Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Survival Outcomes in Early Mucinous Breast Cancer

Clinicopathological characteristics of mucinous breast cancer: a retrospective analysis of a 6-years study from national cancer center in Vietnam

PURPOSE

To evaluate clinicopathological features in women with mucinous breast cancer (MBC), distinguishing between pure (PMC) and mixed (MMC) subtype.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of all 358 women with MBC treated at Vietnam National Cancer hospital from June 2015 to December 2020. PMC was defined by ≥ 90% mucinous components.

RESULTS

We identified 358 women with MBC (245 PMC and 113 MMC) representing 2.7% of all 13,254 BC patients. The proportions of stage I, II, III and IV were 34.9%, 50.8%, 10.4% and 3.9% respectively. The rate of HER2 overexpression was 12%, and only 1.4% of patients was treated with anti-HER2. 193 patients (53.9%) had chemotherapy, including 55 patients (15.4%) treated in the neoadjuvant setting. Only 3 patients (5.5%) achieved pCR. PMC patients were older (54.4 ± 13.3 vs 51.1 ± 13.1 years), had lower Ki67 expression, lower incidence of nodal metastasis (N +) (p values < 0.05). At a median follow-up of 58 months, the 5-year overall survival rate of non-metastatic patients was 86.6%. Multivariate analysis showed N + to be the most significant prognostic factor (HR = 3.3; 95%CI 1.5-7.1), followed by T-stage (HR = 2.9; 95%CI 1.4-6.3), HER2 + (HR = 2.5; 95%CI 1.2-5.3) and MMC subtype (HR = 1.9; 95%CI 1.0-3.9).

CONCLUSION

Poor prognostic factors of MBC include high T-stage, N-positivity, HER2 overexpression and MMC subtype. Given the low response rate to neoadjuvant CT, upfront surgery is appropriate for MBC patients.

Race as a prognostic factor of breast mucinous carcinoma

PURPOSE

The rarity of breast mucinous carcinoma (BMC) makes it challenging to study the prognosis of this disease across diverse racial populations. This study aimed to leverage epidemiological data on immigrant populations to elucidate the prognostic differences in BMC patients from various racial/ethnic backgrounds. The goal was to help formulate more personalized clinical practice guidelines for the management of this rare malignancy.

METHODS

The study included 208 BMC patients from China and 10,322 BMC patients from the SEER database. Clinicopathological data, treatment information, and survival outcomes were compared across different racial/ethnic groups using statistical analyses.

RESULTS

Asian American BMC patients were younger at diagnosis and had more favorable tumor grade and stage compared to other racial groups. After adjusting for clinicopathological factors and treatments, Asian American BMC patients exhibited significantly better overall survival (OS) than black (HR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.05-2.22, P = 0.027) and white patients (HR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.03-1.94, P < 0.001). Specifically, non-Chinese American patients had a worse OS compared to Chinese patients (adjusted HR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.15-5.83, P = 0.022). Chemotherapy significantly improved OS only in black BMC patients (adjusted HR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.27-0.98, p = 0.045), but not in other racial/ethnic groups.

CONCLUSION

Race is an independent prognostic factor for BMC. Compared with Chinese patients, black and white American patients have a worse prognosis in terms of OS. Treatment guidelines for BMC patients should be formulated with considerations of race factors. For patients with BMC originating from China, a more conservative treatment approach may be warranted.

Nomogram for predicting outcomes in elderly women with mucinous breast cancer: A retrospective study combined with external validation in southwest China

OBJECTIVE

Mucinous breast cancer (MBC) is a kind of breast cancer (BC), which is rare in clinic, mainly for women, because of the low incidence rate, so there is no unified standard treatment protocol. Elderly patients have a poor prognosis due to their combined comorbidities. This study aims to investigate the effect of surgery and chemoradiotherapy on the prognosis of elderly female MBC patients and construct nomograms for predicting the OS and CSS in elderly female MBC patients.

METHODS

Data for female MBC patients over 65 years are obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, patients were divided into two groups: the training set and the validation set. External validation data of the prediction model were provided by Kunming Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine. We used Cox regression modeling, which was used to identify independent risk factors affecting patient prognosis. After avoiding confounding bias according to the multifactorial Cox regression model, we used these screened statistically significant results to construct column-line plots. The performance of the model was tested using the consistency index (c-index), the calibration curve, and the area under the operating characteristic curve of the receiver (AUC). Subsequently, we used decision curve analysis (DCA) to examine the potential clinical value of our nomograms.

RESULTS

A total of 8103 elderly MBC female patients were extracted from the database SEER and were assigned to the training and validation set, randomly. A total of 83 patients from Kunming Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine were used in the external verification set. After multifactorial Cox regression analysis, we found that age, race, T-stage, M-stage, surgical approach, radiotherapy, and tumor size were independent risk factors for OS in elderly MBC patients. Similarly, independent risk factors of CSS included age, marital status, N stage, M stage, surgical approach, chemotherapy, and tumor size. The C-index for the OS training, validation, and external verification set were 0.731 (95%CI 0.715-0.747), 0.738 (95%CI 0.724-0.752), and 0.809 (95%CI 0.731-0.8874). The C-index of the training set, the validation set, and external verification set for CSS were 0.786 (95%CI 0.747-0.825), 0.776 (95%CI 0.737-0.815), and 0.84 (95%CI0.754-0.926), respectively. The AUC, calibration curves and DCA also showed good accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we construct a new nomogram to predict the prognosis of elderly patients with MBC. The nomograms have undergone internal and external validation and have been confirmed to have good clinical applicability. At the same time, we found that for elderly female MBC patients, surgery and radiotherapy significantly benefit their survival, but chemotherapy is not conducive to patient survival.

Five-year survival prognosis of young, middle-aged, and elderly adult female invasive breast cancer patients by clinical and lifestyle characteristics

PURPOSE

Early-onset breast cancer incidence has been increasing globally and in Taiwan. However, previous studies have not comprehensively examined how clinical and lifestyle characteristics influence the 5-year survival of breast cancer diagnosed at different stages of adulthood.

METHODS

We analyzed the Taiwan National Cancer Registry and Cause of Death datasets to understand how clinical factors (including tumor and treatment characteristics) and lifestyle factors (including body mass index, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption) were associated with the 5-year survival of 8471 young, 57,695 middle-aged, and 14,074 elderly female adult invasive breast cancer patients respectively diagnosed at age 20-39, 40-64, and ≥ 65 years between 2002 and 2015, with mortality follow-up to 2020. Poisson regression was used for obtaining the crude and adjusted 5-year survival risk ratios.

