Modeled Population Connectivity across the Hawaiian Archipelago

Increased occurrence of the rare golden color morph of Pacific chub Kyphosus sandwicensis in a no-take marine reserve

Pacific chub, Kyphosus sandwicensis, are typically gray but some individuals display a golden color morph. We estimated that the frequency of occurrence of the golden morphs increased significantly from 2007 (1.9%) and 2012 (2.6%) to 2017 (5.0%) inside a no-take marine reserve around Nihoa Island in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. While sporadic observations of a golden color morph have been noted for several other marine fish species, we provide a quantitative estimate of changes in the frequency of occurrence of the morph within a wild marine population.

The effect of reef morphology on coral recruitment at multiple spatial scales

Coral reefs are in decline worldwide, making it increasingly important to promote coral recruitment in new or degraded habitat. Coral reef morphology-the structural form of reef substrate-affects many aspects of reef function, yet the effect of reef morphology on coral recruitment is not well understood. We used structure-from-motion photogrammetry and airborne remote sensing to measure reef morphology (rugosity, curvature, slope, and fractal dimension) across a broad continuum of spatial scales and evaluated the effect of morphology on coral recruitment in three broadcast-spawning genera. We also measured the effect of other environmental and biotic factors such as fish density, adult coral cover, hydrodynamic larval import, and depth on coral recruitment. All variables combined explained 72% of coral recruitment in the study region. Coarse reef rugosity and curvature mapped at ≥2 m spatial resolution-such as large colonies, knolls, and boulders-were positively correlated with coral recruitment, explaining 22% of variation in recruitment. Morphology mapped at finer scales (≤32 cm resolution) was not significant. Hydrodynamic larval import was also positively related to coral recruitment in Porites and Montipora spp., and grazer fish density was linked to significantly lower recruitment in all genera. In addition, grazer density, reef morphology, and hydrodynamic import had differential effects on coral genera, reflecting genus-specific life history traits, and model performance was lower in gonochoric species. Overall, coral reef morphology is a key indicator of recruitment potential that can be detected by remote sensing, allowing potential larval sinks to be identified and factored into restoration actions.

The antique genetic plight of the Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus)

Disentangling the impact of Late Quaternary climate change from human activities can have crucial implications on the conservation of endangered species. We investigated the population genetics and demography of the Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus), one of the world's most endangered marine mammals, through an unprecedented dataset encompassing historical (extinct) and extant populations from the eastern North Atlantic to the entire Mediterranean Basin. We show that Cabo Blanco (Western Sahara/Mauritania), Madeira, Western Mediterranean (historical range) and Eastern Mediterranean regions segregate into four populations. This structure is probably the consequence of recent drift, combined with long-term isolation by distance (R2 = 0.7), resulting from prevailing short-distance (less than 500 km) and infrequent long-distance dispersal (less than 1500 km). All populations (Madeira especially), show high levels of inbreeding and low levels of genetic diversity, seemingly declining since historical time, but surprisingly not being impacted by the 1997 massive die-off in Cabo Blanco. Approximate Bayesian Computation analyses support scenarios combining local extinctions and a major effective population size decline in all populations during Antiquity. Our results suggest that the early densification of human populations around the Mediterranean Basin coupled with the development of seafaring techniques were the main drivers of the decline of Mediterranean monk seals.

High heritability of coral calcification rates and evolutionary potential under ocean acidification

Estimates of heritability inform evolutionary potential and the likely outcome of many management actions, but such estimates remain scarce for marine organisms. Here, we report high heritability of calcification rate among the eight most dominant Hawaiian coral species under reduced pH simulating future ocean conditions. Coral colonies were sampled from up to six locations across a natural mosaic in seawater chemistry throughout Hawai'i and fragmented into clonal replicates maintained under both ambient and high pCO2 conditions. Broad sense heritability of calcification rates was high among all eight species, ranging from a low of 0.32 in Porites evermanni to a high of 0.61 in Porites compressa. The overall results were inconsistent with short-term acclimatization to the local environment or adaptation to the mean or ideal conditions. Similarly, in 'local vs. foreign' and 'home vs. away' tests there was no clear signature of local adaptation. Instead, the data are most consistent with a protected polymorphism as the mechanism which maintains differential pH tolerance within the populations. Substantial individual variation, coupled with high heritability and large population sizes, imply considerable scope for natural selection and adaptive capacity, which has major implications for evolutionary potential and management of corals in response to climate change.

