Imaging-based biomarkers of cognitive performance in older adults constructed via high-dimensional pattern regression applied to MRI and PET

Multimodal tract-based MRI metrics outperform whole brain markers in determining cognitive impact of small vessel disease-related brain injury

In cerebral small vessel disease (cSVD), whole brain MRI markers of cSVD-related brain injury explain limited variance to support individualized prediction. Here, we investigate whether considering abnormalities in brain tracts by integrating multimodal metrics from diffusion MRI (dMRI) and structural MRI (sMRI), can better capture cognitive performance in cSVD patients than established approaches based on whole brain markers. We selected 102 patients (73.7 ± 10.2 years old, 59 males) with MRI-visible SVD lesions and both sMRI and dMRI. Conventional linear models using demographics and established whole brain markers were used as benchmark of predicting individual cognitive scores. Multi-modal metrics of 73 major brain tracts were derived from dMRI and sMRI, and used together with established markers as input of a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) to predict individual cognitive scores. A feature selection strategy was implemented to reduce the risk of overfitting. Prediction was performed with leave-one-out cross-validation and evaluated with the R2 of the correlation between measured and predicted cognitive scores. Linear models predicted memory and processing speed with R2 = 0.26 and R2 = 0.38, respectively. With ANN, feature selection resulted in 13 tract-specific metrics and 5 whole brain markers for predicting processing speed, and 28 tract-specific metrics and 4 whole brain markers for predicting memory. Leave-one-out ANN prediction with the selected features achieved R2 = 0.49 and R2 = 0.40 for processing speed and memory, respectively. Our results show proof-of-concept that combining tract-specific multimodal MRI metrics can improve the prediction of cognitive performance in cSVD by leveraging tract-specific multi-modal metrics.

Linking interindividual variability in brain structure to behaviour

What are the brain structural correlates of interindividual differences in behaviour? More than a decade ago, advances in structural MRI opened promising new avenues to address this question. The initial wave of research then progressively led to substantial conceptual and methodological shifts, and a replication crisis unveiled the limitations of traditional approaches, which involved searching for associations between local measurements of neuroanatomy and behavioural variables in small samples of healthy individuals. Given these methodological issues and growing scepticism regarding the idea of one-to-one mapping of psychological constructs to brain regions, new perspectives emerged. These not only embrace the multivariate nature of brain structure-behaviour relationships and promote generalizability but also embrace the representation of the relationships between brain structure and behavioural data by latent dimensions of interindividual variability. Here, we examine the past and present of the study of brain structure-behaviour associations in healthy populations and address current challenges and open questions for future investigations.

A robust brain signature region approach for episodic memory performance in older adults

The brain signature concept aims to characterize brain regions most strongly associated with an outcome of interest. Brain signatures derive their power from data-driven searches that select features based solely on performance metrics of prediction or classification. This approach has important potential to delineate biologically relevant brain substrates for prediction or classification of future trajectories. Recent work has used exploratory voxel-wise or atlas-based searches, with some using machine learning techniques to define salient features. These have shown undoubted usefulness, but two issues remain. The preponderance of recent work has been aimed at categorical rather than continuous outcomes, and it is rare for non-atlas reliant voxel-based signatures to be reported that would be useful for modelling and hypothesis testing. We describe a cross-validated signature region model for structural brain components associated with baseline and longitudinal episodic memory across cognitively heterogeneous populations including normal, mild impairment and dementia. We used three non-overlapping cohorts of older participants: from the UC Davis Aging and Diversity cohort (n = 255; mean age 75.3 ± 7.1 years; 128 cognitively normal, 97 mild cognitive impairment, 30 demented and seven unclassified); from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) 1 (n = 379; mean age 75.1 ± 7.2; 82 cognitively normal, 176 mild cognitive impairment, 121 Alzheimer's dementia); and from ADNI2/GO (n = 680; mean age 72.5 ± 7.1; 220 cognitively normal, 381 mild cognitive impairment and 79 Alzheimer's dementia). We used voxel-wise regression analysis, correcting for multiple comparisons, to generate an array of regional masks corresponding to different association strength levels of cortical grey matter with baseline memory and brain atrophy with memory change. Cognitive measures were episodic memory using Spanish and English Neuropsychological Assessment Scales instruments for UC Davis and ADNI-Mem for ADNI 1 and ADNI2/GO. Performance metric was the adjusted R2 coefficient of determination of each model explaining outcomes in two cohorts other than where it was computed. We compared within-cohort performances of signature models against each other and against other recent signature models of episodic memory. Findings were: (i) two independently generated signature region of interest models performed similarly in a third separate cohort; (ii) a signature region of interest generated in one imaging cohort replicated its performance level when explaining cognitive outcomes in each of other, separate cohorts; and (iii) this approach better explained baseline and longitudinal memory than other recent theory-driven and data-driven models. This suggests our approach can generate signatures that may be easily and robustly applied for modelling and hypothesis testing in mixed cognition cohorts.