RESULTS

Clinical and lifestyle characteristics were distributed differently but had mostly similar direction of association with 5-year survival for the three age groups. Receiving any treatment was associated with better survival, especially for elderly patients. Being underweight at initial cancer treatment was associated with worse survival than having normal weight, especially for elderly patients. Current smokers had worse survival than never smokers for middle-aged and elderly patients. The 5-year breast cancer-specific survival was not significantly higher for those of age 45-49 years than 40-44 years, despite the recommended starting screening age is 45 years in Taiwan.

CONCLUSION

Our findings contribute to the understanding of early-onset and later-onset female breast cancer characteristics and prognosis, which may inform surveillance and treatment strategies to achieve better breast cancer prognosis.

The Establishment and Verification of a Nomogram Model for Predicting the Overall Survival of Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma: An Analysis Based on the SEER Database

(1) Background: This study aimed to establish a nomogram model for predicting the overall survival (OS) of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) patients based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. (2) Methods: Patients with MTC in the SEER database from 2004 to 2015 were included and divided into a modeling group and an internal validation group. We also selected MTC patients from our center from 2007 to 2019 to establish an external validation group. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to screen for significant independent variables and to establish a nomogram model. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves were plotted to evaluate the influence of the predictors. The C-indexes, areas under the curves (AUCs), and calibration curves were plotted to validate the predictive effect of the model. (3) Results: A total of 1981 MTC patients from the SEER database and 85 MTC patients from our center were included. The univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that age, tumor size, N stage, and M stage were significant factors, and a nomogram model was established. The C-index of the modeling group was 0.792, and the AUCs were 0.811, 0.825, and 0.824. The C-index of the internal validation group was 0.793, and the AUCs were 0.847, 0.846, and 0.796. The C-index of the external validation group was 0.871, and the AUCs were 0.911 and 0.827. The calibration curves indicated that the prediction ability was reliable. (4) Conclusions: A nomogram model based on age, tumor size, N stage, and M stage was able to predict the OS of MTC patients.

Nomogram for predicting survival in patients with mucinous breast cancer undergoing chemotherapy and surgery: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of patients with mucinous breast cancer (MuBC) is affected by several factors, but the low incidence of MuBC makes it difficult to conduct extensive and in-depth studies. This study was designed to establish a prognostic model and verify its accuracy in patients with MuBC after chemotherapy and surgery to help develop personalized treatment strategies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with MuBC who underwent chemotherapy and surgery from 2004 to 2015 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The prognostic factors of patients with MuBC were investigated using a Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Based on the identified factors, a nomogram was constructed to forecast the overall survival (OS) of patients at 3, 5, and 10 years. Internal (from SEER) and external (from Yunnan Cancer Center, YNCC) verification queues were used to verify the nomogram and demonstrate the predictive capacity of this model.

RESULTS

The study comprised 1668 MuBC patients from the SEER database and 107 from the YNCC. The nomogram included four characteristics: age, anatomical stage, surgical method, and radiotherapy. The concordance indices in the training, internal verification, and external verification queues were 0.680, 0.768, and 0.864, respectively. The calibration curves for the nomogram showed excellent agreement between the predictions and observations. This nomogram has good clinical application value according to the decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognosis of patients with MuBC who have undergone chemotherapy and surgery can be forecasted using this nomogram, which would be beneficial to help create individualized treatment plans for the affected patients.

Intraductal papillary carcinoma of breast with invasion: A nomogram and survival from the analysis of the SEER database

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary carcinoma (IPC) with invasion is a rare type of breast cancer. There have been few studies on its prognosis, and a nomogram that predicts the prognosis of the disease has not been described to date.

METHODS

Patients who were diagnosed with invasive IPC were screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The screened patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a verification cohort at 7:3. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was performed to analyze the effects of different variables on the risk of death in invasive IPC. A nomogram was constructed to quantify the possibility of death. The concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curves analysis (DCA) were used to verify the proposed model.

RESULTS

We included a total of 803 patients diagnosed with invasive IPC, including 563 patients in the training cohort and 240 patients in the validation cohort. The median follow-up times in the training cohort and validation cohort were 63 months (range, 2-155 months) and 61 months (range, 1-154 months), respectively. For all patients, the probability of death with invasive IPC was 1.4% within 5 years and 5.4% within 10 years. In multivariate analysis, sex, race, tumor size, lymph node status, type of treatment, and chemotherapy were related to the prognosis of invasive IPC. We constructed a nomogram to predict the possibility of death in patients with invasive IPC.

CONCLUSION

Patients with invasive IPC had a high survival rate. The proven nomogram was helpful to both patients and clinical decision makers.

Effect of postoperative radiotherapy in women with localized pure mucinous breast cancer after lumpectomy: a population-based study

Purpose

Pure mucinous breast cancer is a rare subtype of invasive breast cancer with favorable prognosis, in which the effect of postoperative radiotherapy remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of postoperative radiotherapy in women with localized pure mucinous breast cancer after lumpectomy.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study to compare the effectiveness of postoperative radiotherapy (RT) and omitting postoperative radiotherapy (non-RT) in patients with first primary T1-2N0M0 (T ≤ 3 cm) pure mucinous breast cancer who underwent lumpectomy between 1998 and 2015 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) was compared between RT and non-RT groups using Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression model. Propensity score matching (PSM) was carried out to balance cohort baselines. In addition, an exploratory analysis was performed to verify the effectiveness of RT in subgroup patients.

Results

Of 7832 eligible patients, 5352 (68.3%) underwent lumpectomy with postoperative RT, 2480 (31.7%) received lumpectomy without postoperative RT. The median follow-up duration was 92 months. The median age was 66 years in the RT group and 76 years in the non-RT group.The 15-year BCSS was 94.39% (95% CI, 93.08% to 95.35%) in the RT group versus 91.45%(95% CI, 88.93% to 93.42%) in the non-RT group (P < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratio for BCSS was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.49 to 0.83; P = 0.001) for RT group versus non-RT group. After propensity score matching, similar results were yielded. Adjuvant RT reduced the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 7.92% to 6.15% (P = 0.039). The adjusted hazard ratio for BCSS were 0.66 (95%CI, 0.47 to 0.92; P = 0.014) for RT group versus non-RT group. The benefit of RT was well consistent across subgroup patients.

