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Romero-Martín R, Caballero-Leiva I, Llasat MC, Llasat-Botija M, Rigo T, Valdemoro HI, Gilabert J, Cortès M, Jiménez JA. Mapping cumulative compound hydrometeorological and marine-induced risks on the NW Mediterranean coast. Sci Rep 2024; 14:3237. [PMID: 38332259 PMCID: PMC10853219 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-53899-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2022] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 02/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Coastal risks in the Mediterranean are a result of the complex interplay between hydrometeorological and marine hazards. The region encompasses areas with varying degrees of vulnerability to these hazards, as well as spatial variations in exposure values, making it essential to adopt a comprehensive and nuanced approach to risk assessment and management. It is worth noting that hydrometeorological hazards, such as flash floods, can often have a greater impact than strictly coastal hazards, highlighting the need to consider the full range of potential risks. Therefore, coastal managers must adopt a multi-hazard approach to make sound risk management decisions. This study addresses this need using an index-based framework that assesses the integrated risk in time and space (hereafter referred to as cumulative compound risk) in coastal zones by aggregating the main hydrometeorological and marine hazards, the vulnerability of the territory to both types of hazards, and values at exposure. The framework is designed for use at large spatial scales (applied to a 1100 km coastline in this study), with the basic spatial unit being relevant for management (here set as the municipality in this study). Its application enables the assessment of spatial variations in integrated risk as well as individual hydrometeorological and marine contributions. The combined use of the indices and cluster analysis helps identify similarities and differences in the risk profile of spatial units, and thus, define homogeneous areas from a risk management perspective. In this study, the framework was applied to the Spanish Mediterranean coastline, an area representative of the climatic, geomorphological, and socioeconomic conditions of the Mediterranean coast.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rut Romero-Martín
- Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya·BarcelonaTech, c/Jordi Girona 1-3, Campus Nord ed. D1, 08034, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Maria Carmen Llasat
- GAMA, Department de Física Aplicada, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Tomeu Rigo
- Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya, C. Berlin, 38-46, 08029, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Herminia I Valdemoro
- Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya·BarcelonaTech, c/Jordi Girona 1-3, Campus Nord ed. D1, 08034, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Joan Gilabert
- Institut Cartogràfic i Geològic de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Maria Cortès
- Delegació Territorial de Catalunya, AEMET, Barcelona, Spain
| | - José A Jiménez
- Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya·BarcelonaTech, c/Jordi Girona 1-3, Campus Nord ed. D1, 08034, Barcelona, Spain.
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2
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Souto RD, Batalhão ACS. Citizen science as a tool for collaborative site-specific oil spill mapping: the case of Brazil. AN ACAD BRAS CIENC 2022; 94:e20211262. [PMID: 35830094 DOI: 10.1590/0001-3765202220211262] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2021] [Accepted: 06/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Many maritime disasters lead to oil pollution, which undermines ecosystem balance, human health, the prosperity of countries and coastal areas across borders, and people's livelihoods. This is a problem that affects the whole world. Governments must strive to ensure that operations in the marine environment are safe and avoid oil pollution by adopting methods that anticipate future scenarios to mitigate the effects of this pollution when it occurs. This study investigates a method of managing contaminated coastal areas, aiming to contribute to the management of the environmental crisis caused by disasters through the use of online collaborative mapping by volunteer collaborators. Volunteer collaborators have been sending georeferenced data and photographs of locations affected by pollution. This information is processed and printed on a cartographic basis created by the web-mapping platform, Google MyMaps©. Photos of 90 locations were plotted on the map, and the pictures demonstrate that the oil slicks that reached the Brazilian coast had very different shapes and consistency. This research can contribute as a participatory monitoring tool during and after oil spills, promoting the oriented preservation of marine ecosystems through citizen science.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raquel Dezidério Souto
- Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (PPGG/UFRJ), Laboratory of Cartography (Geocart), Av. Athos da Silveira Ramos, 274, Cidade Universitária, 21941-916 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.,Virtual Institute for Sustainable Development - IVIDES.org, Estrada do Pontal, 6530, Bl. 1, Ap. 203, Recreio dos Bandeirantes, 22790-877 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - André C S Batalhão
- Virtual Institute for Sustainable Development - IVIDES.org, Estrada do Pontal, 6530, Bl. 1, Ap. 203, Recreio dos Bandeirantes, 22790-877 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.,Nova University Lisbon (UNL), Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research (CENSE), School of Science and Technology, Campus da Caparica, Caparica, 2829-519, Almada, Portugal
