Development and validation of nomograms for predicting survival probability of patients with advanced adenocarcinoma in different EGFR mutation status

Generation and validation of a predictive model for estimating survival among patients with EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer

Although epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) have become the standard therapy for patients with EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), treatment outcomes vary significantly. Previous studies have indicated that concurrent mutations may compromise the effectiveness of first-line EGFR-TKIs. However, given the high cost of next-generation sequencing, this information is often inaccessible in routine clinical practice. A prediction model based on pre-treatment clinical characteristics may thus offer a more practical solution. This study established a nomogram based on pretreatment clinical characteristics to stratify patients according to optimal treatment strategies. We retrospectively reviewed 761 patients with EGFR-mutant NSCLC who received first- or second-generation EGFR-TKIs at a tertiary referral center between 2010 and 2019. The pretreatment clinical characteristics and progression-free survival data were collected. Using COX proportional hazard regression analysis, we constructed a nomogram based on seven clinically significant prognostic factors: sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, histology subtype, mutation subtype, stage, and metastasis to the liver and brain. Our nomogram could stratify patients into three groups with different risks for disease progression and was validated in a patient cohort from other hospitals. This risk stratification can provide additional information for determining the optimal first-line treatment strategy for patients with EGFR-mutant NSCLC.

Prognostic Impact of Pleural Effusion in Patients with Malignancy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The exact role of pleural effusion in the prognosis of cancer patients remains unclear. We aimed to systematically review the prognostic value of pleural effusion in patients with cancer. We performed a systematic review and meta‐analysis with a systematic literature search. All cohort studies with available overall survival (OS) and progression‐free survival (PFS) results for patients with cancer with or without pleural effusion were included. The Mantel–Haenszel method was used to calculate the pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity and publication bias were examined. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed. A total of 47 studies with 146,117 patients were included in the analysis. For OS, pleural effusion was a prognostic factor associated with a poor prognosis for patients with cancer (HR, 1.58, 95% CI, 1.43–1.75; I² 94.8%). In the subgroup analysis, pleural effusion was a prognostic factor associated with poor survival for patients with lung cancer (HR, 1.44, 95% CI, 1.35–1.54; I² 60.8%), hematological cancer (HR, 2.79, 95% CI, 1.63–4.77; I² 29.4%) and other types of cancer (HR, 2.08, 95% CI, 1.43–3.01; I² 55.1%). For PFS, pleural effusion was a prognostic factor associated with a poor prognosis for patients with cancer (HR, 1.61, 95% CI, 1.28–2.03; I² 42.9%). We also observed that massive pleural effusion was a prognostic factor associated with a poorer prognosis compared to minimal pleural effusion. Pleural effusion had prognostic value in both OS and PFS of patients with cancer, except for patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma, regardless of whether the malignant effusion was confirmed histologically or cytologically. However, future evidence of other pleural effusion characteristics is still needed.

Factors associated with overall survival in a population-based cohort of non- squamous NSCLC patients from northern New Zealand: A comparative analysis by EGFR mutation status

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have reported inconsistent results regarding the effect of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations on overall survival in patients with non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study assesses the effect of EGFR mutation on overall survival, and how the effects of other survival predictors differ by EGFR mutation status.

METHODS

The study used a population- based cohort of 1534 non-squamous NSCLC patients diagnosed in northern New Zealand between 1st February 2010 and 31st July 2017. Cox regression survival analyses were used to explore the associations between clinicopathological factors and overall survival by EGFR mutation status. The factors included were age at diagnosis, sex, ethnicity, smoking status, performance status, metastasis status and tumour site.

RESULTS

In this cohort, 20% had anEGFR mutation. The median overall survival times were 0.8 years and 2.79 years in EGFR-mutation-negative and -positive groups, respectively (p < 0.0001). Metastasis at diagnosis showed large effects on overall survival in both EGFR-mutation- negative (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.6) and mutation-positive (HR = 3.3) groups. In subgroup analyses by mutation status and metastasis, females had lower survival only if they were mutation-positive; Māori had lower survival (than European New Zealanders) only if the disease was metastatic, and tumour site had significant effects only in patients without metastasis. Age, performance status and smoking status showed consistent effects in all subgroups.

CONCLUSION

EGFR mutation status and metastasis are the main predictors for overall survival in non-squamous NSCLC patients. The effects of sex, ethnicity and tumour site vary depending on EGFR mutation and metastasis status.