Conclusion

Among women with T1-2N0M0 (tumor size ≤ 3 cm) pure mucinous breast cancer, the addition of RT after lumpectomy was significantly associated with a reduced incidence of breast cancer death compared with non-RT, and the magnitude of benefit may be modest. This suggests that postoperative RT is recommended in the treatment of localized pure mucinous breast cancer.

Anesthesia With Propofol Sedation Reduces Locoregional Recurrence in Patients With Breast Cancer Receiving Total Mastectomy Compared With Non-Propofol Anesthesia

Purpose

We examined locoregional recurrence (LRR) in patients with breast invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) receiving total mastectomy (TM) under propofol-based paravertebral block-regional anesthesia (PB-RA) versus sevoflurane-based inhalational general anesthesia (INHA-GA) without propofol. All-cause death and distant metastasis were secondary endpoints.

Patients and Methods

Patients with breast IDC receiving TM were recruited through propensity score matching and categorized into INHA-GA with sevoflurane and PB-RA with propofol groups. Cox regression analysis was performed to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, the adjusted HR (aHR; 95% CI) of LRR for the PB-RA with propofol group was 0.52 (0.28–0.96) compared with the INHA-GA with sevoflurane group. The aHRs of LRR for differentiation grade II, grade III, the American Joint Committee on Cancer clinical stage II, stage III, pathological tumor (pT) stage 2, pT stage 3–4, pathological nodal (pN) stage 1, and pN stage 2–3 were 1.16 (1.04–2.08), 1.28 (1.07–2.12), 3.71 (1.82–7.59), 4.67 (1.65–13.18), 1.09 (1.02–1.21), 1.17 (1.03–2.16), 1.10 (1.03–1.33), and 1.22 (1.06–2.41), respectively, compared with differentiation grade I, clinical stage I, pT1, and pN0. The aHR of LRR for adjuvant RT was 0.88 (0.64–0.94) compared with that for no adjuvant RT.

Conclusion

PB-RA with propofol might be beneficial for reducing LRR in women with breast IDC receiving TM compared with INHA-GA without propofol.

Overall Survival in Patients with Mucinous Carcinoma of Breast: A Population-Based Study

Purpose

Mucinous carcinoma of the breast (MCB) is a rare malignant tumour. Therefore, it is urgent to establish a survival prediction model for MCB patients.

Methods

Clinicopathological and follow-up data of MCB patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database. The significant factors were screened out and generated Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves for each prognostic factor. Additionally, these factors were then utilized to build a nomogram for predicting 3-, 4-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) of MCB patients. The nomogram was evaluated using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Moreover, a total of 4326 MCB patients were retrieved. Age, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, surgery, radiotherapy and bone metastasis were identified as independently prognosis factors for OS. The corresponding areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) of the nomogram at 3, 4 and 5 years in the training and validation set were 0.770, 0.788, 0.805, 0.778, 0.797, and 0.802, respectively. The calibration curves and DCA revealed that the prediction model had an excellent performance. Finally, the risk stratification system confirmed that the powerful role of the nomogram in distinguishing results and risk stratification.

Conclusion

Briefly, the nomogram incorporating various clinicopathological indicators was established for MCB patients and may facilitate clinical decision-making.

Prognostic nomogram for patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel or FOLFIRINOX: A post-hoc analysis of a multicenter retrospective study in Japan (NAPOLEON study)

Background

No reliable nomogram has been developed until date for predicting the survival in patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer undergoing treatment with gemcitabine plus nab–paclitaxel (GnP) or FOLFIRINOX.

Methods

This analysis was conducted using clinical data of Japanese patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer undergoing GnP or FOLFIRINOX treatment obtained from a multicenter study (NAPOLEON study). A Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent prognostic factors. A nomogram to predict 6–, 12–, and 18–month survival probabilities was generated, validated by using the concordance index (C–index), and calibrated by the bootstrapping method. And then, we attempted risk stratification for survival by classifying the patients according to the sum of the scores on the nomogram (total nomogram points).

Results

A total of 318 patients were enrolled. A prognostic nomogram was generated using data on the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, liver metastasis, serum LDH, serum CRP, and serum CA19–9. The C–indexes of the nomogram were 0.77, 0.72 and 0.70 for 6–, 12–, and 18–month survival, respectively. The calibration plot showed optimal agreement at all points. Risk stratification based on tertiles of the total nomogram points yielded clear separations of the survival curves. The median survival times in the low–, moderate–, and high–risk groups were 15.8, 12.8 and 7.8 months (P<0.05), respectively.

Conclusions

Our nomogram might be a convenient and inexpensive tool to accurately predict survival in Japanese patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer undergoing treatment with GnP or FOLFIRINOX, and will help clinicians in selecting appropriate therapeutic strategies for individualized management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-09139-y.

Long-term oncologic outcomes of breast conserving surgery with propofol-based total intravenous anesthesia or volatile inhalational general anesthesia without propofol: a propensity score-matched, population-based cohort study

To estimate oncologic outcomes (overall survival [OS], locoregional recurrence [LRR], and distant metastasis [DM]) in patients with breast intraductal carcinoma (IDC) receiving breast conserving surgery (BCS) under propofol-based total intravenous anesthesia (TIVA) or volatile inhalational (INHA) general anesthesia (GA) without propofol. Patients with breast IDC receiving BCS were recruited through propensity score matching and categorized by anesthesia techniques into propofol-based TIVA-GA and non-propofol-based INHA-GA groups, respectively. Cox regression analysis was performed to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR; 95% CI) of all-cause mortality for TIVA-GA with propofol compared with INHA-GA without propofol was 0.94 (0.83-1.31). The aHR (95% CI) of LRR for TIVA-GA with propofol group compared with INHA-GA without propofol was 0.77 (0.58-0.87). The aHR (95% CI) of DM for TIVA-GA with propofol compared with INHA-GA without propofol was 0.91 (0.82-1.24). Propofol-based TIVA-GA might be beneficial for reducing LRR in women with breast IDC receiving BCS compared with non-propofol-based INHA-GA.