Larval connectivity patterns of the North Indo-West Pacific coral reefs

Coral reefs of the North Indo-West Pacific provide important ecosystem services to the region but are subjected to multiple local and global threats. Strengthening management measures necessitate understanding the variability of larval connectivity and bridging global connectivity models to local scales. An individual-based Lagrangian biophysical model was used to simulate connectivity between coral reefs for three organisms with different early life history characteristics: a coral (Acropora millepora), a sea urchin (Tripneustes gratilla), and a reef fish (Epinephelus sp). Connectivity metrics and reef clusters were computed from the settlement probability matrices. Fitted power law functions derived from the dispersal kernels provided relative probabilities of connection given only the distance between reefs, and demonstrated that 95% of the larvae across organisms settled within a third of their maximum settlement distances. The magnitude of the connectivity metric values of reef cells were sensitive to differences both in the type of organism and temporal variability. Seasonal variability of connections was more dominant than interannual variability. However, despite these differences, the moderate to high correlation of metrics between organisms and seasonal matrices suggest that the spatial patterns are relatively similar between reefs. A cluster analysis based on the Bray-Curtis Dissimilarity of sink and source connections synthesized the inherent variability of these multiple large connectivity matrices. Through this, similarities in regional connectivity patterns were determined at various cluster sizes depending on the scale of interest. The validity of the model is supported by 1) the simulated dispersal kernels being within the range of reported parentage analysis estimates; and, 2) the clusters that emerged reflect the dispersal barriers implied by previously published population genetics studies. The tools presented here (dispersal kernels, temporal variability maps and reef clustering) can be used to include regional patterns of connectivity into the spatial management of coral reefs.

Evidence of local adaptation in a waterfall-climbing Hawaiian goby fish derived from coupled biophysical modeling of larval dispersal and post-settlement selection

Background

Local adaptation of marine and diadromous species is thought to be a product of larval dispersal, settlement mortality, and differential reproductive success, particularly in heterogeneous post-settlement habitats. We evaluated this premise with an oceanographic passive larval dispersal model coupled with individual-based models of post-settlement selection and reproduction to infer conditions that underlie local adaptation in Sicyopterus stimpsoni, an amphidromous Hawaiian goby known for its ability to climb waterfalls.

Results

Our model results demonstrated that larval dispersal is spatio-temporally asymmetric, with more larvae dispersed from the southeast (the Big Island) to northwest (Kaua‘i) along the archipelago, reflecting prevailing conditions such as El Niño/La Niña oscillations. Yet connectivity is nonetheless sufficient to result in homogenous populations across the archipelago. We also found, however, that ontogenetic shifts in habitat can give rise to adaptive morphological divergence when the strength of predation-driven post-settlement selection crosses a critical threshold. Notably, our simulations showed that larval dispersal is not the only factor determining the likelihood of morphological divergence. We found adaptive potential and evolutionary trajectories of S. stimpsoni were greater on islands with stronger environmental gradients and greater variance in larval cohort morphology due to fluctuating immigration.

Conclusions

Contrary to expectation, these findings indicate that immigration can act in concert with selection to favor local adaptation and divergence in species with marine larval dispersal. Further development of model simulations, parameterized to reflect additional empirical estimates of abiotic and biotic factors, will help advance our understanding of the proximate and ultimate mechanisms driving adaptive evolution, population resilience, and speciation in marine-associated species.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-019-1413-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A coalescent sampler successfully detects biologically meaningful population structure overlooked by F-statistics

Assessing the geographic structure of populations has relied heavily on Sewell Wright's F-statistics and their numerous analogues for many decades. However, it is well appreciated that, due to their nonlinear relationship with gene flow, F-statistics frequently fail to reject the null model of panmixia in species with relatively high levels of gene flow and large population sizes. Coalescent genealogy samplers instead allow a model-selection approach to the characterization of population structure, thereby providing the opportunity for stronger inference. Here, we validate the use of coalescent samplers in a high gene flow context using simulations of a stepping-stone model. In an example case study, we then re-analyze genetic datasets from 41 marine species sampled from throughout the Hawaiian archipelago using coalescent model selection. Due to the archipelago's linear nature, it is expected that most species will conform to some sort of stepping-stone model (leading to an expected pattern of isolation by distance), but F-statistics have only supported this inference in ~10% of these datasets. Our simulation analysis shows that a coalescent sampler can make a correct inference of stepping-stone gene flow in nearly 100% of cases where gene flow is ≤100 migrants per generation (equivalent to F ST = 0.002), while F-statistics had mixed results. Our re-analysis of empirical datasets found that nearly 70% of datasets with an unambiguous result fit a stepping-stone model with varying population sizes and rates of gene flow, although 37% of datasets yielded ambiguous results. Together, our results demonstrate that coalescent samplers hold great promise for detecting weak but meaningful population structure, and defining appropriate management units.

