A prognostic Bayesian network that makes personalized predictions of poor prognostic outcome post resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Expert Judgment Supporting a Bayesian Network to Model the Survival of Pancreatic Cancer Patients

Purpose: Pancreatic cancer is known for its poor prognosis. The most effective treatment combines surgery with peri-operative chemotherapy. Current prognostic tools are designed to predict patient outcomes and inform treatment decisions based on collected data. Bayesian networks (BNs) can integrate objective data with subjective clinical insights, such as expert opinions, or they can be independently based on either element. This pilot study is one of the first efforts to incorporate expert opinions into a prognostic model using a Bayesian framework. Methods: A clinical hybrid BN was selected to model the long-term overall survival of pancreatic cancer patients. The SHELF expert judgment method was employed to enhance the BN's effectiveness. This approach involved a two-phase protocol: an initial single-center pilot phase followed by a definitive international phase. Results: Experts generally agreed on the distribution shape among the 12 clinically relevant predictive variables identified for the BN. However, discrepancies were noted in the tumor size, age, and ASA score nodes. With regard to expert concordance for each node, tumor size, and ASA score exhibited absolute concordance, indicating a strong consensus among experts. Ca19.9 values and resectability status showed high concordance, reflecting a solid agreement among the experts. The remaining nodes showed acceptable concordance. Conclusions: This project introduces a novel clinical hybrid Bayesian network (BN) that incorporates expert elicitation and clinical variables present at diagnosis to model the survival of pancreatic cancer patients. This model aims to provide research-based evidence for more reliable prognosis predictions and improved decision-making, addressing the limitations of existing survival prediction models. A validation process will be essential to evaluate the model's performance and clinical applicability.

Exploring alternative approaches to precision medicine through genomics and artificial intelligence - a systematic review

The core idea behind precision medicine is to pinpoint the subpopulations that differ from one another in terms of disease risk, drug responsiveness, and treatment outcomes due to differences in biology and other traits. Biomarkers are found through genomic sequencing. Multi-dimensional clinical and biological data are created using these biomarkers. Better analytic methods are needed for these multidimensional data, which can be accomplished by using artificial intelligence (AI). An updated review of 80 latest original publications is presented on four main fronts-preventive medicine, medication development, treatment outcomes, and diagnostic medicine-All these studies effectively illustrated the significance of AI in precision medicine. Artificial intelligence (AI) has revolutionized precision medicine by swiftly analyzing vast amounts of data to provide tailored treatments and predictive diagnostics. Through machine learning algorithms and high-resolution imaging, AI assists in precise diagnoses and early disease detection. AI's ability to decode complex biological factors aids in identifying novel therapeutic targets, allowing personalized interventions and optimizing treatment outcomes. Furthermore, AI accelerates drug discovery by navigating chemical structures and predicting drug-target interactions, expediting the development of life-saving medications. With its unrivaled capacity to comprehend and interpret data, AI stands as an invaluable tool in the pursuit of enhanced patient care and improved health outcomes. It's evident that AI can open a new horizon for precision medicine by translating complex data into actionable information. To get better results in this regard and to fully exploit the great potential of AI, further research is required on this pressing subject.

Integrative Network Modeling Highlights the Crucial Roles of Rho-GDI Signaling Pathway in the Progression of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the most prevalent form of lung cancer and a leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Using an integrative approach, we analyzed a publicly available merged NSCLC transcriptome dataset using machine learning, protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks and bayesian modeling to pinpoint key cellular factors and pathways likely to be involved with the onset and progression of NSCLC. First, we generated multiple prediction models using various machine learning classifiers to classify NSCLC and healthy cohorts. Our models achieved prediction accuracies ranging from 0.83 to 1.0, with XGBoost emerging as the best performer. Next, using functional enrichment analysis (and gene co-expression network analysis with WGCNA) of the machine learning feature-selected genes, we determined that genes involved in Rho GTPase signaling that modulate actin stability and cytoskeleton were likely to be crucial in NSCLC. We further assembled a PPI network for the feature-selected genes that was partitioned using Markov clustering to detect protein complexes functionally relevant to NSCLC. Finally, we modeled the perturbations in RhoGDI signaling using a bayesian network; our simulations suggest that aberrations in ARHGEF19 and/or RAC2 gene activities contributed to impaired MAPK signaling and disrupted actin and cytoskeleton organization and were arguably key contributors to the onset of tumorigenesis in NSCLC. We hypothesize that targeted measures to restore aberrant ARHGEF19 and/or RAC2 functions could conceivably rescue the cancerous phenotype in NSCLC. Our findings offer promising avenues for early predictive biomarker discovery, targeted therapeutic intervention and improved clinical outcomes in NSCLC.

Analysis of Prognostic Factors of Rectal Cancer and Construction of a Prognostic Prediction Model Based on Bayesian Network

Background

The existing prognostic models of rectal cancer after radical resection ignored the relationships among prognostic factors and their mutual effects on prognosis. Thus, a new modeling method is required to remedy this defect. The present study aimed to construct a new prognostic prediction model based on the Bayesian network (BN), a machine learning tool for data mining, clinical decision-making, and prognostic prediction.

Methods

From January 2015 to December 2017, the clinical data of 705 patients with rectal cancer who underwent radical resection were analyzed. The entire cohort was divided into training and testing datasets. A new prognostic prediction model based on BN was constructed and compared with a nomogram.

