A mechanistic, stigmergy model of territory formation in solitary animals: Territorial behavior can dampen disease prevalence but increase persistence

Seasonal changes in network connectivity and consequences for pathogen transmission in a solitary carnivore

Seasonal variation in habitat use and animal behavior can alter host contact patterns with potential consequences for pathogen transmission dynamics. The endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) has experienced significant pathogen-induced mortality and continues to be at risk of future epidemics. Prior research has found increased panther movement in Florida's dry versus wet seasons, which may affect panther population connectivity and seasonally increase potential pathogen transmission. Our objective was to determine if Florida panthers are more spatially connected in dry seasons relative to wet seasons, and test if identified connectivity differences resulted in divergent predicted epidemic dynamics. We leveraged extensive panther telemetry data to construct seasonal panther home range overlap networks over an 11 year period. We tested for differences in network connectivity, and used observed network characteristics to simulate transmission of a broad range of pathogens through dry and wet season networks. We found that panthers were more spatially connected in dry seasons than wet seasons. Further, these differences resulted in a trend toward larger and longer pathogen outbreaks when epidemics were initiated in the dry season. Our results demonstrate that seasonal variation in behavioral patterns-even among largely solitary species-can have substantial impacts on epidemic dynamics.

Apathogenic proxies for transmission dynamics of a fatal virus

Identifying drivers of transmission-especially of emerging pathogens-is a formidable challenge for proactive disease management efforts. While close social interactions can be associated with microbial sharing between individuals, and thereby imply dynamics important for transmission, such associations can be obscured by the influences of factors such as shared diets or environments. Directly-transmitted viral agents, specifically those that are rapidly evolving such as many RNA viruses, can allow for high-resolution inference of transmission, and therefore hold promise for elucidating not only which individuals transmit to each other, but also drivers of those transmission events. Here, we tested a novel approach in the Florida panther, which is affected by several directly-transmitted feline retroviruses. We first inferred the transmission network for an apathogenic, directly-transmitted retrovirus, feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), and then used exponential random graph models to determine drivers structuring this network. We then evaluated the utility of these drivers in predicting transmission of the analogously transmitted, pathogenic agent, feline leukemia virus (FeLV), and compared FIV-based predictions of outbreak dynamics against empirical FeLV outbreak data. FIV transmission was primarily driven by panther age class and distances between panther home range centroids. FIV-based modeling predicted FeLV dynamics similarly to common modeling approaches, but with evidence that FIV-based predictions captured the spatial structuring of the observed FeLV outbreak. While FIV-based predictions of FeLV transmission performed only marginally better than standard approaches, our results highlight the value of proactively identifying drivers of transmission-even based on analogously-transmitted, apathogenic agents-in order to predict transmission of emerging infectious agents. The identification of underlying drivers of transmission, such as through our workflow here, therefore holds promise for improving predictions of pathogen transmission in novel host populations, and could provide new strategies for proactive pathogen management in human and animal systems.

How territoriality reduces disease transmission among social insect colonies

Abstract

Social behavior can have a major impact on the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. For animals that live in dense social groups, such as the eusocial insects, pathogens pose an especially large risk because frequent contacts among individuals can allow rapid spread within colonies. While there has been a large body of work examining adaptations to mitigate the spread of infectious disease within social insect colonies, there has been less work on strategies to prevent the introduction of pathogens into colonies in the first place. We develop an agent-based model to examine the effect of territorial behavior on the transmission of infectious diseases between social insect colonies. We find that by preventing the introduction of infected foreign workers into a colony, territoriality can flatten the curve of an epidemic, delaying the introduction of an infectious disease and reducing its maximum prevalence, but only for diseases with moderate to low transmissibility. Our results have implications for understanding how pathogen risk influences the evolution of territorial behavior in social insects and other highly social animals.

Significance statement

Infectious disease outbreaks can impose a large fitness cost to animals that live in social groups. The frequency and pattern of contacts both within and among groups can have a large impact on the speed and extent of an epidemic. Using an individual-based model, we examined how the exclusion of foreign workers from a territory around the nest influences disease transmission between social insect colonies. We find that territoriality can protect colonies from outbreaks of low to moderately contagious pathogens by delaying the spillover from other colonies and reducing the maximum number of workers who are infected. These results suggest that the relative threat posed by infectious diseases may have played an important role in shaping the diversity of territorial behaviors seen in different social insect species.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00265-021-03095-0.

Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales

Analyses of transient dynamics are critical to understanding infectious disease transmission and persistence. Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks. Moreover, greater emphases on non-asymptotic processes will enable timely evaluations of wildlife and human diseases and lead to improved surveillance efforts, preventive responses, and intervention strategies. Here, we explore the contributions of transient analyses in recent models spanning the fields of epidemiology, movement ecology, and parasitology. In addition to their roles in predicting epidemic patterns and endemic outbreaks, we explore transients in the contexts of pathogen transmission, resistance, and avoidance at various scales of the ecological hierarchy. Examples illustrate how (i) transient movement dynamics at the individual host level can modify opportunities for transmission events over time; (ii) within-host energetic processes often lead to transient dynamics in immunity, pathogen load, and transmission potential; (iii) transient connectivity between discrete populations in response to environmental factors and outbreak dynamics can affect disease spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection. Ultimately, we suggest that transient analyses offer deeper insights and raise new, interdisciplinary questions for disease research, consequently broadening the applications of dynamical models for outbreak preparedness and management.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w.

Domestic Dogs and Wild Foxes Interactions in a Wildlife-Domestic Interface of North-Central Chile: Implications for Multi-Host Pathogen Transmission

Domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) often cohabite at interfaces shared by humans and wildlife, interacting with wild canids as predators, prey, competitors and reservoirs of several multi-host pathogens, such as canid-borne micro and macro parasites that could impact on wildlife, livestock and public health. However, spatio-temporal patterns of indirect interactions as promoters of pathogen transfer between domestic and wild canids are largely unknown. In this study, we used camera traps to describe the activity patterns and habitat use of dogs, chilla (Lycalopex griseus) and culpeo (Lycalopex culpaeus) foxes and identify the local-scale factors that may affect the frequency of dog-fox interactions through an anthropization gradient of the Coquimbo region, Chile. We assessed local-scale variables that may predict the number of interactions between dogs and foxes, and compared the time interval between dog-culpeo and dog-chilla interactions. Our findings suggested that closeness to urbanized zones predicts the frequency of indirect interactions between dogs and foxes. We found higher number of dog-fox interactions (60 interactions) at a periurban site adjacent to two coastal towns (Tongoy and Guanaqueros), compared to other two more undisturbed sites (12 interactions) increasingly distanced from urbanized areas. We showed that dogs interacted more frequently with chilla foxes (57 interactions) than with culpeo foxes (15 interactions), and the first interaction type occurred almost exclusively at the periurban site, where dogs and chillas were more frequently detected than in the other sites. We detected a marked temporal segregation between dogs and foxes, but dog-chilla interactions resulted in shorter time intervals (2.5 median days) compared to dog-culpeo interactions (7.6 median days), suggesting a higher potential risk of pathogen spillover between the first species pairing. Based on previous studies, we suggest periurban zones may constitute a potential focus of pathogen exposure between dog and fox populations in the study area. Our research contributes to improving the knowledge on the spatio-temporal patterns of interspecific contact between invasive and native carnivores within the context of multi-host pathogen dynamics. Our outcomes will inform theoretical epidemiological models designed to predict and minimize the contact risk between domestic and threatened species, guiding effective control strategies at the wildlife-domestic interface.