Support vector regression algorithm modeling to predict the parturition date of small - to medium-sized dogs using maternal weight and fetal biparietal diameter

Multilayer perceptron and support vector regression models for feline parturition date prediction

A crucial challenge in feline obstetric care is the accurate prediction of the parturition date during late pregnancy. The classic simple linear regression (SLR) model, which employed the fetal biparietal diameter (BPD) as the single input feature, was frequently applied for such prediction with limited accuracy. Since Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) are now two of the most potent scientific regression models, this study, for the first time, introduced such models as the new promising tools for feline parturition date prediction. The following features were candidate inputs for our models: biparietal diameter (BPD), litter size, and maternal weight. We observed and compared the performance results for each model. As the best-performed model, MLP delivered the highest coefficient score (0.972 ± 0.006), lowest mean absolute error score (1.110 ± 0.060), and lowest mean squared error score (1.540 ± 0.141), respectively. For the first time in this study, BPD, litter size, and maternal weight were considered the essential features for the innovative MLP and SVR modeling. With the optimized model parameters and the described analytical platform, further verification of these advanced models in feline obstetric practices is feasible.

Comparison of different predictive models on HFMD based on weather factors in Zibo city, Shandong Province, China

The early identification and prediction of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) play an important role in the disease prevention and control. However, suitable models are different in regions due to the differences in geography, social economy factors. We collected data associated with daily reported HFMD cases and weather factors of Zibo city in 2010~2019 and used the generalised additive model (GAM) to evaluate the effects of weather factors on HFMD cases. Then, GAM, support vectors regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) models are used to compare predictive results. The annual average incidence was 129.72/100 000 from 2010 to 2019. Its distribution showed a unimodal trend, with incidence increasing from March, peaking from May to September. Our study revealed the nonlinear relationship between temperature, rainfall and relative humidity and HFMD cases and based on the predictive result, the performances of three models constructed ranked in descending order are: SVR > GAM> RFR, and SVR has the smallest prediction errors. These findings provide quantitative evidence for the prediction of HFMD for special high-risk regions and can help public health agencies implement prevention and control measures in advance.

Comparison of two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) ultrasonography for gestational ageing in the early to mid-pregnant bitch

Accuracy of prediction of the day of parturition in the bitch decreases with advancing pregnancy. We hypothesized that three‐dimensional (3D) volume ultrasonography may be superior for gestational ageing than 2D measurements. Thirty‐two pregnancy examinations were performed in 25 bitches of different breeds 21–34 days after the first mating. Ovulation date from serum progesterone concentrations was estimated for 15 bitches, and parturition date was recorded for all dogs. Inner chorionic cavity (ICC) diameters and ICC length of the conceptus were measured by 2D B‐mode, and ICC volume by 3D ultrasonography (Voluson^® i, GE Healthcare). Linear or exponential regressions between ICC measurements and time, i.e. days after estimated ovulation or days before parturition, were performed with significance set at p < .05. ICC volume increased exponentially over time, while ICC diameter showed a linear growth. ICC volume had similar accuracy (R² = .718, p < .001) to ICC diameter and ICC length (R² = .707 and R² = .728, p < .001) when analysed in relation to days after estimated ovulation or in relation to days before parturition (R² = .818, R² = .800 and R² = .810, p < .001 respectively). There were strong (R² ≥ .875) significant associations between all ICC measurements. In conclusion, ICC volume did not improve canine gestational ageing accuracy, which supports the continued use of the ICC diameter, particularly in light of the difficulty in obtaining 3D measurements. On the basis of ICC volume, the growth of the canine conceptus appeared to be exponential already during the first half of pregnancy.