Operational response simulation tool for epidemics within refugee and IDP settlements: A scenario-based case study of the Cox's Bazar settlement

A mixed-method approach to determining contact matrices in the Cox's Bazar refugee settlement

Contact matrices are an important ingredient in age-structured epidemic models to inform the simulated spread of the disease between subgroups of the population. These matrices are generally derived using resource-intensive diary-based surveys and few exist in the Global South or tailored to vulnerable populations. In particular, no contact matrices exist for refugee settlements-locations under-served by epidemic models in general. In this paper, we present a novel, mixed-method approach for deriving contact matrices in populations, which combines a lightweight, rapidly deployable survey with an agent-based model of the population informed by census and behavioural data. We use this method to derive the first set of contact matrices for the Cox's Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh. To validate our approach, we apply it to the UK population and compare our derived matrices with well-known contact matrices collected using traditional methods. Our findings demonstrate that our mixed-method approach successfully addresses some of the challenges faced by traditional and agent-based approaches to deriving contact matrices. It also shows potential for implementation in resource-constrained environments. This work therefore contributes to a broader aim of developing new methods and mechanisms of data collection for modelling disease spread in refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements and better serving these vulnerable communities.

A survey on agents applications in healthcare: Opportunities, challenges and trends

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The agent abstraction is a powerful one, developed decades ago to represent crucial aspects of artificial intelligence research. The meaning has transformed over the years and now there are different nuances across research communities. At its core, an agent is an autonomous computational entity capable of sensing, acting, and capturing interactions with other agents and its environment. This review examines how agent-based techniques have been implemented and evaluated in a specific and very important domain, i.e. healthcare research.

METHODS

We survey key areas of agent-based research in healthcare, e.g. individual and collective behaviours, communicable and non-communicable diseases, and social epidemiology. We propose a systematic search and critical review of relevant recent works, introduced by an exploratory network analysis.

RESULTS

Network analysis enables to devise out 5 main research clusters, the most active authors, and 4 main research topics.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support discussion of some future directions for increasing the value of agent-based approaches in healthcare.

COVID-19 epidemiology and changes in health service utilization in Uganda's refugee settlements during the first year of the pandemic

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by multiple waves with varying rates of transmission affecting countries at different times and magnitudes. Forced displacement settings were considered particularly at risk due to pre-existing vulnerabilities. Yet, the effects of COVID-19 in refugee settings are not well understood. In this study, we report on the epidemiology of COVID-19 cases in Uganda’s refugee settlement regions of West Nile, Center and South, and evaluate how health service utilization changed during the first year of the pandemic.

Methods

We calculate descriptive statistics, testing rates, and incidence rates of COVID-19 cases in UNHCR’s line list and adjusted odds ratios for selected outcomes. We evaluate the changes in health services using monthly routine data from UNHCR’s health information system (January 2017 to March 2021) and apply interrupted time series analysis with a generalized additive model and negative binomial distribution, accounting for long-term trends and seasonality, reporting results as incidence rate ratios.

Findings

The first COVID-19 case was registered in Uganda on March 20, 2020, and among refugees two months later on May 22, 2020 in Adjumani settlement. Incidence rates were higher at national level for the general population compared to refugees by region and overall. Testing capacity in the settlements was lower compared to the national level. Characteristics of COVID-19 cases among refugees in Uganda seem to align with the global epidemiology of COVID-19. Only hospitalization rate was higher than globally reported. The indirect effects of COVID-19 on routine health services and outcomes appear quite consistent across regions. Maternal and child routine and preventative health services seem to have been less affected by COVID-19 than consultations for acute conditions. All regions reported a decrease in consultations for respiratory tract infections.

Interpretation

COVID-19 transmission seemed lower in settlement regions than the national average, but so was testing capacity. Disruptions to health services were limited, and mainly affected consultations for acute conditions. This study, focusing on the first year of the pandemic, warrants follow-up research to investigate how susceptibility evolved over time, and how and whether health services could be maintained.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14305-3.

Bayesian emulation and history matching of JUNE

We analyze JUNE: a detailed model of COVID-19 transmission with high spatial and demographic resolution, developed as part of the RAMP initiative. JUNE requires substantial computational resources to evaluate, making model calibration and general uncertainty analysis extremely challenging. We describe and employ the uncertainty quantification approaches of Bayes linear emulation and history matching to mimic JUNE and to perform a global parameter search, hence identifying regions of parameter space that produce acceptable matches to observed data, and demonstrating the capability of such methods. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Bayesian emulation and history matching of JUNE

We analyze JUNE: a detailed model of COVID-19 transmission with high spatial and demographic resolution, developed as part of the RAMP initiative. JUNE requires substantial computational resources to evaluate, making model calibration and general uncertainty analysis extremely challenging. We describe and employ the uncertainty quantification approaches of Bayes linear emulation and history matching to mimic JUNE and to perform a global parameter search, hence identifying regions of parameter space that produce acceptable matches to observed data, and demonstrating the capability of such methods. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Epidemiological modelling in refugee and internally displaced people settlements: challenges and ways forward

The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world’s most vulnerable populations at risk. Epidemiological modelling is vital to guiding evidence-informed or data-driven decision making. In forced displacement contexts, and in particular refugee and internally displaced people (IDP) settlements, it meets several challenges including data availability and quality, the applicability of existing models to those contexts, the accurate modelling of cultural differences or specificities of those operational settings, the communication of results and uncertainties, as well as the alignment of strategic goals between diverse partners in complex situations. In this paper, we systematically review the limited epidemiological modelling work applied to refugee and IDP settlements so far, and discuss challenges and identify lessons learnt from the process. With the likelihood of disease outbreaks expected to increase in the future as more people are displaced due to conflict and climate change, we call for the development of more approaches and models specifically designed to include the unique features and populations of refugee and IDP settlements. To strengthen collaboration between the modelling and the humanitarian public health communities, we propose a roadmap to encourage the development of systems and frameworks to share needs, build tools and coordinate responses in an efficient and scalable manner, both for this pandemic and for future outbreaks.