Age differences in predicting working memory performance from network-based functional connectivity

Deterioration in working memory capacity (WMC) has been associated with normal aging, but it remains unknown how age affects the relationship between WMC and connectivity within functional brain networks. We therefore examined the predictability of WMC from fMRI-based resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) within eight meta-analytically defined functional brain networks and the connectome in young and old adults using relevance vector machine in a robust cross-validation scheme. Particular brain networks have been associated with mental functions linked to WMC to a varying degree and are associated with age-related differences in performance. Comparing prediction performance between the young and old sample revealed age-specific effects: In young adults, we found a general unpredictability of WMC from RSFC in networks subserving WM, cognitive action control, vigilant attention, theory-of-mind cognition, and semantic memory, whereas in older adults each network significantly predicted WMC. Moreover, both WM-related and WM-unrelated networks were differently predictive in older adults with low versus high WMC. These results indicate that the within-network functional coupling during task-free states is specifically related to individual task performance in advanced age, suggesting neural-level reorganization. In particular, our findings support the notion of a decreased segregation of functional brain networks, deterioration of network integrity within different networks and/or compensation by reorganization as factors driving associations between individual WMC and within-network RSFC in older adults. Thus, using multivariate pattern regression provided novel insights into age-related brain reorganization by linking cognitive capacity to brain network integrity.

Quantifying performance of machine learning methods for neuroimaging data

Machine learning is increasingly being applied to neuroimaging data. However, most machine learning algorithms have not been designed to accommodate neuroimaging data, which typically has many more data points than subjects, in addition to multicollinearity and low signal-to-noise. Consequently, the relative efficacy of different machine learning regression algorithms for different types of neuroimaging data are not known. Here, we sought to quantify the performance of a variety of machine learning algorithms for use with neuroimaging data with various sample sizes, feature set sizes, and predictor effect sizes. The contribution of additional machine learning techniques - embedded feature selection and bootstrap aggregation (bagging) - to model performance was also quantified. Five machine learning regression methods - Gaussian Process Regression, Multiple Kernel Learning, Kernel Ridge Regression, the Elastic Net and Random Forest, were examined with both real and simulated MRI data, and in comparison to standard multiple regression. The different machine learning regression algorithms produced varying results, which depended on sample size, feature set size, and predictor effect size. When the effect size was large, the Elastic Net, Kernel Ridge Regression and Gaussian Process Regression performed well at most sample sizes and feature set sizes. However, when the effect size was small, only the Elastic Net made accurate predictions, but this was limited to analyses with sample sizes greater than 400. Random Forest also produced a moderate performance for small effect sizes, but could do so across all sample sizes. Machine learning techniques also improved prediction accuracy for multiple regression. These data provide empirical evidence for the differential performance of various machines on neuroimaging data, which are dependent on number of sample size, features and effect size.

An efficient algorithm for estimating brain covariance networks

Often derived from partial correlations or many pairwise analyses, covariance networks represent the inter-relationships among regions and can reveal important topological structures in brain measures from healthy and pathological subjects. However both approaches are not consistent network estimators and are sensitive to the value of the tuning parameters. Here, we propose a consistent covariance network estimator by maximising the network likelihood (MNL) which is robust to the tuning parameter. We validate the consistency of our algorithm theoretically and via a simulation study, and contrast these results against two well-known approaches: the graphical LASSO (gLASSO) and Pearson pairwise correlations (PPC) over a range of tuning parameters. The MNL algorithm had a specificity equal to and greater than 0.94 for all sample sizes in the simulation study, and the sensitivity was shown to increase as the sample size increased. The gLASSO and PPC demonstrated a specificity-sensitivity trade-off over a range of values of tuning parameters highlighting the discrepancy in the results for misspecified values. Application of the MNL algorithm to the case study data showed a loss of connections between healthy and impaired groups, and improved ability to identify between lobe connectivity in contrast to gLASSO networks. In this work, we propose the MNL algorithm as an effective approach to find covariance brain networks, which can inform the organisational features in brain-wide analyses, particularly for large sample sizes.

Neuromarkers for Mental Disorders: Harnessing Population Neuroscience

Despite abundant research into the neurobiology of mental disorders, to date neurobiological insights have had very little impact on psychiatric diagnosis or treatment. In this review, we contend that the search for neuroimaging biomarkers-neuromarkers-of mental disorders is a highly promising avenue toward improved psychiatric healthcare. However, many of the traditional tools used for psychiatric neuroimaging are inadequate for the identification of neuromarkers. Specifically, we highlight the need for larger samples and for multivariate analysis. Approaches such as machine learning are likely to be beneficial for interrogating high-dimensional neuroimaging data. We suggest that broad, population-based study designs will be important for developing neuromarkers of mental disorders, and will facilitate a move away from a phenomenological definition of mental disorder categories and toward psychiatric nosology based on biological evidence. We provide an outline of how the development of neuromarkers should occur, emphasizing the need for tests of external and construct validity, and for collaborative research efforts. Finally, we highlight some concerns regarding the development, and use of, neuromarkers in psychiatric healthcare.

Neural correlates of malingering in mild traumatic brain injury: A positron emission tomography study

The detection of malingering in cognitive performance is a challenge in clinical and legal environments. Neuroimaging may provide an objective method to determine the source of failure on tests of symptom validity. Participants comprised 45 combat veterans, 31 with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), not seeking medical or legal compensation, who completed the Tombaugh Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM) and a positron emission tomography (PET) scan. Based on TOMM performance (i.e., less than 45 of 50 total correct, suggesting suboptimal effort or malingering), subjects were separated into poor TOMM score (PT; n=10) and good TOMM score (GT; n=35) groups. Voxel-based multiple regression analysis with Group (GT/PT) predicting uptake of fluorodeoxyglucose revealed decreased brain metabolism in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex of poor performers. The current findings may suggest that poor TOMM performance in those with combat trauma and mTBI may be related to ventromedial prefrontal cortical dysfunction. These findings have important implications for the disentanglement of feigned versus actual memory impairment, where the latter may be secondary to neural mechanisms not consistent with forgetting or deception.