Paravertebral block in regional anesthesia with propofol sedation reduces locoregional recurrence in patients with breast cancer receiving breast conservative surgery compared with volatile inhalational without propofol in general anesthesia

PURPOSE

We examined locoregional recurrence (LRR) in patients with breast invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) receiving breast conservative surgery (BCS) under propofol-based paravertebral block-regional anesthesia (PB-RA) versus sevoflurane-based inhalational general anesthesia (INHA-GA) without propofol. All-cause death and distant metastasis were secondary endpoints.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with breast IDC receiving BCS were recruited through propensity score matching and categorized into INHA-GA with sevoflurane and PB-RA with propofol groups. Cox regression analysis was performed to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, the adjusted HR (aHR; 95% CI) of LRR for the PB-RA with propofol group was 0.67 (0.46-0.99) compared with the INHA-GA with sevoflurane group. The aHRs of LRR for differentiation grade II, grade III, the American Joint Committee on Cancer clinical stage II, stage III, pathological tumor (pT) stage 2, pT stage 3-4, pathological nodal (pN) stage 2-3, and Her-2 positivity were 1.87 (1.03-3.42), 2.31 (1.20-4.44), 1.67 (1.09-2.56), 2.43 (1.18-4.97), 1.17 (1.03-1.19), 1.28 (1.13-2.24), 1.20 (1.05-2.22), and 1.59 (1.01-2.51), respectively, compared with those for differentiation grade I, clinical stage I, pT1, pN0, and HER-2 negativity. The aHR of LRR for adjuvant radiotherapy was 0.60 (0.38-0.97) compared with that for no adjuvant radiotherapy.

CONCLUSION

PB-RA with propofol might be beneficial for reducing LRR in women with breast IDC receiving BCS compared with INHA-GA without propofol.

Identifying Clinicopathological Risk Factors of the Regional Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients with T1-2 Mucinous Breast Cancer: A Population-Based Study

Background

Pure mucinous breast cancer (PMBC) has a better prognosis than other types of invasive breast cancer. However, regional lymph node metastasis (LNM) might reverse this outcome. We aim to determine the independent predictive factors for regional LNM and further develop a nomogram model for clinical practice.

Method

Data of PMBC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program between Jan 2010 and Dec 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for LNM in T_1-2 MBC. The nomogram was constructed and further evaluated by an internal validation cohort. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves were performed to evaluate the accuracy of this model.

Result

Five variables, including age, race, tumor size, grade, and breast subtype, were identified to be significantly associated with regional LNM in female patients with T_1-2 PMBC. A nomogram was successfully established with a favorable concordance index (C-index) of 0.780, supported by an internal validation cohort with a C-index of 0.767.

Conclusion

A nomogram for predicting regional LNM in female patients with T_1-2 PMBC was successfully established and validated via an internal cohort. This visualized model would assist surgeons to make appropriate clinical decisions in the management of primary PMBC, especially in terms of whether axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) is warranted.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival of T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients with lymph node metastasis

PURPOSE

To develop a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients with positive lymph node.

METHODS

T1 ESCC patients with lymph node metastasis diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Final Results (SEER) database. The entire cohort was randomly divided in the ratio of 7:3 into a training group (n=457) and validation group (n=192), respectively. Prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Harrell's concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. The accuracy and clinical net benefit of the nomogram compared with the 7^th AJCC staging system were evaluated using net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The nomogram consisted of eight factors: insurance, T stage, summary stage, primary site, radiation code, chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation sequence with surgery. In the training and validation cohorts, the AUCs exceeded 0.700, and the C-index scores were 0.749 and 0.751, respectively, indicating that the nomogram had good discrimination. The consistency between the survival probability predicted by the nomogram and the actual observed probability was indicated by the calibration curve in the training and validation cohorts. For NRI>0 and IDI>0, the predictive power of the nomogram was more accurate than that of the 7^th AJCC staging system. Furthermore, the DCA curve indicated that the nomogram achieved better clinical utility than the traditional system.

CONCLUSIONS

Unlike the 7^th AJCC staging system, the developed and validated nomogram can help clinical staff to more accurately, personally and comprehensively predict the 1-year and 3-year OS probability of T1 ESCC patients with lymph node metastasis.

A Simple-to-Use Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Children with Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Background

The research analyzed a group of patients to develop a statistical nomogram and a web-based survival rate predictor for the comprehensive estimate of the overall survival (OS) of children with acute myeloid leukemia.

Methods

Between 1999 to 2015, we used the Therapeutically Applicable Research to Generate Effective Treatments (TARGET) database to evaluate and randomly divide 440 children diagnosed with AML into the population of training (n = 309) and validation (n = 131). The analysis of Lasso Cox was used to identify separate predictive variables. We have used essential forecasting considerations to construct a nomogram and a web-based calculator focused on Cox regression analysis. Nomogram validation was tested through discrimination and calibration.

Results

Compared to the multivariate training cohort models, a nomogram integrating gender, age of diagnose, WBC at diagnosis, bone marrow leukemic blast percentage, and chromosomal abnormalities [t(8; 21), inv(16)] were designed for the prediction of OS. We also developed a predictive survival nomogram and a web-based calculator. C-indexes validated internally and checked externally were 0.747 and 0.716. The calibration curves have shown that the nomogram might accurately forecast 3-year and 5-year OS.

Conclusions

A nomogram effectively predicts survival in children with AML. This prognostic model can be used in clinical practice.

Evaluation of efficacy of chemotherapy for mucinous carcinoma: a surveillance, epidemiology, and end results cohort study

Background

In this study, we investigated the impact of chemotherapy on breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) in patients with mucinous carcinoma using the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database.

Methods

A large-scale SEER-based retrospective analysis was conducted; 13,329 patients with mucinous carcinoma from 1994 to 2014 were identified. Clinicopathological characteristics were compared using the chi-square test. BCSS curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The prognostic significance of all demographic and clinicopathological characteristics and treatment patterns were calculated using univariate and multivariate regression analyses.

Results

Mucinous carcinoma was demonstrated to be less aggressive than invasive ductal carcinoma and predicted a better prognosis in the Kaplan-Meier analysis (hazard ratios = 0.336, 95% confidence interval: 0.308-0.368, p < 0.001). Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that chemotherapy did not provide any additional benefit for patients with mucinous carcinoma. Predictors for receiving chemotherapy were younger age, estrogen receptor-negative, progesterone receptor-negative, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive status, higher grade, larger tumor size, lymph node involvement, radiation reception, and mastectomy. Further subgroup analysis verified that regardless of the hormone receptor (HR) and lymph node (LN) status, patients did not benefit from chemotherapy.

Conclusion

Our study showed that patients with HR+/LN- mucinous carcinoma did not benefit from chemotherapy and that chemotherapy could not improve the survival of all subtypes of mucinous carcinoma based on large-scale SEER data. These results support that patients with mucinous carcinoma could be exempt from chemotherapy. Additional research is needed to further evaluate the impact of adjuvant treatments, particularly in patients with favorable histology.

