Functional trajectories in the year before hospice

Associations of baseline and longitudinal changes in basic activity of daily living with risk of cardiovascular disease among older adults in China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The purpose of this study was to examine the associations of basic activities of daily living (BADL) and its longitudinal changes with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among older population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a prospective analysis of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey between 2008 and 2018 in 7051 participants aged 65 years or over. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate the associations of baseline and longitudinal changes in BADL with the incidence of CVD. A total of 1510 incident CVD cases were identified. The participants with BADL limitation at baseline had a 67 % increased risk of CVD compared with those without BADL limitation (multivariable-adjusted hazards ratio (HR): 1.67, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.35-2.07). Moreover, participants with persistent BADL limitation (HR: 2.25, 95 % CI: 1.73-2.93), BADL from limitation to non-limitation (HR: 1.80, 95 % CI: 1.27-2.54), and BADL from non-limitation to limitation (HR: 1.86, 95 % CI: 1.62-2.14) were each experienced a higher risk of CVD compared with those with persistent BADL non-limitation. Of all the items of BADL, limitation of bathing or multiple BADL limitations (≥2) was positively associated with the risk of stroke.

CONCLUSION

Longitudinally persistent BADL limitation was associated with a more than twofold risk of CVD in later life among the Chinese older adults. Similar but slightly weak association was also observed for temporary BADL limitation. Older adults with BADL limitation, especially those with bathing limitation or with multiple functional limitations, should be the target population for CVD prevention.

Using volunteers to improve access to community rehabilitation in palliative care: the St Christopher's Living Well at Home Team

Background

UK hospices often provide outpatient rehabilitation services for people with advanced progressive illness. However, some people are unable to travel, leading to inequity in rehabilitation access.

Objectives

The Living Well at Home Team (LWAHT) at St Christopher's Hospice aimed to evaluate whether using volunteers to support rehabilitation in peoples' homes improved the reach of rehabilitation for people living in underserved localities and if it supported people to optimise their functional independence.

Methods

This service improvement project evaluated hospice rehabilitation uptake during the implementation of volunteer-supported community rehabilitation. Following assessment by an LWAHT therapist, eligible people were matched with a trained volunteer who supported four to eight rehabilitation sessions in the person's home. The evaluation assessed uptake of the rehabilitation sessions. Mobility, wellbeing, and goal attainment outcomes were assessed by the Life-Space Assessment (LSA), General Health Questionnaire (GHQ), and Goal Attainment Scale (GAS), respectively.

Results

In the first year, 183 patients were referred to the LWAHT; 123 were assessed and 96 received rehabilitation including 56 who were matched with a volunteer. Following volunteer support, patients reported significant improvements in mobility [LSA median 20 (IQR, 3.5-27.8)], general health [GHQ -2 (-5.25 to 0)], and achievement of goals [GAS T-score +8 (0-18.4)].

Conclusions

It was feasible to support community rehabilitation using hospice volunteers for people with advanced progressive illness. The LWAHT service also increased the uptake of hospice centre-based rehabilitation. Further work should test efficacy and identify patients requiring additional professional input.

Key message

This is the first known study reporting on the use of trained rehabilitation volunteers to extend the reach of hospice rehabilitation services. People with limited access to the hospice, because of geographical location or personal circumstances, valued and benefited from tailored rehabilitation supported by the volunteers in their own homes.

Machine learning-based prediction of disability risk in geriatric patients with hypertension for different time intervals

BACKGROUND

The risk of disability in older adults with hypertension is substantially high, and prediction of disability risk is crucial for subsequent management. This study aimed to construct prediction models of disability risk for geriatric patients with hypertension at different time intervals, as well as to assess the important predictors and influencing factors of disability.

METHODS

This study collected data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study. There were 1576, 1083 and 506 hypertension patients aged 65+ in 2008 who were free of disability at baseline and had completed outcome information in follow-up of 2008-2012, 2008-2014, 2008-2018. We built five machine learning (ML) models to predict the disability risk. The classic statistical logistic regression (classic-LR) and shapley additive explanations (SHAP) was further introduced to explore possible causal factors and interpret the optimal models' decisions.

RESULTS

Among the five ML models, logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, and deep neural network were the optimal models for detecting 4-, 6-, and 10-year disability risk with their AUC-ROCs reached 0.759, 0.728, 0.694 respectively. The classic-LR revealed potential casual factors for disability and the results of SHAP demonstrated important features for risk prediction, reinforcing the trust of decision makers towards black-box models.

