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Li C, Zhang D, Pang X, Pu H, Lei M, Fan B, Lv J, You D, Li Z, Zhang T. Trajectories of Perioperative Serum Tumor Markers and Colorectal Cancer Outcomes: A Retrospective, Multicenter Longitudinal Cohort Study. EBioMedicine 2021; 74:103706. [PMID: 34801967 PMCID: PMC8605392 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2021.103706] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Revised: 11/02/2021] [Accepted: 11/03/2021] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The dynamic monitoring of perioperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is recommended by current colorectal cancer (CRC) guidelines, while the benefits of additional measurements of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) and carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) have remained controversial. Methods This retrospective longitudinal cohort included 3539 CRC patients who underwent curative resection. Distinct trajectory groups were identified by the latent class growth mixed model. Patients were grouped into subgroups jointly by CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 according to preoperative levels and longitudinal trajectories, respectively. The end points were overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Findings Three distinct trajectory groups were characterized for serum CEA, CA19-9, and CA125: low-stable, early-rising, and later-rising. Jointly, patients were grouped into six preoperative (trajectory) joint groups. Compared with the three-low group, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with death were 1.87 (1.29-2.70), 3.82 (2.37-6.17), 1.87 (0.97-3.61), 2.81 (1.93-4.11), and 4.99 (2.80-8.86) for the CEA-high, CA19-9-high, CA125-high, two-high, and three-high group, respectively. And compared with the three-stable trajectory group, the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) were 1.59 (1.10-2.30), 1.55 (0.77-3.10), 6.25 (4.02-9.70), 4.05 (2.73-6.02), and 12.40 (5.77-26.70) for the five rising trajectory groups, respectively. Similar associations between joint groups and RFS were observed. Notably, the trajectory joint group still had prognostic significance after adjusting for preoperative levels. The CA19-9-high group (HR: 3.82, 95% CI: 2.37-6.17) was associated with higher risk of death than the two-high group (HR: 2.81, 95% CI: 1.93-4.11). Likewise, for the CA125-rising trajectory group and two-rising trajectory group, the HRs (95% CIs) were 6.13 (3.75-10.00) and 3.99 (2.63-6.05) for death, and 3.08 (2.07-4.58) and 2.10 (1.52-2.90) for recurrence. Interpretation In addition to CEA, the dynamic measurements of CA19-9 and CA125 are recommended to monitor the prognosis of CRC patients. Funding National Natural Science Foundation of China [81973147, 82001986, 81960592, 82073569, 81660545].
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Affiliation(s)
- Chunxia Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, China; Institute for Medical Dataology, Shandong University, Jinan, 250002, China
| | - Dafu Zhang
- Department of Radiology, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan Cancer Hospital, Yunnan Cancer Center, Kunming, 650118, China
| | - Xiaolin Pang
- Department of Radiotherapy, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, China
| | - Hongjiang Pu
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan Cancer Hospital, Yunnan Cancer Center, Kunming, 650118, China
| | - Ming Lei
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan Cancer Hospital, Yunnan Cancer Center, Kunming, 650118, China
| | - Bingbing Fan
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, China; Institute for Medical Dataology, Shandong University, Jinan, 250002, China
| | - Jiali Lv
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, China; Institute for Medical Dataology, Shandong University, Jinan, 250002, China
| | - Dingyun You
- School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, 650500, China.
| | - Zhenhui Li
- Department of Radiology, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan Cancer Hospital, Yunnan Cancer Center, Kunming, 650118, China; Department of Radiology, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, 510080, China.
| | - Tao Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, China; Institute for Medical Dataology, Shandong University, Jinan, 250002, China.
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