Modelling 30-day hospital readmission after discharge for COPD patients based on electronic health records

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is the third most common chronic disease in China with frequent exacerbations, resulting in increased hospitalization and readmission rate. COPD readmission within 30 days after discharge is an important indicator of care transitions, patient's quality of life and disease management. Identifying risk factors and improving 30-day readmission prediction help inform appropriate interventions, reducing readmissions and financial burden. This study aimed to develop a 30-day readmission prediction model using decision tree by learning from the data extracted from the electronic health record of COPD patients in Macao. Health records data of COPD inpatients from Kiang Wu Hospital, Macao, from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019 were reviewed and analyzed. A total of 782 hospitalizations for AECOPD were enrolled, where the 30-day readmission rate was 26.5% (207). A balanced dataset was randomly generated, where male accounted for 69.1% and mean age was 80.73 years old. Age, length of stay, history of tobacco smoking, hemoglobin, systemic steroids use, antibiotics use and number of hospital admission due to COPD in last 12 months were found to be significant risk factors for 30-day readmission of CODP patients (P < 0.01). A data-driven decision tree-based modelling approach with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization was developed. The mean precision-recall and AUC value for the classifier were 73.85, 73.7 and 0.7506, showing a satisfying prediction performance. The number of hospital admission due to AECOPD in last 12 months, smoke status and patients' age were the top factors for 30-day readmission in Macao population.

Long-Term Outpatient Care and Rehospitalizations in Patients after Cardiac Electrotherapy Device Implantation

Background and Objectives: Cardiovascular implantable electronic device (CIED) treatment is widely used in modern cardiology. Indications for this type of treatment are increasing. However, a significant proportion of CIED implantation patients require subsequent hospitalization for cardiovascular reasons. Older age and the associated complex clinical picture necessitate multidisciplinary outpatient specialist care for these patients. The aim of this study was to analyze the reasons for subsequent hospitalizations in the cardiology department and the impact of outpatient specialty care on these hospitalizations. To the best of our knowledge, there are no such studies in the available literature. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted on a population of patients treated with CIED. Reasons for subsequent hospitalizations were divided into clinically and statistically valid groups according to the main diagnosis. Using an electronic database, causes of hospitalization were determined based on this diagnosis. Using data on consultations at outpatient specialty clinics, a logistic regression model was created for the probability of subsequent hospitalization for cardiovascular causes according to the specialty of the clinic. Results: The 9-year follow-up included a population of 2071 patients treated with CIED. During the follow-up period, 508 patients (approximately 24.5%) required subsequent hospitalization for cardiovascular reasons. The most common leading causes were heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and coronary artery disease. The need for consultation at outpatient specialty clinics increased the likelihood of hospitalization. Moreover, the need to consult patients in nephrology outpatient, pulmonary disease outpatient, and orthopedic outpatient clinics was the most significant. Conclusions: The use of electronic implantable cardiovascular devices is a very important part of therapy in modern cardiology. The methods for their use are constantly being improved. However, they represent only one stage of cardiac treatment. After CIED procedures, patients require further care in both inpatient and outpatient specialty care settings. In this paper, we outline the reasons for subsequent hospitalizations and the importance of outpatient specialty care in this context. Effective organization of care after CIED procedures may be important in reducing the most expensive component of this care, that is, inpatient treatment.

Predicting and preventing hospital readmission for exacerbations of COPD

More than a third of patients hospitalised for acute exacerbation of COPD are readmitted to hospital within 90 days. Healthcare professionals and service providers are expected to collaboratively drive efforts to improve hospital readmission rates, which can be challenging due to the lack of clear consensus and guidelines on how best to predict and prevent readmissions. This review identifies these risk factors, highlighting the contribution of multimorbidity, frailty and poor socioeconomic status. Predictive models of readmission that address the multifactorial nature of readmissions and heterogeneity of the disease are reviewed, recognising that in an era of precision medicine, in-depth understanding of the intricate biological mechanisms that heighten the risk of COPD exacerbation and re-exacerbation is needed to derive modifiable biomarkers that can stratify accurately the highest risk groups for targeted treatment. We evaluate conventional and emerging strategies to reduce these potentially preventable readmissions. Here, early recognition of exacerbation symptoms and the delivery of prompt treatment can reduce risk of hospital admissions, while patient education can improve treatment adherence as a key component of self-management strategies. Care bundles are recommended to ensure high-quality care is provided consistently, but evidence for their benefit is limited to date. The search continues for interventions which are effective, sustainable and applicable to a diverse population of patients with COPD exacerbations. Further research into mechanisms that drive exacerbation and affect recovery is crucial to improve our understanding of this complex, highly prevalent disease and to advance the development of more effective treatments.