CONCLUSION

The optimal models hold promise for screening out hypertensive old adults at high risk of disability to implement further targeted intervention and the identified key factors may be of additional value in analyzing the causal mechanisms of disability, thereby providing basis to practical application.

Interpretable classifiers for prediction of disability trajectories using a nationwide longitudinal database

OBJECTIVES

To explore the heterogeneous disability trajectories and construct explainable machine learning models for effective prediction of long-term disability trajectories and understanding the mechanisms of predictions among the elderly Chinese at community level.

METHODS

This study retrospectively collected data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study between 2002 and 2018. A total of 4149 subjects aged 65 + in 2002 with completed activities of daily living (ADL) information for at least three waves were included. The mixed growth model was used to identify disability trajectories, and five machine learning models were further established to predict disability trajectories using epidemiological variables. An explainable approach was deployed to understand the model's decisions.

RESULTS

Three distinct disability trajectories, including normal class (77.3%), progressive class (15.5%), and high-onset class (7.2%), were identified for three-class prediction. The latter two were further merged into abnormal class, accompanied by normal class for two-class prediction. Machine learning, especially random forest and extreme gradient boosting achieved good performance in both two tasks. ADL, age, leisure activity, cognitive function, and blood pressure were key predictors.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that machine learning showed good performance and maybe of additional value in analyzing quality indicators in predicting disability trajectories, thereby providing basis to personalize intervention measures.

Trajectories of disability in activities of daily living in advanced cancer or respiratory disease: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Advanced cancer and/or respiratory disease threaten a person's independence in activities of daily living (ADL). Understanding how disability develops can help direct appropriate and timely interventions.

AIM

To identify different trajectories and associations of disability in ADL and appraise its measurement.

METHODS

Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, and CINAHL databases were searched for cohort studies with measures of disability in ADL in advanced cancer or respiratory disease at three or more timepoints. Data were narratively synthesized to produce a typology of disability trajectories and a model of factors and outcomes associated with increasing disability.

RESULTS

Of 5702 publications screened, 11 were included. Seventy-four disability trajectories were categorized into typologies of unchanging (n = 20), fluctuating (n = 21), and increasing disability (n = 33). Respiratory disease did not predict any particular disability trajectory. Advanced cancer frequently followed trajectories of increasing disability. Factors associated with increasing disability included: frailty, multi-morbidity, cognitive impairment, and infection. Increased disability led to recurrent hospital admissions, long-term care, and/or death. Methodological limitations included use of non-validated measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing disability trajectories in advanced cancer and/or respiratory disease is related to potentially modifiable personal and environmental factors. We recommend future studies using validated disability instruments.Implications for rehabilitationDisability in activities of daily living (ADL) is a common unmet need in advanced cancer or respiratory disease and represents an important outcome for patients, caregivers and health and social care services.Trajectories of ADL disability can be categorized into increasing, fluctuating, and unchanging disability, which could help planning of rehabilitation services in advanced cancer or respiratory disease.Increasing disability in advanced cancer or respiratory disease relates to personal and environmental factors as well as bodily impairments, which can all be modifiable by intervention.This review highlights implications for the measurement of ADL disability in advanced cancer or respiratory disease and recommends use of validated measures of ADL to understand what factors can be modified through rehabilitation interventions.

Care dependency of patients and residents at the end of life: A secondary data analysis of data from a cross-sectional study in hospitals and geriatric institutions

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The holistic care dependency concept can be applied to gain comprehensive insights into individuals' care needs in the end-of-life (EoL) phase. This study was carried out to measure and characterise the "care dependency" phenomenon in this phase and to obtain deeper knowledge about this phenomenon.

BACKGROUND

The end of a human life is often characterised by a physical decline, often implying that a high amount of care is needed. Non-malignant diseases can develop unpredictably; therefore, it is difficult to detect the onset of the EoL phase.

DESIGN

Data were collected in a cross-sectional multicentre study, using the Austrian Nursing Quality Measurement 2.0.

METHODS

Descriptive and multivariate statistical methods were used. Care dependency was measured with the Care Dependency Scale (CDS). The study follows the STROBE guideline.

RESULTS

Ten per cent (n = 389) of the sample (N = 3589) were allocated to "a pathway for management of patients at the end of life." The patients and residents in the EoL phase are significantly older and more often diagnosed with dementia, and circulatory system and musculoskeletal system diseases. Of these patients, 60% were care dependent completely or to a great extent. Dementia and age represent main influencing factors that affect the degree of care dependency at the end of life.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that the "typical" EoL patient or resident is female, old and affected by dementia and/or circulatory system diseases. Dementia and age were identified as main factors that contribute to very high care dependency.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

The measurement of care dependency may support the identification of special care needs in the EoL phase. Gaining deeper knowledge about the care dependency phenomenon can also help healthcare staff better understand the needs of patients with non-malignant conditions in their last phase of life.