Genetic population structure of the convict surgeonfish Acanthurus triostegus: a phylogeographic reassessment across its range

This study investigates the genetic population structure and connectivity of Acanthurus triostegus in five Indo-Pacific biogeographic regions (western and eastern Indian Ocean, western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean), using a mitochondrial DNA marker spanning the ATPase8 and ATPase6 gene regions. In order to assess the phylogeography and genetic population structure of A. triostegus across its range, 35 individuals were sampled from five localities in the western Indian Ocean and complemented with 227 sequences from two previous studies. Results from the overall analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) without a priori grouping showed evidence of significant differentiation in the Indo-Pacific, with 25 (8.3%) out of 300 pairwise Φ_ST comparisons being significant. However, the hierarchical AMOVA grouping of Indian and Pacific Ocean populations failed to support the vicariance hypothesis, showing a lack of a genetic break between the two ocean basins. Instead, the correlation between pairwise Φ_ST values and geographic distance showed that dispersal of A. triostegus in the Indo-Pacific Ocean follows an isolation-by-distance model. Three haplogroups could be deduced from the haplotype network and phylogenetic tree, with haplogroup 1 and 2 dominating the Indian and the Pacific Ocean, respectively, while haplogroup 3 exclusively occurring in the Hawaiian Archipelago of the central Pacific Ocean.

Modeled larval connectivity of a multi-species reef fish and invertebrate assemblage off the coast of Moloka'i, Hawai'i

We use a novel individual-based model (IBM) to simulate larval dispersal around the island of Moloka‘i in the Hawaiian Archipelago. Our model uses ocean current output from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) as well as biological data on four invertebrate and seven fish species of management relevance to produce connectivity maps among sites around the island of Moloka‘i. These 11 species span the range of life history characteristics of Hawaiian coral reef species and show different spatial and temporal patterns of connectivity as a result. As expected, the longer the pelagic larval duration (PLD), the greater the proportion of larvae that disperse longer distances, but regardless of PLD (3–270 d) most successful dispersal occurs either over short distances within an island (<30 km) or to adjacent islands (50–125 km). Again, regardless of PLD, around the island of Moloka‘i, connectivity tends to be greatest among sites along the same coastline and exchange between northward, southward, eastward and westward-facing shores is limited. Using a graph-theoretic approach to visualize the data, we highlight that the eastern side of the island tends to show the greatest out-degree and betweenness centrality, which indicate important larval sources and connectivity pathways for the rest of the island. The marine protected area surrounding Kalaupapa National Historical Park emerges as a potential source for between-island larval connections, and the west coast of the Park is one of the few regions on Moloka‘i that acts as a net larval source across all species. Using this IBM and visualization approach reveals patterns of exchange between habitat regions and highlights critical larval sources and multi-generational pathways to indicate priority areas for marine resource managers.

The Eastern Tropical Pacific coral population connectivity and the role of the Eastern Pacific Barrier

Long-distance dispersal is believed to strongly influence coral reef population dynamics across the Tropical Pacific. However, the spatial scale and strength at which populations are potentially connected by dispersal remains uncertain. To determine the patterns in connectivity between the Eastern (ETP) and Central Tropical Pacific (CTP) ecoregions, we used a biophysical model incorporating ocean currents and larval biology to quantify the seascape-wide dispersal potential among all population. We quantified the likelihood and determined the oceanographic conditions that enable the dispersal of coral larvae across the Eastern Pacific Barrier (EP-Barrier) and identified the main connectivity pathways and their conservation value for dominant reef-building corals. Overall, we found that coral assemblages within the CTP and ETP are weakly connected through dispersal. Although the EP-Barrier isolates the ETP from the CTP ecoregion, we found evidence that the EP-Barrier may be breached, in both directions, by rare dispersal events. These rare events could explain the evolutionary genetic similarity among populations of pocilloporids in the ecoregions. Moreover, the ETP may function as a stronger source rather than a destination, providing potential recruits to CTP populations. We also show evidence for a connectivity loop in the ETP, which may positively influence long-term population persistence in the region. Coral conservation and management communities should consider eight-key stepping stone ecoregions when developing strategies to preserve the long-distance connectivity potential across the ETP and CTP.

Seascape models reveal places to focus coastal fisheries management

To design effective marine reserves and support fisheries, more information on fishing patterns and impacts for targeted species is needed, as well as better understanding of their key habitats. However, fishing impacts vary geographically and are difficult to disentangle from other factors that influence targeted fish distributions. We developed a set of fishing effort and habitat layers at high resolution and employed machine learning techniques to create regional-scale seascape models and predictive maps of biomass and body length of targeted reef fishes for the main Hawaiian Islands. Spatial patterns of fishing effort were shown to be highly variable and seascape models indicated a low threshold beyond which targeted fish assemblages were severely impacted. Topographic complexity, exposure, depth, and wave power were identified as key habitat variables that influenced targeted fish distributions and defined productive habitats for reef fisheries. High targeted reef fish biomass and body length were found in areas not easily accessed by humans, while model predictions when fishing effort was set to zero showed these high values to be more widely dispersed among suitable habitats. By comparing current targeted fish distributions with those predicted when fishing effort was removed, areas with high recovery potential on each island were revealed, with average biomass recovery of 517% and mean body length increases of 59% on Oahu, the most heavily fished island. Spatial protection of these areas would aid recovery of nearshore coral reef fisheries.