Mortality, fertility, and economic development: An analysis of 201 countries from 1960 to 2015

Development of the Demographic Dividend Effort Index, a novel tool to measure existing efforts to create a favourable environment to harness a demographic dividend: results from an experts' survey from six sub-Saharan African countries

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop a tool to measure the extent of national efforts in policies, services, research and programmes implemented to cultivate and harness the benefits of a potential demographic dividend in six sub-Saharan African countries.

DESIGN

The survey was self-administered online using the SurveyMonkey platform. The survey questionnaire covered six key sectors: family planning, maternal and child health, education, women's empowerment, labour market, and governance and economic institution. Each sector-specific questionnaire was structured around five practice domains: policymaking, services and programmes, advocacy, research and civil society. Each item was scored from 1 to 10. Factor analysis was used to select the items to be retained for final score estimation. Simple averages were computed to estimate sectoral and domain scores and overall country scores were estimated using weighted country mean scores. Internal consistency, construct validity and reliability were examined using factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha.

SETTING

Sub-Saharan Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 440 knowledgeable informants from six countries; namely, Ethiopia (73), Kenya (69), Nigeria (67), Rwanda (54), Senegal (81) and Tanzania (96).

RESULTS

Based on the results from factor analysis, 38 items were dropped from the analysis and Cronbach's alpha results ranged from 0.84 to 0.98 across domains. The overall demographic dividend effort index (DDEI) scores ranged between 5.4 (95% CI 5.1 to 5.8) in Ethiopia to 7.7 (95% CI 7.5 to 8.0) in Rwanda. In most countries, the disaggregated scores by sector revealed low scores in the labour market and women's empowerment.

CONCLUSION

The DDEI scores highlight important gaps in key health and development sectors. The DDEI proved to be a reliable and internally consistent tool for effort measurement in key demographic dividend sectors. The DDEI can serve as a self-evaluation tool for local actors and may complement existing quantitative tools such as the Global Gender Gap and the Human Capital Index.

Generating and capitalizing on the demographic dividend potential in sub-Saharan Africa: a conceptual framework from a systematic literature review

Background: Africa will double its population by 2050 and more than half will be below age 25. The continent has a unique opportunity to boost its socioeconomic welfare. This systematic literature review aims to develop a conceptual framework that identifies policies and programs that have provided a favorable environment for generating and harnessing a demographic dividend. This framework can facilitate sub-Saharan African countries' understanding of needed actions to accelerate their demographic transition and capitalize on their demographic dividend potential. Methods: The search strategy was structured around three concepts: economic development, fertility, and sub-Saharan Africa. Databases used included PubMed and EconLit. An inductive approach was employed to expand the reference base further. Data were extracted using literature records following a checklist of items to include when reporting a systematic review suggested in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement. Results: The final review consisted of 78 peer-reviewed articles, ten reports from the gray literature, and one book. Data were categorized according to relevant demographic dividend typology: pre-dividend and early-dividend. The results from the literature review were synthesized into a framework consisting of five sectors for pre-dividend countries, namely 1) Governance and Economic Institutions, 2) Family Planning, 3) Maternal and Child Health, 4) Education, and 5) Women's Empowerment. An additional sector, 6) Labor Market, is added for early-dividend countries. These sectors must work together to attain a demographic dividend. Conclusions: A country's demographic transition stage must guide policy and programs. Most sub-Saharan African countries have prioritized job creation and employment for youth, yet their efforts to secure a productive labor market require preliminary and complementary investments in governance, family planning, maternal and child health, education, and women's empowerment. Creating a favorable policy environment for generating and capitalizing on a demographic dividend can support their stated goals for development.