Feeling the future: A meta-analysis of 90 experiments on the anomalous anticipation of random future events

Follow-up on the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA) remote viewing experiments☆

OBJECTIVES

Since 1972, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) commissioned several research programs on remote viewing (RV) that were progressively declassified from 1995 to 2003. The main objectives of this research were to statistically replicate the original findings and address the question: What are the underlying cognitive mechanisms involved in RV? The research focused on emotional intelligence (EI) theory and intuitive information processing as possible hypothetical mechanisms.

METHODS

We used a quasi-experimental design with new statistical control techniques based on structural equation modeling, analysis of invariance, and forced-choice experiments to accurately objectify results. We measured emotional intelligence with the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test. A total of 347 participants who were nonbelievers in psychic experiences completed an RV experiment using targets based on location coordinates. A total of 287 participants reported beliefs in psychic experiences and completed another RV experiment using targets based on images of places. Moreover, we divided the total sample into further subsamples for the purpose of replicating the findings and also used different thresholds on standard deviations to test for variation in effect sizes. The hit rates on the psi-RV task were contrasted with the estimated chance.

RESULTS

The results of our first group analysis were nonsignificant, but the analysis applied to the second group produced significant RV-related effects corresponding to the positive influence of EI (i.e., hits in the RV experiments were 19.5% predicted from EI) with small to moderate effect sizes (between 0. 457 and 0.853).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings have profound implications for a new hypothesis of anomalous cognitions relative to RV protocols. Emotions perceived during RV sessions may play an important role in the production of anomalous cognitions. We propose the Production-Identification-Comprehension (PIC) emotional model as a function of behavior that could enhance VR test success.

Raising the value of research studies in psychological science by increasing the credibility of research reports: the transparent Psi project

The low reproducibility rate in social sciences has produced hesitation among researchers in accepting published findings at their face value. Despite the advent of initiatives to increase transparency in research reporting, the field is still lacking tools to verify the credibility of research reports. In the present paper, we describe methodologies that let researchers craft highly credible research and allow their peers to verify this credibility. We demonstrate the application of these methods in a multi-laboratory replication of Bem's Experiment 1 (Bem 2011 J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 100, 407-425. (doi:10.1037/a0021524)) on extrasensory perception (ESP), which was co-designed by a consensus panel including both proponents and opponents of Bem's original hypothesis. In the study we applied direct data deposition in combination with born-open data and real-time research reports to extend transparency to protocol delivery and data collection. We also used piloting, checklists, laboratory logs and video-documented trial sessions to ascertain as-intended protocol delivery, and external research auditors to monitor research integrity. We found 49.89% successful guesses, while Bem reported 53.07% success rate, with the chance level being 50%. Thus, Bem's findings were not replicated in our study. In the paper, we discuss the implementation, feasibility and perceived usefulness of the credibility-enhancing methodologies used throughout the project.

'Feeling' or 'sensing' the future? Testing for anomalous cognitions in clinical versus healthy populations

In the study and treatment of psychosis, emotional intelligence (EI) and thinking styles are important patient characteristics for successful outcomes in clinical intervention. Anticipation of unpredictable stimuli (AUS) may be understood as an anomalous perception and anomalous cognition in which an individual supposedly senses and recognizes future stimuli in an unexpected way, also referred to as “hunches or premonitions.” This examined the roles of EI and thinking styles in AUSs in convenience samples of healthy participants (n = 237) versus patients diagnosed with psychosis (n = 118). We adjusted several quadratic and exponential regression models according to the obtained functions. Group means were also compared to examine differences in EI scores for participants with psychosis compared to healthy participants. In the healthy group, EI predicted AUSs with a weight between 42% and 58%. Thinking styles were not correlated with AUSs. However, EI was not correlated with AUSs in the clinical group. Patients with psychosis tended to score higher on AUSs and lower on EI and thinking styles compared to participants in the healthy group. We discuss EI as a variable that can contextualize some anomalous perceptions which are otherwise difficult to classify or measure within the classic psychosis continuum model.

