Modelling the progression of bird migration with conditional autoregressive models applied to ringing data

Modelling the timing of migration of a partial migrant bird using ringing and observation data: a case study with the Song Thrush in Italy

BACKGROUND

The study of the timing of migration is fundamental to the understanding of the ecology of many bird species and their response to climate change, and it has important conservation and management implications e.g., for assessing the hunting seasons according to the EU Directive 2009/147/EC (Birds Directive).

METHODS

We developed a new method for the analysis of ringing data (both first capture and re-encounters) and citizen science observations, to assess the timing of pre- and post-nuptial migration of birds. This method was tested on the Song Thrush Turdus philomelos, using i) the Bird Ringing Database hosted by the ISPRA Italian Ringing Centre from the whole Italian peninsula, the three closest large islands (Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica), and Canton Ticino (Switzerland) and ii) the eBird data for the same study area.

RESULTS

The results from both datasets consistently showed that pre-nuptial migration starts during the first 10-day period of January (Jan 1) in some central and southern areas of the Italian peninsula, in central Sicily, southern Sardinia, and Corsica. The onset of migration occurs on Jan 2 in the rest of central and southern Italy, Sicily and Sardinia, and western Liguria, while it starts later in the north-eastern Alps, up to Mar 3. The end of post-nuptial migration is more synchronous, occurring on Nov 1 across most of Italy, slightly earlier (Oct 3) in northern Italy and later (Nov 2) in Sicily. The uncertainty of the estimated dates was < 2 days in most cases.

CONCLUSION

This method represents a novel and valuable tool for the analyses of the timing of migration using ringing and citizen science data and provides an important contribution to the Key Concepts Document of the EU Birds Directive, where migration timings are considered and used to define the hunting period of birds.

Case of Human Infestation with Dermanyssus gallinae (Poultry Red Mite) from Swallows (Hirundinidae)

Dermanyssus gallinae (the poultry red mite, PRM) is an important ectoparasite in the laying hen industry. PRM can also infest humans, causing gamasoidosis, which is manifested as skin lesions characterized by rash and itching. Recently, there has been an increase in the reported number of human infestation cases with D. gallinae, mostly associated with the proliferation of pigeons in cities where they build their nests. The human form of the disease has not been linked to swallows (Hirundinidae) before. In this report, we describe an incident of human gamasoidosis linked to a nest of swallows built on the window ledge of an apartment in the island of Kefalonia, Greece. Mites were identified as D. gallinae using morphological keys and amplifying the Cytochrome C oxidase subunit I (COI) gene by PCR. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis and median-joining network supported the identification of three PRM haplogroups and the haplotype isolated from swallows was identical to three PRM sequences isolated from hens in Portugal. The patient was treated with topical corticosteroids, while the house was sprayed with deltamethrin. After one week, the mites disappeared and clinical symptoms subsided. The current study is the first report of human gamasoidosis from PRM found in swallows’ nest.

Barn swallows long-distance migration occurs between significantly temperature-correlated areas

Organisms are routinely confronted with crucial decisions on the best time and place to perform fundamental activities. However, unpredictable spatio-temporal variation in ecological factors makes life-history optimization difficult particularly for long-distance migrants, which are putatively blind of conditions thousands of kilometers and weeks ahead along their journey. Here we challenge, on a hierarchy of geographical scales, the common wisdom that migratory birds have no clue to ecological conditions at destination. Using ringing data of the inter-continental migrating barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), we show that temperatures at breeding sites and at times of arrival from migration are more correlated with those at actual wintering sites and at times of departure than with those at other sites and at periods before/after departure. Hence, individual swallows have clues to adjust timing of spring migration based on expected conditions at destination, and they apparently choose wintering sites to increase availability of such information.

A periodic Markov model to formalize animal migration on a network

Regular, long-distance migrations of thousands of animal species have consequences for the ecosystems that they visit, modifying trophic interactions and transporting many non-pathogenic and pathogenic organisms. The spatial structure and dynamic properties of animal migrations and population flyways largely determine those trophic and transport effects, but are yet poorly studied. As a basis, we propose a periodic Markov model on the spatial migration network of breeding, stopover and wintering sites to formally describe the process of animal migration on the population level. From seasonally changing transition rates we derived stable, seasonal densities of animals at the network nodes. We parametrized the model with high-quality GPS and satellite telemetry tracks of white storks (Ciconia ciconia) and greater white-fronted geese (Anser a. albifrons). Topological and network flow properties of the two derived networks conform to migration properties like seasonally changing connectivity and shared, directed movement. Thus, the model realistically describes the migration movement of complete populations and can become an important tool to study the effects of climate and habitat change and pathogen spread on migratory animals. Furthermore, the property of periodically changing transition rates makes it a new type of complex model and we need to understand its dynamic properties.

Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random Forests to model probabilities of occurrence and compared the time periods 1981-2010 (hindcast) and 2041-2070 (forecast) in "model space." Projected changes in shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species-specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long-distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from -0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios.