and differences were compared between the two models and clinical staging systems.

RESULTS

Six variables were incorporated into the preoperative model, including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (APRI), rim arterial phase hyperenhancement (rim APHE), peritumoral hypointensity on hepatobiliary phase (HBP), CERHBP (tumor-to-liver SI ratio on hepatobiliary phase imaging), and ADC value. Moreover, the postoperative model was developed by adding microvascular invasion (MVI) and histological grade. The C-index of the preoperative model and postoperative model were 0.889 and 0.901 (p = 0.211) respectively. Using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA), it was determined that the innovative models we developed had superior predictive capabilities for early recurrence in comparison to current clinical staging systems. HCC patients who received radical resection were stratified into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups on the basis of the preoperative and postoperative models.

CONCLUSION

The preoperative and postoperative MRI-based models built in this study were more competent compared with clinical staging systems to predict the early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Preoperative Gadoxetic Acid-Enhanced MRI Features for Evaluation of Vessels Encapsulating Tumor Clusters and Microvascular Invasion in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Creating Nomograms for Risk Assessment

BACKGROUND

Vessels encapsulating tumor cluster (VETC) and microvascular invasion (MVI) have a synergistic effect on prognosis assessment and treatment selection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Preoperative noninvasive evaluation of VETC and MVI is important.

PURPOSE

To explore the diagnosis value of preoperative gadoxetic acid (GA)-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features for MVI, VETC, and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in HCC.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

POPULATION

240 post-surgery patients with 274 pathologically confirmed HCC (allocated to training and validation cohorts with a 7:3 ratio) and available tumor marker data from August 2014 to December 2021.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

3-T, T1-, T2-, diffusion-weighted imaging, in/out-phase imaging, and dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging.

ASSESSMENT

Three radiologists subjectively reviewed preoperative MRI, evaluated clinical and conventional imaging features associated with MVI+, VETC+, and MVI+/VETC+ HCC. Regression-based nomograms were developed for HCC in the training cohort. Based on the nomograms, the RFS prognostic stratification system was further. Follow-up occurred every 3-6 months.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Chi-squared test or Fisher's exact test, Mann-Whitney U-test or t-test, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-penalized, multivariable logistic regression analyses, receiver operating characteristic analysis, Harrell's concordance index (C-index), Kaplan-Meier plots. Significance level: P < 0.05.

RESULTS

In the training group, 44 patients with MVI+ and 74 patients with VETC+ were histologically confirmed. Three nomograms showed good performance in the training (C-indices: MVI+ vs. VETC+ vs. MVI+/VETC+, 0.892 vs. 0.848 vs. 0.910) and validation (C-indices: MVI+ vs. VETC+ vs. MVI+/VETC+, 0.839 vs. 0.810 vs. 0.855) cohorts. The median follow-up duration for the training cohort was 43.6 (95% CI, 35.0-52.2) months and 25.8 (95% CI, 16.1-35.6) months for the validation cohort. Patients with either pathologically confirmed or nomogram-estimated MVI, VETC, and MVI+/VETC+ suffered higher risk of recurrence.

DATA CONCLUSION

GA-enhanced MRI and clinical variables might assist in preoperative estimation of MVI, VETC, and MVI+/VETC+ in HCC.

EVIDENCE LEVEL

4 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.