What if consciousness is not an emergent property of the brain? Observational and empirical challenges to materialistic models

The nature of consciousness is considered one of science's most perplexing and persistent mysteries. We all know the subjective experience of consciousness, but where does it arise? What is its purpose? What are its full capacities? The assumption within today's neuroscience is that all aspects of consciousness arise solely from interactions among neurons in the brain. However, the origin and mechanisms of qualia (i.e., subjective or phenomenological experience) are not understood. David Chalmers coined the term "the hard problem" to describe the difficulties in elucidating the origins of subjectivity from the point of view of reductive materialism. We propose that the hard problem arises because one or more assumptions within a materialistic worldview are either wrong or incomplete. If consciousness entails more than the activity of neurons, then we can contemplate new ways of thinking about the hard problem. This review examines phenomena that apparently contradict the notion that consciousness is exclusively dependent on brain activity, including phenomena where consciousness appears to extend beyond the physical brain and body in both space and time. The mechanisms underlying these "non-local" properties are vaguely suggestive of quantum entanglement in physics, but how such effects might manifest remains highly speculative. The existence of these non-local effects appears to support the proposal that post-materialistic models of consciousness may be required to break the conceptual impasse presented by the hard problem of consciousness.

Qualitative analysis of first-person accounts of noetic experiences

The term “noetic” comes from the Greek word noēsis/noētikos that means inner wisdom, direct knowing, intuition, or implicit understanding. Strong cultural taboos exist about sharing these experiences. Thus, many may not feel comfortable transparently discussing or researching these topics, despite growing evidence that these experiences may be real. The study’s objective was to qualitatively evaluate first-hand accounts of noetic experiences. 521 English-speaking adults from around the world completed an online survey that collected demographic data and four open-ended questions about noetic experiences. Thematic analysis was used to characterize the data. The ten most used codes were expressing to or sharing with others, impacting decision-making, intuition/”just knowing,” meditation/hypnosis, inner visions, setting intentions/getting into the “state,” healing others, writing for self, and inner voice. There were five main themes identified: 1. Ways of Engagement; 2. Ways of Knowing; 3. Types of Information; 4. Ways of Affecting; and 5. Ways of Expressing. Subthemes. Future research will include investigating the nuances of these themes and also establishing standardized methods for evaluating them. This would also then inform curricula and therapies to support people in these experiences.

Top-down resolution of visual ambiguity - knowledge from the future or footprints from the past?

Current theories about visual perception assume that our perceptual system weights the a priori incomplete, noisy and ambiguous sensory information with previous, memorized perceptual experiences in order to construct stable and reliable percepts. These theories are supported by numerous experimental findings. Theories about precognition have an opposite point of view. They assume that information from the future can have influence on perception, thoughts, and behavior. Several experimental studies provide evidence for precognition effects, other studies found no such effects. One problem may be that the vast majority of precognition paradigms did not systematically control for potential effects from the perceptual history. In the present study, we presented ambiguous Necker cube stimuli and disambiguated cube variants and systematically tested in two separate experiments whether perception of a currently observed ambiguous Necker cube stimulus can be influenced by a disambiguated cube variant, presented in the immediate perceptual past (perceptual history effects) and/or in the immediate perceptual future (precognition effects). We found perceptual history effects, which partly depended on the length of the perceptual history trace but were independent of the perceptual future. Results from some individual participants suggest on the first glance a precognition pattern, but results from our second experiment make a perceptual history explanation more probable. On the group level, no precognition effects were statistically indicated. The perceptual history effects found in the present study are in confirmation with related studies from the literature. The precognition analysis revealed some interesting individual patterns, which however did not allow for general conclusions. Overall, the present study demonstrates that any future experiment about sensory or extrasensory perception urgently needs to control for potential perceptual history effects and that temporal aspects of stimulus presentation are of high relevance.

