The impact of COVID-19 on mortality after hip fracture : a population cohort study from England

Association between markers of inflammation and outcomes after hip fracture surgery: analysis of routinely collected electronic healthcare data

BACKGROUND

Risk assessment tools such as the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) are crucial in guiding prognostic discussions and benchmarking in hip fracture care. These scores have scope to be improved, which may help identify higher-risk patients at admission. We investigated the role of inflammatory biomarkers, which are routinely collected at admission, in predicting post-operative outcomes following hip fracture. We subsequently combined these biomarkers with the NHFS to see if we could enhance risk prediction.

METHODS

We analysed data from patients admitted to a trauma unit with hip fracture between 2015 and 2020 who underwent operative management. National hip fracture database (NHFD) data, including the NHFS, were linked with admission biomarkers: albumin, C-reactive protein (CRP), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and monocyte-lymphocyte ratio (MLR). Following univariate and multivariate analyses, the discrimination of the NHFS with and without each biomarker was assessed for 30-day mortality, length of stay (LOS), and failure to return home at 30 days.

RESULTS

We analysed 1039 patients, 719 (69.2%) were female and the mean age was 82.5 years (SD 8.1, range 60-104). In multivariate analysis, higher CRP was associated with higher 30-day mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.23, 95%, confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.44, p = 0.013); higher albumin was associated with lower 30-day mortality (OR 0.86, 95%CI 0.81-0.91, p < 0.001). Independent predictors of not returning home at 30 days included albumin (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.98) and NLR (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.14-1.81). NLR and MLR were significantly associated with prolonged LOS but not 30-day mortality. A composite variable of NHFS and albumin had better discrimination for 30-day mortality than NHFS alone (c-statistics 0.74, 95% CI 0.68-0.80 vs. 0.68, 95% CI 0.62-0.75, respectively). CRP, NLR and MLR did not improve discrimination for any outcome when added to NHFS.

CONCLUSIONS

Albumin, but not other markers of inflammation, enhances risk prediction after hip fracture when added to the NHFS. Routine recording of albumin at admission may have a future role in an enhanced risk scoring system for prognostication in hip fracture surgery.

Facilitating clinical trials in hip fracture in the UK : the role and potential of the National Hip Fracture Database and routinely collected data

Aims

The aim of this study was to evaluate the suitability, against an accepted international standard, of a linked hip fracture registry and routinely collected administrative dataset in England to embed and deliver randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

Methods

First, a bespoke cohort of individuals sustaining hip fractures between 2011 and 2016 was generated from the National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) and linked to individual Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) records and mortality data. Second, in order to explore the availability and distribution of outcomes available in linked HES-Office of National Statistics (ONS) data, a more contemporary cohort with incident hip fracture was identified within HES between January 2014 and December 2018. Distributions of the outcomes within the HES-ONS dataset were reported using standard statistical summaries; descriptive characteristics of the NHFD and linked HES-ONS dataset were reported in line with the Clinical Trials Transformation Initiative recommendations for registry-enabled trials.

Results

Case ascertainment of the NHFD likely exceeds 94%. The assessment of the robustness, relevance, and reliability of the datasets was favourable. Outcomes from the HES-ONS dataset were concordant with other contemporaneous prospective cohort studies with bespoke data collection frameworks.

Conclusion

Our findings support the feasibility of the NHFD and HES-ONS to support a registry-embedded, data-enabled RCT.

Delay to surgery beyond 12 hours is associated with increased hip fracture mortality

PURPOSE

Time to surgery from admission is one of the few variables known to influence outcome after a hip fracture. We reviewed our hip fracture database to determine correlation between delays to surgery and mortality in our elderly hip fracture population.

METHODS

Data on all hip fracture patients admitted to a large district hospital were prospectively collected between January 1989 and August 2021. Time of the injury, time of admission and time of surgery were recorded. Patients over 60 years old with a hip fracture requiring operative management were included. Patients with pathological fractures, those managed conservatively, and patients delayed for medical reasons were excluded. Surgical timing categories were divided into; under 12 h, 12-24 h, 24-72 h and over 72 h.

RESULTS

Time from admission to surgery was recorded for 10,659 patients, of these time of fall was available for 10,346 patients. Mean age was 82.2 years (sd 8.39) for the cohort and 30 day mortality was 6.20%. Odds of 30-day mortality was 1.43 (CI 1.057-1.988, p = 0.025) for delay to surgery from admission of over 12 h compared to under 12 h. Odds ratios for 30-day mortality were not significant at any other time threshold. The odds of 30-day mortality for delay to surgery from time of fall were 1.550 (CI 1.026-2.459, p = 0.048) at the 12 h threshold.

CONCLUSION

This is the largest prospective study to date in elderly patients with hip fractures demonstrating a statistically significant increase in 30-day mortality with a delay to surgery over 12 h.

