Water impacts of U.S. biofuels: Insights from an assessment combining economic and biophysical models

Publication bias in simulation model studies: The case of ethanol literature

In this study, we explore the potential for publication bias using market simulation results that estimate the effect of US ethanol expansion on corn prices. We provide a new test of whether the publication process routes market simulation results into one of the following two narratives: food-versus-fuel or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Our research question is whether model results with either high price or large land impact are favored for publication in one body of literature or the other. In other words, a model that generates larger price effects might be more readily published in the food-versus-fuel literature while a model that generates larger land use change and GHG emissions might find a home in the GHG emission literature. We develop a test for publication bias based on matching narrative and normalized price effects from simulated market models. As such, our approach differs from past studies of publication bias that typically focus on statistically estimated parameters. This focus could have broad implications: if in the future more studies assess publication bias of quantitative results that are not statistically estimated parameters, then important inferences about publication bias could be drawn. More specifically, such a body of literature could explore the potential that practices common in either statistical methods or other methods tend to encourage or deter publication bias. Turning back to the present case, our findings in this study do not detect a relationship between food-versus-fuel or GHG narrative orientation and corn price effects. The results are relevant to debates about biofuel impacts and our approach can inform the publication bias literature more generally.

Agricultural Land or Photovoltaic Parks? The Water–Energy–Food Nexus and Land Development Perspectives in the Thessaly Plain, Greece

Water, energy, land, and food are vital elements with multiple interactions. In this context, the concept of a water–energy–food (WEF) nexus was manifested as a natural resource management approach, aiming at promoting sustainable development at the international, national, or local level and eliminating the negative effects that result from the use of each of the four resources against the other three. At the same time, the transition to green energy through the application of renewable energy technologies is changing and perplexing the relationships between the constituent elements of the nexus, introducing new conflicts, particularly related to land use for energy production vs. food. Specifically, one of the most widespread “green” technologies is photovoltaic (PV) solar energy, now being the third foremost renewable energy source in terms of global installed capacity. However, the growing development of PV systems results in ever expanding occupation of agricultural lands, which are most advantageous for siting PV parks. Using as study area the Thessaly Plain, the largest agricultural area in Greece, we investigate the relationship between photovoltaic power plant development and food production in an attempt to reveal both their conflicts and their synergies.

Regenerating Agricultural Landscapes with Perennial Groundcover for Intensive Crop Production

The Midwestern U.S. landscape is one of the most highly altered and intensively managed ecosystems in the country. The predominant crops grown are maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr]. They are typically grown as monocrops in a simple yearly rotation or with multiple years of maize (2 to 3) followed by a single year of soybean. This system is highly productive because the crops and management systems have been well adapted to the regional growing conditions through substantial public and private investment. Furthermore, markets and supporting infrastructure are highly developed for both crops. As maize and soybean production have intensified, a number of concerns have arisen due to the unintended environmental impacts on the ecosystem. Many areas across the Midwest are experiencing negative impacts on water quality, soil degradation, and increased flood risk due to changes in regional hydrology. The water quality impacts extend even further downstream. We propose the development of an innovative system for growing maize and soybean with perennial groundcover to recover ecosystem services historically provided naturally by predominantly perennial native plant communities. Reincorporating perennial plants into annual cropping systems has the potential of restoring ecosystem services without negatively impacting grain crop production and offers the prospect of increasing grain crop productivity through improving the biological functioning of the system.