Retrospective median power, false positive meta-analysis and large-scale replication

Recent, high-profile, large-scale, preregistered failures to replicate uncover that many highly-regarded experiments are "false positives"; that is, statistically significant results of underlying null effects. Large surveys of research reveal that statistical power is often low and inadequate. When the research record includes selective reporting, publication bias and/or questionable research practices, conventional meta-analyses are also likely to be falsely positive. At the core of research credibility lies the relation of statistical power to the rate of false positives. This study finds that high (>50%-60%) median retrospective power (MRP) is associated with credible meta-analysis and large-scale, preregistered, multi-lab "successful" replications; that is, with replications that corroborate the effect in question. When median retrospective power is low (<50%), positive meta-analysis findings should be interpreted with great caution or discounted altogether.

The Multivariable Multiaxial Suggestibility Inventory-2 (MMSI-2): A Psychometric Alternative to Measure and Explain Supernatural Experiences

This paper presents the English adaptation of the Multivariable Multiaxial Suggestibility Inventory-2 (MMSI-2), a questionnaire developed specifically for psychological assessment and prediction of anomalous phenomena. The sample consisted of 613 respondents from England (47.6% were women and 52.4% men). All of them were of legal age (mean = 34.5; standard deviation = 8.15). An exploratory factor analysis was applied, and three confirmatory factor models were adjusted. Omega coefficients and test-retest designs were used for reliability analysis. The MMSI-2 has a valid internal structure consisting of five macrofactors: Clinical Personality Tendencies (CPT), Anomalous Perceived Phenomena (APP), Incoherent Manipulations (IMA), Altered States of Consciousness (ASC), and Openness (OP). Omega coefficients for CPT and OP factors were low but acceptable. Furthermore, test-retest trials were excellent for all scales and factors. The psychological factors CPT, IMA, and ASC predicted 18.3% of the variance of anomalous experiences (APP). The authors concluded the English MMSI-2 was a valid and reliable test for the evaluation of anomalous phenomena but recommend that subsequent research reviews the predictive quality of the underlying model.

Detecting publication selection bias through excess statistical significance

We introduce and evaluate three tests for publication selection bias based on excess statistical significance (ESS). The proposed tests incorporate heterogeneity explicitly in the formulas for expected and ESS. We calculate the expected proportion of statistically significant findings in the absence of selective reporting or publication bias based on each study's SE and meta-analysis estimates of the mean and variance of the true-effect distribution. A simple proportion of statistical significance test (PSST) compares the expected to the observed proportion of statistically significant findings. Alternatively, we propose a direct test of excess statistical significance (TESS). We also combine these two tests of excess statistical significance (TESSPSST). Simulations show that these ESS tests often outperform the conventional Egger test for publication selection bias and the three-parameter selection model (3PSM).

Examining implicit beliefs in a replication attempt of a time-reversed priming task

Background: Psi research is a controversial area of science that examines telepathy, clairvoyance, precognition, and psychokinesis (mind over matter). Central to the debate over the existence of psi is of whether independent investigators can replicate reportedly successful psi experiments. One important variable involves the beliefs of experimenters and participants. A preregistered experiment is presented that sought to replicate and extend previously published parapsychology experiments suggestive of precognition by examining implicit beliefs. Methods: On each trial of the standard (non-psi) priming task, a pleasant or unpleasant word (the "prime") is briefly shown on computer screen, followed immediately by a pleasant or unpleasant picture. Trials on which the image and the priming word have different valences are termed "Incongruent"; trials on which the picture and the priming word share a common valence are termed "Congruent". Participants in such experiments typically respond more slowly on Incongruent trials than on Congruent trials. In this "time-reversed" psi version of the experiment, the presumed cause-effect sequence is reversed so that the prime is not flashed until after the participant has already recorded his or her judgment. The experimental hypothesis remains the same: response times will be longer on trials with Incongruent prime/picture pairs than on trials with Congruent prime/picture pairs. Additionally, the study assesses expectations of success on the psi task of 32 experimenters-each testing 12 participants-using self-report questionnaires and the Implicit Association Task (IAT). Results: A significant correlation was found between the Implicit Association Test (IAT) effect and the participants' reported beliefs in psi, with the effect in the direction opposite to the hypothesized correlation. Conclusions: This study offers an innovative approach to the role of beliefs in psi in a precognition study and speaks to the challenges of replication in controversial science.