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3
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Magnan AK, Oppenheimer M, Garschagen M, Buchanan MK, Duvat VKE, Forbes DL, Ford JD, Lambert E, Petzold J, Renaud FG, Sebesvari Z, van de Wal RSW, Hinkel J, Pörtner HO. Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas. Sci Rep 2022; 12:10677. [PMID: 35739282 PMCID: PMC9226159 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2021] [Accepted: 06/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandre K Magnan
- Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI-Sciences Po), Paris, France. .,LIENSs Laboratory UMR7266, CNRS & University of La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France.
| | - Michael Oppenheimer
- Department of Geosciences and the School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Matthias Garschagen
- Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | | | - Virginie K E Duvat
- LIENSs Laboratory UMR7266, CNRS & University of La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
| | - Donald L Forbes
- Natural Resources Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Canada
| | - James D Ford
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Erwin Lambert
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.,Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands
| | - Jan Petzold
- Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany.,Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Fabrice G Renaud
- School of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Glasgow, Dumfries, UK
| | - Zita Sebesvari
- Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany
| | - Roderik S W van de Wal
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.,Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jochen Hinkel
- Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany.,Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany
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4
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Roukounis CN, Tsihrintzis VA. Indices of Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change: a Review. ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESSES 2022; 9:29. [PMCID: PMC9062287 DOI: 10.1007/s40710-022-00577-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]
Abstract
The objective of this paper is to identify and analyze relevant research of index-based methods for the evaluation of climate change vulnerability and resilience of coastal areas. We searched, retrieved, classified and reviewed papers on climate-change hazards, impacts, vulnerability and resilience of coastal water systems and relevant infrastructure. For this, Scopus, Science Direct, Thompson-Reuters Web of Science, Google Scholar, PubMed and other relevant databases were used. The analysis of the state-of-the-art presented in this paper acknowledges that using vulnerability and resilience indices in climate vulnerability research is effective, providing a solid, efficient and user-friendly framework. However, selection of index variables should be part of a holistic as well as dynamic approach to identify not only areas in danger, but also the level of social vulnerability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charalampos Nikolaos Roukounis
- Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards and Proactive Planning & Laboratory of Reclamation Works and Water Resources Management, School of Rural, Surveying and Geoinformatics Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Heroon Polytechniou Str., 15780 Zographou, Athens Greece
| | - Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis
- Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards and Proactive Planning & Laboratory of Reclamation Works and Water Resources Management, School of Rural, Surveying and Geoinformatics Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Heroon Polytechniou Str., 15780 Zographou, Athens Greece
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5
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Coastal Migration Index for Coastal Flooding Events Increased by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change: Mexico and Cuba Case Studies. WATER 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/w13213090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
This paper presents a coastal migration index (CMI) useful for decision-making in the current scenario of sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change. The CMI includes coastal human population density, degree of urbanization, and coastal-flooding penetration. Quantitative and qualitative statistical techniques and the geographic information system ArcGIS View 9.0 were used. Further, a panel of fifteen international experts in coastal management issues was consulted to establish and validate the CMI. Results led to three index components based on 22 indicators. CMI was applied in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico and in Santiago de Cuba province, Cuba. According to CMI estimates, the risk levels associated with SLR for human settlements analyzed in Mexico and Cuba were 5.3% and 11.0%, respectively. The most severely affected communities will require resettlement. Meanwhile, the CMI determined that 15.8% of the Mexican territory studied will be able to withstand the effects of SLR through the management of engineering works that will protect human settlements. The CMI determined that 79.0%, in the case of Tamaulipas, as well as 89.0% of the Cuban territory, will not require new policies or guidelines to promote conservation and protection of coastal natural resources. Lastly, the method used allowed for creation of a CMI stoplight map useful to coastal decision-makers to adopt sound management actions.
