Predispensing of antivirals to high-risk individuals in an influenza pandemic

Improving the evidence base for decision making during a pandemic: the example of 2009 influenza A/H1N1

This article synthesizes and extends discussions held during an international meeting on "Surveillance for Decision Making: The Example of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1," held at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics (CCDD), Harvard School of Public Health, on June 14 and 15, 2010. The meeting involved local, national, and global health authorities and academics representing 7 countries on 4 continents. We define the needs for surveillance in terms of the key decisions that must be made in response to a pandemic: how large a response to mount and which control measures to implement, for whom, and when. In doing so, we specify the quantitative evidence required to make informed decisions. We then describe the sources of surveillance and other population-based data that can presently--or in the future--form the basis for such evidence, and the interpretive tools needed to process raw surveillance data. We describe other inputs to decision making besides epidemiologic and surveillance data, and we conclude with key lessons of the 2009 pandemic for designing and planning surveillance in the future.

Pre-dispensing of antivirals to high-risk individuals in an influenza pandemic

We consider the net benefits of pre-dispensing antivirals to high-risk individuals during an influenza pandemic, where the measure of the benefit is the number of severe outcomes (such as deaths or hospitalizations) prevented by antivirals in the whole population. One potential benefit of pre-dispensing is that individuals to whom antivirals have been pre-dispensed may be able to initiate treatment earlier than if they had to wait to obtain and fill a prescription, reducing their risk of progression to severe disease. If this benefit exceeds the side effects of misuse for the category of individuals to whom antivirals were pre-dispensed, and if antiviral supply exceeds overall population demand (which appears relevant for several countries including US in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic), pre-dispensing a quantity of antivirals not exceeding the difference between supply and demand is always beneficial. In this study, we consider the net benefits of pre-dispensing antivirals under various scenarios, including demand exceeding supply, and derive mathematical conditions under which antiviral pre-dispensing is advantageous on balance. For individuals whose relative risk of severe outcome is high enough, such as immunosuppressed individuals (particularly children) and possibly individuals with neurological disorders, pre-dispensing is always beneficial at a given level of antiviral stockpile with modest assumptions on the relative benefit of early treatment by a pre-dispensed course, regardless of the overall population demand for antivirals during the course of an epidemic. Making additional assumptions on either the overall population demand for antivirals (which appear relevant for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic) or on the relative benefit of pre-dispensing would make pre-dispensing net beneficial with inclusion of a larger number of persons such as pregnant women and morbidly obese adults.

Antiviral usage for H1N1 treatment: pros, cons and an argument for broader prescribing guidelines in the United States

Current CDC guidelines for antiviral treatment of people with influenza like illness (ILI) effectively discourage treatment of people with no underlying medical conditions unless they exhibit severe symptoms, such as evidence of lower respiratory tract infection or clinical deterioration. This guidance is unlike that provided by some other countries, which allow for treatment of most moderately symptomatic individuals. We examine evidence for benefits of antiviral usage for influenza treatment, including its relation to severe outcomes for the current pandemic H1N1 strain. We also discuss some of the potential cons of antiviral usage. In the current situation in the US, with an elevated and evidently growing burden of influenza hospitalizations and mortality, a high percentage of individuals infected with influenza (with almost all of those carrying the H1N1pdm strain) among those who exhibit ILI and get tested for influenza virus, very low levels of antiviral resistance and little time left for antiviral resistance to take off before large quantities of vaccine become available, we think it is worthwhile to consider a revision to the current antiviral usage recommendations, such that physicians would be encouraged to consider prescribing antivirals to individuals with moderate to severe symptoms who present for treatment.Note: Very recently CDC has adopted clarifications for its antiviral usage guidelines: http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/antivirals/facts_clinicians.htm.