Clinical value of CTLA4 combined with clinicopathological factors in evaluating the prognosis of breast cancer

Background

Clinical prediction of breast cancer prognosis relies on both clinical-pathological features and biological markers. Many studies have revealed that tumor cytotoxic T lymphocyte antigen 4 (CTLA4) expression may present prognostic predicting value in cancers. We intended to explore the prognostic value of significant clinicopathological parameters and CTLA4 for predicting survival of patients with breast cancer.

Methods

A total of 229 breast cancer patients who had radical surgery treatment between Sep 2009 and April 2011 were enrolled in this study. Immunohistochemical staining was performed to evaluate CTLA4 grade and Ki-67 index in breast cancer tissue. Univariate and multivariate logistic analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and ROC curve were used to explore the association between CTLA4 or clinicopathological parameters and disease-free survival (DFS). A nomogram was constructed based on the regression model to predict DFS of patients with breast cancer.

Results

CTLA4 grade (OR 1.730, 95% CI: 1.213-2.468, P=0.002), Ki-67 (OR 1.449, 95% CI: 1.069-1.964, P=0.017) and N stage (lymph node metastasis) (OR 2.268, 95% CI: 1.588-3.303, P=0.000) showed significantly association with DFS of breast cancer patients. All these factors were independent predictors for poor survival, as patients with stage N2-3 tumors, high CTLA4 grade and Ki-67 index showed low survival probability (P<0.01). The conjunction of these factors exhibited good discrimination value (AUC 0.815, 95% CI: 0.749-0.882, P=0.000). Nomogram performed based on CTLA4 grade, Ki-67 index and N stage provided an efficient method to predict DFS of patients with breast cancer.

Conclusions

The high expression of CTLA4 and Ki-67 together with lymph node metastasis in breast cancer are independent risk factors that affect the prognosis of breast cancer patients. They have the potentiality to be utilized conjunctively as predictor in clinical practice.

Special subtypes with favorable prognosis in breast cancer: A registry-based cohort study and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

We aimed to explore whether cribriform and adenoid cystic carcinoma had comparable prognoses to mucinous, tubular and papillary carcinoma, which were long recognized as favorable histologies by NCCN guidelines.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Study (SEER) database (1994-2014) was conducted. The prognostic significance of all clinicopathological factors was calculated using univariate and multivariate analyses. A systematic review based on PubMed and network meta-analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

From the SEER database, the histologic subtypes of breast cancer (tubular, cribriform, adenoid cystic, mucinous, and papillary) were sorted by overall survival (OS) (94.4%, 91.6%, 90.8%, 87.6%, and 84.2%, respectively) and tubular, cribriform, mucinous, papillary, and adenoid cystic carcinoma by breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) (99.4%, 98.4%, 97.7%, 95.2%, and 94.9%, respectively). A network meta-analysis combining 11 studies (886,649 patients) was conducted, which demonstrated consistent outcomes. SEER-based analyses revealed that, among the favorable subtypes, systemic chemotherapy did not improve OS or BCSS in hormone receptor-positive, node-negative patients, validating that these subtypes are generally associated with excellent outcomes, for which systemic chemotherapy may not be warranted.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data are consistent with guidelines suggesting that the mucinous, tubular, and papillary subtypes of breast cancer have favorable histologies. SEER data and meta-analysis supports this favorable category to include adenoid cystic and cribriform carcinoma, whose OS and BCSS outcomes are comparable to the former three. These findings add to the body of data, suggesting that patients with these histologic subtypes confer excellent prognosis, which may guide optimal therapeutic management strategies.

Adjuvant chemotherapy could benefit early-stage ER/PR positive mucinous breast cancer: A SEER-based analysis

Purpose

The aim of this study was to explore the value of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with early-stage ER/PR-positive mucinous carcinoma.

Methods

We identified early-stage ER/PR-positive mucinous carcinoma patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We used propensity-score matching (PSM) analysis to eliminate selection bias and differences in baseline characteristics. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify significant prognostic factors. The primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS), which were evaluated with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Results

After propensity score matching, 805 pairs were selected. Patients with early-stage ER/PR-positive mucinous adenocarcinoma in the chemotherapy group had a better OS, but not BCSS, than those in the nonchemotherapy group after PSM (OS: p < 0.001; BCSS: p = 0.285). After stratifying by tumor size and lymph node status, adjuvant chemotherapy could significantly improve the OS of early-stage ER/PR-positive patients with tumors larger than 3 cm (p = 0.004) if they had negative lymph nodes (LNs). For patients positive LNs, the OS was significantly different between the chemotherapy group and the non-chemotherapy group when the tumors were larger than 1 cm (T = 1–2.9 cm, p = 0.006; T＞3 cm, p = 0.049, respectively).

Conclusion

Adjuvant chemotherapy maybe improves prognosis in patients with negative LNs and tumors larger than 3 cm, or patients with LNs metastasis and tumors larger than 1 cm. We suggest considering clinical characteristics meanwhile when deciding chemotherapy or not. Randomized controlled trials (RCT) are expected to confirm our results in the future.

•

Propensity-score matching was used to narrow selection bias.

•

Chemotherapy benefits patients with negative nodes and tumors larger than 3 cm.

•

Chemotherapy benefits patients with positive nodes and tumors larger than 1 cm.

•

Randomized controlled trials are expected in the future.

The prognostic value of HER2 status and efficacy of anti-HER2 therapy in patients with HR-positive mucinous breast cancer: a nationwide study from the Korean Breast Cancer Society

PURPOSE

The effect of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status on mucinous carcinoma (MC) of the breast is unknown due to the rarity of HER2-positive cases. We evaluated the prognostic value of HER2 status and the efficacy of anti-HER2 therapy in patients with hormone receptor (HR)-positive MC.

METHODS

From the data of 154,661 patients recorded in the Korean Breast Cancer Registry between January 1990 and August 2016, 3076 (2.0%) were diagnosed with MC. Overall survival (OS) according to HER2 status and anti-HER2 therapy was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier estimates. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the adjusted hazards ratio (HR) for clinicopathologic factors.