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6
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Using Virtual Reality in Sea Level Rise Planning and Community Engagement—An Overview. WATER 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/w13091142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
As coastal communities around the globe contend with the impacts of climate change including coastal hazards such as sea level rise and more frequent coastal storms, educating stakeholders and the general public has become essential in order to adapt to and mitigate these risks. Communicating SLR and other coastal risks is not a simple task. First, SLR is a phenomenon that is abstract as it is physically distant from many people; second, the rise of the sea is a slow and temporally distant process which makes this issue psychologically distant from our everyday life. Virtual reality (VR) simulations may offer a way to overcome some of these challenges, enabling users to learn key principles related to climate change and coastal risks in an immersive, interactive, and safe learning environment. This article first presents the literature on environmental issues communication and engagement; second, it introduces VR technology evolution and expands the discussion on VR application for environmental literacy. We then provide an account of how three coastal communities have used VR experiences developed by multidisciplinary teams—including residents—to support communication and community outreach focused on SLR and discuss their implications.
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7
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Assessing Multi-Hazard Vulnerability and Dynamic Coastal Flood Risk in the Mississippi Delta: The Global Delta Risk Index as a Social-Ecological Systems Approach. WATER 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/w13040577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Abstract
The tight coupling of the social-ecological system (SES) of the Mississippi Delta calls for balanced natural hazard vulnerability and risk assessments. Most existing assessments have approached these components in isolation. To address this, we apply the Global Delta Risk Index (GDRI) in the Mississippi Delta at high-resolution census tract level. We assess SES spatial patterns of drought, hurricane-force wind, and coastal flood vulnerability and integrate hazard and exposure data for the assessment of coastal flood risk. Moreover, we compare current coastal flood risk to future risk in 2025 based on the modelled effects of flood depth, exposure, and changes in ecosystem area in the context of ongoing efforts under the 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan. Results show that the Master Plan will lead to decreases in risk scores by 2025, but the tracts that are currently the most vulnerable benefit less from risk reduction efforts. Along with our index output, we discuss the need for further advancements in SES methodology and the potential for catastrophic hazard events beyond the model parameters, such as extreme rainfall events and very strong hurricanes. Assessing SES risk components can lead to more targeted policy recommendations, demonstrated by the need for Master Plan projects to consider their unequal spatial effects on vulnerability and risk reduction.
