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He C, Breitner-Busch S, Huber V, Chen K, Zhang S, Gasparrini A, Bell M, Kan H, Royé D, Armstrong B, Schwartz J, Sera F, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Honda Y, Jaakkola JJK, Ryti N, Kyselý J, Guo Y, Tong S, de'Donato F, Michelozzi P, Coelho MDSZS, Saldiva PHN, Lavigne E, Orru H, Indermitte E, Pascal M, Goodman P, Zeka A, Kim Y, Diaz MH, Arellano EEF, Overcenco A, Klompmaker J, Rao S, Palomares ADL, Carrasco G, Seposo X, Pereira da Silva SDN, Madureira J, Holobaca IH, Scovronick N, Acquaotta F, Kim H, Lee W, Hashizume M, Tobias A, Íñiguez C, Forsberg B, Ragettli MS, Guo YL, Pan SC, Osorio S, Li S, Zanobetti A, Dang TN, Van Dung D, Schneider A. Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis. BMJ 2024; 387:e080944. [PMID: 39384295 PMCID: PMC12036573 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2024-080944] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/17/2024] [Indexed: 10/11/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. DESIGN Two stage time series analysis. SETTING 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. POPULATION Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths from 1980 to 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Association between daily mortality and rainfall events with return periods (the expected average time between occurrences of an extreme event of a certain magnitude) of one year, two years, and five years, with a 14 day lag period. A continuous relative intensity index was used to generate intensity-response curves to estimate mortality risks at a global scale. RESULTS During the study period, a total of 50 913 rainfall events with a one year return period, 8362 events with a two year return period, and 3301 events with a five year return period were identified. A day of extreme rainfall with a five year return period was significantly associated with increased daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with cumulative relative risks across 0-14 lag days of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.11), 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), and 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), respectively. Rainfall events with a two year return period were associated with respiratory mortality only, whereas no significant associations were found for events with a one year return period. Non-linear analysis revealed protective effects (relative risk <1) with moderate-heavy rainfall events, shifting to adverse effects (relative risk >1) with extreme intensities. Additionally, mortality risks from extreme rainfall events appeared to be modified by climate type, baseline variability in rainfall, and vegetation coverage, whereas the moderating effects of population density and income level were not significant. Locations with lower variability of baseline rainfall or scarce vegetation coverage showed higher risks. CONCLUSION Daily rainfall intensity is associated with varying health effects, with extreme events linked to an increasing relative risk for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The observed associations varied with local climate and urban infrastructure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng He
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Susanne Breitner-Busch
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Medical Faculty, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
| | - Veronika Huber
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Medical Faculty, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Siqi Zhang
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Environment and Health Modelling Lab, Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Michelle Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
- School of Health Policy and Management, College of Health Sciences, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Dominic Royé
- Climate Research Foundation, CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G Parenti," University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Francesca de'Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, ASL ROMA 1, Rome, Italy
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, ASL ROMA 1, Rome, Italy
| | | | | | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | | | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, UK
| | - Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | | | - Ala Overcenco
- National Agency for Public Health of Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
| | - Jochem Klompmaker
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | - Shilpa Rao
- Norwegian institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Gabriel Carrasco
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | | | - Joana Madureira
- National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge, Portugal
- EPIUnit - Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Pública (ITR), Porto, Portugal
| | | | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of Biomedical Convergence Engineering, College of Information and Biomedical Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, Republic of Korea
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
- Ciberesp, Madrid, Spain
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
- Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, NTU College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Shih-Chun Pan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Shanshan Li
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
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