Assessing the risk of ASFV entry into Japan through pork products illegally brought in by air passengers from China and fed to pigs in Japan

Data-driven risk assessment of the incursion of African swine fever virus via pig products brought illegally into South Korea by travelers based on the temporal relationship between outbreaks in China

Since 2018, Asian countries have been affected by the African swine fever (ASF) virus, with major socioeconomic consequences. Moreover, the number of people traveling in Asian countries has been increasing, leading to an inevitable increase in the risk of ASF spread through livestock products carried by travelers. China and South Korea have close geo-economic ties and numerous international travelers. After the ASF outbreak in China in 2018, many illegally imported pig products (IIPPs) that were confiscated from travelers from China at the port of entry in South Korea tested positive for ASF. The detection of ASF virus (ASFV)-positive IIPPs highlights the need to further assess the risk of incursion by travelers and review the existing prevention strategies. Here, we investigated the temporal relationship between ASF outbreaks in China and the detection of ASFV-positive IIPPs in randomly confiscated samples from all ports of entry, such as flights and ships to South Korea, from 2018 to 2019 using a cross-correlation analysis. Based on the significantly correlated temporal lags between the bivariate time-series data, a risk assessment model, using the Bayesian framework, was built to estimate the distribution of the parameters for the risk assessment model and the monthly probability of ASF being introduced via IIPPs from China to South Korea. ASF outbreaks in China were significantly associated with the detection of ASFV-positive IIPPs in South Korea 5 months later. Hence, the monthly probability of ASFV-infected pig products imported from China via a traveler to South Korea was estimated to be 2.00 × 10−5, corresponding to a 0.98 mean monthly probability of at least one ASF-infected pig product arriving at ports of entry via travelers, from 2018 to 2019. To our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to estimate the risk of ASF introduction via pig products carried by international travelers to all ports from neighboring countries in the Asian region using commonly exchanged observed data. The data presented in this study can be used to refine the intervention strategies to combat the spread of transboundary animal diseases.

Adenovirus-Vectored African Swine Fever Virus pp220 Induces Robust Antibody, IFN-γ, and CTL Responses in Pigs

African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) poses a serious threat to the pork industry worldwide; however, there is no safe vaccine or treatment available. The development of an efficacious subunit vaccine will require the identification of protective antigens. The ASFV pp220 polyprotein is essential for virus structural integrity. This polyprotein is processed to generate p5, p34, p14, p37, and p150 individual proteins. Immunization of pigs with a cocktail of adenoviruses expressing the proteins induced significant IgG, IFN-γ-secreting cells, and cytotoxic T lymphocyte responses. Four predicted SLA-I binding nonamer peptides, namely p34161−169, p37859−867, p1501363−1371, and p1501463−1471, recalled strong IFN-γ+ PBMC and splenocyte responses. Notably, peptide p34161−169 was recognized by PBMCs isolated from 7/10 pigs and by splenocytes isolated from 8/10 pigs. Peptides p37859−867 and p1501363−1371 stimulated recall IFN-γ+ responses in PBMCs and splenocytes isolated from 8/10 pigs, whereas peptide p1501463−1471 recalled responses in PBMCs and splenocytes isolated from 7/10 to 9/10 pigs, respectively. The results demonstrate that the pp220 polyprotein contains multiple epitopes that induce robust immune responses in pigs. Importantly, these epitopes are 100% conserved among different ASFV genotypes and were predicted to bind multiple SLA-I alleles. The outcomes suggest that pp220 is a promising candidate for inclusion in a prototype subunit vaccine.

A stochastic assessment to quantify the risk of introduction of African swine fever virus to Taiwan via illegal pork products carried by international travellers

The current study quantified the risk of releasing African swine fever virus (ASFV) into Taiwan from pork products illegally carried by international travellers from 157 countries or territories through six international airports and three international seaports. The association between various factors and the number of pork products detected by the border control authorities was also examined. The risk was estimated with a stochastic process after modelling the number of undetected illegal pork products, probability of pork product detection at international airports and seaports and probability of ASFV contamination of pork products from various countries. The overall annual probability of ASFV release to Taiwan was estimated to be 1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1-1] under no enhanced mitigation measures. All the median airport-level risks were higher than .921, and four of them reached 1. The total annual risk was .570 (95% CI: .109-.937) for international seaports. The country or territory level risk was estimated to be 1 for Vietnam, China, Hong Kong, the Philippines and South Korea, .999 (95% CI: .628-1) for Macao and .967 (95% CI: .359-1) for Indonesia. After the total number of travellers was factored in, the number of detected illegal pork products was the highest in January and February, and travellers from Vietnam [risk ratio to Japan (RR): 80.45; 95% CI: 58.68-110.3], the Philippines (RR: 37.67; 95% CI: 26.9-52.74) and Cambodia (RR: 28.39; 95% CI: 12.69-63.51) were most likely to bring pork products to Taiwan. Our study indicated a high risk of ASFV introduction through international travellers and also identified the factors associated with the risk. This information can be used as empirical evidence for cost-effective risk mitigation practices.