Forced-choice experiment on Anomalous Information Reception and correlations with states of consciousness using the Multivariable Multiaxial Suggestibility Inventory-2 (MMSI-2)

CONTEXT

An Anomalous Information Reception (AIR) experiment was developed.

OBJECTIVE

To statistically examine the occurrence of AIR in multiple experimental tests and explore their predictive psychological mechanisms.

DESIGN

First, we investigated whether human beings could guess the positive or negative content from 30 randomly selected images that would be presented on a computer screen, one at a time. Ninety participants reported being mediums and another 90 claimed to be nonbelievers in the paranormal. The participants were randomly assigned to three experimental conditions: (1) positive-relaxing environments, (2) neutral environments, and (3) negative-stimulating environments. Second, the prediction of successes recorded in the AIR experiment was tested using five Multivariable Multiaxial Suggestibility Inventory-2 (MMSI-2) scales that measured the altered state of consciousness (ASC) and suggestibility.

RESULTS

The successes did not exceed the estimated chance. The only significant results revealed that mediums obtained a greater number of correct answers than the non-believing participants. Bayesian estimation also confirmed these results. In the same way, the altered states of consciousness and suggestibility negatively predicted 25.8% of successes in the AIR experiment.

CONCLUSIONS

Insufficient statistical evidence was obtained for AIR. The results raise doubts about previous theories on AIR. Further research is required. Nevertheless, mediums obtained more success answers than nonbelievers did. This means that the anomalous sheep-goat effect is also present in mediums and supports results obtained in previous studies.

Why Most Research Findings About Psi Are False: The Replicability Crisis, the Psi Paradox and the Myth of Sisyphus

The replicability crisis in psychology has been influenced by the results of nine experiments conducted by Bem (2011) and presented as supporting the existence of precognition. In this paper, we hope to show how the debate concerning these experiments could be an opportunity to develop original thinking about psychology and replicability. After a few preliminary remarks about psi and scientific epistemology, we examine how psi results lead to a paradox which questions how appropriate the scientific method is to psi research. This paradox highlights a problem in the way experiments are conducted in psi research and its potential consequence on mainstream research in psychology. Two classical experiments - the Ganzfeld protocol and the Bem studies - are then analyzed in order to illustrate this paradox and its consequences. Mainstream research is also addressed in the broader context of the replication crisis, decline effect and questionable research practices. Several perspectives for future research are proposed in conclusion and underline the heuristic value of psi studies for psychology.

A preregistered multi-lab replication of Maier et al. (2014, Exp. 4) testing retroactive avoidance

The term “retroactive avoidance” refers to a special class of effects of future stimulus presentations on past behavioral responses. Specifically, it refers to the anticipatory avoidance of aversive stimuli that were unpredictable through random selection after the response. This phenomenon is supposed to challenge the common view of the arrow of time and the direction of causality. Preliminary evidence of “retroactive avoidance” has been published in mainstream psychological journals and started a heated debate about the robustness and the true existence of this effect. A series of seven experiments published in 2014 in the Journal of Consciousness Studies (Maier et al., 2014) tested the influence of randomly drawn future negative picture presentations on avoidance responses based on key presses preceding them. The final study in that series used a sophisticated quantum-based random stimulus selection procedure and implemented the most severe test of retroactive avoidance within this series. Evidence for the effect, though significant, was meager and anecdotal, Bayes factor (BF₁₀) = 2. The research presented here represents an attempt to exactly replicate the original effect with a high-power (N = 2004) preregistered multi-lab study. The results indicate that the data favored the null effect (i.e., absence of retroactive avoidance) with a BF₀₁ = 4.38. Given the empirical strengths of the study, namely its preregistration, multi-lab approach, high power, and Bayesian analysis used, this failed replication questions the validity and robustness of the original findings. Not reaching a decisive level of Bayesian evidence and not including skeptical researchers may be considered limitations of this study. Exploratory analyses of the change in evidence for the effect across time, performed on a post-hoc basis, revealed several potentially interesting anomalies in the data that might guide future research in this area.

