Mediating Water Temperature Increases Due to Livestock and Global Change in High Elevation Meadow Streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

Riparian vegetation shade restoration and loss effects on recent and future stream temperatures

River temperatures are expected to increase this century harming species requiring cold-water habitat unless restoration activities protect or improve habitat availability. Local shading by riparian vegetation can cool water temperatures, but uncertainty exists over the scaling of this local effect to larger spatial extents. We evaluate this issue using a regional spatial stream network temperature model with covariates representing shade effects to predict mean August stream temperatures across 78,195 km of tributaries flowing into the Columbia River in the northwestern US. We evaluate nine scenarios predicting stream temperatures for three riparian shade conditions (current, restored, and no riparian vegetation) within three different climate periods (2000s, 2040s, and 2080s). Results suggest riparian shade restoration (2000s climate) could decrease mean August stream temperatures by 0.62°C across the study network. Under the same restored shade conditions, temperature predictions for tributaries at their confluence with the Columbia River range from 0.02-2.08°C cooler than under current shade conditions. The climate warming effect predicted for the 2040s and 2080s, however, is greater than the cooling effect from restoring riparian shade. Streams less than 10m bankfull width cooled more frequently with riparian shade restoration. In Oregon, the proportion of fish habitat for salmon and trout rearing and migration that meet temperature numeric water quality criteria could be increased by 20% under restored shade conditions although net habitat declines may still occur in the future. We conclude riparian vegetation restoration could partially mitigate future warming and help maintain cold-water habitats that function as thermal refuges if implemented strategically.

Do metapopulations and management matter for relict headwater bull trout populations in a warming climate?

Mountain headwater streams have emerged as important climate refuges for native cold-water species due to their slow climate velocities and extreme physical conditions that inhibit non-native invasions. Species persisting in refuges often do so as fragmented, relict populations from broader historical distributions that are subject to ongoing habitat reductions and increasing isolation as climate change progresses. Key for conservation planning is determining where remaining populations will persist and how habitat restoration strategies can improve biological resilience to enhance the long-term prospects for species of concern. Studying bull trout, a headwater species in the northwestern USA, we developed habitat occupancy models using a data set of population occurrence in 991 natal habitat patches with a suite of novel geospatial covariates derived from high-resolution hydroclimatic scenarios and other sources representing watershed and instream habitat conditions, patch geometry, disturbance, and biological interactions. The best model correctly predicted bull trout occupancy status in 82.6% of the patches and included effects for: patch size estimated as habitat volume, extent of within-patch reaches <9°C mean August temperature, distance to nearest occupied patch, road density, invasive brook trout prevalence, patch slope, and frequency of high winter flows. The model was used to assess 16 scenarios of bull trout occurrence within the study streams that represented a range of restoration strategies under three climatic conditions (baseline, moderate change, and extreme change). Results suggested that regional improvements in bull trout status were difficult to achieve in realistic restoration strategies due to the pervasive nature of climate change and the limited extent of restoration actions given their high costs. However, occurrence probabilities in a subset of patches were highly responsive to restoration actions, suggesting that targeted investments to improve the resilience of some populations may be contextually beneficial. A possible strategy, therefore, is focusing effort on responsive populations near more robust population strongholds, thereby contributing to local enclaves where dispersal among populations further enhances resilience. Equally important, strongholds constituted a small numerical percentage of patches (5%-21%), yet encompassed the large majority of occupied habitat by volume (72%-89%) and their protection could have significant conservation benefits for bull trout.

Big biology meets microclimatology: defining thermal niches of ectotherms at landscape scales for conservation planning

Temperature profoundly affects ecology, a fact ever more evident as the ability to measure thermal environments increases and global changes alter these environments. The spatial structure of thermalscapes is especially relevant to the distribution and abundance of ectothermic organisms, but the ability to describe biothermal relationships at extents and grains relevant to conservation planning has been limited by small or sparse data sets. Here, we combine a large occurrence database of >23 000 aquatic species surveys with stream microclimate scenarios supported by an equally large temperature database for a 149 000-km mountain stream network to describe thermal relationships for 14 fish and amphibian species. Species occurrence probabilities peaked across a wide range of temperatures (7.0-18.8°C) but distinct warm- or cold-edge distribution boundaries were apparent for all species and represented environments where populations may be most sensitive to thermal changes. Warm-edge boundary temperatures for a native species of conservation concern were used with geospatial data sets and a habitat occupancy model to highlight subsets of the network where conservation measures could benefit local populations by maintaining cool temperatures. Linking that strategic approach to local estimates of habitat impairment remains a key challenge but is also an opportunity to build relationships and develop synergies between the research, management, and regulatory communities. As with any data mining or species distribution modeling exercise, care is required in analysis and interpretation of results, but the use of large biological data sets with accurate microclimate scenarios can provide valuable information about the thermal ecology of many ectotherms and a spatially explicit way of guiding conservation investments.