Is the COVID-19 pandemic impacting on the risk of African Swine Fever virus (ASFV) introduction into the United States? A short-term assessment of the risk factors

African swine fever (ASF) is a contagious disease with high mortality in domestic and feral swine populations. Although it is not a zoonosis, its spread may have severe socio-economic and public health consequences. The activities of veterinary services are essential for controlling ASF outbreaks within a country, but also for diminishing its threat of spread to neighbouring countries, and for recognizing its entry into countries that are currently free. ASF requires quick responses and permanent monitoring to identify outbreaks and prevent spread, and both aspects can be heavily undercut during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper analyses changing patterns of the main drivers and pathways for the potential introduction of ASFV into the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, including international movements of people, swine products and by-products. Data on commercial flights and merchant ships was used as a proxy to indirectly assess the flow of illegal products coming from ASF affected countries. Results from this study highlight a decreasing trend in the legal imports of swine products and by-products from ASF affected countries (Sen's slope = -99, 95% CI: -215.34 to -21.26, p-value < 0.05), while no trend was detected for confiscations of illegal products at ports of entry. Additionally, increasing trends were detected for the monthly number of merchant ships coming from ASF affected countries (Sen's slope = 0.46, 95%CI 0.25-0.59), the monthly value of imported goods ($) through merchant ships (Sen's slope = 1513196160, 95%CI 1072731702-1908231855), and the monthly percentage of commercial flights (Sen's slope = 0.005, 95%CI 0.003-0.007), with the majority of them originating from China. Overall, the findings show an increased connection of the United States with ASF affected countries, highlighting the risk posed by ASF during a global public health crisis.

Human food waste to animal feed: opportunities and challenges

By 2050, the demand for animal protein is estimated to increase by 70%. Concurrently, United Nations (UN) member countries have committed to reduce food waste by 50% by 2030. Moreover, even if the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change dietary-change recommendations are followed, measures to produce food and animal feed more efficiently will become increasingly important in creating a more sustainable food future. Currently, livestock animals consume over a third of global grain production. However, livestock animals, including insects, could function as efficient bioprocessors for converting unavoidable food waste into valuable animal protein. Establishing such a circular food system would simultaneously reduce both the negative environmental impacts of food waste going to landfill and intensive livestock production, as well as meet the need for increased livestock feed. To be successful in establishing a food waste to livestock feed industry, it will be critical to ensure that feed safety is appropriately regulated to prevent adverse animal health, welfare, biosecurity, food safety, economic, market access and food insecurity outcomes. Currently, regulatory frameworks in most industrialised countries either prohibit feeding of food waste to livestock or limit the wastes permissible. However, there is a growing body of knowledge showing that if the correct processing and safety measures are implemented, that food waste from retail and food service can be effectively and safety utilised in commercial production systems. The Japanese have developed a successful food waste to pig feed industry, based on both liquid and dry feeding systems, which is regulated and encouraged under national policy. They have developed licenced ‘Ecofeed’-branded products, and the pork industry has not been negatively affected by emergency animal diseases through this feeding practice. If other countries are to establish similar food waste to livestock feed industries, then strategies to mitigate food safety and biosecurity concerns will need to be developed and implemented. Regional techno-economic analysis will also be required to assess industry profitability and determine the potential investment required for new collection, storage and feed production infrastructure. Furthermore, legislation, based on scientifically robust research, will be required to incentivise food-waste producers and the livestock industry to actively engage and drive change.

Change in the ASF entry risk into Japan as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic

Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The monthly probability of ASF entering Japan through illegal importation of pig products from China was calculated to be 4.2% (90% prediction interval: 0.0%-24.9%) in January, 0.45% (0%-2.5%) in February, 0.03% (0%-0.2%) in March and 0.0002% (0%-0.001%) in April, 0.00005% (0%-0.0003%) in May and 0.0009% (0%-0.005%) in June 2020 indicating a significant decline in the risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a decrease in the number of air travellers from China and amount of restaurant food waste.