Researching unexplained phenomena: empirical-statistical validity and reliability of the Multivariable Multiaxial Suggestibility Inventory-2 (MMSI-2)

Anomalous phenomena are unexplained occurrences, such as paranormal experiences, that challenge the ontological bases of current scientific knowledge and are considered scientifically impossible. Problematically, some scientific research yields significant statistical results in favor of the existence of telepathy, precognition, mind-matter interaction, and mediumship. The current study presents and statistically justifies the Multivariable Multiaxial Suggestibility Inventory-2 (MMSI-2), a new psychological instrument to measure and detect the main psychological explanations for anomalous experiences. A nonprobabilistic sample of 3,224 subjects without a psychiatric history were recruited from the general population of Spain. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to examine the internal structure of the MMSI-2's 174 items. Direct oblimin and promax oblique rotations were applied as criteria for axis rotation. Cronbach's alpha coefficients and their ordinal transformation were also calculated, and gender-differentiated scales for the raw MMSI-2 scale scores were developed. The first-order factorial solution yielded a total of 16 factors that explained 92.84% of the variance. Of these, 10 corresponded to the psychological variables cited in the background literature, four classified the anomalous phenomena according to their sensory mode, and two represented prototype control scales for this class of psychometric inventory. The higher-order EFA grouped the MMSI-2 scales into four macrofactors that together explained 97.737% of the variance. Satisfactory reliability rates were obtained (alphas>0.8). The full version of the MMSI-2 with 174 items is a valid and reliable psychometric instrument for evaluating anomalous phenomena and the theoretically concomitant psychological variables. Similarly, the scaling of scores can be used in psychological assessment as a screening tool to identify clinically suspected psychological variables.

Inner Experience - Direct Access to Reality: A Complementarist Ontology and Dual Aspect Monism Support a Broader Epistemology

Ontology, the ideas we have about the nature of reality, and epistemology, our concepts about how to gain knowledge about the world, are interdependent. Currently, the dominant ontology in science is a materialist model, and associated with it an empiricist epistemology. Historically speaking, there was a more comprehensive notion at the cradle of modern science in the middle ages. Then “experience” meant both inner, or first person, and outer, or third person, experience. With the historical development, experience has come to mean only sense experience of outer reality. This has become associated with the ontology that matter is the most important substance in the universe, everything else—consciousness, mind, values, etc., —being derived thereof or reducible to it. This ontology is insufficient to explain the phenomena we are living with—consciousness, as a precondition of this idea, or anomalous cognitions. These have a robust empirical grounding, although we do not understand them sufficiently. The phenomenology, though, demands some sort of non-local model of the world and one in which consciousness is not derivative of, but coprimary with matter. I propose such a complementarist dual aspect model of consciousness and brain, or mind and matter. This then also entails a different epistemology. For if consciousness is coprimary with matter, then we can also use a deeper exploration of consciousness as happens in contemplative practice to reach an understanding of the deep structure of the world, for instance in mathematical or theoretical intuition, and perhaps also in other areas such as in ethics. This would entail a kind of contemplative science that would also complement our current experiential mode that is exclusively directed to the outside aspect of our world. Such an epistemology might help us with various issues, such as good theoretical and other intuitions.