Trajectories of end-of-life medical and long-term care expenditures for older adults in Japan: retrospective longitudinal study using a large-scale linked database of medical and long-term care claims

BACKGROUND

An accurate understanding of the current state of end-of-life care is important for healthcare planning. The objectives of this study were to examine the trajectories of end-of-life medical and long-term care expenditures and associated factors.

METHODS

This was a retrospective longitudinal study using a large-scale linked database of medical and long-term care claims-National Health Insurance, Advanced Elderly Medical Insurance, and long-term care insurance-covering Prefecture A in Japan. Patients aged ≥70 years who died between April 1, 2016, and March 31, 2017, were included (N = 16,084 patients; mean age = 85.1 ± 7.5 years; 7804 men (48.5%) and 8280 women (51.5%)). The outcome measures were medical expenditures (inpatient, outpatient, and prescription), long-term care expenditures, and total healthcare expenditures (the sum of medical and long-term care expenditures) during the 60 months before the date of death. We calculated each patient's monthly medical and long-term care expenditures for 60 months before the date of death and applied group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct trajectories. Factors associated with spending trajectories were examined via multinomial logistic regression analyses. Explanatory variables included age, sex, diseases, and the medical services used.

RESULTS

We identified six distinct spending trajectories for the total healthcare expenditures: high persistent (45.6%), medium-to-high persistent (26.1%), early rise then high persistent (9.8%), late rise (6.4%), low persistent then very late rise (i.e., when spending starts increasing later than "late rise"; 6.4%), and progressive increase (5.7%). Factors associated with the high-persistent trajectory were chronic illnesses, various organ failures, neurodegenerative diseases, fractures, and tube feeding. The trajectory pattern of medical expenditures was similar to that of total healthcare expenditures; however, a different pattern was seen for long-term care expenditures.

CONCLUSIONS

Regarding combined medical and long-term care spending of the last 5 years, most patients belonged to a pattern in which the healthcare expenditures remained high, and a combination of multiple factors contributed to these patterns. This finding can offer healthcare providers a longer-term perspective on end-of-life care.

Heterogeneous Long-Term Trajectories of Dependency in Older Adults: The PAQUID Cohort, a Population-Based Study over 22 years

BACKGROUND

A critical step toward successful aging is to identify opportunities for prevention of functional decline. Our aim was to describe the heterogeneity in trajectories of dependency preceding death in elders and to identify factors associated with this heterogeneity.

METHODS

The study relied on 3,238 participants of the prospective population-based PAQUID cohort aged 65+ at baseline in 1988. Dependency was defined from an 11-item scale of basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADL: bathing, dressing, toileting, continence, eating, and transferring; instrumental activities of daily living (IADL): telephoning, shopping, using transport, handling medication, and managing finances) collected over 22 years. Heterogeneous trajectories were estimated using a longitudinal item response theory model including latent classes.

RESULTS

Five distinct profiles of functional dependency were identified over the two last decades of life: persistently high (12%), moderate (26%), persistently low (40%), and accelerated high dependency (15%), and no dependency (8%). Main factors associated with heterogeneity included age at death, sex, education, initial cognition (Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE] score and dementia), initial disability, and poly-medication.

CONCLUSIONS

In the two last decades of life, more than 9 elders in 10 were characterized as functional decliners. On average, around half of the elders died with no or mild dependency, while 27% live several years with a high level of limitations and would need assistance in activities of daily living, at least for 2-4 years preceding death. The identified factors associated with these trajectories are important to understand functional heterogeneity in elders and to propose interventions to postpone or prevent "chronic" disability.

Using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health to Document Hospice Eligibility

Hospice documentation is an integral part of patient care as it not only paints the picture of hospice eligibility, but also tells the final chapter of a patient's life. Increasingly, hospices are under scrutiny by regulators to clearly define the admission and ongoing eligibility of the hospice patient. There is a lack of national standardization of documentation. The World Health Organization, in an effort to develop a common language among providers, developed the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). Utilizing the ICF can assist with the documentation that establishes the eligibility of the hospice patient. Concepts from the ICF are applied to a case study of a patient with Parkinson's disease. The ICF has barriers and limitations for documentation of the eligibility of the hospice patient, but overall, its use is recommended by the hospice interdisciplinary team.

Quality of Life Trends in People With and Without Cancer Referred to Volunteer-Provided Palliative Care Services (ELSA): A Longitudinal Study

CONTEXT

Trends in symptoms and functional ability are known toward the end of life, but less is understood about quality of life, particularly prospectively following service referral.