The Impact of Implementation of Palliative, Non-Operative Management on Mortality of Operatively Treated Geriatric Hip Fracture Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

(1) Background: Hip fracture patients with very limited life expectancy can opt for non-operative management (NOM) within a palliative care context. The implementation of NOM in the palliative context may affect the mortality of the operatively treated population. This retrospective cohort study aimed to determine whether the operatively treated geriatric hip fracture population would have a lower in-hospital mortality rate and fewer postoperative complications after the introduction of NOM within a palliative care context for patients with very limited life expectancy. (2) Methods: Data from 1 February 2019 to 1 February 2022 of patients aged 70 years or older were analyzed to give a comparison between patients before and after implementation of NOM within a palliative care context. (3) Results: Comparison between 550 patients before and 485 patients after implementation showed no significant difference in in-hospital or 1-year mortality rates (2.9% vs. 1.4%, p = 0.139; 22.4% vs. 20.2%, p = 0.404, respectively). Notably, post-implementation, fewer patients had prior dementia diagnoses (15% vs. 21%, p = 0.010), and intensive care unit admissions decreased (3.5% vs. 1.2%, p = 0.025). (4) Conclusions: The implementation of NOM within a palliative care context did not significantly reduce mortality or complications. However, NOM within palliative care is deemed a more patient-centered approach for geriatric hip fracture patients with very limited life expectancy.

Adjusting expected deaths for mortality displacement during the COVID-19 pandemic: a model based counterfactual approach at the level of individuals

BACKGROUND

Near-real time surveillance of excess mortality has been an essential tool during the COVID-19 pandemic. It remains critical for monitoring mortality as the pandemic wanes, to detect fluctuations in the death rate associated both with the longer-term impact of the pandemic (e.g. infection, containment measures and reduced service provision by the health and other systems) and the responses that followed (e.g. curtailment of containment measures, vaccination and the response of health and other systems to backlogs). Following the relaxing of social distancing regimes and reduction in the availability of testing, across many countries, it becomes critical to measure the impact of COVID-19 infection. However, prolonged periods of mortality in excess of the expected across entire populations has raised doubts over the validity of using unadjusted historic estimates of mortality to calculate the expected numbers of deaths that form the baseline for computing numbers of excess deaths because many individuals died earlier than they would otherwise have done: i.e. their mortality was displaced earlier in time to occur during the pandemic rather than when historic rates predicted. This is also often termed "harvesting" in the literature.

METHODS

We present a novel Cox-regression-based methodology using time-dependent covariates to estimate the profile of the increased risk of death across time in individuals who contracted COVID-19 among a population of hip fracture patients in England (N = 98,365). We use these hazards to simulate a distribution of survival times, in the presence of a COVID-19 positive test, and then calculate survival times based on hazard rates without a positive test and use the difference between the medians of these distributions to estimate the number of days a death has been displaced. This methodology is applied at the individual level, rather than the population level to provide a better understanding of the impact of a positive COVID-19 test on the mortality of groups with different vulnerabilities conferred by sociodemographic and health characteristics. Finally, we apply the mortality displacement estimates to adjust estimates of excess mortality using a "ball and urn" model.

RESULTS

Among the exemplar population we present an end-to-end application of our methodology to estimate the extent of mortality displacement. A greater proportion of older, male and frailer individuals were subject to significant displacement while the magnitude of displacement was higher in younger females and in individuals with lower frailty: groups who, in the absence of COVID-19, should have had a substantial life expectancy.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that calculating the expected number of deaths following the first wave of the pandemic in England based solely on historical trends results in an overestimate, and excess mortality will therefore be underestimated. Our findings, using this exemplar dataset are conditional on having experienced a hip fracture, which is not generalisable to the general population. Fractures that impede mobility in the weeks that follow the accident/surgery considerably shorten life expectancy and are in themselves markers of significant frailty. It is therefore important to apply these novel methods to the general population, among whom we anticipate strong patterns in mortality displacement - both in its length and prevalence - by age, sex, frailty and types of comorbidities. This counterfactual method may also be used to investigate a wider range of disruptive population health events. This has important implications for public health monitoring and the interpretation of public health data in England and globally.

Clinical outcomes of non-COVID-19 orthopaedic patients admitted during the COVID-19 pandemic: a multi-centre interrupted time series analysis across hospitals in six different countries

OBJECTIVES

To assess across seven hospitals from six different countries the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic affected the volumes of orthopaedic hospital admissions and patient outcomes for non-COVID-19 patients admitted for orthopaedic care.

DESIGN

A multi-centre interrupted time series (ITS) analysis.

SETTING

Seven hospitals from six countries who collaborated within the Global Health Data@Work collaborative.