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8
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Kutralam-Muniasamy G, Pérez-Guevara F, Elizalde-Martínez I, Shruti VC. Review of current trends, advances and analytical challenges for microplastics contamination in Latin America. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2020; 267:115463. [PMID: 32866877 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115463] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2020] [Revised: 07/24/2020] [Accepted: 08/18/2020] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Microplastics accumulation is an emerging environmental issue and a threat to marine life and human health. There is a growing number of investigations on the abundance and distribution of microplastics in different water bodies and biota worldwide, with relatively few studies conducted in Latin America, however, the current knowledge of microplastics sources, occurrence, transport, fate and potential impacts remains largely unexplored. This review presents the current trends and advances of microplastics on a lesser known region of the world by compiling the research performed to date in different environmental compartments. The sampling techniques and methods for microplastics extraction in the existing literature data are also summarized. Among 78 published studies reviewed, 34% of studies were from Brazil and 46% of studies have mainly focused on biota. The main findings showed that microplastics are not negligible across Latin America significantly varying in their distribution, with the prevalence of fibers comprising 62% of the total. Polyethylene, polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate and polystyrene have been identified as the most common polymer types, accounting for 80% of the total. Limited studies and lack of standardized methodologies render difficulties to establish fundamental information on microplastics abundance and types in most countries of this region. Therefore, this review will primarily serve as a baseline when evaluating the environmental relevance of microplastics in Latin America and would stimulate discussions focusing on this topic, calling for more research in future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gurusamy Kutralam-Muniasamy
- Department of Biotechnology and Bioengineering, Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados Del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Ciudad de México, Mexico
| | - Fermín Pérez-Guevara
- Department of Biotechnology and Bioengineering, Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados Del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Ciudad de México, Mexico; Nanoscience & Nanotechnology Program, Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados Del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Ciudad de México, Mexico
| | - I Elizalde-Martínez
- Instituto Politécnico Nacional (IPN), Centro Mexicano para La Producción Más Limpia (CMP+L), Av. Acueducto S/n, Col. Barrio La Laguna Ticomán, Del Gustavo A. Madero, C.P. 07340, México, D.F., Mexico
| | - V C Shruti
- Instituto Politécnico Nacional (IPN), Centro Mexicano para La Producción Más Limpia (CMP+L), Av. Acueducto S/n, Col. Barrio La Laguna Ticomán, Del Gustavo A. Madero, C.P. 07340, México, D.F., Mexico.
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9
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An Experimental Research on the Use of Recurrent Neural Networks in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping. ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/ijgi8120578] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Natural hazards have a great number of influencing factors. Machine-learning approaches have been employed to understand the individual and joint relations of these factors. However, it is a challenging process for a machine learning algorithm to learn the relations of a large parameter space. In this circumstance, the success of the model is highly dependent on the applied parameter reduction procedure. As a state-of-the-art neural network model, representative learning assumes full responsibility of learning from feature extraction to prediction. In this study, a representative learning technique, recurrent neural network (RNN), was applied to a natural hazard problem. To that end, it aimed to assess the landslide problem by two objectives: Landslide susceptibility and inventory. Regarding the first objective, an empirical study was performed to explore the most convenient parameter set. In landslide inventory studies, the capability of the implemented RNN on predicting the subsequent landslides based on the events before a certain time was investigated respecting the resulting parameter set of the first objective. To evaluate the behavior of implemented neural models, receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed. Precision, recall, f-measure, and accuracy values were additionally measured by changing the classification threshold. Here, it was proposed that recall metric be utilized for an evaluation of landslide mapping. Results showed that the implemented RNN achieves a high estimation capability for landslide susceptibility. By increasing the network complexity, the model started to predict the exact label of the corresponding landslide initiation point instead of estimating the susceptibility level.
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10
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Filho WL, Balogun AL, Olayide OE, Azeiteiro UM, Ayal DY, Muñoz PDC, Nagy GJ, Bynoe P, Oguge O, Yannick Toamukum N, Saroar M, Li C. Assessing the impacts of climate change in cities and their adaptive capacity: Towards transformative approaches to climate change adaptation and poverty reduction in urban areas in a set of developing countries. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 692:1175-1190. [PMID: 31539949 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2019] [Revised: 07/12/2019] [Accepted: 07/15/2019] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Many cities across the world are facing many problems climate change poses to their populations, communities and infrastructure. These vary from increased exposures to floods, to discomfort due to urban heat, depending on their geographical locations and settings. However, even though some cities have a greater ability to cope with climate change challenges, many struggle to do so, particularly in cities in developing countries. In addition, there is a shortage of international studies which examine the links between climate change adaptation and cities, and which at the same time draw some successful examples of good practice, which may assist future efforts. This paper is an attempt to address this information need. The aim of this paper is to analyse the extent to which cities in a sample of developing countries are attempting to pursue climate change adaptation and the problems which hinder this process. Its goal is to showcase examples of initiatives and good practice in transformative adaptation, which may be replicable elsewhere. To this purpose, the paper describes some trends related to climate change in a set of cities in developing countries across different continents, including one of the smallest capital cities (Georgetown, Guyana) and Shanghai, one the world's most populous cities. In particular, it analyses their degree of vulnerability, how they manage to cope with climate change impacts, and the policies being implemented to aid adaptation. It also suggests the use of transformative approaches which may be adopted, in order to assist them in their efforts towards investments in low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure, thereby maximizing investments in urban areas and trying to address their related poverty issues. This paper addresses a gap in the international literature on the problems many cities in developing countries face, in trying to adapt to a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Walter Leal Filho
- School of Science and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, United Kingdom; Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Research and Transfer Centre Sustainability and Climate Change Management, Faculty of Life Sciences, Ulmenliet 20, D-21033 Hamburg, Germany.