Results

A univariate analysis showed that age, Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), Carbohydrate antigen19-9 (CA19-9), Carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125), preoperative chemotherapy, macropathology type, tumor size, differentiation status, T stage, N stage, vascular invasion, KRAS mutation, and postoperative chemotherapy were associated with overall survival (OS) of the training dataset. Based on the above-mentioned variables, a 3-year OS prognostic prediction BN model of the training dataset was constructed using the Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes method. In addition, age, CEA, CA19-9, CA125, differentiation status, T stage, N stage, KRAS mutation, and postoperative chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors of the training dataset through multivariate Cox regression and were used to construct a nomogram. Then, based on the testing dataset, the two models were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of ROC of the BN model and nomogram was 80.11 and 74.23%, respectively.

Conclusion

The present study established a BN model for prognostic prediction of rectal cancer for the first time, which was demonstrated to be more accurate than a nomogram.

Consensus Statement on Mandatory Measurements for Pancreatic Cancer Trials for Patients With Resectable or Borderline Resectable Disease (COMM-PACT-RB): A Systematic Review and Delphi Consensus Statement

Importance

Pancreatic cancer is the third most common cause of cancer death; however, randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of survival in patients with resectable pancreatic cancer lack mandatory measures for reporting baseline and prognostic factors, which hampers comparisons between outcome measures.

Objective

To develop a consensus on baseline and prognostic factors to be used as mandatory measurements in RCTs of resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancer.

Evidence Review

We performed a systematic literature search of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), PubMed, and Embase for RCTs on resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancer with overall survival as the primary outcome. We produced a systematic summary of all baseline and prognostic factors identified in the RCTs. A Delphi panel that included 13 experts was surveyed to reach a consensus on mandatory and recommended baseline and prognostic factors.

Findings

The 42 RCTs that met inclusion criteria reported a total of 60 baseline and 19 prognostic factors. After 2 Delphi rounds, agreement was reached on 50 mandatory baseline and 20 mandatory prognostic factors for future RCTs, with a distinction between studies of neoadjuvant vs adjuvant treatment.

Conclusion and Relevance

This findings of this systematic review and international expert consensus have produced this Consensus Statement on Mandatory Measurements in Pancreatic Cancer Trials for Resectable and Borderline Resectable Disease (COMM-PACT-RB). The baseline and prognostic factors comprising the mandatory measures will facilitate better comparison across RCTs and eventually will enable improved clinical practice among patients with resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancer.

Prognosticating Outcome in Pancreatic Head Cancer With the use of a Machine Learning Algorithm

Background: The purpose of this project is to identify prognostic features in resectable pancreatic head adenocarcinoma and use these features to develop a machine learning algorithm that prognosticates survival for patients pursuing pancreaticoduodenectomy. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 93 patients who underwent a pancreaticoduodenectomy was performed. The patients were analyzed in 2 groups: Group 1 (n = 38) comprised of patients who survived < 2 years, and Group 2 (n = 55) comprised of patients who survived > 2 years. After comparing the two groups, 9 categorical features and 2 continuous features (11 total) were selected to be statistically significant (p < .05) in predicting outcome after surgery. These 11 features were used to train a machine learning algorithm that prognosticates survival. Results: The algorithm obtained 75% accuracy, 41.9% sensitivity, and 97.5% specificity in predicting whether survival is less than 2 years after surgery. Conclusion: A supervised machine learning algorithm that prognosticates survival can be a useful tool to personalize treatment plans for patients with pancreatic cancer.

A Theoretical Paradigm for Evaluating Risk-Benefit of Status Epilepticus Treatment

Aggressive treatment of status epilepticus with anesthetic drugs can provide rapid seizure control, but it might lead to serious medical complications and worse outcomes. Using a decision analysis approach, this concise review provides a framework for individualized decision making about aggressive and nonaggressive treatment in status epilepticus. The authors propose and review the most relevant parameters guiding the risk-benefit analysis of treatment aggressiveness in status epilepticus and present real-world-based case examples to illustrate how these tools could be used at the bedside and serve to guide future research in refractory status epilepticus treatment.

G. H, Macleod A, Prasanth M, Zafar M, Hemadasa N, Neagle G, Rosindell I, Apollos J. A predictive Bayesian network that risk stratifies patients undergoing Barrett's surveillance for personalized risk of developing malignancy

BACKGROUND

Barrett's esophagus is strongly associated with esophageal adenocarcinoma. Considering costs and risks associated with invasive surveillance endoscopies better methods of risk stratification are required to assist decision-making and move toward more personalised tailoring of Barrett's surveillance.

METHODS

A Bayesian network was created by synthesizing data from published studies analysing risk factors for developing adenocarcinoma in Barrett's oesophagus through a two-stage weighting process.

RESULTS

Data was synthesized from 114 studies (n = 394,827) to create the Bayesian network, which was validated against a prospectively maintained institutional database (n = 571). Version 1 contained 10 variables (dysplasia, gender, age, Barrett's segment length, statin use, proton pump inhibitor use, BMI, smoking, aspirin and NSAID use) and achieved AUC of 0.61. Version 2 contained 4 variables with the strongest evidence of association with the development of adenocarcinoma in Barrett's (dysplasia, gender, age, Barrett's segment length) and achieved an AUC 0.90.

CONCLUSION

This Bayesian network is unique in the way it utilizes published data to translate the existing empirical evidence surrounding the risk of developing adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus to make personalized risk predictions. Further work is required but this tool marks a vital step towards delivering a more personalized approach to Barrett's surveillance.