PARTICIPANTS

Non-COVID-19 patients admitted for orthopaedic care during the pre-pandemic (January/2018-February/2020) and COVID-19 pandemic (March/2020-June/2021) period. Admissions were categorised as: (1) acute admissions (lower limb fractures/neck of femur fractures/pathological fractures/joint dislocations/upper limb fractures); (2) subacute admissions (bone cancer); (3) elective admissions (osteoarthritis).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Monthly observed versus expected ratios (O/E) were calculated for in-hospital mortality, long (upper-decile) length-of-stay and hospital readmissions, with expected rates calculated based on case-mix. An ITS design was used to estimate the change in level and/or trend of the monthly O/E ratio by comparing the COVID-19 pandemic with the pre-pandemic period.

RESULTS

69 221 (pre-pandemic) and 22 940 (COVID-19 pandemic) non-COVID-19 orthopaedic patient admissions were included. Admission volumes were reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic for all admission categories (range: 33%-45%), with more complex patients treated as shown by higher percentages of patients admitted with ≥1 comorbidity (53.8% versus 49.8%, p<0.001). The COVID-19 pandemic was not associated with significant changes in patient outcomes for most diagnostic groups. Only for patients diagnosed with pathological fractures (pre-pandemic n=1671 and pandemic n=749), the COVID-19 pandemic was significantly associated with an immediate mortality reduction (level change of -77.7%, 95% CI -127.9% to -25.7%) and for lower limb fracture patients (pre-pandemic n=9898 and pandemic n=3307) with a significantly reduced trend in readmissions (trend change of -6.3% per month, 95% CI -11.0% to -1.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Acute, subacute, as well as elective orthopaedic hospital admissions volumes were reduced in all global participating hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, while overall patient outcomes for most admitted non-COVID-19 patients remained the same despite the strain caused by the surge of COVID-19 patients.

How future surgery will benefit from SARS-COV-2-related measures: a SPIGC survey conveying the perspective of Italian surgeons

COVID-19 negatively affected surgical activity, but the potential benefits resulting from adopted measures remain unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the change in surgical activity and potential benefit from COVID-19 measures in perspective of Italian surgeons on behalf of SPIGC. A nationwide online survey on surgical practice before, during, and after COVID-19 pandemic was conducted in March-April 2022 (NCT:05323851). Effects of COVID-19 hospital-related measures on surgical patients' management and personal professional development across surgical specialties were explored. Data on demographics, pre-operative/peri-operative/post-operative management, and professional development were collected. Outcomes were matched with the corresponding volume. Four hundred and seventy-three respondents were included in final analysis across 14 surgical specialties. Since SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, application of telematic consultations (4.1% vs. 21.6%; p < 0.0001) and diagnostic evaluations (16.4% vs. 42.2%; p < 0.0001) increased. Elective surgical activities significantly reduced and surgeons opted more frequently for conservative management with a possible indication for elective (26.3% vs. 35.7%; p < 0.0001) or urgent (20.4% vs. 38.5%; p < 0.0001) surgery. All new COVID-related measures are perceived to be maintained in the future. Surgeons' personal education online increased from 12.6% (pre-COVID) to 86.6% (post-COVID; p < 0.0001). Online educational activities are considered a beneficial effect from COVID pandemic (56.4%). COVID-19 had a great impact on surgical specialties, with significant reduction of operation volume. However, some forced changes turned out to be benefits. Isolation measures pushed the use of telemedicine and telemetric devices for outpatient practice and favored communication for educational purposes and surgeon-patient/family communication. From the Italian surgeons' perspective, COVID-related measures will continue to influence future surgical clinical practice.

Traumatic Proximal Femoral Fractures during COVID-19 Pandemic in the US: An ACS NSQIP® Analysis

In order to determine the impact of COVID-19 on the treatment and outcomes in patients with proximal femoral fracture’s (PFF), we analyzed a national US sample. This is a retrospective review of American College of Surgery’s (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) for patients with proximal femoral fractures. A total of 26,830 and 26,300 patients sustaining PFF and undergoing surgical treatment were sampled during 2019 and 2020, respectively. On multivariable logistic regression, patients were less likely to have ‘presence of non-healing wound’ (p < 0.001), functional status ‘independent’ (p = 0.012), undergo surgical procedures of ‘hemiarthroplasty’(p = 0.002) and ‘ORIF IT, Peritroch, Subtroch with plates and screws’ (p < 0.001) and to be ‘alive at 30-days post-op’ (p = 0.001) in 2020 as compared to 2019. Patients were more likely to have a case status ‘emergent’, ‘loss of ≥10% body weight’, discharge destination of ‘home’ (p < 0.001 for each) or ‘leaving against medical advice’ (p = 0.026), postoperative ‘acute renal failure (ARF)’ (p = 0.011), ‘myocardial infarction (MI)’ (p = 0.006), ‘pulmonary embolism (PE)’ (p = 0.047), and ‘deep venous thrombosis (DVT)’ (p = 0.049) in 2020 as compared to 2019. Patients sustaining PFF and undergoing surgical treatment during pandemic year 2020 differed significantly in preoperative characteristics and 30-day postoperative complications when compared to patients from the previous year.