| | - Abdul-Lateef Balogun
- Geospatial Analysis & Modelling Research (GAMR) Group, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP), Malaysia.
| | | | | | - Desalegn Y Ayal
- Centre for Food Security Studies (CFSS), College of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia.
| | - Pastor David Chavez Muñoz
- GTR-PUCP, Department of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru, 1801 Avenida Universitaria San Miguel, 15088 Lima, Peru.
| | - Gustavo J Nagy
- Instituto de Ecología y CienciasAmbientales (IECA), Facultad de Ciencias (FC), Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Iguá 4225, Montevideo, Uruguay.
| | - Paulette Bynoe
- Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Leslie Cummings Building, University of Guyana, Guyana.
| | - Otienoh Oguge
- Centre for Advanced Studies in Environmental Law & Policy (CASELAP), University of Nairobi, PO Box 30197-00100, Nairobi, Kenya.
| | - N Yannick Toamukum
- Disaster Management Training Centre, School of Environmental Science and Technology, Ardhi University, P.O Box 35176, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Manchester Metropolitan University, UK.
| | - Mustafa Saroar
- Department of Urban & Regional Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, Bangladesh.
| | - Chunluan Li
- Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China; Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Research and Transfer Centre Sustainability and Climate Change Management, Faculty of Life Sciences, Ulmenliet 20, D-21033 Hamburg, Germany; School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China; Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Germany.
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Tauzer E, Borbor-Cordova MJ, Mendoza J, De La Cuadra T, Cunalata J, Stewart-Ibarra AM. A participatory community case study of periurban coastal flood vulnerability in southern Ecuador. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0224171. [PMID: 31652292 PMCID: PMC6814235 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2019] [Accepted: 10/06/2019] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Populations in coastal cities are exposed to increasing risk of flooding, resulting in rising damages to health and assets. Adaptation measures, such as early warning systems for floods (EWSFs), have the potential to reduce the risk and impact of flood events when tailored to reflect the local social-ecological context and needs. Community perceptions and experiences play a critical role in risk management, since perceptions influence people's behaviors in response to EWSFs and other interventions. METHODS We investigated community perceptions and responses in flood-prone periurban areas in the coastal city of Machala, Ecuador. Focus groups (n = 11) were held with community members (n = 65 people) to assess perceptions of flood exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and current alert systems. Discussions were audio recorded, transcribed, and coded by topic. Participatory maps were field validated, georeferenced, and digitized using GIS software. Qualitative data were triangulated with historical government information on rainfall, flood events, population demographics, and disease outbreaks. RESULTS Flooding was associated with seasonal rainfall, El Niño events, high ocean tides, blocked drainage areas, overflowing canals, collapsed sewer systems, and low local elevation. Participatory maps revealed spatial heterogeneity in perceived flood risk across the community. Ten areas of special concern were mapped, including places with strong currents during floods, low elevation areas with schools and homes, and other places that accumulate stagnant water. Sensitive populations included children, the elderly, physically handicapped people, low-income families, and recent migrants. Flood impacts included damages to property and infrastructure, power outages, and the economic cost of rebuilding/repairs. Health impacts included outbreaks of infectious diseases, skin infections, snakebite, and injury/drowning. Adaptive capacity was weakest during the preparation and recovery stages of flooding. Participants perceived that their capacity to take action was limited by a lack of social organization, political engagement, and financial capital. People perceived that flood forecasts were too general, and instead relied on alerts via social media. CONCLUSIONS This study highlights the challenges and opportunities for climate change adaptation in coastal cities. Areas of special concern provide clear local policy targets. The participatory approach presented here (1) provides important context to shape local policy and interventions in Ecuador, complimenting data gathered through standard flood reports, (2) provides a voice for marginalized communities and a mechanism to raise local awareness, and (3) provides a research framework that can be adapted to other resource-limited coastal communities at risk of flooding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erica Tauzer
