Estimating duration-distance relations in cycle commuting in the general population

Simulation of transient rolling resistance of bicycle tyres at various ambient temperatures

The range of an electrically assisted bicycle, which is constrained by the rider's cycling ability and the battery capacity, is heavily influenced by rolling resistance. Furthermore, the magnitude of rolling resistance affects commuters' motivation to decide whether to cycle or to choose another way to commute. This paper presents a way to simulate the transient rolling resistance of bicycle tyres as a function of ambient temperature. The significance of the change in driving resistance at different ambient temperatures is demonstrated through the range simulation of an electrically assisted bicycle at varying ambient temperatures. A representative driving cycle for bicycle commuters was created, enabling comparison of dynamic behaviour in a standardised set, to evaluate the effect of ambient temperature on the battery capacity and the increase in driving resistances. To the authors' knowledge, this kind of model has not previously been created for bicycles. The model calculates tyre temperature based on the heat transfer, considering the heating-i. e., rolling resistance-and cooling effects-i. e., convective and radiative cooling. The decrease in tyre temperature results in an increase in rolling resistance and a decrease in the battery capacity, which was considered in the simulations. The results show significantly increased energy demand at a very low ambient temperature (down to -30°C) compared to + 20°C. The novelty of this article is simulating energy expenditure of bicycle dynamically as a function of ambient temperature. This model includes a temperature-dependent transient bicycle rolling resistance model as well as a battery capacity model. The findings provide researchers with a better comprehension of parameters affecting energy expenditure of bicycles at different ambient or tyre temperatures. The models can be used as a tool during the design process of bicycles to quantify the required battery capacities at different climates. In addition, traffic planners can use the model to assess the effect of changes in infrastructure on motivation to utilise bicycles.

Overall health impacts of a potential increase in cycle commuting in Stockholm, Sweden

AIMS

To estimate the overall health impact of transferring commuting trips from car to bicycle.

METHODS

In this study registry information on the location of home and work for residents in Stockholm County was used to obtain the shortest travel route on a network of bicycle paths and roads. Current modes of travel to work were based on travel survey data. The relation between duration of cycling and distance cycled was established as a basis for selecting the number of individuals that normally would drive a car to work, but have a distance to work that they could bicycle within 30 minutes. The change in traffic flows was estimated by a transport model (LuTrans) and effects on road traffic injuries and fatalities were estimated by using national hospital injury data. Effects on air pollution concentrations were modelled using dispersion models.

RESULTS

Within the scenario, 111,000 commuters would shift from car to bicycle. On average the increased physical activity reduced the one-year mortality risk by 12% among the additional bicyclists. Including the number of years lost due to morbidity, the total number of disability adjusted life-years gained was 696. The amount of disability adjusted life-years gained in the general population due to reduced air pollution exposure was 471. The number of disability adjusted life-years lost by traffic injuries was 176. Also including air pollution effects among bicyclists, the net benefit was 939 disability adjusted life-years per year.

CONCLUSIONS

Large health benefits were estimated by transferring commuting by car to bicycle.

Potential for reduced premature mortality by current and increased bicycle commuting: a health impact assessment using registry data on home and work addresses in Stockholm, Sweden

Objectives

The study aims to make use of individual data to estimate the impact on premature mortality due to both existing commuter bicycling and the potential impact due to increased physical activity through shifting transport mode from car commuting to bicycling.

Methods

Using registry data on home and work addresses for the population of Stockholm County the shortest bicycling route on a network of bicycle paths and roads was retrieved. Travel survey data were used to establish current modes of commuting. The relation between duration of bicycling and distance bicycled within the general population in 2015 was established as a basis for identifying individuals that currently drive a car to work but were estimated to have the physical capacity to bicycle to work within 30 min. Within this mode-shift scenario from car-to-bike the duration of bicycling per week was estimated, both among current and potential bicycle commuters. The health impact assessment (HIA) on mortality due to bicycle commuting physical activity was estimated using the same relative risk as within the WHO Health Economic Assessment Tool.

Results

The current number of bicycle commuters were 53 000, and the scenario estimated an additional 111 000. Their mean bicycle distances were 4.5 and 3.4 km, respectively. On average these respective amounts of physical activity reduced the yearly mortality by 16% and 12%, resulting in 11.3 and 16.2 fewer preterm deaths per year.

Conclusion

The HIA of transferring commuting by car to bicycle estimated large health benefits due to increased physical activity.

