Cure and death play a role in understanding dynamics for COVID-19: Data-driven competing risk compartmental models, with and without vaccination

Exploring Factors That Affected Student Well-Being during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comparison of Data-Mining Approaches

COVID-19-related school closures caused unprecedented and prolonged disruption to daily life, education, and social and physical activities. This disruption in the life course affected the well-being of students from different age groups. This study proposed analyzing student well-being and determining the most influential factors that affected student well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic. With this aim, we adopted a cross-sectional study designed to analyze the student data from the Responses to Educational Disruption Survey (REDS) collected between December 2020 and July 2021 from a large sample of grade 8 or equivalent students from eight countries (n = 20,720), including Burkina Faso, Denmark, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Russian Federation, Slovenia, the United Arab Emirates, and Uzbekistan. We first estimated a well-being IRT score for each student in the REDS student database. Then, we used 10 data-mining approaches to determine the most influential factors that affected the well-being of students during the COVID-19 outbreak. Overall, 178 factors were analyzed. The results indicated that the most influential factors on student well-being were multifarious. The most influential variables on student well-being were students' worries about contracting COVID-19 at school, their learning progress during the COVID-19 disruption, their motivation to learn when school reopened, and their excitement to reunite with friends after the COVID-19 disruption.

Access to care through telehealth among U.S. Medicare beneficiaries in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) public health emergency has amplified the potential value of deploying telehealth solutions. Less is known about how trends in access to care through telehealth changed over time.

Objectives

To investigate trends in forgone care and telehealth coverage among Medicare beneficiaries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

A cross-sectional study design was used to analyze the outcomes of 31,907 Medicare beneficiaries using data from three waves of survey data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey COVID-19 Supplement (Summer 2020, Fall 2020, and Winter 2021). We identified informative variables through a multivariate classification analysis utilizing Random Forest machine learning techniques.

Findings

The rate of reported forgone medical care because of COVID-19 decreased largely (22.89-3.31%) with a small increase in telehealth coverage (56.24-61.84%) from the week of June 7, 2020, to the week of April 4 to 25, 2021. Overall, there were 21.97% of respondents did not know whether their primary care providers offered telehealth services; the rates of forgone care and telehealth coverage were 11.68 and 59.52% (11.73 and 81.18% from yes and no responses). Our machine learning model predicted the outcomes accurately utilizing 43 variables. Informative factors included Medicare beneficiaries' age, Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility, ability to access basic needs, certain mental and physical health conditions, and interview date.

Conclusions

This cross-sectional survey study found proliferation and utilization of telehealth services in certain subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing important access to care. There is a need to confront traditional barriers to the proliferation of telehealth. Policymakers must continue to identify effective means of maintaining continuity of care and growth of telehealth services.

Usage of Compartmental Models in Predicting COVID-19 Outbreaks

Accurately predicting the spread of the SARS-CoV-2, the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic, is of great value for global regulatory authorities to overcome a number of challenges including medication shortage, outcome of vaccination, and control strategies planning. Modeling methods that are used to simulate and predict the spread of COVID-19 include compartmental model, structured metapopulations, agent-based networks, deep learning, and complex network, with compartmental modeling as one of the most widely used methods. Compartmental model has two noteworthy features, a flexible framework that allows users to easily customize the model structure and its high adaptivity that allows well-matured approaches (e.g., Bayesian inference and mixed-effects modeling) to improve parameter estimation. We retrospectively evaluated the prediction performances of the compartmental models on the CDC COVID-19 Mathematical Modeling webpage based on data collected between August 2020 and February 2021, and subsequently discussed in detail their corresponding model enhancement. Finally, we presented examples using the compartmental models to assist policymaking. By evaluating all models in parallel, we systemically evaluated the performance and evolution of using compartmental models for COVID-19 pandemic prediction. In summary, as a 100-year-old epidemic approach, the compartmental model presents a powerful tool that is extremely adaptive and can be readily customized and implemented to address new data or emerging needs during a pandemic.

Assessing the impact of vaccination in a COVID-19 compartmental model

BACKGROUND

The aim of this research is to understand the role played by vaccination in the dynamics of a given COVID-19 compartmental model. Most of all, how vaccination modifies the stability, sensitivity, and the reproduction number of a susceptible population.

METHODS

The proposed COVID-19 compartmental model (SVEIRD) has seven compartments. Namely, susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), exposed (E, infected but not yet infectious), symptomatic infectious (I _s ), asymptomatic infectious (I _a ), recovered (R), and dead by Covid-19 disease (D).We have developed a computational code to mimic the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic in a state like New York (NYS).

FINDINGS

First a stability analysis was carried out. Next, a sensitivity analysis showed that the more relevant parameters are birth rate, transmission coefficient, and vaccine failure. We found an alternative procedure to easily calculate the vaccinated reproductive number of the proposed SVEIRD model. Our graphical results allow to make a comparison between unvaccinated (SEIRD) and vaccinated (SVEIRD) populations. In the peak of the first wave, we estimated 21% (2.5%) and 6% (0.8%) of the unvaccinated (vaccinated) susceptible population was symptomatic and asymptomatic, respectively. At 180 days of the NYS pandemic, the model forecast about 25786 deaths by coronavirus. A vaccine with 95% efficacy could reduce the number of deaths from 25786 to 3784.

CONCLUSION

The proposed compartmental model can be used to mimic different possible scenarios of the pandemic not only in NYS, but in any country or region. Further, for an unvaccinated reproductive number R > 1, we showed that the vaccine's efficacy must be greater than the herd immunity to stop the spread of the COVID-19 disease.