RESULTS

A total of 2716 HR-positive MC patients were enrolled and followed up for a median 100.1 months. Of these, 2094 (77.1%) were HER2-negative and 228 (8.4%) were HER2-positive. HR-positive, HER2-positive MC patients had more advanced pathologic tumor stages (T3 or T4) (p = 0.001), more axillary lymph node involvement (p < 0.001), higher nuclear grade (p < 0.001), and more lymphovascular invasion (p = 0.012) than HER2-negative patients. Subgroup analysis of HR-positive, node-positive MC showed that HER2-positive MC was an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR = 2.657; 95% CI, 1.665-4.241; p < 0.001). HR-positive, node-positive, and HER2-negative MC had significantly longer OS than HER2-positive MBC (p = 0.017). The node-positive subgroup that received anti-HER2 therapy had increased OS, although not significantly (p = 0.224).

CONCLUSION

Our nationwide database study revealed that HER2-positive status was associated with worse prognosis in HR-positive and node-positive MC. Anti-HER2 therapy might be beneficial in HR-positive, node-positive, and HER2-positive MC.

Omission of Chemotherapy for the Treatment of Mucinous Breast Cancer: A Nationwide Study from the Korean Breast Cancer Society

PURPOSE

Mucinous breast carcinoma (MBC) is a rare type of breast cancer. Although patients with MBC may have a better prognosis than that of patients with invasive ductal carcinoma, many clinicians administer adjuvant chemotherapy regimens similar to those for other breast tumors. Using data from a nationwide clinical database, this study evaluated the significance of adjuvant systemic chemotherapy and whether it can be omitted in MBC patients.

METHODS

We included 3,076 patients with a diagnosis of MBC recorded in the Korean Breast Cancer Registry between January 1990 and August 2016. We used the Kaplan-Meier method to analyze breast cancer-specific survival (BCCS) and overall survival (OS). Multivariate analysis was performed using a Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) model to estimate the adjusted HR for each prognostic factor.

RESULTS

A total of 2,988 MBC patients were enrolled and followed-up for a median of 100 months (range, 2-324 months). Multivariate analysis revealed that axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis and estrogen receptor (ER) negativity were significant prognostic factors for BCSS. Meanwhile, old age, pathologic tumor stage, and ALN metastasis were significant prognostic factors for OS. Subgroup analysis of ER-positive MBC showed that ALN metastasis was a significant prognostic factor for BCSS. Additionally, old age, pathologic tumor stage, and ALN metastasis were prognostic factors for OS. Ultimately, ALN metastasis was the most statistically significant prognostic factor for MBC. However, chemotherapy had no significant effect on BCSS and OS. The Kaplan-Meier curves of BCSS and OS based on pathologic tumor and nodal stages and age revealed that chemotherapy did not statistically significantly improve prognosis, except for the N3 stage.

CONCLUSION

Our large retrospective analysis revealed that adjuvant chemotherapy provided little benefit to improve the prognosis of most ER-positive MBC patients. Therefore, chemotherapy can be omitted in the treatment of most ER-positive MBC.

Clinicopathologic characteristics of HER2-positive pure mucinous carcinoma of the breast

BACKGROUND

Pure mucinous carcinoma (PMC) is a rare type of breast cancer, estimated to represent 2% of invasive breast cancer. PMC is typically positive for estrogen receptors (ER) and progesterone receptors (PR) and negative for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). The clinicopathologic characteristics of HER2-positive PMC have not been investigated.

METHODS

Pathology archives were searched for PMC diagnosed from January 1999 to April 2018. Clinicopathologic data and microscopic findings were reviewed and compared between HER2-positive PMC and HER2-negative PMC. We also analyzed the differences in disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival according to clinicopathologic parameters including HER2 status in overall PMC cases.

RESULTS

There were 21 HER2-positive cases (4.8%) in 438 PMCs. The average tumor size of HER2-positive PMC was 32.21 mm (± 26.55). Lymph node metastasis was present in seven cases. Compared to HER2-negative PMC, HER2-positive PMC presented with a more advanced T category (p < .001), more frequent lymph node metastasis (p = .009), and a higher nuclear and histologic grade (p < .001). Microscopically, signet ring cells were frequently observed in HER2-positive PMC (p < .001), whereas a micropapillary pattern was more frequent in HER2-negative PMC (p = .012). HER2-positive PMC was more frequently negative for ER (33.3% vs. 1.2%) and PR (28.6% vs. 7.2%) than HER2-negative PMC and showed a high Ki-67 labeling index. During follow-up, distant metastasis and recurrence developed in three HER2-positive PMC patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that only HER2-positivity and lymph node status were significantly associated with DFS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that HER2-positive PMC is a more aggressive subgroup of PMC. HER2 positivity should be considered for adequate management of PMC.

Omission of adjuvant radiotherapy following breast-conserving surgery for elderly women with early-stage pure mucinous breast carcinoma

Background

We aimed to ascertain population-based practice patterns and survival outcomes of postoperative radiotherapy following breast conserving-surgery (BCS) in elderly women (aged ≥65 years) with early-stage pure mucinous breast carcinoma (PMBC).

Methods

Patients aged ≥65 years diagnosed with T1–2N0 and hormone receptor-positive PMBC between 1990 and 2010 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Binomial logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier method, Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, and propensity score matching (PSM) were used for statistical analysis.

Results

We enrolled 3416 patients, including 1225 (35.9%) and 2191 (64.1%) in the no-radiotherapy and radiotherapy cohorts, respectively. The percentage of patients receiving postoperative radiotherapy following BCS was significantly lower after 2004 (59.5% between 2004 and 2010), relative to that before 2004 (71.1% between 1990 and 2003; P < 0.001). Before PSM, the 10-year breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) rates were 98.1 and 93.2% for patients with and without postoperative radiotherapy (log-rank test, P < 0.001), respectively. In the PSM cohort, receiving postoperative radiotherapy was associated with better BCSS rates, with 10-year BCSS rates of 97.6 and 94.5% in patients with and without postoperative radiotherapy, respectively (log-rank test, P = 0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional analysis indicated that receiving postoperative radiotherapy was an independent factor associated with better BCSS before (P < 0.001) and after PSM (P = 0.001), relative to those not receiving postoperative radiotherapy.

Conclusions

This study shows a decreasing utilization of postoperative radiotherapy following BCS of elderly PMBC patients over time. However, postoperative radiotherapy following BCS should be administered for elderly women with PMBC owing to independent association with better survival.