Potential Effects on Travelers' Air Pollution Exposure and Associated Mortality Estimated for a Mode Shift from Car to Bicycle Commuting

This study aims to use dispersion-modeled concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and black carbon (BC) to estimate bicyclist exposures along a network of roads and bicycle paths. Such modeling was also performed in a scenario with increased bicycling. Accumulated concentrations between home and work were thereafter calculated for both bicyclists and drivers of cars. A transport model was used to estimate traffic volumes and current commuting preferences in Stockholm County. The study used individuals’ home and work addresses, their age, sex, and an empirical model estimate of their expected physical capacity in order to establish realistic bicycle travel distances. If car commuters with estimated physical capacity to bicycle to their workplace within 30 min changed their mode of transport to bicycle, >110,000 additional bicyclists would be achieved. Time-weighted mean concentrations along paths were, among current bicyclists, reduced from 25.8 to 24.2 μg/m³ for NOx and 1.14 to 1.08 μg/m³ for BC. Among the additional bicyclists, the yearly mean NOx dose from commuting increased from 0.08 to 1.03 μg/m³. This would be expected to yearly cause 0.10 fewer deaths for current bicycling levels and 1.7 more deaths for additional bicycling. This increased air pollution impact is much smaller than the decrease in the total population.

Perspectives on Exercise Intensity, Volume and Energy Expenditure in Habitual Cycle Commuting

Background: Knowledge about exercise intensity and energy expenditure combined with trip frequency and duration is necessary for interpreting the character and potential influencing capacity of habitual cycle commuting on e.g., health outcomes. It needs to be investigated with validated methods, which is the purpose of this study. Methods: Ten male and 10 female middle-aged habitual commuter cyclists were studied at rest and with maximal exercise tests on a cycle ergometer and a treadmill in the laboratory. During their normal commute in the Stockholm County, Sweden, their oxygen uptake, heart rate, energy expenditure, ventilation, blood lactate, rated perceived exertion, number of stops, durations, route distances and cycling velocities were monitored with validated methods. The frequency of trips was self-reported. Results: The relative exercise intensity was 65% of maximal oxygen uptake, and the energy expenditure was 0.46 kcal per km and kg body weight for both sexes. Sex differences in MET-values (men, 8.7; women 7.4) mirrored higher levels of cycling speed (20%), body weight (29%), oxygen uptake (54%) and ventilation (51%) in men compared to women. The number of METhours per week during peak cycling season averaged 40 for the men and 28 for the women. It corresponded to a total energy expenditure of about 3,500 and 1,880 kcal for men and women, respectively. The number of trips per year was about 370, and the annual distance cycled was on average 3,500 km for men and 2,300 for women. Conclusion: Cycle commuting is characterized by equal relative aerobic intensity levels and energy requirements for a given distance cycled by men and women. Based on an overall evaluation, it represents a lower range within the vigorous intensity category. The combined levels of oxygen uptake, durations and trip frequencies lead to high levels of METhours and energy expenditure in both men and women during both peak cycling season as well as over the year. Overall, the study presents a novel basis for interpreting cycle commuting in relation to various health outcomes.

Impacts on air pollution and health by changing commuting from car to bicycle

Our study is based on individual data on people's home and work addresses, as well as their age, sex and physical capacity, in order to establish realistic bicycle-travel distances. A transport model is used to single out data on commuting preferences in the County Stockholm. Our analysis shows there is a very large potential for reducing emissions and exposure if all car drivers living within a distance corresponding to a maximum of a 30min bicycle ride to work would change to commuting by bicycle. It would result in >111,000 new cyclists, corresponding to an increase of 209% compared to the current situation. Mean population exposure would be reduced by about 7% for both NO_x and black carbon (BC) in the most densely populated area of the inner city of Stockholm. Applying a relative risk for NO_x of 8% decrease in all-cause mortality associated with a 10μgm^-3 decrease in NO_x, this corresponds to >449 (95% CI: 340-558) years of life saved annually for the Stockholm county area with 2.1 million inhabitants. This is more than double the effect of the reduced mortality estimated for the introduction of congestion charge in Stockholm in 2006. Using NO₂ or BC as indicator of health impacts, we obtain 395 (95% CI: 172-617) and 185 (95% CI: 158-209) years of life saved for the population, respectively. The calculated exposure of BC and its corresponding impacts on mortality are likely underestimated. With this in mind the estimates using NO_x, NO₂ and BC show quite similar health impacts considering the 95% confidence intervals.