Assessing required SARS-CoV-2 blanket testing rates for possible control of the outbreak in the epicentre Lusaka province of Zambia with consideration for asymptomatic individuals: A simple mathematical modelling study

Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review

Applied epidemiological models have played a critical role in understanding the transmission and control of disease outbreaks. Their utility and accuracy in decision-making on appropriate responses during public health emergencies is however a factor of their calibration to local data, evidence informing model assumptions, speed of obtaining and communicating their results, ease of understanding and willingness by policymakers to use their insights. We conducted a systematic review of infectious disease models focused on SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to determine: a) spatial and temporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 modelling in Africa, b) use of local data to calibrate the models and local expertise in modelling activities, and c) key modelling questions and policy insights. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and MedRxiv databases following the PRISMA guidelines to obtain all SARS-CoV-2 dynamic modelling papers for one or multiple African countries. We extracted data on countries studied, authors and their affiliations, modelling questions addressed, type of models used, use of local data to calibrate the models, and model insights for guiding policy decisions. A total of 74 papers met the inclusion criteria, with nearly two-thirds of these coming from 6% (3) of the African countries. Initial papers were published 2 months after the first cases were reported in Africa, with most papers published after the first wave. More than half of all papers (53, 78%) and (48, 65%) had a first and last author affiliated to an African institution respectively, and only 12% (9) used local data for model calibration. A total of 60% (46) of the papers modelled assessment of control interventions. The transmission rate parameter was found to drive the most uncertainty in the sensitivity analysis for majority of the models. The use of dynamic models to draw policy insights was crucial and therefore there is need to increase modelling capacity in the continent.

Assessment of COVID-19 Molecular Testing Capacity in Jordan: A Cross-Sectional Study at the Country Level

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic control measures rely on the accurate and timely diagnosis of infected individuals. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) remains the gold-standard method for laboratory diagnosis of the disease. Delayed diagnosis due to challenges that face laboratories performing COVID-19 testing can hinder public health control measures. Such challenges may be related to shortages in staff, equipment or materials, improper inventory management, flawed workflow, or long turnaround time (TAT). The aim of the current study was to assess the overall COVID-19 molecular testing capacity in Jordan as of April 2021. In addition, the study’s objectives included the identification of potential defects that could comprise the utility of the COVID-19 molecular testing capacity in the country. All laboratories certified by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Jordan to conduct molecular testing for SARS-CoV-2 were invited to participate in this study. Data were obtained from the participating laboratories (those which agreed to participate) by either telephone interviews or a self-reported written questionnaire with items assessing the key aspects of COVID-19 molecular testing. The full molecular testing capacity in each laboratory was self-reported considering 24 working hours. The total number of participating laboratories was 51 out of 77 (66.2%), with the majority being affiliated with MoH (n = 17) and private laboratories (n = 20). The total molecular COVID-19 testing capacity among the participating laboratories was estimated at 574,441 tests per week, while the actual highest number of tests performed over a single week was 310,047 (54.0%, reported in March 2021). Laboratories affiliated with the MoH were operating at a level closer to their maximum capacity (87.2% of their estimated full capacity for COVID-19 testing) compared to private hospital laboratories (41.3%, p = 0.004), private laboratories (20.8%, p < 0.001), and academic/research laboratories (14.7%, p < 0.001, ANOVA). The national average daily COVID-19 molecular testing was 349.2 tests per 100,000 people in April 2021. The average TAT over the first week of April 2021 for COVID-19 testing was 932 min among the participating laboratories, with the longest TAT among MoH laboratories (mean: 1959 min) compared to private laboratories (mean: 333 min, p < 0.001). Molecular COVID-19 testing potential in Jordan has not been fully utilized, particularly for private laboratories and those belonging to academic/research centers. Supply-chain challenges and shortages in staff were identified as potential obstacles hindering the exploitation of full molecular testing capacity for COVID-19 in the country.