OBJECTIVES

This study compares quality of life trajectories of people with and without cancer, referred to volunteer-provided palliative care services.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of the ELSA trial (n = 85 people with cancer and n = 72 without cancer) was performed. Quality of life data (WHOQOL-BREF) were collected at baseline (referral), four weeks, eight weeks, and 12 weeks. Sociodemographic data were collected at baseline. We specified a series of joint models to estimate differences on quality of life trajectories between groups adjusting for participants who die earlier in the study.

RESULTS

People with cancer had a significantly better quality of life at referral to the volunteer-provided palliative care services than those with nonmalignant disease despite similar demographic characteristics (Cohen d's = 0.37 to 0.45). More people with cancer died during the period of the study. We observed significant differences in quality of life physical and environmental domain trajectories between groups (b = -2.35, CI -4.49, -0.21, and b = -4.11, CI -6.45, -1.76). People with cancer experienced a greater decline in quality of life than those with nonmalignant disease.

CONCLUSION

Referral triggers for those with and without cancer may be different. People with cancer can be expected to have a more rapid decline in quality of life from the point of service referral. This may indicate greater support needs, including from volunteer-provided palliative care services.

Distinct Patterns of Conjoint Symptom Distress and Functional Impairment in the Last Year of Life Predict Terminally Ill Cancer Patients' Survival

CONTEXT/OBJECTIVES

Our study addressed important knowledge gaps about trajectories of distinct conjoint symptom-functional states, that is, patterns for different levels of combined symptom distress and functional impairment, over cancer patients' last year and their ability to predict survival.

METHODS

We identified distinct symptom-functional states and explored their changes over 317 terminally ill cancer patients' last year by a transition model using hidden Markov modeling. These distinct symptom-functional states' ability to predict current survival probability, measured in the previous assessment, was evaluated by multivariate Cox regression models.

RESULTS

We identified five worsening, conjoint symptom-functional states: 1) mild symptom distress with high functioning, 2) moderate symptom distress with mild functional impairment, 3) severe symptom distress with moderate functional impairment, 4) moderate symptom distress with severe functional impairment, and 5) profound symptom distress and functional impairment. Trajectories of these five states differed substantially by direction (downward vs. upward) and speed. Participants in States 1-4 had substantially lower risk of subsequent death than those in State 5 (adjusted hazard ratios [95% CI] ranged from 0.048 [0.028-0.081] to 0.434 [0.316-0.579]). The risk of subsequent death differed significantly between patients in any two distinct symptom-functional states, except between those in States 3 and 4.

CONCLUSION

Our identification of five distinct symptom-functional states and their unique transition patterns and prediction of mortality provides all stakeholders with guides for end-of-life care. Goals of end-of-life care should change toward palliative care and effective symptom management for patients with at least moderate symptom distress and substantial functional impairment.

Medicare Beneficiaries With Advanced Lung Cancer Experience Diverse Patterns Of Care From Diagnosis To Death

Characterizations of average end-of-life care for people with cancer can obscure important differences in patients' experiences. Using Medicare claims data for 14,257 patients diagnosed with extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer in the period 1995-2009, we used latent class analysis to identify classes of people with different care patterns. We characterized care trajectories from diagnosis to death using time spent in five care settings-home, hospital inpatient unit (acute), hospital intensive care unit (ICU), postacute skilled nursing facility, and hospice-and transitions across these settings. We identified four classes of patients: 66 percent spent the time primarily at home, 11 percent were primarily in hospice, 17 percent were largely in an acute setting, and 6 percent were largely in an ICU. Patients in these classes differed significantly in terms of baseline clinical characteristics, survival length, time spent in hospice, site of death, and spending. The findings show substantial heterogeneity in patterns of care for patients with advanced cancer, which should be accounted for in efforts to improve end-of-life care.

Aligning policy objectives and payment design in palliative care

BACKGROUND

Payment models for palliative care vary across nations, with few adopting contemporary payments designs that apply to other parts of the health system.

AIM

To propose optimal payment arrangements for palliative care.

APPROACH

Review of relevant literature on funding mechanisms in health care generally and palliative care in particular.

RESULTS

Payment models for palliative care should move toward activity-based funding using an agreed classification, be uncapped funding with performance monitoring, and make explicit use of performance metrics and reporting.

CONCLUSIONS

If palliative care is to become a universally accessible service, new approaches to funding, based on the experience of funding reforms in other parts of the health system, need to be adopted.

