Public transportation and transmission of viral respiratory disease: Evidence from influenza deaths in 121 cities in the United States

The spatiotemporal trend of human brucellosis in China and driving factors using interpretability analysis

Human brucellosis has reemerged in China, with a distinct change in its geographical distribution. The incidence of human brucellosis has significantly risen in inland regions of China. To gain insights into epidemic characteristics and identify factors influencing the geographic spread of human brucellosis, our study utilized the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and interpretable machine learning techniques. The results showed a consistent upward trend in the incidence of human brucellosis, with a significant increase of 8.20% from 2004 to 2021 (95% CI: 1.70, 15.10). The northern region continued to face a serious human situation, with a gradual upward trend. Meanwhile, the western and southern regions have experienced a gradual spread of human brucellosis, encompassing all regions of China over the past decade. Further analysis using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) demonstrated that higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and increased funding for education have the potential to reduce the spread. Conversely, the expansion of human brucellosis showed a positive correlation with bed availability per 1000 individuals, humidity, railway mileage, and GDP. These findings strongly suggest that socioeconomic factors play a more significant role in the spread of human brucellosis than other factors.

Critical Role of the Subways in the Initial Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City

We studied the possible role of the subways in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during late February and March 2020. Data on cases and hospitalizations, along with phylogenetic analyses of viral isolates, demonstrate rapid community transmission throughout all five boroughs within days. The near collapse of subway ridership during the second week of March was followed within 1–2 weeks by the flattening of COVID-19 incidence curve. We observed persistently high entry into stations located along the subway line serving a principal hotspot of infection in Queens. We used smartphone tracking data to estimate the volume of subway visits originating from each zip code tabulation area (ZCTA). Across ZCTAs, the estimated volume of subway visits on March 16 was strongly predictive of subsequent COVID-19 incidence during April 1–8. In a spatial analysis, we distinguished between the conventional notion of geographic contiguity and a novel notion of contiguity along subway lines. We found that the March 16 subway-visit volume in subway-contiguous ZCTAs had an increasing effect on COVID-19 incidence during April 1–8 as we enlarged the radius of influence up to 5 connected subway stops. By contrast, the March 31 cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in geographically-contiguous ZCTAs had an increasing effect on subsequent COVID-19 incidence as we expanded the radius up to three connected ZCTAs. The combined evidence points to the initial citywide dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 via a subway-based network, followed by percolation of new infections within local hotspots.

Changes in car and bus usage amid the COVID-19 pandemic: Relationship with land use and land price

This study aimed to explore the impacts of COVID-19 on car and bus usage and their relationships with land use and land price. Large-scale trip data of car and bus usage in Daejeon, South Korea, were tested. We made a trip-chain-level data set to analyze travel behavior based on activity-based travel volumes. Hexagonal cells were used to capture geographical explanatory variables, and a mixed-effect regression model was adopted to determine the impacts of COVID-19. The modeling outcomes demonstrated behavioral differences between associated with using cars and buses amid the pandemic. People responded to the pandemic by reducing their trips more intensively during the daytime and weekends. Moreover, they avoided crowded or shared spaces by reducing bus trips and trips toward commercial areas. In terms of social equity, trips of people living in wealthier areas decreased more than those of people living in lower-priced areas, especially trips by buses. The findings contribute to the previous literature by adding a fundamental reference for the different impacts of pandemics on two universal transportation modes.

Public transport versus solo travel mode choices during the COVID-19 pandemic: Self-reported evidence from a developing country

A sharp decline in public transport use has been reported worldwide since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the virus spreads through close contacts, particularly in closed environments, public transport vehicles could be considered as hotspots for its transmission. However, public transport operations cannot be entirely stopped as many people in developing countries rely on them for their travel needs. This study aims to provide insights into people's travel mode choices during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data, i.e., 1,516 complete survey responses, were obtained through a questionnaire that was conducted in Lahore, Pakistan. A binary logistic model was developed using the collected data to model the likelihood of choosing solo or public transport modes during COVID-19. The results explained that the respondents preferred solo modes more than the public transport modes during the pandemic. Gender, income, education, profession, trip frequency, car ownership, motorbike ownership, and an underlying factor that was defined as “safety precautions” were found to be significant predictors of the public transport choice relative to solo modes. Females tend to choose public transport modes relative to solo modes as compared to males. Private vehicle (car or motorbike) owners were less likely to use public modes relative to solo modes when compared to those who do not own private vehicles. The outcomes of this study could be important for the government authorities, policymakers, and transport operators to understand the public transport use in developing countries during pandemics. Such information will be useful to devise regulations and preventive measures to control infectious diseases associated with public transport use, particularly in developing countries, where private transport options are limited.

Exploring the Traveler’s Intentions to Use Public Transport during the COVID-19 Pandemic While Complying with Precautionary Measures

Public transport use has drastically declined during the COVID-19 pandemic because the virus spreads through close contact with infected people and contaminated surfaces, especially in closed-environments. Evidence suggests that following the necessary safety guidelines can limit the spread of the virus, however, non-compliance to precautionary measures has been reported widely. Ignoring the precautionary measures may lead to quick transmission of the virus since public transport vehicles generally resemble closed-environments. This study explores people’s intentions to use public transport during the COVID-19 pandemic while adhering to precautionary measures. For this purpose, a total of 1516 useable responses were collected through a questionnaire survey conducted in Lahore, Pakistan. Regression models were developed to model the intentions to use public transport during the pandemic, to adhere to the precautionary measures while using public transport during the pandemic, and to use public transport while suffering from COVID-19 disease. The results of this study will help in understanding the intentions of the public transport users during the COVID-19 pandemic. It will also provide insights for policymakers and public transport operators about further necessary actions to promote safe public transport use during the current and any possible future pandemics. As public transport use declined during the pandemic, policy implications for alternative mobility options such as demand-responsive-transport (DRT) are also presented. Considering the study results, a policy interventions framework is proposed to promote the safe use of various public transport modes, particularly in developing regions.