A Nomogram for Individual Prediction of Poor Prognosis After Radical Surgery in Patients with Primary Pancreatic Duct Adenocarcinoma

Robotic pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: Analysis of surgical outcomes and long-term prognosis in a high-volume center

BACKGROUND

Robotic pancreaticoduodenectomy (RPD) has been reported to be safe and feasible for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) of the pancreatic head. This study aimed to analyze the surgical outcomes and risk factors for poor long-term prognosis of these patients.

METHODS

Data from patients who underwent RPD for PDAC of pancreatic head were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to seek the independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), and an online nomogram calculator was developed based on the independent prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Of the 273 patients who met the inclusion criteria, the median operative time was 280.0 minutes, the estimated blood loss was 100.0 mL, the median OS was 23.6 months, and the median recurrence-free survival (RFS) was 14.4 months. Multivariate analysis showed that preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.607, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.560-4.354, P < 0.001], lymph node metastasis (HR = 1.429, 95% CI: 1.005-2.034, P = 0.047), tumor moderately (HR = 3.190, 95% CI: 1.813-5.614, P < 0.001) or poorly differentiated (HR = 5.114, 95% CI: 2.839-9.212, P < 0.001), and Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ III (HR = 1.657, 95% CI: 1.079-2.546, P = 0.021) were independent prognostic factors for OS. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram constructed based on the above four independent prognostic factors was 0.685 (95% CI: 0.640-0.729), which was significantly higher than that of the AJCC staging (8th edition): 0.541 (95% CI: 0.493-0.589) (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This large-scale study indicated that RPD was feasible for PDAC of pancreatic head. Preoperative CA19-9, lymph node metastasis, tumor poorly differentiated, and Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ III were independent prognostic factors for OS. The online nomogram calculator could predict the OS of these patients in a simple and convenient manner.

Development and Validation of a Novel Model for Predicting the 5-Year Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Patients with Hypertension: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Hypertension is now common in China. Patients with hypertension and type 2 diabetes are prone to severe cardiovascular complications and poor prognosis. Therefore, this study is aimed at establishing an effective risk prediction model to provide early prediction of the risk of new-onset diabetes for patients with a history of hypertension.

Methods

A LASSO regression model was used to select potentially relevant features. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to determine independent predictors. Based on the results of multivariate analysis, a nomogram of the 5-year incidence of T2D in patients with hypertension in mainland China was established. The discriminative capacity was assessed by Harrell's C-index, AUC value, calibration plot, and clinical utility.

Results

After random sampling, 1273 and 415 patients with hypertension were included in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The prediction model included age, body mass index, FPG, and TC as predictors. In the derivation cohort, the AUC value and C-index of the prediction model are 0.878 (95% CI, 0.861-0.895) and 0.862 (95% CI, 0.830-0.894), respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUC value and C-index of the prediction model were 0.855 (95% CI, 0.836-0.874) and 0.841 (95% CI, 0.817-0.865), respectively. The calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between the estimated probability and the actual observation. Decision curve analysis shows that nomograms are clinically useful.

Conclusion

Our nomogram can be used as a simple, affordable, reasonable, and widely implemented tool to predict the 5-year T2D risk of hypertension patients in mainland China. This application helps timely intervention to reduce the incidence of T2D in patients with hypertension in mainland China.