A Competing Nomogram to Predict Survival Outcomes in Invasive Micropapillary Breast Cancer

Background: Although it is widely accepted that invasive micropapillary carcinoma (IMPC) presents more aggressive behavior and has a higher aggressive behavior, the prognosis of IMPC compared with invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) remains controversial. We conducted this study to explore gene expression profiles of IMPC and establish a competing nomogram that predicts the survival outcomes across these two groups of patients. Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were reviewed. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to adjust for potential baseline confounding between IMPC and IDC group. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the occurrence of overall mortality. The Gray method was used to estimate the rate of breast cancer specific death (BCSD). A competing regression model was used to evaluate factors associated with BCSD. A nomogram based on the competing risk regression model was established to predict individual outcomes. IMPC-specific gene expression profiles were explored using microarrays data from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Gene ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway (KEGG) enrichment analyses were performed. Results: In this study, 330786 (99.62%) patients with IDC 1247 (0.38%) patients with IMPC were included. Patients with IMPC had more lymph node involvement and a larger tumor size compared with those with IDC. After PSM, many distributional differences were eliminated, showing that the IMPC and IDC group were more similar. Patients with IMPC had a favorable prognosis with statistical significance compared with patients with IDC (overall mortality HR = 0.68; 95%CI, 0.53-0.86; P = 0.002). Based on Gray method, patients with IMPC had a favorable prognosis with significant statistical significance compared with patients with IDC (BCSD SHR = 0.64; 95%CI, 0.47-0.88; P = 0.006). Multivariate analysis based on competing risk model demonstrated that IMPC was a favorable independent factor for BCSD. The nomogram could accurately predict BCSD with a high internal and external validated C-index (0.835, 0.818 respectively). A total of 53 upregulated differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and 40 downregulated DEGs of IMPC was identified. The GO analysis results showed that downregulated DEGs were significantly enriched in extracellular structure organization, extracellular matrix, cell-substrate adhesion junction. KEGG analysis of selective gene sets shows that downregulated DEGs significantly enriched for processes related to carbon metabolism, Rap1 signaling pathway. Conclusion: In the current study, IMPC accounted for 0.38% of the entire cohort. IMPC was found to be a favorable independent prognostic factor. The present study identified gene expression profiles and signal pathways of IMPC. The developed nomogram can help the oncologists to predict individual outcomes more accurately.

Prognostic Nomograms for Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival of Patients with Major Salivary Gland Mucoepidermoid Carcinoma

Background: The aim of this study was to develop and validate prognostic nomograms predicting overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with major salivary gland (MaSG) mucoepidermoid carcinoma (MEC).

Methods: 1398 MaSG-MEC patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. They were randomly and equally divided into a training cohort (n=699) and a validation cohort (n=699). The best subsets of covariates were identified to develop nomograms predicting OS and CSS based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value in the multivariate Cox models. The nomograms were internally and externally validated by the bootstrap resampling method. The predictive ability was evaluated by Harrell's Concordance Index (C-index).

Results: For the training cohort, eight (age at diagnosis, tumor grade, primary site, surgery, radiation, T, N and M classification) and seven predictors (all the above factors except primary site) were selected to create the nomograms estimating the 3- and 5- year OS and CSS, respectively. C-index indicated better predictive performance of the nomograms than the 7th AJCC staging system, which was confirmed by both internal (via the training cohort: OS: 0.888 vs 0.785, CSS: 0.938 vs 0.821) and external validation (via the validation cohort: OS: 0.844 vs 0.743, CSS: 0.882 vs 0.787). The calibration plots also revealed good agreements between the nomogram-based prediction and observed survival.

Conclusions: We have proposed and validated the nomograms predicting OS and CSS of MaSG-MEC. They are proved to be of higher predictive value than the AJCC staging system and may be adopted in future clinical practice.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Male Patients With Breast Cancer

Male breast cancer (MBC) is rare, and most patients are diagnosed at an advanced stage. We aimed to develop a reliable nomogram to predict breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) for MBC patients, thus helping clinical diagnosis and treatment. Based on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, 2,451 patients diagnosed with MBC from 2010 to 2015 were selected for this study. They were randomly assigned to either a training cohort (n = 1715) or a validation cohort (n = 736). The Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine the independent prognostic factors, which were then utilized to build a nomogram for predicting 3- and 5-year BCSS. The discrimination and calibration of the new model was evaluated using the Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves, while its accuracy and benefits were assessed by comparing it to the traditional AJCC staging system using the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and the decision curve analysis (DCA). Multivariate models revealed that age, AJCC stage, ER status, PR status, and surgery all showed a significant association with BCSS. A nomogram based on these variables was constructed to predict survival in MBC patients. Compared to the AJCC stage, the C-index (training group: 0.840 vs. 0.775, validation group: 0.818 vs. 0.768), the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the training set (3-year AUC: 0.852 vs. 0.778, 5-year AUC: 0.841 vs. 0.774) and the validation set (3-year AUC: 0.778 vs. 0.752, 5-year AUC: 0.852 vs. 0.794), and the calibration plots of this model all exhibited better performance. Additionally, the NRI and IDI confirmed that the nomogram was a great prognosis tool. Finally, the 3- and 5-year DCA curves yielded larger net benefits than the traditional AJCC stage. In conclusion, we have successfully established an effective nomogram to predict BCSS in MBC patients, which can assist clinicians in determining the appropriate therapy strategies for individual male patients.

Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-positive Mucinous Carcinoma with Signet Ring Cell Differentiation, Which Showed Complete Response after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy

Mucinous carcinoma (MC) is a rare subtype of breast cancer, which is composed of tumor cells floating in the abundant extracellular mucin. This form of cancer is usually estrogen receptor/progesterone receptor positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) negative. Here, we present a case of HER2-positive MC with an unusual signet ring cell differentiation. It is very rare that a breast tumor consists entirely of signet ring cells. The tumor showed pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy with trastuzumab and pertuzumab. pCR of HER2-positive MC has rarely been described in literature. It is important to consider the biological heterogeneity of MCs for effective management.

Tubular and mucinous breast cancer: results of a cohort of 917 patients

Objectives:

To analyze axillary lymph node involvement (ALNI) rate and survival for mucinous (MC) and tubular (TC) breast carcinomas considered being of very good prognosis and for which an axillary surgical exploration could be questioned.

Methods:

Our multicentric cohort consisted of 21,135 patients with clinically node-negative invasive breast cancer, without neoadjuvant therapy, between 1999 and 2013 in 10 French centers. ALNI rate and survival were analyzed according to patient and tumor characteristics.