Using intuition or a formal palliative care needs assessment screening process in general practice to predict death within 12 months: A randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Population ageing will lead to more deaths with an uncertain trajectory. Identifying patients at risk of dying could facilitate more effective care planning.

AIM

To determine whether screening for likely death within 12 months is more effective using screening tools or intuition.

DESIGN

Randomised controlled trial of screening tools (Surprise Question plus the Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool for Surprise Question positive patients) to predict those at risk of death at 12 months compared with unguided intuition (clinical trials registry: ACTRN12613000266763).

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Australian general practice. A total of 30 general practitioners (screening tool = 12, intuition = 18) screened all patients ( n = 4365) aged ≥70 years seen at least once in the last 2 years.

RESULTS

There were 142 deaths (screening tool = 3.1%, intuition = 3.3%; p = 0.79). General practitioners identified more at risk of dying using Surprise Question (11.8%) than intuition (5.4%; p = 0.01), but no difference with Surprise Question positive then Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool (5.1%; p = 0.87). Surprise Question positive predicted more deaths (53.2%, intuition = 33.7%; p = 0.001), but Surprise Question positive/Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool predictions were similar (5.1%; p = 0.87 vs intuition). There was no difference in proportions correctly predicted to die (Surprise Question = 1.6%, intuition = 1.1%; p = 0.156 and Surprise Question positive/Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool = 1.1%; p = 0.86 vs intuition). Screening tool had higher sensitivity and lower specificity than intuition, but no difference in positive or negative predictive value.

CONCLUSION

Screening tool was better at predicting actual death than intuition, but with a higher false positive rate. Both were similarly effective at screening the whole cohort for death. Screening for possible death is not the best option for initiating end-of-life planning: recognising increased burden of illness might be a better trigger.

Distressing Symptoms, Disability, and Hospice Services at the End of Life: Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the relationship between the presence and number of restricting symptoms and number of disabilities and subsequent admission to hospice at the end of life.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Greater New Haven, Connecticut, from March 1998 to December 2014.

PARTICIPANTS

Decedents from a cohort of 754 persons aged 70 and older (N = 562).

MEASUREMENTS

Hospice admissions were identified primarily from Medicare claims, and 15 restricting symptoms and disability in 13 activities were assessed during monthly interviews.

RESULTS

During their last year of life, 244 (43.4%) participants were admitted to hospice. The median duration of hospice was 12.5 days (interquartile range 4-43 days). Although the largest increases were observed in the last 2 months of life, the prevalence of restricting symptoms and mean number of restricting symptoms and disabilities in the preceding months were high and trending upward. During a specific month, the likelihood of hospice admission increased by 66% (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.30-2.12) in the setting of any restricting symptoms, by 9% (aHR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.05-1.12) for each additional restricting symptom, and by 10% (aHR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.05-1.14) for each additional disability. Each additional month with any restricting symptoms increased the likelihood of hospice admission by 7% (aHR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01-1.13).

CONCLUSION

Hospice services appear to be suitably targeted to older persons with the greatest needs at the end of life, although the short duration of hospice suggests that additional strategies are needed to better address the high burden of distressing symptoms and disability at the end of life.

Identification Of Four Unique Spending Patterns Among Older Adults In The Last Year Of Life Challenges Standard Assumptions

The assumption that health care spending skyrockets at the end of life might suggest that policy makers should target the last few months of life to control costs. However, spending patterns leading up to death have not been fully examined. We applied a new methodology to administrative claims data for older Medicare beneficiaries who died in 2012 to characterize trajectories of health care spending in the last year of life. After adjustment, we identified four unique spending trajectories among decedents: 48.7 percent had high persistent spending, 29.0 percent had moderate persistent spending, 10.2 percent had progressive spending, and 12.1 percent had late rise spending. High spending throughout the full year before death (approximately half of all decedents) was associated with having multiple chronic conditions but not any specific diseases. These findings suggest that spending at the end of life is a marker of general spending patterns often set in motion long before death.

REHABILITATION IN PALLIATIVE CARE

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to describe the activities and effects of functional rehabilitation in patients receiving palliative care. It is an integrative review, in which LILACS, BDENF, Coleciona SUS (Brazil) and PUBMED were used, 20 articles were selected, subsequently characterized as having designs of medium and low impact, more than half ranked with evidence levels II, III and IV and with samples not always consistent with the research designs. However, the results revealed the potential of rehabilitation to improve the functional status, quality of life and symptoms like pain and anxiety in this population, through interventions that are many times undervalued in palliative care. The conclusion is that rehabilitation is a feasible strategy to combat functional decline and improve the quality of life of patients in palliative care.