- Institute for Global Health & Translational Science, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
| | - Mercy J Borbor-Cordova
- Facultad de Ingeniería Marítima y Ciencias del Mar, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral (ESPOL), Guayaquil, Guayas Province, Ecuador
| | - Jhoyzett Mendoza
- National Service for Risk Management and Emergencies, Guayaquil, Guayas Province, Ecuador
| | - Telmo De La Cuadra
- National Service for Risk Management and Emergencies, Guayaquil, Guayas Province, Ecuador
| | - Jorge Cunalata
- Universidad Tecnica de Machala, Machala, El Oro Province, Ecuador
| | - Anna M Stewart-Ibarra
- Institute for Global Health & Translational Science, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
- Department of Medicine, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
- InterAmerican Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), Montevideo, Department of Montevideo, Uruguay
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12
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Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts. JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/jmse6030076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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13
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Reguero BG, Beck MW, Bresch DN, Calil J, Meliane I. Comparing the cost effectiveness of nature-based and coastal adaptation: A case study from the Gulf Coast of the United States. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0192132. [PMID: 29641611 PMCID: PMC5894966 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 102] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2017] [Accepted: 01/17/2018] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Coastal risks are increasing from both development and climate change. Interest is growing in the protective role that coastal nature-based measures (or green infrastructure), such as reefs and wetlands, can play in adapting to these risks. However, a lack of quantitative information on their relative costs and benefits is one principal factor limiting their use more broadly. Here, we apply a quantitative risk assessment framework to assess coastal flood risk (from climate change and economic exposure growth) across the United States Gulf of Mexico coast to compare the cost effectiveness of different adaptation measures. These include nature-based (e.g. oyster reef restoration), structural or grey (e.g., seawalls) and policy measures (e.g. home elevation). We first find that coastal development will be a critical driver of risk, particularly for major disasters, but climate change will cause more recurrent losses through changes in storms and relative sea level rise. By 2030, flooding will cost $134–176.6 billion (for different economic growth scenarios), but as the effects of climate change, land subsidence and concentration of assets in the coastal zone increase, annualized risk will more than double by 2050 with respect to 2030. However, from the portfolio we studied, the set of cost-effective adaptation measures (with benefit to cost ratios above 1) could prevent up to $57–101 billion in losses, which represents 42.8–57.2% of the total risk. Nature-based adaptation options could avert more than $50 billion of these costs, and do so cost effectively with average benefit to cost ratios above 3.5. Wetland and oyster reef restoration are found to be particularly cost-effective. This study demonstrates that the cost effectiveness of nature-based, grey and policy measures can be compared quantitatively with one another, and that the cost effectiveness of adaptation becomes more attractive as climate change and coastal development intensifies in the future. It also shows that investments in nature-based adaptation could meet multiple objectives for environmental restoration, adaptation and flood risk reduction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Borja G. Reguero
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Michael W. Beck
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - David N. Bresch
- Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Juliano Calil
- Department of Ocean Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Imen Meliane
- The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
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