Results:

Our cohort consisted of 672 TC and 245 MC. Patients were older and tumor size greater for MC and pathologic factors were more pejorative. The rate of mastectomies and adjuvant chemotherapy was higher in the MC group. Axillary lymph node status was determined by SLNB alone in 71.2% of patients. ALNI rates were 17.9% and 18% for TC and MC, respectively. ALNI rate was lesser for MC (OR 0.503, p = 0.024) and greater in case of lympho-vascular invasion (OR 5.0, p < 0.0001) and for tumors >10 mm (OR 2.17, p = 0.042). Median follow-up was 58 months. The 5- and 7-year overall survival rates were 97.1% and 95% for TC, respectively; 92.3% and 91.2% for MC ( p = 0.043); 5- and 7-year disease-free survival rates were 97.9% and 97.2% versus 95.2 and 93.6% ( p = 0.041). Lympho-vascular invasion was the only predictive factor for overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.70)’ grade 2 (HR = 10) and HR-negative (HR = 4.9) were the two predictive factors for disease-free survival.

Conclusion:

This study confirms the need for an axillary exploration for these tumors even for a tumor size <10 mm and a favorable prognosis.

Predictors for Survival and Distribution of 21-Gene Recurrence Score in Patients With Pure Mucinous Breast Cancer: A SEER Population-Based Retrospective Analysis

BACKGROUND

Pure mucinous breast cancer (PMBC) is a rare pathologic type of breast cancer, the prognostic factors of which have not been clearly defined. This study aimed to analyze the prognostic markers and distribution of 21-gene recurrence score (RS) in patients with PMBC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Utilizing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, a retrospective analysis of PMBC cases was conducted. Multivariate analyses were used to evaluate the indicators for prognosis and the correlations between RS and traditional clinicopathologic characteristics. Disease was subdivided into 4 molecular phenotypes using estrogen receptor (ER) status and tumor grade.

RESULTS

Of the 8048 patients, most had ER-positive and node-negative tumors. Multivariate analysis revealed that molecular phenotype as well as age, race, tumor size, and lymph node status was an independent prognostic factor for patients with PMBC (P < .05). The 5-year breast cancer-specific survival of patients among different phenotypes was significantly different (97.9% for ER-positive and grade I tumor, 96.9% for ER-positive and grade II-III tumor, 96% for ER-negative and grade I tumor, 90.1% for ER-negative and grade II-III tumors, P < .001). The proportions of patients categorized into low, intermediate, and high RS risk group were 64.9%, 31.9%, and 3.2%, respectively. Grade, progesterone receptor status, and age were identified as independent variables associated with RS.

CONCLUSION

PMBC had favorable biological features and relatively good prognosis. Molecular phenotype as well as age, race, tumor size, and lymph node status were independent prognostic markers. Furthermore, age, progesterone receptor status, and grade could independently predict RS.

Epidemiology and survival outcomes of mucinous adenocarcinomas: A SEER population-based study

To investigate the epidemiology, demographics and survival of mucinous adenocarcinomas (MACs), we identified 80,758 MAC patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The reported incidence of MACs ebbed and flowed over time; however, a significant increase in reported annual age-adjusted incidences of MACs in the appendix, lung and bronchus was observed from 1981 to 2014. The demographics and outcomes of MACs differed by anatomic sites. MACs of the stomach had the largest percentage of poorly differentiated or undifferentiated tumors (41.2%), while MACs of the appendix and pancreas were associated with more advanced tumor stage (P < 0.001). MACs of the pancreas, lung and bronchus and stomach showed worse survival than other sites, despite localized, regional or distant stage (P < 0.001). In univariate and multivariate analysis, site, tumor grade, tumor stage, regional nodes, sex, race, surgery and year of diagnosis were identified as independent prognostic factors of cancer-specific survival. In conclusion, the incidence of MACs of certain specific sites, such as the appendix, lung and bronchus, is rapidly increasing. We also revealed a series of prognostic factors of MACs, including tumor sites, tumor grade and tumor stage, which may improve the current understanding of the clinical and biological patterns of MACs.

Nomogram for predicting survival in patients with pancreatic cancer

Background

The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in pancreatic cancer (PC).

Patients and methods

We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to analyze 53,028 patients diagnosed with PC from 2004 to 2014 and randomly divided them into the training (n=26,583) cohort and validation (n=26,445) cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to select independent prognostic factors. We used significant prognostic factors for constructing a nomogram based on Cox regression analyses. Validation of the nomogram was assessed by discrimination and calibration.

Results

According to the multivariate models of training cohort, a nomogram that combined age, race, tumor location, marital status, tumor size, TNM stage, tumor grade, and surgery was constructed for predicting CSS. The internally validated and externally validated C-indexes were 0.741 and 0.734, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the nomogram was able to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS accurately.

Conclusion

A nomogram effectively predicts survival in patients with PC. This prognostic model may be considered for use in clinical practice.

Whole-lesion histogram analysis of the apparent diffusion coefficient: Evaluation of the correlation with subtypes of mucinous breast carcinoma

PURPOSE

To evaluate the utility of the whole-lesion histogram apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) for characterizing the heterogeneity of mucinous breast carcinoma (MBC) and to determine which ADC metrics may help to best differentiate subtypes of MBC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study involved 52 MBC patients, including 37 pure MBC (PMBC) and 15 mixed MBC (MMBC). The PMBC patients were subtyped into PMBC-A (20 cases) and PMBC-B (17 cases) groups. All patients underwent preoperative diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) at 1.5T and the whole-lesion ADC assessments were generated. Histogram-derived ADC parameters were compared between PMBC vs. MMBC and PMBC-A vs. PMBC-B, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine optimal histogram parameters for differentiating these groups.

RESULTS

The PMBC group exhibited significantly higher ADC values for the mean (P = 0.004), 25^th (P = 0.004), 50^th (P = 0.004), 75^th (P = 0.006), and 90^th percentiles (P = 0.013) and skewness (P = 0.021) than did the MMBC group. The 25^th percentile of ADC values achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC) (0.792), with a cutoff value of 1.345 × 10^-3 mm² /s, in distinguishing PMBC and MMBC. The PMBC-A group showed significantly higher ADC values for the mean (P = 0.049), 25^th (P = 0.015), and 50^th (P = 0.026) percentiles and skewness (P = 0.004) than did the PMBC-B group. The 25^th percentile of the ADC cutoff value (1.476 × 10^-3 mm² /s) demonstrated the best AUC (0.837) among the ADC values for distinguishing PMBC-A and PMBC-B.

CONCLUSION

Whole-lesion ADC histogram analysis enables comprehensive evaluation of an MBC in its entirety and differentiating subtypes of MBC. Thus, it may be a helpful and supportive tool for conventional MRI.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

4 Technical Efficacy: Stage 2 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2018;47:391-400.