Enabling interpretable machine learning for biological data with reliability scores

Unveiling the effect of urinary xenoestrogens on chronic kidney disease in adults: A machine learning model

Exposure to three primary xenoestrogens (XEs), including phthalates, parabens, and phenols, has been strongly associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). An interpretable machine learning (ML) model was developed to predict CKD using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database spanning from 2007 to 2016. Four ML algorithms-random forest classifier (RF), XGBoost (XGB), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and support vector machine (SVM)-were used alongside traditional logistic regression to predict CKD. The study included 6910 U.S. adults, with XGB showing the highest predictive accuracy, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.817 (95 % CI: 0.789, 0.844). The selected model was interpreted using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) and partial dependence plot (PDP). The SHAP method identified key predictive features for CKD in urinary metabolites of XEs-methyl paraben (MeP), mono-(carboxynonyl) phthalate (MCNP), and triclosan (TCS)-and suggested personalized CKD care should focus on XE control. PDP results confirmed that, within certain ranges, MeP levels positively impacted the model, MCNP levels negatively impacted it, and TCS had a mixed effect. The synergistic effects suggested that managing urinary MeP levels could be essential for the effective control of CKD. In summary, our research highlights the significant predictive potential of XEs for CKD, especially MeP, MCNP, and TCS.

Survey and perspective on verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification of digital twins for precision medicine

Digital twins in precision medicine provide tailored health recommendations by simulating patient-specific trajectories and interventions. We examine the critical role of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) for digital twins in ensuring safety and efficacy, with examples in cardiology and oncology. We highlight challenges and opportunities for developing personalized trial methodologies, validation metrics, and standardizing VVUQ processes. VVUQ frameworks are essential for integrating digital twins into clinical practice.

A Comparative Analysis of XGBoost and Neural Network Models for Predicting Some Tomato Fruit Quality Traits from Environmental and Meteorological Data

The tomato as a raw material for processing is globally important and is pivotal in dietary and agronomic research due to its nutritional, economic, and health significance. This study explored the potential of machine learning (ML) for predicting tomato quality, utilizing data from 48 cultivars and 28 locations in Hungary over 5 seasons. It focused on °Brix, lycopene content, and colour (a/b ratio) using extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The results revealed that XGBoost consistently outperformed ANN, achieving high accuracy in predicting °Brix (R² = 0.98, RMSE = 0.07) and lycopene content (R² = 0.87, RMSE = 0.61), and excelling in colour prediction (a/b ratio) with a R² of 0.93 and RMSE of 0.03. ANN lagged behind particularly in colour prediction, showing a negative R² value of -0.35. Shapley additive explanation's (SHAP) summary plot analysis indicated that both models are effective in predicting °Brix and lycopene content in tomatoes, highlighting different aspects of the data. SHAP analysis highlighted the models' efficiency (especially in °Brix and lycopene predictions) and underscored the significant influence of cultivar choice and environmental factors like climate and soil. These findings emphasize the importance of selecting and fine-tuning the appropriate ML model for enhancing precision agriculture, underlining XGBoost's superiority in handling complex agronomic data for quality assessment.