From Discovery to Justification: Outline of an Ideal Research Program in Empirical Psychology

The gold standard for an empirical science is the replicability of its research results. But the estimated average replicability rate of key-effects that top-tier psychology journals report falls between 36 and 39% (objective vs. subjective rate; Open Science Collaboration, 2015). So the standard mode of applying null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST) fails to adequately separate stable from random effects. Therefore, NHST does not fully convince as a statistical inference strategy. We argue that the replicability crisis is "home-made" because more sophisticated strategies can deliver results the successful replication of which is sufficiently probable. Thus, we can overcome the replicability crisis by integrating empirical results into genuine research programs. Instead of continuing to narrowly evaluate only the stability of data against random fluctuations (discovery context), such programs evaluate rival hypotheses against stable data (justification context).

Searching for Global Consciousness: A 17-Year Exploration

The Global Consciousness Project (GCP) maintains a long-term experiment that investigates the possibility of a subtle connection between the collective mental activity of humans and the physical behavior of systems in the surrounding environment. The Project formulates this proposition as a broad hypothesis that relates the output of true random number generators (RNGs) to times of intense, collective mental attention during major world events. Over 17 years, the hypothesis has been tested on nearly 500 events, yielding a cumulative result that rejects the null hypothesis by seven standard deviations, apparently lending strong support to the proposal of global consciousness. However, an alternate interpretation is that the result is due to an anomalous effect associated with persons directly engaged with the experiment. This article examines these interpretations and finds that the data do not support the global consciousness proposal. Rather, analyses indicate that the GCP result is due to a goal-oriented effect associated with individuals, similar to effects reported in prior research that studies subject engagement with RNG outputs. An operational definition of goal-oriented effects is presented, which allows for explicit tests of the data. All of the tests favor the interpretation of a goal-oriented effect.

Psychology, replication & beyond

Modern psychology is apparently in crisis and the prevailing view is that this partly reflects an inability to replicate past findings. If a crisis does exists, then it is some kind of ‘chronic’ crisis, as psychologists have been censuring themselves over replicability for decades. While the debate in psychology is not new, the lack of progress across the decades is disappointing. Recently though, we have seen a veritable surfeit of debate alongside multiple orchestrated and well-publicised replication initiatives. The spotlight is being shone on certain areas and although not everyone agrees on how we should interpret the outcomes, the debate is happening and impassioned. The issue of reproducibility occupies a central place in our whig history of psychology.

On the reproducibility of meta-analyses: six practical recommendations

Background

Meta-analyses play an important role in cumulative science by combining information across multiple studies and attempting to provide effect size estimates corrected for publication bias. Research on the reproducibility of meta-analyses reveals that errors are common, and the percentage of effect size calculations that cannot be reproduced is much higher than is desirable. Furthermore, the flexibility in inclusion criteria when performing a meta-analysis, combined with the many conflicting conclusions drawn by meta-analyses of the same set of studies performed by different researchers, has led some people to doubt whether meta-analyses can provide objective conclusions.

Discussion

The present article highlights the need to improve the reproducibility of meta-analyses to facilitate the identification of errors, allow researchers to examine the impact of subjective choices such as inclusion criteria, and update the meta-analysis after several years. Reproducibility can be improved by applying standardized reporting guidelines and sharing all meta-analytic data underlying the meta-analysis, including quotes from articles to specify how effect sizes were calculated. Pre-registration of the research protocol (which can be peer-reviewed using novel ‘registered report’ formats) can be used to distinguish a-priori analysis plans from data-driven choices, and reduce the amount of criticism after the results are known.

Summary

The recommendations put forward in this article aim to improve the reproducibility of meta-analyses. In addition, they have the benefit of “future-proofing” meta-analyses by allowing the shared data to be re-analyzed as new theoretical viewpoints emerge or as novel statistical techniques are developed. Adoption of these practices will lead to increased credibility of meta-analytic conclusions, and facilitate cumulative scientific knowledge.

Feeling the future: A meta-analysis of 90 experiments on the anomalous anticipation of random future events

In 2011, one of the authors (DJB) published a report of nine experiments in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology purporting to demonstrate that an individual's cognitive and affective responses can be influenced by randomly selected stimulus events that do not occur until after his or her responses have already been made and recorded, a generalized variant of the phenomenon traditionally denoted by the term precognition. To encourage replications, all materials needed to conduct them were made available on request. We here report a meta-analysis of 90 experiments from 33 laboratories in 14 countries which yielded an overall effect greater than 6 sigma, z = 6.40, p = 1.2 × 10 (-10 ) with an effect size (Hedges' g) of 0.09. A Bayesian analysis yielded a Bayes Factor of 5.1 × 10 (9), greatly exceeding the criterion value of 100 for "decisive evidence" in support of the experimental hypothesis. When DJB's original experiments are excluded, the combined effect size for replications by independent investigators is 0.06, z = 4.16, p = 1.1 × 10 (-5), and the BF value is 3,853, again exceeding the criterion for "decisive evidence." The number of potentially unretrieved experiments required to reduce the overall effect size of the complete database to a trivial value of 0.01 is 544, and seven of eight additional statistical tests support the conclusion that the database is not significantly compromised by either selection bias or by intense " p-hacking"-the selective suppression of findings or analyses that failed to yield statistical significance. P-curve analysis, a recently introduced statistical technique, estimates the true effect size of the experiments to be 0.20 for the complete database and 0.24 for the independent replications, virtually identical to the effect size of DJB's original experiments (0.22) and the closely related "presentiment" experiments (0.21). We discuss the controversial status of precognition and other anomalous effects collectively known as psi.

Investigating expectation effects using multiple physiological measures

The study aimed at experimentally investigating whether the human body can anticipate future events under improved methodological conditions. Previous studies have reported contradictory results for the phenomenon typically called presentiment. If the positive findings are accurate, they call into doubt our views about human perception, and if they are inaccurate, a plausible conventional explanation might be based on the experimental design of the previous studies, in which expectation due to item sequences was misinterpreted as presentiment. To address these points, we opted to collect several physiological variables, to test different randomization types and to manipulate subjective significance individually. For the latter, we combined a mock crime scenario, in which participants had to steal specific items, with a concealed information test (CIT), in which the participants had to conceal their knowledge when interrogated about items they had stolen or not stolen. We measured electrodermal activity, respiration, finger pulse, heart rate (HR), and reaction times. The participants (n = 154) were assigned randomly to four different groups. Items presented in the CIT were either drawn with replacement (full) or without replacement (pseudo) and were either presented category-wise (cat) or regardless of categories (nocat). To understand how these item sequences influence expectation and modulate physiological reactions, we compared the groups with respect to effect sizes for stolen vs. not stolen items. Group pseudo_cat yielded the highest effect sizes, and pseudo_nocat yielded the lowest. We could not find any evidence of presentiment but did find evidence of physiological correlates of expectation. Due to the design differing fundamentally from previous studies, these findings do not allow for conclusions on the question whether the expectation bias is being confounded with presentiment.

A macroscopic violation of no-signaling in time inequalities? How to test temporal entanglement with behavioral observables

In this paper we applied for the first time the no-signaling in time (NSIT) formalism discussed by Kofler and Brukner (2013) to investigate temporal entanglement between binary human behavioral unconscious choices at t1 with binary random outcomes at t2. NSIT consists of a set of inequalities and represents mathematical conditions for macro-realism which require only two measurements in time. The analyses of three independent experiments show a strong violation of NSIT in two out of three of them, suggesting the hypothesis of a quantum-like temporal entanglement between human choices at t1 with binary random outcomes at t2. We discuss the potentialities of using NSIT to test temporal entanglement with behavioral measures.